Transcript Slide 1

The State of the Church
in Washington
1990-2000
Dave Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
1
This is a Sample Presentation
It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the
Christian church in Washington, and what the complete “State
of the Church in Washington” Powerpoint looks like. The goal
is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and
discuss together the missional challenges in Washington that
the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is
available for immediate download at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UWA20.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
2
In 1996,
polls taken immediately after the Presidential election
revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted,
when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the
Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation
in activities that create acceptability within their social
group.
For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have
reported that around 45% of Americans attend church
every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual
attendance counts have shown that the
percentage of people attending church on any
given weekend is much lower than was previously
thought.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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The Intent
of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two
key questions:
“How Many People Really Attend Church in
Washington Every Week?”
“Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or
Backwards in Influence in Washington?”
As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of
factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in
Washington will begin to take©shape.
2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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This study
uses weekend church attendance as a more
reliable and more immediate snapshot of
Christian influence than membership. The
following map shows the percentage of the
population attending a Christian church on any
given weekend in all 50 states in 2000.
Washington has an average church attendance
percentage (14.0%) much lower than the
national average (18.7%).
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Percentage of Population Attending a Christian
Church on any Given Weekend 2000
11.8%
14.0%
NH
WA
17.5%
11.2%
13.2%
29.4%
MT
23.2%
ND
ME
VT
MN
14.5%
OR
14.4%
11.4%
24.6%
28.0%
ID
14.0%
NY
WI
SD
20.6%
WY
20.3%
CA
20.3%
15.2%
UT
IL
CO
22.7%
KS
AZ
21.7%
IN
WV
22.1%
MO
OK
NM
22.7%
NC
TN
25.0%
28.6% 16.0%
DC
DE
17.7%
MD
23.3%
SC
26.7%
MS
TX
18.0%
VA
KY
AR
19.1%
CT
NJ
17.4%
21.5%
22.0%
17.8%
16.0%
OH
23.5%
14.3%
17.2%
PA
IA
3.1%
NV
RI
20.5%
24.7%
NE
14.8%
20.1%
MI
23.8%
9.7%
MA
15.5%
26.9%
23.3%
GA
AL
29.4%
LA
15.1%
AK
15.1%
13.4%
HI
0.0% to 14.4%
14.4% to 17.5%
17.5% to 20.6%
20.6% to 23.5%
23.5% to 29.4%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
FL
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The Next Map
shows the percentage of the population
attending a Christian church on any given
weekend in 2000 for each county in
Washington.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Washington- Percentage of Population Attending a Christian Church on a Given Weekend by County - 2000
13.6%
Whatcom
6.6%
San Juan
8.1%
17.2%
8.8%
Skagit
6.0%
Okanogan
Ferry
Pend Oreille
10.0%
Stevens
11.3%
Island
12.1%
Clallam
11.0%
Snohomish
16.2%
Chelan
8.5%
Jefferson
12.4%
12.6%
11%
Kitsap
Kitsap
14.8%
Spokane
15.1%
Lincoln
Douglas
15.3%
King
9.5%
10.9%
Mason
12.0%
Grays Harbor
13.6%
Pierce
14.2%
Grant
Kittitas
21.1%
Adams
13.1%
Thurston
14.4%
Whitman
15.0%
12.6%
14.8%
Yakima
Lewis
Pacific
13.9%
13.5%
Wahkiakum
25.0%
Garfield
19.5%
Franklin
Benton
18.2%
Walla Walla
17.5%
Columbia
16.6%
Asotin
12.8%
Cowlitz
12.2%
Skamania
12.5%
12.7%
Klickitat
Clark
0.0% to 12.4%
12.4% to 14.8%
14.8% to 26.0%
The Next 2 Maps
show the population numbers for each county
in Washington. The first map shows the
population size of each county. The second
map shows the growth or decline in
population for each county from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Washington- 2000 Population by County
166,814
Whatcom
14,077
San Juan
11,732
102,979
39,564
Skagit
Okanogan
7,260
Ferry
71,558
Island
64,525
Clallam
Pend Oreille
40,066
Stevens
606,024
Snohomish
66,616
Chelan
25,953
Jefferson
32,603
231,969
Kitsap
417,939
Spokane
10,184
Lincoln
Douglas
1,737,034
King
49,405
67,194
Mason
33,362
Grays Harbor
700,820
Pierce
74,698
Grant
Kittitas
16,428
Adams
207,355
Thurston
40,740
Whitman
68,600
20,984
222,581
Yakima
Lewis
Pacific
142,475
3,824
Wahkiakum
2,397
Garfield
49,347
Franklin
Benton
55,180
Walla Walla
4,064
Columbia
20,551
Asotin
92,948
Cowlitz
9,872
Skamania
345,238
19,161
Klickitat
Clark
0 to 20,000
20,000 to 100,000
100,000 to 1,737,035
Complete Presentation has
Map of 2000 Population
Growth for Each County
The Next 2 Slides
show the ethnicity of Washington in 1990 and
2000. The third slide shows the growth or
decline in the percentage of the population
for each ethnic group.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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1990 Ethnicity of Washington
Non-Hispanic White
Hispanic
4%
Asian
4%
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
Asian
Non-Hispanic Black
3%
Non-Hispanic White
89%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Complete Presentation has
Graph of 2000 Ethnicity
Washington 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's Percentage of
the Population
76.9%
80.0%
60.8%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
27.4%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-9.2%
-20.0%
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Asian
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The Next Graph
shows the attendance numbers for the churches in
Washington in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals, Catholics
and Mainline denominations have all grown in
attendance. While overall worship attendance has
increased, the population has also grown. A more
reliable standard for evaluating increasing or
declining influence is the percentage of the
population attending church on any given weekend,
shown in the second graph. There was a slight
increase in the percentage of the population
attending Evangelical churches but, on the whole, the
percentage attending church in Washington has
decreased.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Washington Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000
900,000
827,981
800,000
702,214
700,000
600,000
464,809
500,000
375,941
400,000
300,000
152,823 156,199
200,000
171,329
204,851
100,000
© 2004 by David T. Olson
2000 Total
1990 Total
2000 Catholic
1990 Catholic
2000 Mainline
1990 Mainline
2000 Evangelical
1990 Evangelical
-
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship
Percentage by Category
The Next Graph
is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the
population at churches in each category in
2000. The “Absent” category indicates the
percentage of the population that is not
worshipping at a Christian church on any
given weekend. The second graph shows the
percentage gain or decline for each category
in Washington in 1990 and 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Washington State 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance
7.2%
2.6%
3.5%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Absent
86.7%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Washington - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population 1990-2000
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
2.1%
0.0%
-1.3%
-2.6%
-10.0%
-15.6%
-20.0%
-30.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Total
The 3 Next Charts
show the relative strength of the 8 major
denominational groups in Washington.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
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Complete Presentation has
Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by
Denominational Families
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Attendance by Denominational
Families
1990 & 2000 Increase or Decline in the Percentage of the Population
in a Christian Church on any Given Weekend by Denominational Family
8.7%
10.0%
5.5%
5.0%
0.0%
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
-5.0%
Reformed
-4.9%
Pentecostal
-6.1%
-7.2%
Christian
Catholic
Other
-10.0%
-11.0%
-14.5%
-15.0%
-16.8%
-20.0%
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
Reformed
Pentecostal
Christian
Catholic
Other
The Next Chart
shows the 1990 & 2000 average church
attendance by group for both this state and
the nation. The second chart shows the 1990
& 2000 population per church for this state
and the nation. Among states in 2000,
Arkansas has the lowest population per
church with 411 people per church, Utah is
the highest at 4,586 people per church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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1990 & 2000 Washington Average Church Attendance
900
794 794
800
700
657
600
540
500
1990 Washington
2000 Washington
1990 US Average
400
2000 US Average
300
200
142
165
162
124 131
186
172 175
121 125 112 115
100
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
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Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Population per Church
for State and Nation
The Next 3 Maps
show the attendance percentages for the
Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Washington in 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
for each County
Washington- Percentage of Population Attending a Catholic Church on a Given Weekend by County - 2000
2.3%
Whatcom
2.1%
San Juan
1.7%
5.4%
2.9%
Skagit
Okanogan
2.4%
Ferry
Pend Oreille
1.8%
Stevens
2.2%
Island
2.4%
Clallam
2.3%
Snohomish
3.7%
Chelan
2.2%
Jefferson
3.7%
2.3%
11%
Kitsap
Kitsap
3.8%
Spokane
3.1%
Lincoln
Douglas
4.7%
King
2.1%
3.2%
Mason
2.7%
Grays Harbor
2.6%
Pierce
4.4%
Grant
Kittitas
9.0%
Adams
2.5%
Thurston
3.4%
Whitman
2.4%
3.0%
4.7%
Yakima
Lewis
Pacific
3.2%
1.9%
Wahkiakum
5.9%
Garfield
9.8%
Franklin
Benton
3.5%
Walla Walla
1.4%
Columbia
2.4%
Asotin
2.2%
Cowlitz
2.1%
Skamania
2.3%
2.9%
Klickitat
Clark
0.0% to 2.3%
2.3% to 3.3%
3.3% to 10.8%
The Next Map
shows the growth or decline in the percentage
of the population attending a Christian church
on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for
each county. 12 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 27 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Christian Church Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
The Next 3 Maps
show the growth or decline of attendance percentages
for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Washington between 1990 and 2000.
For evangelicals, 18 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 21 counties declined. For mainline
churches, 3 counties grew in attendance percentage,
while 36 counties declined. For Catholics, 11 counties
grew in attendance percentage, while 28 counties
declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
Washington- Counties 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in Catholic
Churches on any Given Sunday
Blue = Decline Rose = Growth
-7.4%
Whatcom
-49.5%
San Juan
-18.5%
121.0%
-9.6%
Skagit
Okanogan
-7.0%
Ferry
Pend Oreille
-17.1%
Stevens
-17.1%
Island
-12.9%
Clallam
10.5%
Snohomish
-13.9%
Chelan
17.4%
Jefferson
-15.8%
-17.5%
Kitsap
-7.2%
Spokane
-6.6%
Lincoln
Douglas
7.3%
King
-0.3%
2.6%
Mason
-38.3%
Grays Harbor
-9.3%
Pierce
-0.3%
Grant
Kittitas
-11.2%
Adams
-0.8%
Thurston
2.1%
Whitman
-20.8%
66.3%
2.1%
Yakima
Lewis
Pacific
-30.1%
350.7%
Wahkiakum
0.6%
Garfield
-18.5%
Franklin
Benton
-5.8%
Walla Walla
-8.4%
Columbia
-8.1%
Asotin
-10.9%
Cowlitz
19.4%
Skamania
-1.3%
-35.8%
Klickitat
Clark
-100.0% to 0.0%
0.0% to 500.0%
The Final Chart
shows the net gain in the number of churches
in Washington in the past decade. There was
a net gain of 195 churches. However, 834
churches were needed to keep up with
population growth in Washington from 1990 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Increase in Number of Churches in Washington Between 1990 & 2000
834
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
195
211
200
-11
100
-5
0
-100
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Total Gain
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Increase Needed to
Maintain 1990 Ratio
of Churches to
Population
The State of the Church in
Washington . . .
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Because of strong population growth in Washington, the
church has both great opportunities and great challenges..
Although church attendance has grown for all three groups
numerically, the percentage of the population attending
Mainline and Catholic churches have decreased.
The percentage of the population attending church has
decreased, resulting in a 2.6% loss in the state-wide
percentage of the population that attended church between
1990 and 2000.
A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net
gain in the number of churches in Washington. Six hundred
and thirty-nine additional churches needed to have been
started in the previous decade to compensate for the decline
in percentage attendance.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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For More Information . . .



Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for
additional information on the American Church.
12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm
The complete Washington Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UWA20.htm

The Complete Seattle Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Seattle.htm

The Complete Spokane Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Spokane.htm

A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Washington and Birmingham Powerpoints) is
available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/WA0.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
42
Information on the
Information
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The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend
can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who
showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest
that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The
Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been
included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches.
This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the
average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on
the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as
accurate an estimate as possible.
Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches
than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the
1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along
with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making
numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from
1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar
dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size
nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular
attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a
simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of
Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other
religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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This Presentation
is based on a nationwide study of American church
attendance, as reported by churches and denominations.
The database currently has average worship attendances
for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual
churches.
It also uses supplementary information (actual membership
numbers correlated with accurate membership to
attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other
denominational and independent churches. All told,
accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox
Christian churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and
perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and
increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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For More Information . . .


Presentations such as this are available for the largest
100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the
nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to
show what is happening in the American church.
Presentations are available either by direct download,
CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org
for ordering information.
To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at
[email protected].
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
45