Transcript Slide 1
The State of the Church in Ohio 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 1 This is a Sample Presentation It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the Christian church in Ohio, and what the complete “State of the Church in Ohio” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss together the missional challenges in Ohio that the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UOH20.htm © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 2 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 3 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in Ohio Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Ohio?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Ohio will begin to take shape. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 4 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Ohio has an average church attendance percentage (20.3%) close to the national average (18.7%). © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 5 Percentage of Population Attending a Christian Church on any Given Weekend 2000 11.8% 14.0% NH WA 17.5% 11.2% 13.2% 29.4% MT 23.2% ND ME VT MN 14.5% OR 14.4% 11.4% 24.6% 28.0% ID 14.0% NY WI SD 20.6% WY 20.3% CA 20.3% 15.2% UT IL CO 22.7% KS AZ 21.7% IN WV 22.1% MO OK NM 22.7% NC TN 25.0% 28.6% 16.0% DC DE 17.7% MD 23.3% SC 26.7% MS TX 18.0% VA KY AR 19.1% CT NJ 17.4% 21.5% 22.0% 17.8% 16.0% OH 23.5% 14.3% 17.2% PA IA 3.1% NV RI 20.5% 24.7% NE 14.8% 20.1% MI 23.8% 9.7% MA 15.5% 26.9% 23.3% GA AL 29.4% LA 15.1% AK 15.1% 13.4% HI 0.0% to 14.4% 14.4% to 17.5% 17.5% to 20.6% 20.6% to 23.5% 23.5% to 29.4% © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use FL 6 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Ohio. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 7 17.4% 17.1% Ashtabula Lake 25.2% 19.8% Fulton Williams 25.7% 26.9% Defiance Henry 19.9% Lucas 20.7% Ottawa 17.2% Wood 19.8% 19.8% Sandusky Erie 25.5% 20.2% Seneca Paulding 47.5% 21.7% Allen 25.0% 25.8% Wyandot Crawford 21.7% Logan 17.1% Union Butler 26.3% 17.4% Stark Columbiana 23.0% Delaware 14.9% Madison 12.4% 15.8% 11.6% Fairfield Perry 17.3% Coshocton Harrison 16.2% Guernsey 11.2% Ross 21.3% Washington Vinton 13.0% 9.1% Pike 10.3% Meigs Jackson 14.6% Brown Morgan Athens 8.3% Highland 15.3% 29.8% Monroe 12.1% 12.4% Clinton Noble Hocking 16.4% 20.4% Belmont 17.7% 16.4% Pickaway 19.2% 12.7% 16.0% Adams Scioto 16.7% Gallia 14.2% 0.0% to 16.7% 16.7% to 20.3% 20.3% to 48.5% 15.5% 17.9% Muskingum Franklin 17.9% 24.7% Hamilton 23.5% Jefferson Tuscarawas Knox 17.6% 13.8% Fayette Clermont 11.6% Carroll 26.5% Holmes 15.7% Greene 17.3% Warren 23.9% Wayne 13.2% 21.4% 18.5% Portage 19.0% Licking Clark Montgomery 14.5% 22.4% Summit Ashland Morrow 12.5% Champaign 17.5% Preble Medina 20.3% Miami 14.9% 16.2% Huron 12.6% Marion 19.6% Darke 18.6% Richland 16.8% Mercer 27.7% Trumbull 22.0% 18.7% Hardin 26.7% Auglaize 23.9% Shelby 18.3% Lorain 25.7% Mahoning 17.6% 37.8% Cuyahoga 18.8% 20.8% Hancock Putnam Van Wert 17.3% Geauga 23.3% Lawrence Ohio Counties 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship in Christian Churches On any Given Sunday Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 8 The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Ohio. The first map shows the population of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000. Nineteen counties have declined in population over the last decade. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 9 227,511 102,728 Ashtabula Lake 42,084 39,188 Fulton Williams 39,500 29,210 Defiance Henry 455,054 Lucas 40,985 Ottawa 121,065 Wood 61,792 79,551 Sandusky Erie 58,683 20,293 Seneca Paulding 34,726 71,295 Putnam Hancock 108,473 Allen 22,908 46,966 Wyandot Crawford 40,924 Hardin 98,868 40,909 Union 559,062 Preble Montgomery Butler 111,564 378,098 112,075 Ashland Wayne Stark Columbiana 90,914 73,894 Jefferson Tuscarawas Knox 109,989 Delaware 144,742 40,213 Clark Madison 36,655 15,856 Coshocton Harrison 84,585 Muskingum Franklin 147,886 52,727 122,759 34,078 Fairfield Perry 28,241 Morgan 63,251 Washington Vinton Ohio Counties 2000 Population 23,072 27,695 Pike 15,180 Monroe Athens 12,806 Highland 177,977 Noble 62,223 73,345 Ross 70,226 Belmont 14,058 Hocking 40,543 Clinton 40,792 Guernsey 14,897 Pickaway 40,875 Clermont 28,836 Carroll 38,943 Holmes Licking 845,303 Hamilton Portage 52,523 1,068,978 28,433 Fayette 158,383 Warren 152,061 542,899 Summit 145,491 Greene 332,807 Medina Morrow 38,890 Champaign Miami 42,337 151,095 Huron 54,500 Logan Shelby Darke 59,487 31,628 Marion 46,005 53,309 Trumbull Richland 66,217 Mercer 47,910 225,116 Lorain 128,852 31,945 46,611 Auglaize Cuyahoga 284,664 257,555 Mahoning 29,659 Van Wert 90,895 Geauga 1,393,978 32,641 Meigs Jackson 42,285 Brown 27,330 79,195 Adams Scioto 31,069 Gallia 62,319 Lawrence 0 to 50,000 50,000 to 200,000 200,000 to 1,393,979 © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 10 Complete Presentation has Map of 2000 Population Growth for Each County The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of Ohio in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 12 1990 Ethnicity of Oklahoma Asian 1% Hispanic 1% Non-Hispanic Black 11% Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic Asian Non-Hispanic White 87% © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 13 Complete Presentation has Graph of 2000 Ethnicity Ohio 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's Percentage of the Population 68.6% 70.0% 57.2% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 12.8% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -3.6% -10.0% Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Asian 15 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Ohio in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals have grown numerically over the last decade. Mainline and Catholic groups and total attendance have declined numerically. As population changes, a more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. This graph reflects a significant decrease in the percentage of the population attending church, with the exception of Evangelical churches which has remained constant. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 16 Ohio Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000 2,424,695 2,500,000 2,308,563 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 912,723 926,901 958,828 804,975 571,354 529,038 500,000 © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 2000 Total 1990 Total 2000 Catholic 1990 Catholic 2000 Mainline 1990 Mainline 2000 Evangelical 1990 Evangelical - 17 Complete Presentation has Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship Percentage by Category The Next Graph is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Ohio in 1990 and 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 19 Ohio 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance 8.4% 4.7% 7.1% Evangelical Mainline Catholic Absent 79.7% © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 20 Ohio - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population 1990-2000 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.4% 0.0% -9.9% -10.0% -13.0% -20.5% -20.0% -30.0% Evangelical Mainline Catholic © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Total 21 The 2 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Ohio. Every group declined in percentage of the population attending except the Pentecostals. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 22 Complete Presentation has Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this state and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for this state and the nation. Among states in 2000, Arkansas has the lowest population per church with 411 people per church, Utah is the highest at 4,586 people per church. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 25 1990 & 2000 Ohio Average Church Attendance 877 900 805 794 794 800 700 600 500 1990 Ohio 2000 Ohio 1990 US Average 400 2000 US Average 300 186 180 172 175 200 130 135 124 131 118 114 112 115 100 Evangelical Mainline Catholic © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Total 26 Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Population per Church for State and Nation The Next 3 Maps show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Ohio in 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 28 Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage for each County Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage for each County 10.7% 7.1% Ashtabula Lake 5.3% 4.5% Williams Fulton 8.2% 5.7% Defiance Henry 7.3% Lucas 8.2% Ottawa 6.0% Wood 8.1% 7.9% Sandusky Erie Paulding 38.1% 4.8% Putnam Hancock 7.6% Allen 11.2% 6.6% Wyandot Crawford Mercer 5.6% Darke 5.6% 1.3% Logan 1.2% Union Columbiana Morrow 2.8% 1.7% Knox Delaware 1.8% Madison 1.2% 3.6% 2.7% Fairfield Perry 2.5% Coshocton Harrison Pickaway 1.1% 7.9% Belmont 6.9% Noble 3.6% Monroe Morgan 5.3% Hocking 2.6% Washington 2.5% 1.2% Clinton 2.9% Guernsey 1.0% Athens 0.5% Vinton 1.2% Highland 1.0% 0.3% 6.3% Pike 0.3% Meigs Jackson 2.8% Brown 0.6% Adams 1.3% Scioto 1.1% Gallia 2.0% 0.0% to 2.5% 2.5% to 6.0% 6.0% to 39.1% 1.3% 1.9% Muskingum Franklin Ross Clermont 12.1% Jefferson Tuscarawas 5.6% 3.9% 11.6% Hamilton 2.1% Carroll 0.4% 4.2% 0.7% Fayette 4.9% Warren 3.6% Stark 2.6% Greene 5.6% Butler 7.5% Licking Clark 6.9% Montgomery 2.5% Wayne Holmes 1.3% Champaign 3.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4% Marion Miami Preble 6.6% Portage 7.7% Summit Ashland Richland 2.4% 12.2% Shelby 5.8% Medina 3.5% 1.7% Hardin 11.4% Auglaize 26.5% 6.9% Trumbull 11.0% Mahoning 3.0% Van Wert 9.2% Lorain 5.8% Huron 13.3% Seneca 5.6% 8.4% Geauga 11.9% Cuyahoga Lawrence Ohio Counties 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship in Catholic Churches On any Given Sunday Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 31 The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 13 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 75 counties declined. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 32 Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Christian Church Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Ohio between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 42 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 46 counties declined. For Mainline churches, 2 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 86 counties declined. For Catholics, 13 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 75 counties declined. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 34 Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County -8.0% -26.0% Ashtabula Lake -10.6% -12.5% Fulton Williams -11.5% -15.4% Defiance Henry -18.7% Lucas -17.5% Ottawa -11.0% Wood -13.0% -18.4% Sandusky Erie -15.9% -3.4% Allen -17.0% Auglaize -7.7% -11.9% Wyandot Crawford -8.3% -55.2% Marion Logan -14.2% Union Butler Holmes -37.2% Delaware -32.1% Madison 29.8% Coshocton Harrison -60.2% Muskingum Franklin -12.0% -5.4% 17.6% -49.8% Fairfield Perry -45.6% Highland -34.3% Vinton Brown -39.7% Adams Morgan 1.9% Washington Athens Ohio Counties 1990 2000 Growth or Decline in Jackson Percentage of the Population at -30.2% -1.8% Scioto Worship in Catholic Churches Gallia On any Given Sunday 3.2% Lawrence Blue = Decline Rose = Growth © 2004 by David T. Olson Pike -61.2% -10.5% Monroe -3.6% -49.8% -10.4% Noble 20.4% -24.0% -45.5% -24.3% Belmont -24.6% Hocking -7.9% Clinton -38.9% Guernsey -36.5% Pickaway Ross Decline Increase -48.8% Licking -41.7% Fayette Clermont -11.6% Jefferson Tuscarawas Knox 191.7% -23.3% -17.1% Hamilton -60.1% Carroll -38.4% -20.3% Greene 39.4% Warren Columbiana Morrow -4.7% -7.1% -24.6% Stark -27.1% -52.0% Champaign Clark Montgomery -8.4% -20.0% -11.2% Preble -1.2% Wayne -20.5% Miami 8.5% Portage -36.3% Richland Shelby Darke -2.1% 2.2% Summit Ashland -2.5% -9.7% -11.4% Medina Hardin Mercer -9.4% -33.8% -16.1% Mahoning 10.2% 4.2% Trumbull -1.3% Hancock Putnam Van Wert -17.4% Lorain Huron Seneca Paulding Cuyahoga 2.1% -23.4% -4.2% -19.2% 30.5% Geauga -13.1% -73.4% Meigs Sample - Not for Public Use 37 The Final Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in Ohio in the past decade. There was a net loss of 207 churches. However, 607 churches were needed to keep up with population growth in Ohio from 1990 - 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 38 Increase in Number of Churches in Ohio Between 1990 & 2000 607 600 400 200 75 0 -57 -200 -207 -222 -400 Evangelical Mainline Catholic Total Gain © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Increase Needed to Maintain 1990 Ratio of Churches to Population 39 The State of the Church in Ohio . . . With the exception of Evangelical churches, church attendance has fallen numerically in Ohio. As a result of population growth, the percentage of the population attending church has decreased in all categories except Evangelicals, resulting in a significant 9.9% loss in the state-wide percentage of the population that attended church between 1990 and 2000. A major factor in the overall decline is the net loss in the number of churches in Ohio. Eight hundred and fourteen additional churches needed to have been started in the previous decade to compensate for the decline in percentage attendance. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 40 For More Information . . . Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church. 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm The complete Ohio Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UOH20.htm The Complete Cleveland Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Cleveland.htm The Complete Columbus Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Columbus.htm The Complete Cincinnati Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Cincinnati.htm The Complete Akron Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Akron.htm The complete Ohio Combo Pack is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/OH0.htm © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 41 Information on the Information The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline. Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled. African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible. Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches. In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located. Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study. This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 42 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches.1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 43 For More Information . . . Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering information. To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at [email protected]. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 44