Transcript Slide 1
The State of the Church in Indiana 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 1 This is a Sample Presentation It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the Christian church in Indiana, and what the complete “State of the Church in Indiana” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss together the missional challenges in Indiana that the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UIN20.htm © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 2 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 3 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in Indiana Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Indiana?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Indiana will begin to take shape. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 4 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Indiana has an attendance percentage (21.7%) that is higher than the average for the nation (18.7%). © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 5 Percentage of Population Attending a Christian Church on any Given Weekend 2000 11.8% 14.0% NH WA 17.5% 11.2% 13.2% 29.4% MT 23.2% ND ME VT MN 14.5% OR 14.4% 11.4% 24.6% 28.0% ID 14.0% NY WI SD 20.6% WY 20.3% CA 20.3% 15.2% UT IL CO 22.7% KS AZ 21.7% IN WV 22.1% MO OK NM 22.7% NC TN 25.0% 28.6% 16.0% DC DE 17.7% MD 23.3% SC 26.7% MS TX 18.0% VA KY AR 19.1% CT NJ 17.4% 21.5% 22.0% 17.8% 16.0% OH 23.5% 14.3% 17.2% PA IA 3.1% NV RI 20.5% 24.7% NE 14.8% 20.1% MI 23.8% 9.7% MA 15.5% 26.9% 23.3% GA AL 29.4% LA 15.1% AK 15.1% 13.4% HI 0.0% to 14.4% 14.4% to 17.5% 17.5% to 20.6% 20.6% to 23.5% 23.5% to 29.4% © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use FL 6 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Indiana. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 7 24.1% St Joseph 18.7% La Porte 15.9% Porter 23.3% Lake 22.2% Marshall 14.1% Starke 17.5% Newton 19.0% Cass 18.4% White 31.5% Benton 19.0% Carroll 18.1% Tippecanoe 25.9% Warren 21.8% Indiana Counties 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship in a Christian Church on any Given Sunday Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest 15.0% Vermillion 21.2% Parke 20.4% Tipton 21.5% Boone 18.8% Hamilton 19.5% Hendricks Putnam 17.9% Morgan 18.1% Vigo 20.6% Clay 17.2% Owen 21.6% Sullivan 22.4% Marion 16.8% 23.1% Shelby Johnson 29.7% 22.8% Knox 28.7% 28.1% Daviess Martin 25.6% Orange 13.9% Pike 20.7% Gibson 16.3% Posey 39.0% Dubois 22.9% Crawford 13.9% Warrick 18.8% Vanderburgh 18.3% Spencer 18.9% Perry 16.4% De Kalb 26.6% Allen 23.0% Henry 18.7% 20.6% 14.5% Fayette Union 27.2% Rush 13.8% Decatur 18.2% Franklin 28.8% 29.0% Ripley Dearborn 16.8% 21.8% 26.2% Scott 19.4% Randolph Wayne 17.5% Jennings Jackson 27.1% Washington 12.6% 26.8% Blackford Jay 17.0% 22.3% Delaware Madison 20.6% Hancock Greene 25.0% Lawrence 11.7% Noble 20.9% Whitley 24.1% 21.2% 19.4% Bartholomew Brown Monroe 25.5% 14.5% Steuben 21.4% Grant 27.6% Clinton 21.9% 30.6% Lagrange 31.2% 27.1% 22.8%WabashHuntington 36.4% 25.6% Miami Adams Wells Howard 24.8% Fountain 24.4% Montgomery 22.7% Kosciusko 22.7% Fulton 24.5% Pulaski 23.1% Jasper 23.9% Elkhart Jefferson Ohio 13.4% Switzerland 17.3% Clark 23.6% 21.3% Floyd Harrison 0.0% to 19.0% 19.0% to 23.3% 23.3% to 40.0% The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Indiana. The first map shows the population of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000. 11 counties declined in population. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 9 110,106 La Porte 484,564 146,798 Porter Lake 265,559 St Joseph 23,556 Starke 14,566 Newton 13,755 Pulaski 30,043 Jasper 148,955 Tippecanoe 37,629 Montgomery 17,241 33,866 Clinton 46,107 Boone 104,093 Parke 36,019 Hendricks Putnam 105,848 26,556 Vigo Clay 66,689 Morgan 21,751 73,403 Grant 84,964 Howard 33,157 14,957 120,563 Brown Bartholomew Monroe 41,335 29,820 10,369 Daviess Martin 19,306 Orange 12,837 Pike 32,500 Gibson 27,061 Posey 52,383 Warrick 171,922 Vanderburgh 39,674 Dubois 10,743 Crawford 20,391 18,899 Spencer Perry 14,048 21,806 Blackford Jay 118,769 27,401 133,358 Delaware Randolph 182,740 Madison Hamilton 48,508 71,097 Henry 55,391 Wayne 860,454 Hancock Marion 25,588 7,349 18,261 Fayette Union Rush 43,445 115,209 Shelby Johnson 22,151 71,435 45,922 Lawrence Knox 331,849 Allen 16,577 Tipton Greene 39,256 46,109 De Kalb 30,707 Whitley 21,786 Owen Sullivan 46,275 Noble 74,057 Kosciusko 20,511 Fulton Carroll 17,954 Fountain Indiana Counties 2000 Population 33,214 Steuben 20,165 8,419 Warren 16,788 Vermillion Marshall 34,909 Lagrange 38,075 34,960 Huntington 40,930 36,082 Wabash 27,600 33,625 Cass Miami Wells Adams 25,267 White 9,421 Benton 45,128 182,791 Elkhart Jackson 27,223 Washington 40,285 Decatur Franklin 26,523 24,555 Ripley Dearborn 27,554 5,623 Ohio Jennings 9,065 31,705 Jefferson Switzerland 22,960 Scott 96,472 Clark 70,823 34,325 Floyd Harrison 0 to 20,000 20,000 to 100,000 100,000 to 860,455 Complete Presentation has Map of 2000 Population Growth for Each County The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of Indiana in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 12 1990 Ethnicity of Indiana Asian 1% Hispanic 2% Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic Non-Hispanic Black 8% Asian Non-Hispanic White 89% © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 13 Complete Presentation has Graph of 2000 Ethnicity Indiana 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's Percentage of the Population 120.0% 105.1% 100.0% 79.6% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 13.1% 20.0% 0.0% -4.2% -20.0% Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Asian 15 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Indiana in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals have grown slightly in attendance, while Catholics and the mainline have declined. Unfortunately, while overall worship attendance has declined, the population has grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. This graph shows a significant decline in the percentage of the population attending church in Indiana. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 16 Indiana Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000 1,346,798 1,320,240 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 708,373 716,393 600,000 317,415 400,000 301,986 315,832 296,531 200,000 © 2004 by David T. Olson 2000 Total 1990 Total 2000 Catholic 1990 Catholic 2000 Mainline 1990 Mainline 2000 Evangelical 1990 Evangelical - Complete Presentation has Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship Percentage by Category The Next Graph is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Indiana in 1990 and 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 19 Indiana 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance 11.8% 5.0% 4.9% Evangelical Mainline Catholic Absent 78.3% © 2004 by David T. Olson Indiana - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population 1990-2000 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -8.4% -11.9% -15.3% -16.8% -20.0% -30.0% Evangelical Mainline Catholic © 2004 by David T. Olson Total The 2 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Indiana. The second chart shows that all groups have declined with the exception of the Christian denomination. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 22 Complete Presentation has Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this state and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for this state and the nation. Among states in 2000, Arkansas has the lowest population per church with 411 people per church, Utah is the highest at 4,586 people per church. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 25 1990 & 2000 Indiana Average Church Attendance 900 794 794 800 664 700 642 600 500 1990 Indiana 2000 Indiana 1990 US Average 400 2000 US Average 300 200 149 144 165 161 172 175 124 131 110 112 112 115 100 Evangelical Mainline Catholic © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Total 26 Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Population per Church for State and Nation The Next 3 Maps show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Indiana in 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 28 Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage for each County Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage for each County 6.7% Porter 8.5% Lake 11.3% St Joseph 7.4% La Porte 2.1% Starke 5.0% Newton 5.2% Jasper Marshall 2.0% Fountain 3.5% Boone 7.4% Hamilton 3.2% Parke Hendricks 0.8% Putnam 2.3% 0.9% Vigo Clay Knox 1.3% Morgan 8.1% Posey 6.8% Adams 3.4% Marion 2.1% 3.5% Blackford Jay 2.1% 2.2% Delaware Madison 1.9% Hancock 0.5% Henry 2.1% Wayne 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% Shelby Johnson 1.4% Randolph Rush 3.0% 2.2% Fayette Union 6.5% Franklin 3.6% Owen 2.0% Decatur 1.9% 2.8 9.4% Brown Bartholomew 9.2% % Monroe 1.7% Ripley Dearborn 2.5% Greene Ohio Jennings 0.9% 0.4% 1.5% 2.4% Jackson Lawrence Jefferson Switzerland 4.9% 12.7% 0.8% Daviess Martin Scott 0.6% 1.7% Pike 5.5% Warrick 9.0% Vanderburgh 8.2% Allen 0.4% 0.8% Orange 9.5% Gibson 2.0% Grant 3.6% Howard 3.3% Tipton 1.9% 0.5% 7.6% 3.4% De Kalb 6.3% 1.9% 2.4% Wabash Huntington 1.2% Miami Wells 1.7% Clinton Montgomery 0.9% 3.7% Noble 4.1% Whitley 1.8% Vermillion Sullivan 2.4% Steuben 1.5% Carroll 4.7% Tippecanoe 0.7% Warren Cass 2.5% White 1.0% Lagrange 3.0% Kosciusko 2.1% Fulton 3.1% 13.1% Benton Indiana Counties 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship in Catholic Churches on any Given Sunday Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest 6.0% Pulaski 4.9% 3.0% Elkhart 29.0% Dubois 0.4% Crawford 8.8% 9.1% Spencer Perry Washington 3.4% Clark 5.6% Floyd 4.9% Harrison 0.0% to 2.1% 2.1% to 3.7% 3.7% to 30.0% No data The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 27 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 65 counties declined. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 32 Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Christian Church Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Indiana between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 50 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 42 counties declined. For mainline churches, 7 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 85 counties declined. For Catholics, 9 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 81 counties declined. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 34 Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County -19.2% -26.9% St Joseph Elkhart 14.6% La Porte 19.2% -19.8% Lake -28.6% 26.1% Marshall Jasper 20.2% Kosciusko -35.0% -3.9% Pulaski Fulton Newton Cass -28.2% Benton -11.2% Carroll -0.4% Tippecanoe Warren Clinton -38.3% Vermillion -5.9% Whitley -35.3% Montgomery Boone -12.7% Adams -15.6% Grant -27.1% -22.1% Tipton -7.2% -14.1% Parke Hendricks Marion -21.0% -16.4% Vigo Clay -11.2% -14.9% Morgan Johnson -10.1% -1.9% 0.1% Brown -11.3% Jackson Jefferson Washington Orange Pike -13.8% Dubois -16.4% Posey -5.1% Vanderburgh -16.2% Spencer -15.2% Perry -25.1% Clark -49.0% Crawford -15.6% -4.1% Warrick -13.7% Scott -15.5% -27.4% Ripley -19.8% Lawrence -11.4% Martin 3.6% Harrison -9.7% Floyd Dearborn -4.4% -13.6% Jennings -8.7% 27.7% -35.1% Franklin Decatur Bartholomew Greene Daviess -5.7% 14.8% Fayette Union Rush -27.8% Monroe -28.8% -14.6% Wayne -17.0% Sullivan -16.4% Gibson -36.0% Henry Shelby -17.8% -12.5% 5.0% Randolph -5.9% -14.6% Owen -7.2% Knox -19.9% Delaware -17.0% Jay Hancock Putnam -1.9% -24.2% Blackford -9.3% Madison Hamilton -57.1% -1.1% -11.6% Wells -26.2% -24.5% De Kalb -15.0% Miami -14.9% Fountain -33.7% Noble -20.5% -7.9% Huntington Wabash -23.3% Howard -11.6% -18.0% Allen -35.8% -24.1% White Indiana Counties 1990-2000 Growth or Decline of Percentage of Population at Catholic Worship on any Given Sunday. Rose = Growth Blue = Decline -32.4% Steuben Porter -35.1% Starke -29.6% -8.0% Lagrange Ohio -60.9% Switzerland Decline Growth The Final Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in Indiana in the past decade. There was a net gain of 28 churches. However, 789 churches were needed to keep up with population growth from 1990 - 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 38 Increase in Number of Churches in Indiana Between 1990 & 2000 789 900 700 500 226 300 28 100 -14 -100 -186 -300 Evangelical Mainline Catholic © 2004 by David T. Olson Total Gain Increase Needed to Maintain 1990 Ratio of Churches to Population The State of the Church in Indiana . . . While church attendance increased only for Evangelicals, the percentage of the population attending church has declined for all groups. This resulted in a 12% loss in the state-wide percentage of the population that attended church between 1990 and 2000. A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in Indiana. Seven hundred and sixty-one additional churches needed to have been started in the previous decade to compensate for the decline in percentage attendance. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 40 For More Information . . . Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church. 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm The complete Indiana Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UIN20.htm The Complete Indianapolis Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Indianapolis.htm A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Indiana and Indianapolis Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/IN0.htm © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 41 Information on the Information The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline. Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled. African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible. Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches. In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located. Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study. This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 42 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches.1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 43 For More Information . . . Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering information. To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at [email protected]. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 44