Transcript Chapter 3 – Soil Analysis The State of the American Church

Chapter 3 – Soil Analysis
The State of the American Church
The Covenant Church Planting Movement and the
Desperate Need for your New Church
Go and make disciples pante ta ethne
1. You will understand the desperate need
for more churches
1. The Percentage of People that Attend a
Christian Church on any Given Weekend
is Far Below what Pollsters Report.
United States Percentage of the Population Attending
a Christian Church on any Given Weekend in 2006
17.3%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
9.0%
Evangelical
10.0%
Mainline
Catholic
Total
8.0%
5.3%
6.0%
2.9%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Evangelical
The American Church
Research Project
Mainline
Catholic
2
Total
© 2007 by David T. Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
Meanwhile, 52 million more people were
living in the United States.
Church Attendance in 1990 & 2006 Compared to
Population Growth 1990 - 2006
60,000,000
51,110,171
51,668,200
51,773,556
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
-
Church Attendance 1990
The American Church
Research Project
Church Attendance 2006
5
Population Growth 1990 - 2006
© 2007 by David T. Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
The Percentage of People Attending a
Christian Church each Weekend Decreased
Significantly from 1990 - 2006.
United States Percentage of the Population Attending
a Christian Church on any Given Weekend
25.0%
20.6%
18.7%
20.0%
17.3%
15.0%
1990
2000
9.4%
10.0%
2006
9.1% 9.0%
7.2%
6.2%
5.3%
3.9%
5.0%
3.3%
2.9%
0.0%
Evangelical
The American Church
Research Project
Mainline
Catholic
7
Total
© 2007 by David T. Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
The Rate of Evangelical Church Attendance
Growth has been Declining over the last
16 Years.
United States Evangelical Church Attendance Growth 1990 - 2006
1.0%
1.0%
0.8%
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.5%
0.6%
1990 - 2000
2000 - 2006
0.5%
2005 - 2006
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
1990 - 2000
The American Church
Research Project
2000 - 2006
2005 - 2006
10
© 2007 by David T. Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
Slightly more Churches Start each
Year than Close, but not Enough to
Keep up with Population Growth.
Churches Closed and Started and Net Gain each Year from 2000 to 2005
4,500
4,000
4,009
3,707
3,205
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
303
500
Closed Each Year
The American Church
Research Project
Started Each Year
Net Gain each Year
13
Gain Needed to Keep Up
with Population Growth
© 2007 by David T. Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
This is the Future Trajectory of the
American Church.
Percentage of Population Attending a Christian Church each Weekend
25.0%
20.4%
19.5%
20.0%
18.7%
17.5%
16.5%
15.5%
14.7%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1990
1995
The American Church
Research Project
2000
2005
14
2010
2015
2020
© 2007 by David T. Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
2. You will get acquainted with the reasons for
the success of the Covenant Church Planting
Movement
Distribution By Age Of Church
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1850s- 1870s
1860s
1880s
1890s
1900s
The American Church
Research Project
1910s
1920s
1930s
16
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
© 2007 by David T. Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
New Church Impact
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
The American Church
Research Project
20
© 2007 by David T. Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
We plant because people need Jesus:
Conversions per 100 attenders per year…
The average Evangelical Church
The average Covenant Church
The new Covenant Plant
3
7
12
Lyle Schaller “Church Planting is the closest thing to a
guaranteed method of evangelism known to man.”
Council of Superintendents Meeting, September 2005
First Year Average Size of New Churches
120
102
101
100
92
82
80
72
60
60
58
53
47
44
44
40
20
0
BGC
ECC
UMC
PCUSA
Council of Superintendents Meeting, September 2005
ELCA
LCMS
SBC
DC
C&MA
COGTN
COTN
Average Yearly Growth Rate of New Churches from Years 2 to 7
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
ECC
UMC
BGC
LCMS
Council of Superintendents Meeting, September 2005
ELCA
C&MA
DC
COGTN
COTN
PCUSA
COTB
New Church Attendance as a Percentage of Total Attendance
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
Council of Superintendents Meeting, September 2005
PCUSA
LCMS
UMC
ELCA
COTB
DC
COTN
SBC
CRC
C&MA
COGTN
BGC
0.0%
ECC
5.0%
4 Ways of Planting in ECC
•
•
•
•
Parent – ave size after 5 years = 345
Partners – ave size after 5 yrs = 148
Pioneer – ave size after 5 yrs = 45
Community-based – ave size… = 220
• Experience of Parent Churches after 5 yrs
(ncd)
– All chs who parent gain 28 new members per 100
– Churches who don’t help plant gain only 16…
– Healthy Churches who plant gain 64…
Council of Superintendents Meeting, September 2005
How we plant: the formula with the 5 “right” ingredients:
The right planter – called, competent, character…
Affirmed through the Assessment Center
+ The right Launch Team – chemistry between planter & team.
Strongest start with a parent church or strong partners
+ The right Training
+ A well-conceived project (a solid ministry plan)
Flowing from the right mission/vision
With the right steps – the 4-stage launch
Contextualized for your specific mission field
+ Good Coaching
= A healthy, missional, fruitful church plant
“batting average” .830 (survival rate after 10 years)
thrival rate: average size of 238 after 10 years.
The Top Ten List for Starting New Churches
1. New churches are needed because the large
majority of Americans do not attend a local
church.
2. New churches are more effective than
established churches at conversion growth.
3. New churches are the only truly effective way
to reach the growing ethnic populations in
America.
4. New churches are needed to stem the tide of
ideological moral erosion in America.
5. New churches have historically been the best
method for reaching each emerging new
generation.
The Top Ten List for Starting New Churches
6. New churches give a group of connected
churches market share and influence in their
community.
7. New churches grow exponentially faster than
established churches.
8. New churches are a test laboratory for church
leadership development.
9. New churches are the research and
development unit of God's Kingdom.
Most of the models and visions for healthy
churches are developed in new churches.
10. New churches provide excellent on-the-job
training for energetic young pastors.
3. You will understand the unique needs of the mission field in the
metro area Christ calls your team to plant in.
You need to be able to articulate why God wants this new church in your
community.
Look at the demographics for your specific Metro area from
www.theamericanchurch.org
Over a decade, here’s the attendance % in the following churches:
Evangelical_____
Mainline____ Catholic____ Overall_____
This means that on any given Sunday _________ % are not in any church in
our area.
Other observations:
What are the needs of people in your area that you could meet?
In 10 years, if there are fewer churches and fewer people attending church in
your area, then what would be the:
Impact on your community
Impact of families
Impact on individuals
What are the opportunities for your new church to impact your area with the
Gospel?
Preparing to Plant a New Church
Who will you reach?
Where do you want to plant and why?
Describe your ministry focus.
Describe the needs of the community.
Desired meeting location.
Include demographic studies of the region.
Additional Soil Analysis
Community Assessments
Strategic Planning