Transcript Slide 1

The State of the Church
in Tennessee
1990-2000
Dave Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
1
This is a Sample Presentation
It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the
Christian church in Tennessee, and what the complete “State
of the Church in Tennessee” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is
to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and
discuss together the missional challenges in Tennessee that
the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is
available for immediate download at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UTN20.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
2
In 1996,
polls taken immediately after the Presidential election
revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted,
when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the
Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation
in activities that create acceptability within their social
group.
For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have
reported that around 45% of Americans attend church
every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual
attendance counts have shown that the
percentage of people attending church on any
given weekend is much lower than was previously
thought.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
3
The Intent
of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two
key questions:
“How Many People Really Attend Church in
Tennessee Every Week?”
“Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or
Backwards in Influence in Tennessee?”
As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of
factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in
Tennessee will begin to take shape.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
4
This study
uses weekend church attendance as a more
reliable and more immediate snapshot of
Christian influence than membership. The
following map shows the percentage of the
population attending a Christian church on any
given weekend in all 50 states in 2000.
Tennessee has an average church attendance
percentage (23.5%) much higher than the
national average (18.7%).
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
5
Percentage of Population Attending a Christian
Church on any Given Weekend 2000
11.8%
14.0%
NH
WA
17.5%
11.2%
13.2%
29.4%
MT
23.2%
ND
ME
VT
MN
14.5%
OR
14.4%
11.4%
24.6%
28.0%
ID
14.0%
NY
WI
SD
20.6%
WY
20.3%
CA
20.3%
15.2%
UT
IL
CO
22.7%
KS
AZ
21.7%
IN
WV
22.1%
MO
OK
NM
22.7%
NC
TN
25.0%
28.6% 16.0%
DC
DE
17.7%
MD
23.3%
SC
26.7%
MS
TX
18.0%
VA
KY
AR
19.1%
CT
NJ
17.4%
21.5%
22.0%
17.8%
16.0%
OH
23.5%
14.3%
17.2%
PA
IA
3.1%
NV
RI
20.5%
24.7%
NE
14.8%
20.1%
MI
23.8%
9.7%
MA
15.5%
26.9%
23.3%
GA
AL
29.4%
LA
15.1%
AK
15.1%
13.4%
HI
0.0% to 14.4%
14.4% to 17.5%
17.5% to 20.6%
20.6% to 23.5%
23.5% to 29.4%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
FL
6
The Next Map
shows the percentage of the population
attending a Christian church on any given
weekend in 2000 for each county in
Tennessee.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
7
22.0%
23.9%
22.0%
24.5%
24.3%
28.4%
Lake
Obion
23.0%
Montgomery
Robertson
27.4%
Henry
14.8%
Cheatham
19.3%
26.8%
Gibson
30.5%
29.2%
Benton
Carroll
21.3%
24.7%
Haywood
Madison
Tipton
22.5%
Henderson
27.4%
29.9%
Perry
Decatur
Hickman
20.9%
19.5%
Williamson
Rutherford
23.7%
30.0%
24.7%
Shelby
Fayette
Hardeman
McNairy
Hardin
24.3%
Wayne
Jackson
Overton
Fentress
30.9%
27.1%
Lawrence
Giles
Morgan
White
20.1%
Bledsoe
14.8%
23.0%
Anderson
Grainger
22.7%
27.4%
Rhea
Loudon
19.5%
21.7%
23.8%
Greene
Jefferson
19.4%
Roane 23.4%
21.4%
Hamblen
25.0%
26.0%
25.5%
Knox
19.6%
Washington
Carter
25.2%
Unicoi
Cocke
Sevier
Blount
Meigs
25.8%
22.7%
McMinn
Monroe
Sequatchie
Moore
9.1%
21.9%
Johnson
Hawkins
19.1%
18.5%
Cumberland
Van Buren
16.9%
17.1%
Grundy
27.0%
Campbell
21.9%
29.1%
Cannon
Coffee
Scott
Sullivan
24.0%
Union
25.5%
Dekalb
26.9%
25.5%
Bedford
15.7%
14.4%
Warren
27.9%
22.2%
21.3%
30.2%
27.0%
Maury
Chester
17.0%
24.1%
Putnam
26.2%
Marshall
25.9%
22.3%
Smith
Wilson
27.2%
Lewis
19.6%
21.5%
Davidson
Dickson
Humphreys
22.3%
Crockett
22.2%
Lauderdale
24.4%
32.0%
28.9%
23.7%
Hancock
Claiborne
21.0%
Trousdale
16.5%
19.5%
Houston
30.6%
17.3%
Clay
22.6%
Macon
Sumner
23.9%
Dyer
19.8%
Stewart
26.4%
Weakley
24.8%
15.5%
Pickett
32.1%
25.4%
23.6%
15.9%
Lincoln
Franklin
Marion
28.5%
Hamilton
Polk
24.3%
Bradley
Tennessee - Counties - 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship in Christian
Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
0.0% to 22.0%
22.0% to 25.5%
25.5% to 33.1%
8
The Next 2 Maps
show the population numbers for each county
in Tennessee. The first map shows the
population of each county. The second map
shows the growth or decline in population for
each county from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
9
4,945
7,976
12,370
134,768
54,433
Montgomery
Robertson
32,450
Lake
Obion
31,115
34,895
Henry
Weakley
Sumner
35,912
8,088
Cheatham
Houston
43,156
37,279
17,929
48,152
Dyer
14,532
Gibson
29,475
16,537
Carroll
Benton
19,797
Haywood
Humphreys
25,522
11,731
Madison
Tipton
Perry
Decatur
Shelby
Fayette
28,105
Hardeman
Bedford
Marshall
Chester
28,806
37,586
91,837
69,498
25,578
McNairy
Hardin
16,842
Wayne
39,926
Lawrence
29,447
Giles
Scott
Campbell
Morgan
Grundy
5,740
Anderson
382,032
28,400
Rhea
Hamblen
11,086
Greene
Jefferson
71,170
Loudon
Washington
56,742
Carter
17,667
Unicoi
105,823
Cocke
Sevier
Blount
Meigs
26,767
38,961
McMinn
Monroe
Sequatchie
62,909
Knox
51,910
11,370
Moore
44,294
Roane 39,086
Bledsoe
14,332
71,330
107,198
58,128
33,565
Cumberland
Van Buren
12,367
48,014
Coffee
46,802
White
5,508
Cannon
Grainger
17,499
Johnson
Hawkins
20,659
17,808
Sullivan
53,563
Union
23,102
Dekalb
12,826
Warren
Maury
Fentress
17,423
38,276
Lewis
15,540
Overton
39,854
62,315
27,776
11,367
16,625
Putnam
Wilson
Rutherford
20,118
21,127
153,048
Hancock
Claiborne
19,757
Hickman
7,631
Henderson
24,653
17,712
Trousdale
Jackson
182,023
Williamson
10,984
88,809
Davidson
126,638
Macon
7,259
6,786
29,862
Clay
Smith
569,891
Dickson
22,295
Crockett
27,101
Lauderdale
897,472
130,449
Stewart
7,954
51,271
49,015
Pickett
307,896
31,340
39,270
20,386
Lincoln
Franklin
Marion
16,050
Hamilton
Polk
87,965
Bradley
Tennessee - Counties - 2000 Population
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
0 to 20,000
20,000 to 100,000
100,000 to 897,473
10
Complete Presentation has
Map of 2000 Population
Growth for Each County
The Next 2 Slides
show the ethnicity of Tennessee in 1990 and
2000. The third slide shows the growth or
decline in the percentage of the population
for each ethnic group.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
12
1990 Ethnicity of Tennessee
Asian
1%
Hispanic
1%
Non-Hispanic Black
16%
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
Asian
Non-Hispanic White
82%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
13
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 2000 Ethnicity
Tennessee 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's
Percentage of the Population
241.6%
250.0%
200.0%
150.0%
92.6%
100.0%
50.0%
4.7%
0.0%
-4.1%
-50.0%
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Asian
15
The Next Graph
shows the attendance numbers for the churches in
Tennessee in 1990 and 2000. All groups have grown
numerically over the last decade. However, as
attendance grew, population also grew. A more
reliable standard for evaluating increasing or
declining influence is the percentage of the
population attending church on any given weekend,
shown in the second graph. This graph reflects a
significant decrease in the percentage of the
population attending church, with the exception of
Catholic churches.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
16
Tennessee Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000
1,336,835
1,400,000
1,261,836
1,200,000
1,039,010
981,399
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
207,116
207,445
200,000
71,672
88,731
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
2000 Total
1990 Total
2000 Catholic
1990 Catholic
2000 Mainline
1990 Mainline
2000 Evangelical
1990 Evangelical
-
17
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship
Percentage by Category
The Next Graph
is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the
population at churches in each category in
2000. The “Absent” category indicates the
percentage of the population that is not
worshipping at a Christian church on any
given weekend. The second graph shows the
percentage gain or decline for each category
in Tennessee in 1990 and 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
19
Tennessee 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance
Evangelical, 18.3%
Mainline, 3.6%
Catholic, 1.6%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Absent
Absent, 76.5%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
20
Tennessee - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population - 1990 & 2000
30.0%
20.0%
5.8%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-10.2%
-10.1%
-16.5%
-20.0%
-30.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
21
The 2 Next Charts
show the relative strength of the 8 major
denominational groups in Tennessee. The
first chart illustrates the dominant influence
of the Baptist church. The second chart
shows change in the percentage of the
population attending churches by
denomination over the last decade.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
22
Complete Presentation has
Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by
Denominational Families
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Attendance by Denominational
Families
The Next Chart
shows the 1990 & 2000 average church
attendance by group for both this state and
the nation. The second chart shows the 1990
& 2000 population per church for this state
and the nation. Among states in 2000,
Arkansas has the lowest population per
church with 411 people per church, Utah is
the highest at 4,586 people per church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
25
1990 & 2000 Tennessee Average Church Attendance
900
794 794
800
700
584
600
505
500
1990 Tennessee
2000 Tennessee
1990 US Average
400
2000 US Average
300
172 175
200
120 123 124 131
90
97
119 124
112 115
100
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
26
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Population per Church
for State and Nation
The Next 3 Maps
show the attendance percentages for the
Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Tennessee in 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
28
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
for each County
0.3%
0.4%
1.8%
1.1%
0.3%
Macon
Clay
0.9%
Montgomery
Robertson
0.9%
Lake
0.4%
Obion
2.2%
1.2%
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
Dyer
0.2%
Gibson
Lauderdale
5.1%
Henderson
1.7%
Tipton
Hickman
0.5%
Perry
Decatur
0.4%
Williamson
0.8%
0.4%
Shelby
Fayette
0.2%
Hardeman
0.4%
0.7%
McNairy
Hardin
Wayne
2.1%
Lawrence
Giles
Morgan
0.4%
0.6%
Sullivan
0.1%
0.2%
Grainger
2.4%
Anderson
Bledsoe
Carter
Unicoi
Cocke
0.8%
Loudon
0.7%
Rhea
Washington
Jefferson
1.1%
Roane
0.6%
Greene
0.2%
Cannon
Van Buren
2.0%
1.0%
1.1%
Hamblen
0.4%
Knox
0.3%
Cumberland
White
0.4%
0.2%
Johnson
Hawkins
Campbell
1.8%
0.4%
Dekalb
0.3%
1.4%
Bedford
0.3%
0.1%
Hancock
Union
Warren
0.5%
Scott
Fentress
0.3%
0.4%
Marshall
0.2%
Overton
Putnam
2.3%
Chester
3.0%
Rutherford
Maury
Lewis
0.0%
1.5%
0.2%
0.1%
1.1%
Smith
Wilson
Dickson
0.6%
Madison
1.9%
Davidson
Humphreys
0.5%
0.2%
Haywood
Benton
Carroll
Crockett
0.1%
1.1%
0.2%
Jackson
Cheatham
Houston
0.3%
Trousdale
1.2%
0.8%
Henry
0.1%
Claiborne
0.6%
Sumner
1.7%
Weakley
0.4%
1.5%
Stewart
0.0%
Pickett
0.8%
Sevier
Blount
Meigs
0.6%
0.1%
McMinn
Monroe
0.3%
Coffee
Grundy
Sequatchie
Moore
1.6%
0.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Lincoln
Franklin
Marion
0.2%
Hamilton
Polk
1.0%
Bradley
Tennessee - Counties - 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship in Catholic
Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
0.0% to 1.0%
1.0% to 2.0%
2.0% to 6.1%
No data
31
The Next Map
shows the growth or decline in the percentage
of the population attending a Christian church
on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for
each county. 20 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 75 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
32
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Christian Church Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
The Next 3 Maps
show the growth or decline of attendance percentages
for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Tennessee between 1990 and 2000.
For evangelicals, 22 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 73 counties declined. For Mainline
churches, 11 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 83 counties declined. For Catholics,
49 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 29
counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
34
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
-28.9%
-51.7%
41.6%
118.2%
107.6%
Montgomery
Robertson
13.2%
Stewart
-100.0%
48.2%
Lake
6.6%
-31.3%
Obion
Henry
Weakley
36.3%
293.7%
Houston
Cheatham
-0.4%
-24.2%
60.3%
Dyer
61.0%
Gibson
Lauderdale
-39.1%
Haywood
70.2%
5.1%
Madison
Tipton
Perry
Decatur
109.0%
11.0%
62.8%
Chester
12.2%
-61.8%
14.5%
-22.0%
Shelby
Fayette
Hardeman
McNairy
Hardin
86.2%
Wayne
11.3%
0.5%
Lawrence
Giles
2.0%
Anderson
24.7%
Van Buren
Bledsoe
Grundy
Carter
Greene
Unicoi
35.6%
Cocke
Sevier
Blount
Meigs
49.8%
McMinn
Sequatchie
Moore
Washington
Jefferson
73.5%
138.5%
624.3%
Coffee
5.0%
Knox
Loudon
Rhea
Hamblen
15.9%
Johnson
-18.5%
6.0%
Grainger 101.8%
-4.3%
Roane 71.7%
-17.8%
Bedford
Marshall
-2.4%
-7.7%
24.6%
Cannon
Warren
Maury
Campbell
-17.0%
Cumberland
White
-15.3%
Lewis
-100.0%
Morgan
69.4%
Sullivan
Hawkins
Union
38.9%
Dekalb
Rutherford
Scott
Fentress
55.2%
118.1%
-10.7%
Overton
18.0%
Hickman
Henderson
59.9%
8.8%
Hancock
-24.4%
29.0%
Putnam
0.5%
Williamson
-65.8%
11.6%
Smith
Wilson
Dickson
Humphreys
75.3%
Crockett
-58.6%
Benton
Carroll
4.0%
Davidson
1.8%
50.7%
Claiborne
Trousdale
Jackson
-10.9%
Pickett
Clay
Macon
Sumner
-16.7%
54.3%
40.3%
Monroe
-3.7%
-20.6%
-37.0%
-4.4%
Lincoln
Franklin
Marion
-5.3%
Hamilton
Polk
-6.2%
Bradley
Tennessee - Counties - 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage
of the Population at Worship in Catholic Churches on a
Given Weekend Blue = Decline Rose = Growth
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Decline
Growth
37
The Final Chart
shows the net gain in the number of churches
in Tennessee in the past decade. There was a
net gain of 111 churches. However, 1771
churches were needed to keep up with
population growth in Tennessee from 1990 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
38
Increase in Churches in Tennessee Between 1990 & 2000
2100
1771
1600
1100
600
246
111
10
100
-146
-400
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Total Gain
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Increase Needed to
Maintain 1990 Ratio
of Churches to
Population
39
The State of the Church in
Tennessee . . .



Church attendance has increased numerically in Tennessee
over the last decade. But as a result of population growth,
Evangelical, Mainline and total numbers have not grown
quickly enough to keep up with population growth. Catholics,
however, have experienced significant growth (+5.8%).
There has been a significant 10% loss in the state-wide
percentage of the population that attended church between
1990 and 2000. This is caused in part by decline in Baptist
churches, typically very strong in Tennessee. They have
declined by 7.9% in the percentage of the population
attending a Baptist church.
A major factor in the overall decline is insufficient growth in
the number of churches in Tennessee. 1660 additional
churches needed to have been started in the previous decade
to compensate for the decline in percentage attendance.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
40
For More Information . . .



Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional
information on the American Church.
12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm
The complete Tennessee Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UTN20.htm

The Complete Nashville Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Nashville.htm

The Complete Memphis Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Memphis.htm

The Complete Knoxville Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Knoxville.htm

A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Tennessee and the Nashville, Memphis and Knoxville
Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/TN0.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
41
Information on the
Information







The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend
can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who
showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest
that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The
Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been
included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches.
This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the
average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on
the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as
accurate an estimate as possible.
Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches
than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the
1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along
with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making
numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from
1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar
dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size
nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular
attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a
simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of
Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other
religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
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This Presentation
is based on a nationwide study of American church
attendance, as reported by churches and denominations.
The database currently has average worship attendances
for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual
churches.
It also uses supplementary information (actual membership
numbers correlated with accurate membership to
attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other
denominational and independent churches. All told,
accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox
Christian churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and
perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and
increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
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43
For More Information . . .


Presentations such as this are available for the largest
100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the
nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to
show what is happening in the American church.
Presentations are available either by direct download,
CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org
for ordering information.
To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at
[email protected].
© 2004 by David T. Olson
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44