Transcript Slide 1

The State of the Church
in Massachusetts
1990-2000
Dave Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
1
This is a Sample Presentation
It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the
Christian church in Massachusetts, and what the complete
“State of the Church in Massachusetts” Powerpoint looks like.
The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to
view and discuss together the missional challenges in
Massachusetts that the Church faces. The complete
Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download
at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMA20.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
2
In 1996,
polls taken immediately after the Presidential election
revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted,
when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the
Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation
in activities that create acceptability within their social
group.
For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have
reported that around 45% of Americans attend church
every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual
attendance counts have shown that the
percentage of people attending church on any
given weekend is much lower than was previously
thought.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
3
The Intent
of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key
questions:
“How Many People Really Attend Church in
Massachusetts Every Week?”
“Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or
Backwards in Influence in Massachusetts?”
As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a
comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Massachusetts will
begin to take shape.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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This study
uses weekend church attendance as a more
reliable and more immediate snapshot of
Christian influence than membership. The
following map shows the percentage of the
population attending a Christian church on any
given weekend in all 50 states in 2000.
Massachusetts has an average church
attendance percentage (14.4%) lower than the
national average (18.7%).
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Percentage of Population Attending a Christian
Church on any Given Weekend 2000
11.8%
14.0%
NH
WA
17.5%
11.2%
13.2%
29.4%
MT
23.2%
ND
ME
VT
MN
14.5%
OR
14.4%
11.4%
24.6%
28.0%
ID
14.0%
NY
WI
SD
20.6%
WY
20.3%
CA
20.3%
15.2%
UT
IL
CO
22.7%
KS
AZ
21.7%
IN
WV
22.1%
MO
OK
NM
22.7%
NC
TN
25.0%
28.6% 16.0%
DC
DE
17.7%
MD
23.3%
SC
26.7%
MS
TX
18.0%
VA
KY
AR
19.1%
CT
NJ
17.4%
21.5%
22.0%
17.8%
16.0%
OH
23.5%
14.3%
17.2%
PA
IA
3.1%
NV
RI
20.5%
24.7%
NE
14.8%
20.1%
MI
23.8%
9.7%
MA
15.5%
26.9%
23.3%
GA
AL
29.4%
LA
15.1%
AK
15.1%
13.4%
HI
0.0% to 14.4%
14.4% to 17.5%
17.5% to 20.6%
20.6% to 23.5%
23.5% to 29.4%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
FL
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The Next Map
shows the percentage of the population
attending a Christian church on any given
weekend in 2000 for each county in
Massachusetts. The southern coastal
counties have the lowest church attendance.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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14.5%
Essex
16.8%
Franklin
15.0%
Berkshire
8.0%
Hampshire
12.6%
Worcester
15.7%
Hampden
Massachusetts Counties
Percentage of Population at
Worship in Christian Churches
on any Given Weekend
Blue = Lowest
Rose = Middle
Beige = Highest
13.5%
Middlesex
16.5%
Suffolk
17.3%
Norfolk
13.5%
Plymouth
9.4%
Barnstable
12.3%
Bristol
0.0% to 13.5%
13.5% to 16.5%
16.5% to 18.7%
17.7%
Dukes
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
9.7%
Nantucket
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The Next 2 Maps
show the population numbers for each county
in Massachusetts. The first map shows the
population of each county. The second map
shows the growth or decline in population for
each county from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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723,419
Essex
71,535
Franklin
1,465,396
Middlesex
134,953
Berkshire
152,251
Hampshire
456,228
Hampden
750,963
689,807
Suffolk
Worcester
650,308
Norfolk
472,822
Plymouth
Massachusetts Counties
534,678
Bristol
2000 Population
222,230
Barnstable
14,987
Dukes
9,520
Nantucket
0 to 222,230
222,230 to 689,807
689,807 to 1,465,397
Complete Presentation has
Map of 2000 Population
Growth for Each County
The Next 2 Slides
show the ethnicity of Massachusetts in 1990
and 2000. The third slide shows the growth
or decline in the percentage of the population
for each ethnic group.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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1990 Ethnicity of Massachusetts
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
5%
Asian
2%
Hispanic
Asian
Non-Hispanic Black
5%
Non-Hispanic White
88%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Complete Presentation has
Graph of 2000 Ethnicity
Massachusetts 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's
Percentage of the Population
77.2%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
47.3%
50.0%
40.0%
24.5%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-6.9%
-10.0%
-20.0%
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Asian
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The Next Graph
shows the attendance numbers for the churches in
Massachusetts in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals have
grown in attendance, while Mainline and Catholics
churches have significantly declined. Unfortunately,
as overall worship attendance has declined, the
population has grown. A more reliable standard for
evaluating increasing or declining influence is the
percentage of the population attending church on
any given weekend, shown in the second graph.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Massachusetts Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000
1,200,000
1,039,095
1,000,000
913,623
730,379
800,000
608,306
600,000
400,000
200,000
133,591
152,258
140,001
124,622
© 2004 by David T. Olson
2000 Total
1990 Total
2000 Catholic
1990 Catholic
2000 Mainline
1990 Mainline
2000 Evangelical
1990 Evangelical
-
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship
Percentage by Category
The Next Graph
is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the
population at churches in each category in
2000. The “Absent” category indicates the
percentage of the population that is not
worshipping at a Christian church on any
given weekend. The second graph shows the
percentage gain or decline for each category
in Massachusetts in 1990 and 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Massachusetts 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance
Evangelical, 2.4%
Mainline, 2.0%
Catholic, 9.6%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Absent
Absent, 85.6%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Massachusetts - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population 1990-2000
30.0%
20.0%
8.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-15.6%
-20.0%
-16.7%
-21.1%
-30.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Total
The 3 Next Charts
show the relative strength of the 8 major
denominational groups in Massachusetts.
The first chart illustrates the huge influence
of the Catholic church. The second and third
charts show the significant decline of
denominations in Massachusetts, with the
exception of the Pentecostal, Reformed and
Lutheran churches.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Complete Presentation has
Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by
Denominational Families
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Attendance by Denominational
Families
Massachusetts Increase or Decline in Percentage of the Population
Attending a Christian Church by "Denominational Family"
60.0%
52.6%
40.0%
20.0%
7.3%
0.2%
0.0%
-7.5%
-9.2%
-17.4%
-20.0%
-21.1%
-40.0%
-53.8%
-60.0%
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
Reformed
Pentecostal
Christian
Catholic
Other
The Next Chart
shows the 1990 & 2000 average church
attendance by group for both this state and
the nation. The second chart shows the 1990
& 2000 population per church for this state
and the nation. Among states in 2000,
Arkansas has the lowest population per
church with 411 people per church, Utah is
the highest at 4,586 people per church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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1990 & 2000 Massachusetts Average Church Attendance
878
900
778
800
794 794
700
600
500
1990 Massachusetts
2000 Massachusetts
1990 US Average
400
2000 US Average
309
267
300
172 175
200
129 128 124 131
115
100 93 112
100
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Total
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Population per Church
for State and Nation
The Next 3 Maps
show the attendance percentages for the
Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Massachusetts in 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
for each County
8.1%
Essex
11.4%
Franklin
8.8%
Middlesex
10.1%
Berkshire
4.5%
Hampshire
10.2%
Hampden
6.7%
7.3%
Worcester
Suffolk
9.5%
Norfolk
7.0%
Plymouth
Massachusetts Counties
Percentage of Population at
Worship in Catholic Churches on a
Given Weekend
Blue = Lowest
Rose = Middle
Beige = Highest
8.1%
Bristol
4.6%
Barnstable
10.8%
Dukes
3.4%
Nantucket
0.0% to 7.3%
7.3% to 10.1%
10.1% to 12.4%
The Next Map
shows the growth or decline in the percentage
of the population attending a Christian church
on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for
each county. 1 county grew in attendance
percentage, while 13 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Christian Church Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
The Next 3 Maps
show the growth or decline of attendance
percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and
Mainline churches in each county in
Massachusetts between 1990 and 2000. For
evangelicals, 11 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 2 counties declined. For
mainline churches, all 14 counties declined.
For Catholics, 2 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 12 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
-19.3%
Essex
-39.1%
Franklin
-16.9%
-37.0%
Berkshire
Middlesex
-61.8%
Hampshire
-36.5%
Worcester
-16.2%
Suffolk
16.9%
Hampden
-17.5%
Norfolk
-19.8%
Plymouth
Massachusetts Counties
1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage
of the Population at Worship in Catholic
Churches on a Given Weekend
Blue = Decline
Rose = Growth
-26.7%
Bristol
-57.5%
Barnstable
9.3%
Dukes
-70.2%
Nantucket
Decline
Growth
The Final Chart
shows the net gain in the number of churches
in Massachusetts in the past decade. There
was a net gain of 52 churches. However, 179
churches were needed to keep up with
population growth from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Increase in Number of Churches in Massachusetts Between 1990 - 2000
179
200
159
150
100
52
50
-55
-50
0
-50
-100
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Total Gain
Increase Needed to
Maintain 1990 Ratio of
Churches to Population
The State of the Church in
Massachusetts . . .
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Because of the traditionally strong Catholic influence in
Massachusetts, overall church attendance is suffering as a result of
the decline in Catholic attendance.
Church attendance has grown for Evangelicals both numerically and
in the percentage of the population attending a Evangelical church
(an increase of 8%). A significant factor in the growth of the
Evangelical church is the net gain of 157 churches over the last
decade.
The percentage of the population attending church has decreased,
resulting in a 17% loss in the state-wide percentage of the
population that attended church between 1990 and 2000.
A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the
number of churches in Massachusetts. One hundred and twentyseven additional churches needed to have been started in the
previous decade to compensate for the decline in percentage
attendance.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
41
For More Information . . .



Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for
additional information on the American Church.
12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm
The complete Massachusetts Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMA20.htm

The Complete Boston Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Boston.htm

A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Massachusetts and Boston Powerpoints) is
available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/MA0.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
42
Information on the
Information
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The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend
can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who
showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest
that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The
Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been
included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches.
This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the
average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on
the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as
accurate an estimate as possible.
Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches
than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the
1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along
with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making
numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from
1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar
dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size
nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular
attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a
simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of
Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other
religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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This Presentation
is based on a nationwide study of American church
attendance, as reported by churches and denominations.
The database currently has average worship attendances
for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual
churches.
It also uses supplementary information (actual membership
numbers correlated with accurate membership to
attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other
denominational and independent churches. All told,
accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox
Christian churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and
perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and
increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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For More Information . . .


Presentations such as this are available for the largest
100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the
nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to
show what is happening in the American church.
Presentations are available either by direct download,
CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org
for ordering information.
To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at
[email protected].
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
45