Transcript Slide 1

The State of the Church
in Colorado
1990-2000
Dave Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
1
This is a Sample Presentation
It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the
Christian church in Colorado, and what the complete “State of
the Church in Colorado” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to
encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss
together the missional challenges in Colorado that the Church
faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for
immediate download at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UCO20.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
2
In 1996,
polls taken immediately after the Presidential election
revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted,
when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the
Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation
in activities that create acceptability within their social
group.
For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have
reported that around 45% of Americans attend church
every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual
attendance counts have shown that the
percentage of people attending church on any
given weekend is much lower than was previously
thought.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
3
The Intent
of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two
key questions:
“How Many People Really Attend Church in
Colorado Every Week?”
“Is the Christian Church Going Forward or
Backwards in Influence in Colorado?”
As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of
factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in
Colorado will begin to take shape.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
4
This study
uses weekend church attendance as a more
reliable and more immediate snapshot of
Christian influence than membership. The
following map shows the percentage of the
population attending a Christian church on any
given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Colorado
has an attendance percentage (15.2%) that is
less than the average for the nation (18.7%).
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
5
Percentage of Population Attending a Christian Church
on any Given Weekend in 2000
11.8%
NH
14.0%
WA
17.5%
MT
29.4%
ND
14.5%
OR
11.4%
ID
14.0%
WY
24.6%
WI
28.0%
SD
14.8%
CA
3.1%
UT
14.3%
AZ
24.7%
IA
20.3%
IL
15.2%
CO
22.7%
KS
22.0%
OK
17.8%
NM
21.7%
IN
21.5%
MO
20.3%
OH
22.1%
KY
20.5%
PA
16.0%
NJ
17.4%
18.0%
WV
VA
22.7%
NC
23.5%
TN
25.0%
AR
28.6%
DC
20.1%
RI
17.2%
CT
16.0%
DE
17.7%
MD
23.3%
SC
26.7%
MS
19.1%
TX
14.4%
MA
15.5%
NY
20.6%
MI
23.8%
NE
9.7%
NV
11.2%
ME
13.2%
VT
23.2%
MN
26.9%
AL
23.3%
GA
38.4%
LA
15.1%
AK
15.1%
FL
13.4%
HI
0.0% to 14.4%
14.4% to 17.5%
17.5% to 20.6%
20.6% to 23.5%
23.5% to 39.4%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
6
The Next Map
shows the percentage of the population
attending a Christian church on any given
weekend in 2000 for each county in Colorado.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
7
25.6%
Sedgwick
9.9%
Jackson
12.7%
Moffat
21.1%
Logan
18.0%
Larimer
32.0%
Phillips
16.7%
Weld
12.3%
Routt
20.3%
Morgan
9.6%
Grand
18.1%
Boulder
13.6%
Rio Blanco
8.0%
Summit
11.9%
Eagle
11.2%
Garfield
Broomfield
2.1%
Gilpin
5.1%
Clear Creek
20.0%
Denver
19.6%
Arapahoe
15.8%
Jefferson
11.7%
Douglas
4.7%
Pitkin
12.8%
Mesa
30.2%
Lake
10.2%
Dolores
12.8%
Montezuma
18.3%
Lincoln
10.7%
Teller
23.1%
Cheyenne
18.0%
El Paso
20.8%
Chaffee
15.2%
Fremont
15.1%
Montrose
10.5%
San Miguel
29.4%
Kit Carson
5.0%
Elbert
5.1%
Park
15.9%
Delta
14.5%
Gunnison
30.6%
Kiowa
9.7%
Crowley
11.4%
Ouray
17.5%
Saguache
14.6%
Hinsdale
10.7%
San Juan
14.7%
La Plata
12.6%
Mineral
21.5%
Archuleta
27.1%
Rio Grande
22.2%
Pueblo
10.5%
Custer
29.8%
Otero
15.6%
Bent
25.1%
Prowers
20.3%
Huerfano
23.9%
Alamosa
15.8%
Conejos
23.8%
Yuma
26.1%
Washington
10.9%
Adams
29.5%
Costilla
26.9%
Las Animas
Colorado - 2000 Percentage of the Population at
Worship in Christian Churches on any Given Sunday
Blue = Lowest Maroon = Middle Beige = Highest
© 2004 by David T. Olson
20.3%
Baca
0.0% to 12.7%
12.7% to 20.3%
20.3% to 33.0%
The Next 2 Maps
show the population numbers for each county
in Colorado. The first map shows the
population size of each county. Eleven
counties have a population of over 100,000
people. The second map shows the growth or
decline in population for each county from
1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
9
2,747
Sedgwick
1,577
Jackson
13,184
20,504
Logan
251,494
Larimer
Moffat
4,480
Phillips
180,936
Weld
19,690
Routt
27,171
Morgan
12,442
Grand
291,288
Boulder
5,986
Rio Blanco
4,926
Washington
Broomfield
23,548
Summit
41,659
Eagle
43,791
Garfield
363,857
Adams
4,757
Gilpin
9,322
Clear Creek
554,636
Denver
487,967
Arapahoe
527,056
Jefferson
175,766
Douglas
14,872
Pitkin
116,255
Mesa
7,812
Lake
19,872
Elbert
8,011
Kit Carson
14,523
6,087
Lincoln
Park
27,834
Delta
20,555
Teller
13,956
Gunnison
516,929
El Paso
16,242
Chaffee
2,231
Cheyenne
46,145
Fremont
33,432
Montrose
6,594
San Miguel
1,844
Dolores
5,917
Saguache
790
Hinsdale
141,472
Pueblo
3,503
Custer
20,311
Otero
5,998
Bent
14,483
Prowers
558
San Juan
831
Mineral
12,413
Rio Grande
7,862
Huerfano
14,966
Alamosa
23,830
Montezuma
1,622
Kiowa
5,518
Crowley
3,742
Ouray
9,841
Yuma
43,941
La Plata
3,663
9,898
Archuleta
8,400
Conejos
Costilla
Colorado - 2000 Population per County
Blue = Lowest Maroon = Middle Beige = Highest
© 2004 by David T. Olson
15,207
Las Animas
4,517
Baca
0 to 10,000
10,000 to 100,000
100,000 to 554,637
Complete Presentation has
Map of 2000 Population
Growth for Each County
The 2 Next Slides
show the ethnicity of Colorado in 1990 and
2000. The third slide shows the growth or
decline in the percentage of the population
for each ethnic group.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
12
1990 Ethnicity of Colorado
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
13%
Asian
2%
Hispanic
Asian
Non-Hispanic Black
4%
Non-Hispanic White
81%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
13
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 2000 Ethnicity
Colorado 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's Percentage of the
Population
53.3%
60.0%
50.0%
34.4%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
6.5%
10.0%
0.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Asian
15
The Next Graph
shows the attendance numbers for the churches in
Colorado in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is the
strong growth of Evangelical churches.
Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has
remained grown, the population has grown much
more dramatically. A more reliable standard for
evaluating increasing or declining influence is the
percentage of the population attending church on
any given weekend, shown in the second graph.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
16
Colorado Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000
652,922
700,000
575,466
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
329,460
264,432
188,598
199,612
200,000
118,717 120,130
100,000
© 2004 by David T. Olson
2000 Total
1990 Total
2000 Catholic
1990 Catholic
2000 Mainline
1990 Mainline
2000 Evangelical
1990 Evangelical
-
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship
Percentage by Category
The Next Graph
is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the
population at churches in each category in
2000. The “Absent” category indicates the
percentage of the population that is not
worshipping at a Christian church on any
given weekend. The second graph shows the
percentage gain or decline for each category
in Colorado in 1990 and 2000. Most
noteworthy is the percentage decline of each
group.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
19
Colorado 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance
7.7%
2.8%
4.6%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Absent
84.8%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Colorado - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population 1990-2000
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-4.6%
-10.0%
-13.1%
-18.9%
-20.0%
-22.5%
-30.0%
-40.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Total
The 3 Next Charts
show the relative strength of the 8 major
denominational groups in Colorado. In
Colorado, the ‘other’ category represent a
variety of predominately evangelical groups.
The second and third charts show that all
groups have declined with the exception of
the Pentecostals.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
22
Complete Presentation has
Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by
Denominational Families
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Attendance by Denominational
Families
1990 & 2000 Increase or Decline in the Percentage of the Population in a
Christian Church on any Given Weekend by Denominational Family
15.0%
11.5%
10.0%
5.0%
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
Reformed
Pentecostal
Christian
Catholic
Other
0.0%
-5.0%
-7.9%
-10.0%
-11.6%
-13.4%
-13.1%
-15.0%
-18.9%
-19.4%
-20.0%
-22.0%
-25.0%
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
Reformed
Pentecostal
Christian
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Catholic
Other
The Next Chart
shows the 1990 & 2000 average church
attendance by group for both this state and
the nation. The second chart shows the 1990
& 2000 population per church for this state
and the nation. This shows how many people
live in this state for every Christian church.
Among states in 2000, Arkansas is the lowest
at 411 people per church, while Utah is the
highest at 4,586 people per church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
26
1990 & 2000 Colorado Average Church Attendance
900
794 794
800
659 670
700
600
500
1990 Colorado
2000 Colorado
1990 US Average
2000 US Average
400
300
188
200
139
161
124 131
139 144
204
172 175
112 115
100
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
27
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Population per Church
for State and Nation
The Next 3 Maps
show the attendance percentages for the
Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Colorado in 2000. The eastern
plains have a high percentage of attendance
than the rest of the state.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
29
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
for each County
1.1%
Sedgwick
1.3%
Jackson
2.4%
Moffat
4.0%
Logan
3.4%
Larimer
4.1%
Routt
3.9%
Weld
3.0%
Grand
2.6%
Summit
6.3%
Eagle
3.3%
Garfield
7.0%
Morgan
5.3%
Boulder
2.6%
Rio Blanco
Broomfield
0.7%
Gilpin
2.2%
Clear Creek
7.6%
Denver
2.0%
Pitkin
1.2%
Mesa
3.5%
Arapahoe
4.3%
Jefferson
6.6%
Kit Carson
Elbert
1.2%
Park
2.6%
Delta
3.1%
Lincoln
2.5%
Teller
6.1%
Gunnison
7.4%
Cheyenne
3.0%
El Paso
6.2%
Chaffee
4.3%
Fremont
1.6%
Montrose
Kiowa
4.2%
Crowley
5.0%
San Miguel
0.8%
Dolores
1.1%
Montezuma
2.5%
Ouray
18.7%
San Juan
5.0%
La Plata
2.9%
Custer
8.3%
Saguache
10.2%
Pueblo
12.3%
Otero
1.5%
Hinsdale
1.3%
Mineral
10.6%
Archuleta
8.4%
Rio Grande
9.5%
Conejos
4.5%
Yuma
3.8%
Washington
4.4%
Adams
2.5%
Douglas
17.5%
Lake
3.9%
Phillips
5.0%
Bent
6.4%
Prowers
11.6%
Huerfano
10.1%
Alamosa
22.6%
Costilla
Colorado - 2000 Percentage of the Population at
Worship in Catholic Churches on any Given Sunday
Blue = Lowest Maroon = Middle Beige = Highest
© 2004 by David T. Olson
17.7%
Las Animas
1.2%
Baca
0.0% to 2.9%
2.9% to 5.3%
5.3% to 23.6%
No data
The Next Map
shows the growth or decline in the percentage
of the population attending a Christian church
on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for
each county. 22 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 41 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
33
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Christian Church Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
The Next 3 Maps
show the growth or decline of attendance percentages
for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Colorado between 1990 and 2000. For
evangelicals, 22 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 41 counties declined. For mainline
churches, 10 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 53 counties declined. For Catholics,
19 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 40
counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
35
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Mainline Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
-88.7%
Sedgwick
-69.1%
-21.6%
Jackson
-55.5%
Logan
-32.8%
Larimer
Moffat
-30.3%
Phillips
-47.0%
Weld
-8.9%
Routt
48.0%
Morgan
-15.1%
Grand
-20.8%
Rio Blanco
-32.3%
Summit
24.2%
Eagle
7.6%
Garfield
13.3%
Boulder
Broomfield
-31.5%
Gilpin
-19.5%
Clear Creek
9.4%
Denver
-7.2%
Adams
-30.1%
Arapahoe
-31.2%
Jefferson
-26.6%
Douglas
-54.8%
Pitkin
-64.0%
Mesa
-18.0%
Kit Carson
Elbert
-24.4%
Lake
Park
-61.1%
Lincoln
-4.5%
-55.8%
Delta
Teller
56.6%
Gunnison
39.1%
Yuma
43.7%
Washington
-39.5%
Cheyenne
-36.7%
El Paso
-29.3%
Chaffee
176.5%
Fremont
-69.2%
Montrose
Kiowa
25.4%
Crowley
57.6%
San Miguel
-49.1%
Dolores
19.7%
Ouray
-13.1%
Custer
Pueblo
50.8%
Otero
-37.9%
Bent
13.0%
Prowers
79.2%
San Juan
Mineral
-15.3%
Montezuma
-6.4%
-24.1%
Saguache
-75.8%
Hinsdale
4.2%
La Plata
190.7%
Archuleta
-43.7%
-22.9%
Rio Grande
Huerfano
-17.6%
Alamosa
51.8%
Conejos
-11.3%
Costilla
148.4%
Las Animas
Colorado - 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at
Worship in Catholic Churches on any Given Sunday
Blue = Decline Maroon = Growth
© 2004 by David T. Olson
-65.6%
Baca
Decline
Growth
No data
The Final Chart
shows the net gain in the number of churches
in Colorado in the past decade. There was a
net gain of 144 churches. However, to keep
up with the population growth in Colorado,
there would have needed to have been an
additional 792 more churches started from
1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
39
Increase in Number of Churches in Colorado Between 1990 & 2000
936
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
144
152
200
-20
100
12
0
-100
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Total Gain
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Increase Needed to
Maintain 1990 Ratio
of Churches to
Population
The State of the Church in
Colorado . . .



Because of strong population growth along the Front
Range of Colorado, the church has both great
opportunities and great challenges.
While church attendance has grown for the Evangelical,
Mainline and Catholic churches, the percentage of the
population attending church has been declining for each
group. This resulted in a 13% loss in the state-wide
percentage of the population that attended church
between 1990 and 2000.
A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient
net gain in the number of churches in Colorado. If the
present decade is to rectify that state-wide, 792 more
churches would need to be started in the state than in
the previous decade.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
41
For More Information . . .



Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for
additional information on the American Church.
12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm
The complete Colorado Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UCO20.htm

The Complete Front Range Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/FrontRange.htm

A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Colorado and Front Range Powerpoints) is
available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/CO0.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
42
Information on the
Information







The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend
can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who
showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest
that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The
Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been
included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches.
This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the
average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on
the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as
accurate an estimate as possible.
Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches
than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the
1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along
with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making
numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from
1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar
dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size
nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular
attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a
simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of
Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other
religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
43
This Presentation
is based on a nationwide study of American church
attendance, as reported by churches and denominations.
The database currently has average worship attendances
for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual
churches.
It also uses supplementary information (actual membership
numbers correlated with accurate membership to
attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other
denominational and independent churches. All told,
accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox
Christian churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and
perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and
increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
44
For More Information . . .


Presentations such as this are available for the largest
100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the
nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to
show what is happening in the American church.
Presentations are available either by direct download,
CD or print. Please go to www.The AmericanChurch.org
for ordering information.
To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at
[email protected].
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
45