Transcript Slide 1
The State of the Church in Colorado 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 1 This is a Sample Presentation It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the Christian church in Colorado, and what the complete “State of the Church in Colorado” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss together the missional challenges in Colorado that the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UCO20.htm © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 2 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 3 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in Colorado Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forward or Backwards in Influence in Colorado?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Colorado will begin to take shape. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 4 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Colorado has an attendance percentage (15.2%) that is less than the average for the nation (18.7%). © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 5 Percentage of Population Attending a Christian Church on any Given Weekend in 2000 11.8% NH 14.0% WA 17.5% MT 29.4% ND 14.5% OR 11.4% ID 14.0% WY 24.6% WI 28.0% SD 14.8% CA 3.1% UT 14.3% AZ 24.7% IA 20.3% IL 15.2% CO 22.7% KS 22.0% OK 17.8% NM 21.7% IN 21.5% MO 20.3% OH 22.1% KY 20.5% PA 16.0% NJ 17.4% 18.0% WV VA 22.7% NC 23.5% TN 25.0% AR 28.6% DC 20.1% RI 17.2% CT 16.0% DE 17.7% MD 23.3% SC 26.7% MS 19.1% TX 14.4% MA 15.5% NY 20.6% MI 23.8% NE 9.7% NV 11.2% ME 13.2% VT 23.2% MN 26.9% AL 23.3% GA 38.4% LA 15.1% AK 15.1% FL 13.4% HI 0.0% to 14.4% 14.4% to 17.5% 17.5% to 20.6% 20.6% to 23.5% 23.5% to 39.4% © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 6 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Colorado. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 7 25.6% Sedgwick 9.9% Jackson 12.7% Moffat 21.1% Logan 18.0% Larimer 32.0% Phillips 16.7% Weld 12.3% Routt 20.3% Morgan 9.6% Grand 18.1% Boulder 13.6% Rio Blanco 8.0% Summit 11.9% Eagle 11.2% Garfield Broomfield 2.1% Gilpin 5.1% Clear Creek 20.0% Denver 19.6% Arapahoe 15.8% Jefferson 11.7% Douglas 4.7% Pitkin 12.8% Mesa 30.2% Lake 10.2% Dolores 12.8% Montezuma 18.3% Lincoln 10.7% Teller 23.1% Cheyenne 18.0% El Paso 20.8% Chaffee 15.2% Fremont 15.1% Montrose 10.5% San Miguel 29.4% Kit Carson 5.0% Elbert 5.1% Park 15.9% Delta 14.5% Gunnison 30.6% Kiowa 9.7% Crowley 11.4% Ouray 17.5% Saguache 14.6% Hinsdale 10.7% San Juan 14.7% La Plata 12.6% Mineral 21.5% Archuleta 27.1% Rio Grande 22.2% Pueblo 10.5% Custer 29.8% Otero 15.6% Bent 25.1% Prowers 20.3% Huerfano 23.9% Alamosa 15.8% Conejos 23.8% Yuma 26.1% Washington 10.9% Adams 29.5% Costilla 26.9% Las Animas Colorado - 2000 Percentage of the Population at Worship in Christian Churches on any Given Sunday Blue = Lowest Maroon = Middle Beige = Highest © 2004 by David T. Olson 20.3% Baca 0.0% to 12.7% 12.7% to 20.3% 20.3% to 33.0% The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Colorado. The first map shows the population size of each county. Eleven counties have a population of over 100,000 people. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 9 2,747 Sedgwick 1,577 Jackson 13,184 20,504 Logan 251,494 Larimer Moffat 4,480 Phillips 180,936 Weld 19,690 Routt 27,171 Morgan 12,442 Grand 291,288 Boulder 5,986 Rio Blanco 4,926 Washington Broomfield 23,548 Summit 41,659 Eagle 43,791 Garfield 363,857 Adams 4,757 Gilpin 9,322 Clear Creek 554,636 Denver 487,967 Arapahoe 527,056 Jefferson 175,766 Douglas 14,872 Pitkin 116,255 Mesa 7,812 Lake 19,872 Elbert 8,011 Kit Carson 14,523 6,087 Lincoln Park 27,834 Delta 20,555 Teller 13,956 Gunnison 516,929 El Paso 16,242 Chaffee 2,231 Cheyenne 46,145 Fremont 33,432 Montrose 6,594 San Miguel 1,844 Dolores 5,917 Saguache 790 Hinsdale 141,472 Pueblo 3,503 Custer 20,311 Otero 5,998 Bent 14,483 Prowers 558 San Juan 831 Mineral 12,413 Rio Grande 7,862 Huerfano 14,966 Alamosa 23,830 Montezuma 1,622 Kiowa 5,518 Crowley 3,742 Ouray 9,841 Yuma 43,941 La Plata 3,663 9,898 Archuleta 8,400 Conejos Costilla Colorado - 2000 Population per County Blue = Lowest Maroon = Middle Beige = Highest © 2004 by David T. Olson 15,207 Las Animas 4,517 Baca 0 to 10,000 10,000 to 100,000 100,000 to 554,637 Complete Presentation has Map of 2000 Population Growth for Each County The 2 Next Slides show the ethnicity of Colorado in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 12 1990 Ethnicity of Colorado Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic 13% Asian 2% Hispanic Asian Non-Hispanic Black 4% Non-Hispanic White 81% © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 13 Complete Presentation has Graph of 2000 Ethnicity Colorado 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's Percentage of the Population 53.3% 60.0% 50.0% 34.4% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 6.5% 10.0% 0.0% -8.0% -10.0% -20.0% Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Asian 15 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Colorado in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is the strong growth of Evangelical churches. Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has remained grown, the population has grown much more dramatically. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 16 Colorado Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000 652,922 700,000 575,466 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 329,460 264,432 188,598 199,612 200,000 118,717 120,130 100,000 © 2004 by David T. Olson 2000 Total 1990 Total 2000 Catholic 1990 Catholic 2000 Mainline 1990 Mainline 2000 Evangelical 1990 Evangelical - Complete Presentation has Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship Percentage by Category The Next Graph is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Colorado in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is the percentage decline of each group. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 19 Colorado 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance 7.7% 2.8% 4.6% Evangelical Mainline Catholic Absent 84.8% © 2004 by David T. Olson Colorado - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population 1990-2000 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -4.6% -10.0% -13.1% -18.9% -20.0% -22.5% -30.0% -40.0% Evangelical Mainline Catholic © 2004 by David T. Olson Total The 3 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Colorado. In Colorado, the ‘other’ category represent a variety of predominately evangelical groups. The second and third charts show that all groups have declined with the exception of the Pentecostals. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 22 Complete Presentation has Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families 1990 & 2000 Increase or Decline in the Percentage of the Population in a Christian Church on any Given Weekend by Denominational Family 15.0% 11.5% 10.0% 5.0% Baptist Methodist Lutheran Reformed Pentecostal Christian Catholic Other 0.0% -5.0% -7.9% -10.0% -11.6% -13.4% -13.1% -15.0% -18.9% -19.4% -20.0% -22.0% -25.0% Baptist Methodist Lutheran Reformed Pentecostal Christian © 2004 by David T. Olson Catholic Other The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this state and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for this state and the nation. This shows how many people live in this state for every Christian church. Among states in 2000, Arkansas is the lowest at 411 people per church, while Utah is the highest at 4,586 people per church. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 26 1990 & 2000 Colorado Average Church Attendance 900 794 794 800 659 670 700 600 500 1990 Colorado 2000 Colorado 1990 US Average 2000 US Average 400 300 188 200 139 161 124 131 139 144 204 172 175 112 115 100 Evangelical Mainline Catholic © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Total 27 Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Population per Church for State and Nation The Next 3 Maps show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Colorado in 2000. The eastern plains have a high percentage of attendance than the rest of the state. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 29 Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage for each County Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage for each County 1.1% Sedgwick 1.3% Jackson 2.4% Moffat 4.0% Logan 3.4% Larimer 4.1% Routt 3.9% Weld 3.0% Grand 2.6% Summit 6.3% Eagle 3.3% Garfield 7.0% Morgan 5.3% Boulder 2.6% Rio Blanco Broomfield 0.7% Gilpin 2.2% Clear Creek 7.6% Denver 2.0% Pitkin 1.2% Mesa 3.5% Arapahoe 4.3% Jefferson 6.6% Kit Carson Elbert 1.2% Park 2.6% Delta 3.1% Lincoln 2.5% Teller 6.1% Gunnison 7.4% Cheyenne 3.0% El Paso 6.2% Chaffee 4.3% Fremont 1.6% Montrose Kiowa 4.2% Crowley 5.0% San Miguel 0.8% Dolores 1.1% Montezuma 2.5% Ouray 18.7% San Juan 5.0% La Plata 2.9% Custer 8.3% Saguache 10.2% Pueblo 12.3% Otero 1.5% Hinsdale 1.3% Mineral 10.6% Archuleta 8.4% Rio Grande 9.5% Conejos 4.5% Yuma 3.8% Washington 4.4% Adams 2.5% Douglas 17.5% Lake 3.9% Phillips 5.0% Bent 6.4% Prowers 11.6% Huerfano 10.1% Alamosa 22.6% Costilla Colorado - 2000 Percentage of the Population at Worship in Catholic Churches on any Given Sunday Blue = Lowest Maroon = Middle Beige = Highest © 2004 by David T. Olson 17.7% Las Animas 1.2% Baca 0.0% to 2.9% 2.9% to 5.3% 5.3% to 23.6% No data The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 22 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 41 counties declined. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 33 Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Christian Church Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Colorado between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 22 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 41 counties declined. For mainline churches, 10 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 53 counties declined. For Catholics, 19 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 40 counties declined. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 35 Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County -88.7% Sedgwick -69.1% -21.6% Jackson -55.5% Logan -32.8% Larimer Moffat -30.3% Phillips -47.0% Weld -8.9% Routt 48.0% Morgan -15.1% Grand -20.8% Rio Blanco -32.3% Summit 24.2% Eagle 7.6% Garfield 13.3% Boulder Broomfield -31.5% Gilpin -19.5% Clear Creek 9.4% Denver -7.2% Adams -30.1% Arapahoe -31.2% Jefferson -26.6% Douglas -54.8% Pitkin -64.0% Mesa -18.0% Kit Carson Elbert -24.4% Lake Park -61.1% Lincoln -4.5% -55.8% Delta Teller 56.6% Gunnison 39.1% Yuma 43.7% Washington -39.5% Cheyenne -36.7% El Paso -29.3% Chaffee 176.5% Fremont -69.2% Montrose Kiowa 25.4% Crowley 57.6% San Miguel -49.1% Dolores 19.7% Ouray -13.1% Custer Pueblo 50.8% Otero -37.9% Bent 13.0% Prowers 79.2% San Juan Mineral -15.3% Montezuma -6.4% -24.1% Saguache -75.8% Hinsdale 4.2% La Plata 190.7% Archuleta -43.7% -22.9% Rio Grande Huerfano -17.6% Alamosa 51.8% Conejos -11.3% Costilla 148.4% Las Animas Colorado - 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in Catholic Churches on any Given Sunday Blue = Decline Maroon = Growth © 2004 by David T. Olson -65.6% Baca Decline Growth No data The Final Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in Colorado in the past decade. There was a net gain of 144 churches. However, to keep up with the population growth in Colorado, there would have needed to have been an additional 792 more churches started from 1990 - 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 39 Increase in Number of Churches in Colorado Between 1990 & 2000 936 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 144 152 200 -20 100 12 0 -100 Evangelical Mainline Catholic Total Gain © 2004 by David T. Olson Increase Needed to Maintain 1990 Ratio of Churches to Population The State of the Church in Colorado . . . Because of strong population growth along the Front Range of Colorado, the church has both great opportunities and great challenges. While church attendance has grown for the Evangelical, Mainline and Catholic churches, the percentage of the population attending church has been declining for each group. This resulted in a 13% loss in the state-wide percentage of the population that attended church between 1990 and 2000. A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in Colorado. If the present decade is to rectify that state-wide, 792 more churches would need to be started in the state than in the previous decade. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 41 For More Information . . . Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church. 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm The complete Colorado Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UCO20.htm The Complete Front Range Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/FrontRange.htm A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Colorado and Front Range Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/CO0.htm © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 42 Information on the Information The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline. Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled. African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible. Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches. In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located. Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study. This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 43 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches.1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 44 For More Information . . . Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.The AmericanChurch.org for ordering information. To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at [email protected]. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 45