Transcript Slide 1

The State of the Church
in New Mexico
1990-2000
Dave Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
1
This is a Sample Presentation
It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the
Christian church in New Mexico, and what the complete “State
of the Church in New Mexico” Powerpoint looks like. The goal
is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and
discuss together the missional challenges in New Mexico that
the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is
available for immediate download at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UNM20.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
2
In 1996,
polls taken immediately after the Presidential election
revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted,
when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the
Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation
in activities that create acceptability within their social
group.
For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have
reported that around 45% of Americans attend church
every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual
attendance counts have shown that the
percentage of people attending church on any
given weekend is much lower than was previously
thought.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
3
The Intent
of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two
key questions:
“How Many People Really Attend Church in
New Mexico Every Week?”
“Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or
Backwards in Influence in New Mexico?”
As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of
factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in New
Mexico will begin to take shape.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
4
This study
uses weekend church attendance as a more
reliable and more immediate snapshot of
Christian influence than membership. The
following map shows the percentage of the
population attending a Christian church on any
given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. New
Mexico has an average church attendance
percentage (17.8%) close to the national
average (18.7%).
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
5
Percentage of Population Attending a Christian
Church on any Given Weekend 2000
11.8%
14.0%
NH
WA
17.5%
11.2%
13.2%
29.4%
MT
23.2%
ND
ME
VT
MN
14.5%
OR
14.4%
11.4%
24.6%
28.0%
ID
14.0%
NY
WI
SD
20.6%
WY
20.3%
CA
20.3%
15.2%
UT
IL
CO
22.7%
KS
AZ
21.7%
IN
WV
22.1%
MO
OK
NM
22.7%
NC
TN
25.0%
28.6% 16.0%
DC
DE
17.7%
MD
23.3%
SC
26.7%
MS
TX
18.0%
VA
KY
AR
19.1%
CT
NJ
17.4%
21.5%
22.0%
17.8%
16.0%
OH
23.5%
14.3%
17.2%
PA
IA
3.1%
NV
RI
20.5%
24.7%
NE
14.8%
20.1%
MI
23.8%
9.7%
MA
15.5%
26.9%
23.3%
GA
AL
29.4%
LA
15.1%
AK
15.1%
13.4%
HI
0.0% to 14.4%
14.4% to 17.5%
17.5% to 20.6%
20.6% to 23.5%
23.5% to 29.4%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
FL
6
The Next Map
shows the percentage of the population
attending a Christian church on any given
weekend in 2000 for each county in New
Mexico.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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21.6%
Colfax
19.7%
12.0%
San Juan
23.0%
Taos
Rio Arriba
23.4%
Union
21.1%
Mora
21.7%
Harding
26.7%
Los Alamos
11.0%
McKinley
13.2%
Sandoval
13.5%
Santa Fe
18.8%
San Miguel
24.3%
17.9%
Bernalillo
24.8%
Cibola
14.3%
Valencia
Quay
26.2%
Guadalupe
17.8%
20.1%
Curry
Torrance
25.4%
De Baca
22.0%
Roosevelt
15.0%
Socorro
14.0%
Catron
14.9%
Lincoln
16.3%
Chaves
9.8%
Sierra
16.1%
Grant
18.1%
Lea
16.3%
Otero
13.6%
Dona Ana
21.6%
Eddy
11.9%
Luna
15.0%
Hidalgo
0.0% to 15.0%
15.0% to 21.6%
21.6% to 27.7%
New Mexico - 2000 Percentage of the
Population at Worship in
Christian Churches on any Given Sunday
Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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The Next 2 Maps
show the population numbers for each county
in New Mexico. The first map shows the
population of each county. The second map
shows the growth or decline in population for
each county from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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89,908
San Juan
14,189
Colfax
29,979
Taos
41,190
Rio Arriba
4,174
Union
5,180
Mora
18,343
810
Harding
Los Alamos
30,126
Sandoval
74,798
McKinley
129,292
Santa Fe
113,801
San Miguel
10,155
556,678
Bernalillo
25,595
Cibola
66,152
Valencia
Quay
16,911
4,680
Guadalupe
45,044
Curry
Torrance
2,240
De Baca
18,018
Roosevelt
18,078
Socorro
3,543
Catron
19,411
Lincoln
61,382
Chaves
13,270
Sierra
31,002
Grant
5,932
55,511
Lea
62,298
Otero
51,658
Eddy
174,682
Dona Ana
25,016
Luna
Hidalgo
New Mexico Counties
2000 Population
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
0 to 20,000
20,000 to 80,000
80,000 to 556,679
10
Complete Presentation has
Map of 2000 Population
Growth for Each County
The Next 2 Slides
show the ethnicity of New Mexico in 1990 and
2000. The third slide shows the growth or
decline in the percentage of the population
for each ethnic group.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
12
1990 Ethnicity of New Mexico
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Asian
1%
Hispanic
Asian
Hispanic
42%
Non-Hispanic White
55%
Non-Hispanic Black
2%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
13
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 2000 Ethnicity
New Mexico 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's
Percentage of the Population
50.0%
42.8%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.5%
7.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-11.5%
-20.0%
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Asian
15
The Next Graph
shows the attendance numbers for the churches in New
Mexico in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals and Catholics
have grown in attendance, the Mainline has remained
nearly the same. Unfortunately, as overall worship
attendance has declined, the population has grown. A
more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or
declining influence is the percentage of the
population attending church on any given weekend,
shown in the second graph. This graph reflects a
significant decrease in the percentage of the
population attending church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
16
New Mexico Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000
400,000
350,000
315,899
324,317
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
146,404
132,374 139,170
149,144
100,000
36,595
50,000
35,477
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
2000 Total
1990 Total
2000 Catholic
1990 Catholic
2000 Mainline
1990 Mainline
2000 Evangelical
1990 Evangelical
-
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Complete Presentation has
Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship
Percentage by Category
The Next Graph
is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the
population at churches in each category in
2000. The “Absent” category indicates the
percentage of the population that is not
worshipping at a Christian church on any
given weekend. The second graph shows the
percentage gain or decline for each category
in New Mexico in 1990 and 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
19
New Mexico 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance
Evangelical
8% Mainline
2%
Catholic
8%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Absent
Absent
82%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
20
New Mexico - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population - 1990 & 2000
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-12.4%
-15.2%
-14.5%
-19.3%
-20.0%
-30.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
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The 3 Next Charts
show the relative strength of the 8 major
denominational groups in New Mexico. The
first chart illustrates the large influence of the
Catholic church. The second and third charts
show the decline of all denominations in New
Mexico.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
22
Complete Presentation has
Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by
Denominational Families
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Attendance by Denominational
Families
New Mexico Increase or Decline in Percentage of the Population
Attending Church by "Denominational Family"
0.0%
-2.2%
-5.0%
-4.2%
-10.0%
-14.2%
-15.0%
-14.7%
-15.2%
-18.9%
-20.0%
-20.5%
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
Reformed
Pentecostal
Christian
Catholic
Other
-24.3%
-25.0%
-30.0%
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
Reformed
Pentecostal
Christian
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Other
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The Next Chart
shows the 1990 & 2000 average church
attendance by group for both this state and
the nation. The second chart shows the 1990
& 2000 population per church for this state
and the nation. Among states in 2000,
Arkansas has the lowest population per
church with 411 people per church, Utah is
the highest at 4,586 people per church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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1990 & 2000 New Mexico Average Church Attendance
900
794 794
800
700
600
500
1990 New Mexico
2000 New Mexico
1990 US Average
363
400
2000 US Average
331
300
171 166 172 175
200
131
117 118 124
120 115 112 115
100
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
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Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Population per Church
for State and Nation
The Next 3 Maps
show the attendance percentages for the
Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in New Mexico in 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
29
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
for each County
12.0%
Colfax
13.8%
3.7%
San Juan
18.8%
Taos
Rio Arriba
9.6%
Union
14.3%
Mora
14.1%
Harding
8.1%
Los Alamos
6.0%
McKinley
7.9%
10.2%
Santa Fe
Sandoval
15.0%
San Miguel
10.0%
8.9%
Bernalillo
20.4%
Cibola
8.4%
Valencia
Quay
22.5%
Guadalupe
7.5%
5.3%
Curry
Torrance
9.3%
De Baca
6.5%
Roosevelt
10.9%
Socorro
6.5%
Catron
2.9%
Lincoln
4.1%
Chaves
2.5%
Sierra
9.1%
Grant
3.6%
Lea
6.7%
Otero
6.6%
Dona Ana
8.0%
Eddy
6.4%
Luna
9.3%
Hidalgo
0.0% to 6.7%
6.7% to 10.0%
10.0% to 23.5%
New Mexico - 2000 Percentage of the
Population at Worship in
Catholic Churches on any Given Sunday
Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
32
The Next Map
shows the growth or decline in the percentage
of the population attending a Christian church
on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for
each county. 2 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 31 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
33
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Christian Church Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
The Next 3 Maps
show the growth or decline of attendance percentages
for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in New Mexico between 1990 and 2000.
For evangelicals, 10 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 23 counties declined. For Mainline
churches, 4 counties grew in attendance percentage,
while 29 counties declined. For Catholics, 5 counties
grew in attendance percentage, while 28 counties
declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
35
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
-37.7%
Colfax
-22.3%
-14.3%
San Juan
-31.1%
Taos
Rio Arriba
-15.9%
Union
-19.6%
Mora
-26.5%
Harding
-4.7%
Los Alamos
-12.4%
McKinley
-27.7%
Sandoval
-17.5%
Santa Fe
-21.6%
San Miguel
-10.8%
-10.1%
Bernalillo
0.9%
Cibola
-17.6%
Valencia
Quay
-12.1%
Guadalupe
-12.1%
-20.6%
Curry
Torrance
-42.2%
De Baca
-1.8%
Roosevelt
-23.2%
Socorro
-18.5%
Catron
23.4%
Lincoln
-28.8%
Chaves
-31.1%
Sierra
0.3%
Grant
8.3%
Lea
-23.9%
Otero
-16.6%
Dona Ana
-12.6%
Eddy
-14.4%
Luna
326.6%
Hidalgo
Decline
Growth
New Mexico - 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline
in Percentage of the Population in
Catholic Churches on any Given Sunday
Blueby
= Decline
© 2004
David T.Maroon
Olson = Growth
Sample - Not for Public Use
38
The Final Chart
shows the net gain in the number of churches
in New Mexico in the past decade. There was
a net gain of 98 churches. However, 371
churches were needed to keep up with
population growth from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
39
Increase in Churches in New Mexico Between 1990 & 2000
371
400
350
300
250
200
150
98
100
47
46
50
5
0
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Total Gain
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Increase Needed to
Maintain 1990 Ratio
of Churches to
Population
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The State of the Church in
New Mexico . . .

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Church attendance has grown numerically for
Evangelicals, Catholics and the Total.
As a result of population growth, the percentage of the
population attending church has decreased in all
categories, resulting in a significant 14.5% loss in the
state-wide percentage of the population that attended
church between 1990 and 2000.
A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient
net gain in the number of churches in New Mexico. Two
hundred and seventy-three additional churches needed
to have been started in the previous decade to
compensate for the decline in percentage attendance.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
41
For More Information . . .



Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional
information on the American Church.
12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm
The complete New Mexico Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UNM20.htm

The Complete Albuquerque Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Albuquerque.htm

A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, New Mexico and Albuquerque Powerpoints) is
available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/NM0.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
42
Information on the
Information
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The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend
can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who
showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest
that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The
Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been
included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches.
This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the
average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on
the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as
accurate an estimate as possible.
Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches
than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the
1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along
with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making
numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from
1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar
dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size
nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular
attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a
simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of
Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other
religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
43
This Presentation
is based on a nationwide study of American church
attendance, as reported by churches and denominations.
The database currently has average worship attendances
for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual
churches.
It also uses supplementary information (actual membership
numbers correlated with accurate membership to
attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other
denominational and independent churches. All told,
accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox
Christian churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and
perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and
increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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For More Information . . .


Presentations such as this are available for the largest
100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the
nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to
show what is happening in the American church.
Presentations are available either by direct download,
CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org
for ordering information.
To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at
[email protected].
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
45