Transcript Slide 1

The State of the Church
in Wyoming
1990-2000
Dave Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
1
This is a Sample Presentation
It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the
Christian church in Wyoming, and what the complete “State of
the Church in Wyoming” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to
encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss
together the missional challenges in Wyoming that the Church
faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for
immediate download at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UWY20.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
2
In 1996,
polls taken immediately after the Presidential election
revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted,
when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the
Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation
in activities that create acceptability within their social
group.
For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have
reported that around 45% of Americans attend church
every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual
attendance counts have shown that the
percentage of people attending church on any
given weekend is much lower than was previously
thought.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
3
The Intent
of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two
key questions:
“How Many People Really Attend Church in
Wyoming Every Week?”
“Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or
Backwards in Influence in Wyoming?”
As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of
factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in
Wyoming will begin to take shape.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
4
This study
uses weekend church attendance as a more
reliable and more immediate snapshot of
Christian influence than membership. The
following map shows the percentage of
the population attending a Christian
church on any given weekend in all 50
states in 2000. Wyoming has an
attendance percentage of (14.0%), much
lower than the national average (18.7%).
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
5
Percentage of Population Attending a Christian
Church on any Given Weekend 2000
11.8%
14.0%
NH
WA
17.5%
11.2%
13.2%
29.4%
MT
23.2%
ND
ME
VT
MN
14.5%
OR
14.4%
11.4%
24.6%
28.0%
ID
14.0%
NY
WI
SD
20.6%
WY
20.3%
CA
20.3%
15.2%
UT
IL
CO
22.7%
KS
AZ
21.7%
IN
WV
22.1%
MO
OK
NM
22.7%
NC
TN
25.0%
28.6% 16.0%
DC
DE
17.7%
MD
23.3%
SC
26.7%
MS
TX
18.0%
VA
KY
AR
19.1%
CT
NJ
17.4%
21.5%
22.0%
17.8%
16.0%
OH
23.5%
14.3%
17.2%
PA
IA
3.1%
NV
RI
20.5%
24.7%
NE
14.8%
20.1%
MI
23.8%
9.7%
MA
15.5%
26.9%
23.3%
GA
AL
29.4%
LA
15.1%
AK
15.1%
13.4%
HI
0.0% to 14.4%
14.4% to 17.5%
17.5% to 20.6%
20.6% to 23.5%
23.5% to 29.4%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
FL
6
The Next Map
shows the percentage of the population
attending a Christian church on any given
weekend in 2000 for each county in
Wyoming.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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15.1%
Sheridan
13.7%
Crook
9.8%
Big Horn
15.7%
Park
17.4%
Campbell
17.8%
Washakie
16.4%
Johnson
12.0%
Weston
14.9%
Hot Springs
7.1%
Teton
12.9%
Fremont
15.0%
Natrona
10.3%
Sublette
18.5%
Niobrara
14.2%
Converse
17.8%
Platte
5.0%
Lincoln
13.8%
Sweetwater
13.2%
Carbon
14.9%
Goshen
12.0%
Albany
16.7%
Laramie
6.7%
Uinta
Wyoming Counties - Percentage of Population Attending a
Christian Church on any Given Weekend in 2000
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
0.0% to 13.2%
13.2% to 15.7%
15.7% to 19.5%
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The Next 2 Maps
show the population numbers for each county
in Wyoming. The first map shows the
population size of each county. The second
map shows the growth or decline in
population for each county from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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26,560
Sheridan
5,887
Crook
11,461
Big Horn
25,786
Park
33,698
Campbell
8,289
Washakie
7,075
Johnson
6,644
Weston
4,882
Hot Springs
18,251
Teton
2,407
Niobrara
66,533
Natrona
35,804
Fremont
12,052
Converse
5,920
Sublette
8,807
Platte
14,573
Lincoln
15,639
Carbon
37,613
Sweetwater
12,538
Goshen
32,014
Albany
81,607
Laramie
19,742
Uinta
Wyoming - 2000 Population by County
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
0 to 10,000
10,000 to 25,000
25,000 to 81,608
10
Complete Presentation has
Map of 2000 Population
Growth for Each County
The Next 2 Maps
show the ethnicity of Wyoming in 1990 and
2000. The third slide shows the growth or
decline in the percentage of the population
for each ethnic group.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
12
1990 Ethnicity of Wyoming
Non-Hispanic White
Hispanic
6%
Non-Hispanic Black
1%
Non-Hispanic Black
Asian
1%
Hispanic
Asian
Non-Hispanic White
92%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Complete Presentation has
Graph of 2000 Ethnicity
Wyoming 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's
Percentage of the Population
50.0%
40.6%
40.0%
27.7%
30.0%
16.5%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-2.5%
-10.0%
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Asian
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The Next Graph
shows the attendance numbers for the churches in
Wyoming in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals have
increased slightly in the number of people attending
their churches. Mainline and Catholics have declined.
Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has
slowly increased, the population, on the whole, has
grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating
increasing or declining influence is the percentage of
the population attending church on any given
weekend, shown in the second graph. This graph
reflects a decrease in the percentage of the
population attending church in all categories.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Wyoming Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000
70,255
68,995
1990 Total
2000 Total
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
29941
23,395
2000 Catholic
17,438
20,000
23764
1990 Catholic
30,000
28,863
15,497
10,000
2000 Mainline
1990 Mainline
2000 Evangelical
1990 Evangelical
-
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship
Percentage by Category
The Next Graph
is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the
population at churches in each category in
2000. The “Absent” category indicates the
percentage of the population that is not
worshipping at a Christian church on any
given weekend. The second graph shows the
percentage gain or decline for each category
in Wyoming in 1990 and 2000. There has
been an 10% decline in the percentage of the
population attending church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Wyoming 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance
6.1%
3.1%
4.7%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Absent
86.0%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Wyoming - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population - 1990 &
2000
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-4.7%
-9.6%
-10.0%
-9.8%
-18.4%
-20.0%
-30.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Total
The 2 Next Charts
show the relative strength of the 8 major
denominational groups in Wyoming.
Catholics predominate in Wyoming, followed
by Baptist and Lutherans, but there has been
a significant decline in the percentage of the
population attending each denominational
family.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Complete Presentation has
Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by
Denominational Families
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Attendance by Denominational
Families
The Next Chart
shows the 1990 & 2000 average church
attendance by group for both this state and
the nation. The second chart shows the 1990
& 2000 population per church for this state
and the nation. Among states in 2000,
Arkansas has the lowest population per
church with 411 people per church, Utah is
the highest at 4,586 people per church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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1990 & 2000 Wyoming Average Church Attendance
900
794 794
800
700
600
500
1990 Wyoming
2000 Wyoming
1990 US Average
400
2000 US Average
321 320
300
172 175
200
124 131
100
74
76
94
112 115
108 106
85
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
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Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Population per Church
for State and Nation
The Next 3 Maps
show the attendance percentages for the
Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Wyoming in 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
28
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
for each County
5.8%
Sheridan
3.1%
Crook
2.1%
Big Horn
3.8%
Park
5.7%
Campbell
4.2%
Washakie
6.2%
Johnson
3.5%
Weston
3.1%
Hot Springs
2.8%
Teton
3.3%
Fremont
4.4%
Niobrara
4.4%
Natrona
5.5%
Converse
3.8%
Sublette
4.9%
Platte
3.3%
Lincoln
7.8%
Sweetwater
4.4%
Carbon
3.2%
Goshen
3.7%
Albany
6.3%
Laramie
2.7%
Uinta
Wyoming Counties - Percentage of Population Attending a
Catholic Church on any Given Weekend in 2000
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
0.0% to 3.5%
3.5% to 4.9%
4.9% to 8.8%
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The Next Map
shows the growth or decline in the percentage
of the population attending a Christian church
on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for
each county. 4 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 19 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
32
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Christian Church Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
The Next 3 Maps
show the growth or decline of attendance percentages
for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Wyoming between 1990 and 2000.
For evangelicals, 11 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 12 counties declined. For mainline
churches, 1 counties grew in attendance percentage,
while 22 counties declined. For Catholics, 9 counties
grew in attendance percentage, while 14 counties
declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
15%
Sheridan
113%
Crook
-38%
Big Horn
100%
Park
-17%
Campbell
-11%
Washakie
-5%
Johnson
-25%
Weston
13%
Hot Springs
34%
Teton
-28%
Fremont
4%
Niobrara
-19%
Natrona
22%
Converse
-18%
Sublette
21%
Platte
-39%
Lincoln
-9%
Sweetwater
-26%
Carbon
-29%
Goshen
-5%
Albany
-9%
Laramie
24%
Uinta
Wyoming Counties 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the
Population at Worship in Catholic Churches on a Given Weekend
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Decline
Increase
37
The Final Chart
shows the net gain in the number of churches
in Wyoming in the past decade. There was a
net gain of 0 churches. However, 58 churches
were needed to keep up with population
growth in Wyoming from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
38
Increase in Churches in Wyoming Between 1990 & 2000
58
60
50
40
30
20
10
4
0
0
-2
-1
Mainline
Catholic
-10
Evangelical
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Total Gain
Increase Needed to
Maintain 1990 Ratio of
Churches to Population
The State of the Church in
Wyoming . . .


While church attendance has grown for Evangelicals,
and declined for the Catholic and mainline church, the
state population has grown. As a result, the
percentage of the population attending church has
decreased. This has resulted in a 10% loss in the statewide percentage of the population that attended church
between 1990 and 2000.
A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient
net gain in the number of churches in Wyoming. Fiftyeight additional churches needed to have been started
in the previous decade to compensate for the decline in
percentage attendance.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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For More Information . . .



Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org
for additional information on the
American Church.
12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm
The complete Wyoming Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UWY20.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
41
Information on the
Information
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The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend
can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who
showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest
that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The
Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been
included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches.
This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the
average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on
the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as
accurate an estimate as possible.
Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches
than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the
1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along
with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making
numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from
1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar
dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size
nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular
attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a
simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of
Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other
religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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This Presentation
is based on a nationwide study of American church
attendance, as reported by churches and denominations.
The database currently has average worship attendances
for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual
churches.
It also uses supplementary information (actual membership
numbers correlated with accurate membership to
attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other
denominational and independent churches. All told,
accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox
Christian churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and
perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and
increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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For More Information . . .


Presentations such as this are available for the largest
100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the
nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to
show what is happening in the American church.
Presentations are available either by direct download,
CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org
for ordering information.
To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at
[email protected].
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
44