Transcript Slide 1

The State of the Church
in Wisconsin
1990-2000
Dave Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
1
This is a Sample Presentation
It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the
Christian church in Wisconsin, and what the complete “State
of the Church in Wisconsin” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is
to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and
discuss together the missional challenges in Wisconsin that
the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is
available for immediate download at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UWI20.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
2
In 1996,
polls taken immediately after the Presidential election
revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted,
when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the
Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation
in activities that create acceptability within their social
group.
For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have
reported that around 45% of Americans attend church
every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual
attendance counts have shown that the
percentage of people attending church on any
given weekend is much lower than was previously
thought.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
3
The Intent
of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two
key questions:
“How Many People Really Attend Church in
Wisconsin Every Week?”
“Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or
Backwards in Influence in Wisconsin?”
As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of
factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in
Wisconsin will begin to take shape.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
4
This study
uses weekend church attendance as a more
reliable and more immediate snapshot of
Christian influence than membership. The
following map shows the percentage of the
population attending a Christian church on any
given weekend in all 50 states in 2000.
Wisconsin has an average church attendance
percentage (24.6%) much higher than the
national average (18.7%).
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
5
Percentage of Population Attending a Christian
Church on any Given Weekend 2000
11.8%
14.0%
NH
WA
17.5%
11.2%
13.2%
29.4%
MT
23.2%
ND
ME
VT
MN
14.5%
OR
14.4%
11.4%
24.6%
28.0%
ID
14.0%
NY
WI
SD
20.6%
WY
20.3%
CA
20.3%
15.2%
UT
IL
CO
22.7%
KS
AZ
21.7%
IN
WV
22.1%
MO
OK
NM
22.7%
NC
TN
25.0%
28.6% 16.0%
DC
DE
17.7%
MD
23.3%
SC
26.7%
MS
TX
18.0%
VA
KY
AR
19.1%
CT
NJ
17.4%
21.5%
22.0%
17.8%
16.0%
OH
23.5%
14.3%
17.2%
PA
IA
3.1%
NV
RI
20.5%
24.7%
NE
14.8%
20.1%
MI
23.8%
9.7%
MA
15.5%
26.9%
23.3%
GA
AL
29.4%
LA
15.1%
AK
15.1%
13.4%
HI
0.0% to 14.4%
14.4% to 17.5%
17.5% to 20.6%
20.6% to 23.5%
23.5% to 29.4%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
FL
6
The Next Map
shows the percentage of the population
attending a Christian church on any given
weekend in 2000 for each county in
Wisconsin.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
7
20.7%
12.9%
Bayfield
Douglas
10.8%
Iron
21.4%
19.7%
Vilas
Ashland
16.6%
17.1%
22.6%
Burnett
Washburn
Sawyer
17.6%
Florence
18.5%
Price
20.0%
Polk
22.3%
Oneida
Forest
18.9%
Rusk
21.8%
Barron
19.8%
22.9%
Lincoln
19.0%
Langlade
19.0%
Chippewa
26.9%
Pepin
Wisconsin Counties
2000 Percentage
of Population at
Worship in
All Christian
Churches on
an Given Weekend
Blue = Lowest
Rose = Middle
Beige = Highest
34.2%
Door
31.7%
29.1%
23.8%
Eau Claire
Pierce
25.1%
Oconto
Menominee
29.4%
Marathon
Dunn
22.1%
32.9%
23.7%
Taylor
23.8%
20.8%
Saint Croix
32.6%
Marinette
Shawano
Clark
28.4%
32.1%
27.2%
32.2%
Buffalo
Wood
Portage
Waupaca
17.5%
33.8%
Brown
39.9%
Outagamie
36.3%
Kewaunee
Jackson
27.2%
Trempealeau
21.8%
11.4%
Monroe
La Crosse
24.0%
Juneau
24.1%
37.4%
Manitowoc
Winnebago Calumet
Adams
26.0%
25.6%
25.3%
Waushara
25.5%
27.7%
Marquette 43.2%
Green Lake
28.3%
Sheboygan
Fond Du Lac
25.0%
Vernon
28.7%
27.5%
17.1%
Richland
26.0%
Columbia
Dodge
Sauk
25.3%
Crawford
24.4%
26.7%
Dane
Iowa
23.6%
26.7%
Washington
Ozaukee
34.7%
21.5%
21.0%
Jefferson
Waukesha
Milwaukee
39.1%
Grant
0.0% to 21.8%
21.8% to 26.9%
26.9% to 44.2%
33.9%
19.5%
22.7%
Lafayette
Green
Rock
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
17.3%
Walworth
21.2%
Racine
18.5%
Kenosha
8
The Next 2 Maps
show the population numbers for each county
in Wisconsin. The first map shows the
population size of each county. The second
map shows the growth or decline in
population for each county from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
9
43,287
15,013
Bayfield
Douglas
6,861
16,866
Iron
21,033
Vilas
Ashland
15,674
16,036
16,196
Burnett
Washburn
Sawyer
41,319
Polk
5,088
Florence
15,822
36,776
Price
Oneida
10,024
Forest
15,347
44,963
Barron
29,641
Lincoln
39,858
Langlade
Chippewa
93,142
Eau Claire
Pierce
7,213
Pepin
35,634
Oconto
Buffalo
27,961
Door
40,664
33,557
Clark
Shawano
75,555
Wood
13,804
19,100
67,182
Portage
51,731
Waupaca
160,971
Outagamie
226,778
20,187
Kewaunee
Brown
Jackson
27,010
Trempealeau
82,887
23,154
18,643
Monroe
La Crosse
156,763
Waushara
24,316
Juneau
40,631
Manitowoc
Winnebago Calumet
Adams
40,899
107,120
Wisconsin Counties
2000 Population
4,562
Menominee
125,834
Marathon
Dunn
36,804
20,740
19,680
Taylor
55,195
63,155
Saint Croix
43,384
Marinette
Rusk
15,832
97,296
Marquette 19,105
Fond Du Lac
Green Lake
112,646
Sheboygan
28,056
Vernon
52,468
55,225
17,924
Richland
85,897
Dodge
Columbia
Sauk
17,243
Crawford
22,780
117,493
Washington
426,526
Dane
74,021
940,164
360,767
Jefferson Waukesha
Iowa
82,317
Ozaukee
Milwaukee
49,597
0 to 20,000
20,000 to 100,000
100,000 to 1,000,000
Grant
16,137
Lafayette
33,647
Green
152,307
Rock
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
93,759
Walworth
188,831
Racine
149,577
Kenosha
10
Complete Presentation has
Map of 2000 Population
Growth for Each County
The Next 2 Maps
show the ethnicity of Wisconsin in 1990 and
2000. The third slide shows the growth or
decline in the percentage of the population
for each ethnic group.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
12
1990 Ethnicity of Wisconsin
Asian
1%
Hispanic
2%
Non-Hispanic Black
5%
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
Asian
White
© 2004 byNon-Hispanic
David T. Olson
92%
Sample - Not for Public Use
13
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 2000 Ethnicity
Wisconsin 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's
Percentage of the Population
120.0%
100.8%
100.0%
75.9%
80.0%
60.0%
40.0%
19.8%
20.0%
0.0%
-4.5%
-20.0%
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Asian
15
The Next Graph
shows the attendance numbers for the churches in
Wisconsin in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals have
grown in attendance, Mainline and Catholics have
significantly declined. Unfortunately, as overall
worship attendance has declined, the population has
grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating
increasing or declining influence is the percentage of
the population attending church on any given
weekend, shown in the second graph. This graph
reflects a significant decrease in the percentage of
the population attending church among all three
groups.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
16
Wisconsin Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000
1,600,000
1,473,706
1,320,164
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
822,133
800,000
663,845
600,000
407,170
388,049
400,000
257,600 243,584
200,000
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
2000 Total
1990 Total
2000 Catholic
1990 Catholic
2000 Mainline
1990 Mainline
2000 Evangelical
1990 Evangelical
-
17
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship
Percentage by Category
The Next Graph
is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the
population at churches in each category in
2000. The “Absent” category indicates the
percentage of the population that is not
worshipping at a Christian church on any
given weekend. The second graph shows the
percentage gain or decline for each category
in Wisconsin in 1990 and 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
19
Wisconsin 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance
7.1%
4.5%
11.6%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Absent
76.8%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
20
Wisconsin - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population 1990-2000
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-4.3%
-10.0%
-13.8%
-18.3%
-20.0%
-26.4%
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
21
The 2 Next Charts
show the relative strength of the 8 major
denominational groups in Wisconsin. The
first chart illustrates the strong influence of
the Catholic church, followed by the Lutheran
church. The second chart shows the
significant decline of all denominations in
Wisconsin, with the exception of the
Pentecostal and Three Sisters churches.
(The 3 Sisters are 3 similar evangelical denominations originally from Sweden, the Baptist
General Conference, the Evangelical Free Church and the Evangelical Covenant Church.)
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
22
Complete Presentation has
Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by
Denominational Families
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Attendance by Denominational
Families
The Next Chart
shows the 1990 & 2000 average church
attendance by group for both this state and
the nation. The second chart shows the 1990
& 2000 population per church for this state
and the nation. Among states in 2000,
Arkansas has the lowest population per
church with 411 people per church, Utah is
the highest at 4,586 people per church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
25
1990 & 2000 Wisconsin Average Church Attendance
900
849
794 794
800
755
700
600
500
1990 Wisconsin
2000 Wisconsin
1990 US Average
400
2000 US Average
267
300
200
154 156
242
172 175
124 131
130 126
112 115
100
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
26
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Population per Church
for State and Nation
The Next 3 Maps
show the attendance percentages for the
Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Wisconsin in 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
28
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
for each County
6.1%
4.9%
Bayfield
Douglas
7.1%
Iron
9.2%
7.9%
Vilas
Ashland
2.5%
4.0%
6.5%
Burnett
Washburn
Sawyer
11.1%
Florence
7.9%
Price
3.0%
Polk
9.1%
Oneida
Forest
6.0%
Rusk
5.0%
Barron
12.5%
5.8%
Lincoln
4.9%
Langlade
16.7%
Chippewa
9.8%
Wisconsin Counties
2000 Percentage
of Population at
Worship in
All Catholic
Churches on
an Given Weekend
Blue = Lowest
Rose = Middle
Beige = Highest
14.4%
Pepin
14.3%
Oconto
Menominee
15.7%
Marathon
Dunn
Pierce
19.5%
10.9%
Taylor
12.8%
8.0%
Saint Croix
18.2%
Marinette
Door
12.6%
13.6%
8.3%
Eau Claire
17.4%
Shawano
Clark
11.3%
17.1%
20.3%
11.1%
Buffalo
Wood
Portage
Waupaca
3.6%
24.6%
Outagamie
27.2%
Kewaunee
24.8%
Brown
Jackson
13.6%
Trempealeau
8.1%
6.4%
Monroe
La Crosse
Waushara
24.7%
Manitowoc
11.1%
10.4%
Juneau
16.2%
Winnebago Calumet
Adams
10.8%
12.6%
13.2%
13.7%
Marquette 19.8%
Green Lake
Fond Du Lac
16.7%
Sheboygan
5.2%
Vernon
13.8%
12.2%
6.2%
Richland
7.0%
Columbia
Dodge
Sauk
14.6%
Crawford
14.5%
16.9%
Dane
Iowa
13.2%
13.2%
Washington
Ozaukee
15.0%
6.5%
9.4%
Jefferson
Waukesha
Milwaukee
29.1%
Grant
0.0% to 9.1%
9.1% to 13.7%
13.7% to 30.1%
23.0%
6.6%
10.5%
Lafayette
Green
Rock
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
7.9%
Walworth
9.1%
Racine
10.2%
Kenosha
31
The Next Map
shows the growth or decline in the percentage
of the population attending a Christian church
on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for
each county. 3 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 69 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
32
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Christian Church Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
The Next 3 Maps
show the growth or decline of attendance percentages
for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Wisconsin between 1990 and 2000.
For evangelicals, 27 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 45 counties declined. For Mainline
churches, 4 counties grew in attendance percentage,
while 67 counties declined. For Catholics, 5 counties
grew in attendance percentage, while 67 counties
declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
34
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
-12.7%
23.4%
Bayfield
Douglas
-22.6%
Iron
-24.9%
-55.7%
Vilas
Ashland
-47.8%
-33.7%
-28.6%
Burnett
Washburn
Sawyer
-32.0%
Florence
-20.8%
Price
9.0%
Polk
49.3%
Oneida
Forest
-18.1%
Rusk
-13.6%
Barron
-32.7%
-20.9%
Lincoln
Saint Croix
-57.8%
Langlade
-31.3%
Chippewa
Menominee
-26.2%
Marathon
Dunn
-57.8%
Pepin
-16.0%
Door
Shawano
Clark
-18.4%
-25.2%
Buffalo
Wood
-48.3%
-38.4%
-5.1%
Portage
Waupaca
-21.8%
Brown
-24.3%
Outagamie
-35.5%
Kewaunee
Jackson
-35.6%
Trempealeau
Wisconsin Counties
1990 - 2000 Increase or
Decline in Percentage
of the Population at
Worship in Catholic
Churches on any
Given Weekend
Blue = Decline
Rose = Increase
-29.9%
Oconto
-28.3%
-29.2%
-22.5%
Eau Claire
-8.3%
Pierce
-26.1%
-13.7%
Taylor
-31.6%
-28.4%
-8.3%
Marinette
-17.2%
-55.6%
Monroe
La Crosse
-30.4%
Juneau
-29.7%
-18.9%
Manitowoc
Winnebago Calumet
Adams
-32.0%
-10.6%
-20.2%
Waushara
-20.1%
-36.3%
Marquette -25.5%
Green Lake
-45.1%
Sheboygan
Fond Du Lac
-17.7%
Vernon
-5.5%
29.8%
-33.8%
-39.9%
Columbia
Dodge
Sauk
Richland
-33.0%
Crawford
-6.6%
-16.2%
Dane
Iowa
-24.1%
-30.2%
Washington
Ozaukee
-3.7%
-26.6%
-33.0%
Jefferson
Waukesha
Milwaukee
-5.5%
Grant
Decline
Growth
2.9%
-26.9%
-17.8%
Lafayette
Green
Rock
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
-34.5%
Walworth
-35.9%
Racine
-28.2%
Kenosha
37
The Final Chart
shows the net gain in the number of churches
in Wisconsin in the past decade. There was a
net loss of 59 churches. However, 532
churches were needed to keep up with
population growth in Wisconsin from 1990 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
38
Increase in Number of Churches in Wisconsin Between 1990 & 2000
532
600
500
400
300
200
88
100
0
-58
-59
-89
-100
-200
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Total Gain
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Increase Needed to
Maintain 1990 Ratio
of Churches to
Population
39
The State of the Church in
Wisconsin . . .



With the exception of Evangelical churches, church
attendance has fallen numerically in Wisconsin. Traditionally,
Catholics have had a very strong influence in Wisconsin. As
Catholics have declined significantly over the last decade, the
church as a whole has declined greatly as well.
As a result of population growth, the percentage of the
population attending church has decreased in all categories,
resulting in a significant 18% loss in the state-wide
percentage of the population that attended church between
1990 and 2000.
A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net
gain in the number of churches in Wisconsin. Five hundred
and ninety-one additional churches needed to have been
started in the previous decade to compensate for the decline
in percentage attendance.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
40
For More Information . . .



Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for
additional information on the American Church.
12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm
The complete Wisconsin Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UWI20.htm

The Complete Milwaukee Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Milwaukee.htm

The Complete Madison Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Madison.htm

A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Wisconsin, Milwaukee and Madison
Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/WI0.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
41
Information on the
Information







The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend
can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who
showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest
that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The
Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been
included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches.
This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the
average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on
the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as
accurate an estimate as possible.
Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches
than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the
1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along
with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making
numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from
1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar
dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size
nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular
attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a
simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of
Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other
religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
42
This Presentation
is based on a nationwide study of American church
attendance, as reported by churches and denominations.
The database currently has average worship attendances
for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual
churches.
It also uses supplementary information (actual membership
numbers correlated with accurate membership to
attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other
denominational and independent churches. All told,
accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox
Christian churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and
perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and
increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
43
For More Information . . .


Presentations such as this are available for the largest
100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the
nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to
show what is happening in the American church.
Presentations are available either by direct download,
CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org
for ordering information.
To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at
[email protected].
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
44