Transcript Slide 1

The State of the Church
in Arizona
1990-2000
Dave Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
1
This is a Sample Presentation
It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the
Christian church in Arizona, and what the complete “State of
the Church in Arizona” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to
encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss
together the missional challenges in Arizona that the Church
faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for
immediate download at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UAZ20.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
2
In 1996,
polls taken immediately after the Presidential election
revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted,
when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the
Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation
in activities that create acceptability within their social
group.
For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have
reported that around 45% of Americans attend church
every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual
attendance counts have shown that the
percentage of people attending church on any
given weekend is much lower than was previously
thought.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
3
The Intent
of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two
key questions:
“How Many People Really Attend Church in
Arizona Every Week?”
“Is the Christian Church Going Forward or
Backwards in Influence in Arizona?”
As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of
factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in
Arizona will begin to take shape.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
4
This study
uses weekend church attendance as a more
reliable and more immediate snapshot of
Christian influence than membership. The
following map shows the percentage of the
population attending a Christian church on any
given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Arizona
has an attendance percentage (14.3%) that is
much lower than the average for the nation
(18.7%).
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
5
Percentage of Population Attending a Christian
Church on any Given Weekend 2000
11.8%
14.0%
NH
WA
17.5%
11.2%
13.2%
29.4%
MT
23.2%
ND
ME
VT
MN
14.5%
OR
14.4%
11.4%
24.6%
28.0%
ID
14.0%
NY
WI
SD
20.6%
WY
20.3%
CA
20.3%
15.2%
UT
IL
CO
22.7%
KS
AZ
21.7%
IN
WV
22.1%
MO
OK
NM
22.7%
NC
TN
25.0%
28.6% 16.0%
DC
DE
17.7%
MD
23.3%
SC
26.7%
MS
TX
18.0%
VA
KY
AR
19.1%
CT
NJ
17.4%
21.5%
22.0%
17.8%
16.0%
OH
23.5%
14.3%
17.2%
PA
IA
3.1%
NV
RI
20.5%
24.7%
NE
14.8%
20.1%
MI
23.8%
9.7%
MA
15.5%
26.9%
23.3%
GA
AL
29.4%
LA
15.1%
AK
15.1%
13.4%
HI
0.0% to 14.4%
14.4% to 17.5%
17.5% to 20.6%
20.6% to 23.5%
23.5% to 29.4%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
FL
6
The Next Map
shows the percentage of the population
attending a Christian church on any given
weekend in 2000 for each county in Arizona.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
7
Arizona Counties
Percentage of Population
in 2000 at Christian churches
on any Given Weekend
Beige = High
Rose = Medium
Blue = Low
12.3%
Coconino
8.6%
Mohave
8.4%
Navajo
13.5%
Apache
13.5%
Yavapai
8.1%
La Paz
14.8%
Gila
14.7%
Maricopa
13.7%
Graham
12.4%
Pinal
13.8%
Yuma
0.0% to 13.5%
16.2%
Pima
15.6%
Cochise
13.5% to 14.8%
14.8% to 25.3%
21.7%
Santa Cruz
24.3%
Greenlee
The Next 2 Maps
show the population numbers for each county
in Arizona. The first map shows the
population size of each county. The second
map shows the growth or decline in
population for each county from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
9
Arizona Counties
Population
116,320
Coconino
155,032
Mohave
97,470
Navajo
69,423
Apache
167,517
Yavapai
19,715
La Paz
51,335
Gila
3,072,149
Maricopa
179,727
Pinal
33,489
Graham
160,026
Yuma
843,746
Pima
117,755
Cochise
0 to 69,423
69,423 to 160,026
160,026 to 3,072,150
38,381
Santa Cruz
8,547
Greenlee
Complete Presentation has
Map of 2000 Population
Growth for Each County
The Next 2 Slides
show the ethnicity of Arizona in 1990 and 2000.
The third slide shows the grow of decline in
the percentage of the population for each
ethnic group.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
12
1990 Ethnicity of Arizona
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Asian
2%
Hispanic
Asian
Hispanic
20%
Non-Hispanic Black
3%
Non-Hispanic White
75%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Complete Presentation has
Graph of 2000 Ethnicity
Arizona 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's
Percentage of the Population
54.0%
60.0%
50.0%
36.0%
40.0%
30.0%
14.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-11.1%
-20.0%
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Asian
15
The Next Graph
shows the attendance numbers for the churches in
Arizona in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is the
strong growth of Evangelical and Catholic churches
and the slight growth Mainline churches.
Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has
remained quite stable, the population has grown
dramatically. A more reliable standard for evaluating
increasing or declining influence is the percentage of
the population attending church on any given
weekend, shown in the second graph.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
16
Arizona Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000
800,000
733,122
700,000
598,561
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
335,181
290,438
267,766
228,930
200,000
98,583
103,999
100,000
© 2004 by David T. Olson
2000 Total
1990 Total
2000 Catholic
1990 Catholic
2000 Mainline
1990 Mainline
2000 Evangelical
1990 Evangelical
-
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship
Percentage by Category
The Next Graph
is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the
population at churches in each category in
2000. The “Absent” category indicates the
percentage of the population that is not
worshipping at a Christian church on any
given weekend. The second graph shows the
percentage gain or decline for each category
in Arizona in 1990 and 2000. Most
noteworthy is the percentage decline of all
three groups.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Arizona 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance
Evangelical
7% Mainline
2%
Catholic
6%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Absent
Absent
85%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Arizona - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population 19902000
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-9.4%
-10.6%
-12.5%
-20.0%
-24.6%
-30.0%
-40.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Total
The 3 Next Charts
show the relative strength of the 8 major
denominational groups in Arizona. The Pie
Chart shows Catholics are the predominate
group in Arizona. The second and third charts
show that all groups have declined with the
exception of the Pentecostals.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
22
Complete Presentation has
Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by
Denominational Families
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Attendance by Denominational
Families
1990 & 2000 Increase or Decline in the Percentage of the Population
in a Christian Church on any Given Weekend by Denominational Family
15.0%
9.9%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
Reformed
Pentecostal
Christian
Catholic
Other
-5.0%
-8.0%
-9.4%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-14.7%
-15.9%
-20.0%
-21.1%
-25.0%
-25.6%
-27.1%
-30.0%
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
Reformed
Pentecostal
Christian
Catholic
Other
The Next Chart
shows the 1990 & 2000 average church
attendance by group for both this state and
the nation. The second chart shows the 1990
& 2000 population per church for this state
and the nation. This shows how many people
live in this state for every Christian church.
Among states in 2000, Arkansas is the lowest
at 411 people per church, while Utah is the
highest at 4,586 people per church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
26
1990 & 2000 Arizona Average Church Attendance
1,200
1,088
1,000
942
794 794
800
1990 Arizona
600
2000 Arizona
1990 US Average
2000 US Average
400
221
198 208
200
138
157
124 131
251
172 175
112 115
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
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Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Population per Church
for State and Nation
The Next 3 Maps
show the attendance percentages for the
Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Arizona in 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
29
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
for each County
Arizona Counties
Percentage of Population
in 2000 at Catholic churches
on any Given Weekend
Beige = High
Rose = Medium
Blue = Low
3.6%
Coconino
2.8%
Mohave
2.3%
Navajo
8.6%
Apache
3.1%
Yavapai
2.3%
La Paz
4.4%
Gila
5.0%
Maricopa
9.5%
Graham
5.3%
Pinal
7.0%
Yuma
0.0% to 4.4%
8.0%
Pima
6.5%
Cochise
4.4% to 8.0%
8.0% to 18.4%
17.4%
Santa Cruz
17.3%
Greenlee
The Next Map
shows the growth or decline in the percentage
of the population attending a Christian church
on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for
each county. 4 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 11 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
33
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Christian Church Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
The Next 3 Maps
show the growth or decline of attendance percentages
for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Arizona between 1990 and 2000. For
evangelicals, 4 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 11 counties declined. For mainline
churches, 1 counties grew in attendance percentage,
while 14 counties declined. For Catholics, 5 counties
grew in attendance percentage, while 10 counties
declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
35
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Mainline Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
Arizona Counties
Growth or Decline in
Percentage of Population
at Catholic churches
from 1990 - 2000
Rose = Growth
Blue = Decline
-36.8%
Mohave
-48.7%
Coconino
-0.5%
Navajo
151.8%
Apache
-25.0%
Yavapai
-81.8%
La Paz
-68.4%
Gila
-2.4%
Maricopa
-33.2%
Pinal
12.8%
Graham
21.7%
Yuma
-13.5%
Pima
Decline
Growth
-34.4%
Cochise
17.1%
Santa Cruz
61.0%
Greenlee
The Final Chart
shows the net gain in the number of churches
in Arizona in the past decade. There was a
net gain of 220 churches. However, to keep
up with the population growth in Arizona,
there would have needed to have been an
additional 842 more churches started from
1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Increase in Number of Churches in Arizona Between 1990 & 2000
1200
1082
1000
800
600
400
220
189
200
3
24
0
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Total Gain
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Increase Needed to
Maintain 1990 Ratio
of Churches to
Population
40
The State of the Church in
Arizona . . .
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Because of strong population growth in Arizona, the
church has both great opportunities and great
challenges.
While church attendance has grown for all three
groups, the percentage of the population attending
church has been declining because of the strong
population growth of Arizona. This resulted in a 12.5%
loss in the state-wide percentage of the population that
attended church between 1990 and 2000.
A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient
net gain in the number of churches in Arizona. If the
present decade is to rectify that state-wide, 842 more
churches would need to be started in the state than in
the previous decade.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
41
For More Information . . .



Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for
additional information on the American Church.
12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm
The complete Arizona Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UAR20.htm

The Complete Phoenix Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Phoenix.htm

The Complete Tucson Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Tucson.htm

A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Arizona, Phoenix and Tucson Powerpoints) is
available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/AZ0.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
42
Information on the
Information
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The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend
can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who
showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest
that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The
Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been
included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches.
This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the
average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on
the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as
accurate an estimate as possible.
Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches
than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the
1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along
with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making
numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from
1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar
dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size
nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular
attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a
simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of
Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other
religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
43
This Presentation
is based on a nationwide study of American church
attendance, as reported by churches and denominations.
The database currently has average worship attendances
for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual
churches.
It also uses supplementary information (actual membership
numbers correlated with accurate membership to
attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other
denominational and independent churches. All told,
accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox
Christian churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and
perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and
increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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For More Information . . .


Presentations such as this are available for the largest
100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the
nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to
show what is happening in the American church.
Presentations are available either by direct download,
CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org
for ordering information.
To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at
[email protected].
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
45