Transcript Slide 1
The State of the Church in Illinois 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 1 This is a Sample Presentation It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the Christian church in Illinois, and what the complete “State of the Church in Illinois” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss together the missional challenges in Illinois that the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UIL20.htm © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 2 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 3 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in Illinois Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Illinois?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Illinois will begin to take shape. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 4 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Illinois has an attendance percentage (20.3%) that is higher than the average for the nation (18.7%). © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 5 Percentage of Population Attending a Christian Church on any Given Weekend 2000 11.8% 14.0% NH WA 17.5% 11.2% 13.2% 29.4% MT 23.2% ND ME VT MN 14.5% OR 14.4% 11.4% 24.6% 28.0% ID 14.0% NY WI SD 20.6% WY 20.3% CA 20.3% 15.2% UT IL CO 22.7% KS AZ 21.7% IN WV 22.1% MO OK NM 22.7% NC TN 25.0% 28.6% 16.0% DC DE 17.7% MD 23.3% SC 26.7% MS TX 18.0% VA KY AR 19.1% CT NJ 17.4% 21.5% 22.0% 17.8% 16.0% OH 23.5% 14.3% 17.2% PA IA 3.1% NV RI 20.5% 24.7% NE 14.8% 20.1% MI 23.8% 9.7% MA 15.5% 26.9% 23.3% GA AL 29.4% LA 15.1% AK 15.1% 13.4% HI 0.0% to 14.4% 14.4% to 17.5% 17.5% to 20.6% 20.6% to 23.5% 23.5% to 29.4% © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use FL 6 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Illinois. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 7 27.6% 26.7% 20.8% 13.5% 14.8% 18.2% Jo Daviess Stephenson Winnebago Boone McHenry Lake 21.2% 20.6% Carroll Ogle 19.2% 15.6% 25.8% 22.8% Whiteside Lee Cook 18.3% Kendall Rock Island 24.7% Henry Bureau 16.5% 16.7% 43.8% 20.1% 18.4% Henderson Warren 26.6% 17.4% La Salle Grundy 21.6% Putnam 25.2% Stark 14.2% 19.5% Will 23.0% Mercer Kankakee Marshall 25.1% Knox 20.6% 23.7% McDonough Fulton 27.7% 18.5% Du Page 23.8% Hancock 21.4% Kane De Kalb 23.3% 25.9% Peoria Woodford Livingston 24.3% 20.6% Iroquois Ford 20.7% 22.7% Tazewell McLean 25.2% Mason 26.2% 29.8% Schuyler 31.1% 22.6% Adams Brown 41.2% 32.4% 23.3% Logan 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship in All Christian Churches on an Given Weekend Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest Pike 33.3% Macon Sangamon 20.0% Moultrie 30.9% 21.9% Calhoun Macoupin 19.8% 23.6% Montgomery Cumberland Clark 23.2% 35.9% Jersey 23.8% 25.3% 21.4% Effingham Fayette Bond 34.2% Madison 32.6% 26.9% 22.4% Saint Clair 26.6% Edgar 29.3% Shelby 20.9% 31.7% Coles Greene Clay 37.7% 28.1% Jasper Crawford 32.5% 30.6% Richland Lawrence Marion Clinton 31.3% 23.1% Washington 30.9% 41.8% 28.2% Wayne Wabash Edwards Jefferson Monroe 19.3% 23.6% 25.7% Perry Randolph 21.2% 32.1% Hamilton White Franklin 18.1% Jackson 19.1% 18.9% 16.8% Williamson Saline Gallatin 13.0% 21.3% Union 24.5% 25.1% Johnson 35.1% Pulaski Alexander © 2004 by David T. Olson Douglas 18.8% 26.2% Christian 33.7% 27.1% Vermilion 25.5% 23.8% 28.0% Morgan Scott 34.9% Champaign Piatt Menard Cass 28.7% Illinois Counties 22.5% Dewitt 20.9% Hardin 18.3% 23.2%Pope Massac 0.0% to 21.4% 21.4% to 26.2% 26.2% to 44.8% The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Illinois. The first map shows the population of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000. The blue counties declined in population. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 9 22,289 48,979 278,418 41,786 260,077 644,356 Jo Daviess Stephenson Winnebago Boone McHenry Lake 16,674 51,032 Carroll Ogle 404,119 88,969 60,653 36,062 Whiteside Lee Du Page 5,376,741 Kendall Rock Island 502,266 51,020 35,503 Henry Bureau 6,086 16,957 6,332 Mercer 55,836 Henderson Warren Hancock 37,535 La Salle Grundy 103,833 Kankakee Marshall 39,678 Knox 35,469 183,433 32,913 38,250 McDonough Fulton Livingston 31,334 14,241 Woodford Peoria 20,121 Will 111,509 Putnam 13,180 Stark 18,735 Cook 54,544 149,374 8,213 904,161 Kane De Kalb Iroquois Ford 128,485 150,433 Tazewell McLean 16,038 Mason 7,189 68,277 Schuyler 13,695 6,950 Adams Brown 16,798 31,183 12,486 Logan 19,922 Macon Sangamon Douglas 14,287 35,372 53,196 Moultrie Christian 22,893 Illinois Counties 30,652 11,253 Macoupin Montgomery Cumberland Clark 2000 Population 21,668 34,264 Jersey 21,802 17,633 258,941 Fayette Bond 14,560 Saint Clair 27,619 20,452 Jasper Crawford 16,149 15,452 Richland Lawrence Marion Clinton 15,148 40,045 Washington 17,151 6,971 12,937 Wayne Wabash Edwards Jefferson Monroe 23,094 33,893 39,018 Perry Randolph 8,621 15,371 Hamilton White Franklin 59,612 Jackson 61,296 26,733 6,445 Williamson Saline Gallatin 4,800 18,293 12,878 Union 9,590 © 2004 by David T. Olson Clay 41,691 35,535 10,117 Effingham Madison 256,082 Edgar 17,008 49,019 Greene Calhoun 19,704 Coles Shelby 14,761 5,084 83,919 Vermilion 114,706 188,951 Pike Champaign Piatt Menard Cass 36,616 5,537 Morgan Scott 17,384 179,669 Dewitt 16,365 Johnson 7,348 Pulaski Alexander Hardin 4,413 15,161Pope Massac 0 to 20,000 20,000 to 50,000 50,000 to 5,376,742 Complete Presentation has Map of 2000 Population Growth for Each County The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of Illinois in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 12 1990 Ethnicity of Illinois Non-Hispanic White Hispanic 8% Non-Hispanic Black Asian 2% Hispanic Asian Non-Hispanic Black 15% Non-Hispanic White 75% © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 13 Complete Presentation has Graph of 2000 Ethnicity Illinois 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's Percentage of the Population 70.0% 60.3% 60.0% 50.5% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 4.5% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -9.5% -20.0% Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Asian 15 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Illinois in 1990 and 2000. Evangelical churches have grown slightly and Mainline and Catholic churches have declined. Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has remained quite stable, the population has grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 16 Illinois Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000 3,000,000 2,259,260 2,242,034 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,011,089 802,649 832,940 995,858 1,000,000 426,046 394,125 500,000 © 2004 by David T. Olson 2000 Total 1990 Total 2000 Catholic 1990 Catholic 2000 Mainline 1990 Mainline 2000 Evangelical 1990 Evangelical - Complete Presentation has Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship Percentage by Category The Next Graph is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Illinois in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is the percentage decline of all three groups. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 19 Illinois 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance Evangelical 8% Mainline 3% Catholic 9% Evangelical Mainline Catholic Absent Absent 80% © 2004 by David T. Olson Illinois - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population 19902000 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -2.9% -9.5% -10.0% -14.3% -13.2% -20.0% -30.0% Evangelical Mainline Catholic © 2004 by David T. Olson Total The 3 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Illinois. The Pie Chart shows how much Catholics predominate in Illinois. The second and third charts show that all groups have declined with the exception of the Pentecostals. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 22 Complete Presentation has Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families 1990 & 2000 Increase or Decrease in the Percentage of the Population in a Christian Church on any Given Weekend by Denominational Family 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -1.9% -2.1% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -8.0% -9.5% -10.0% -10.5% -12.0% -13.2% -13.2% -14.0% -16.0% Baptist Methodist Lutheran Reformed Pentecostal Christian Catholic Other The Next Chart show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Maryland. The first chart illustrates the relative sizes of the churches in Maryland by attendance. The second chart shows the change in the percentage of the population attending the most influential denominations over the last decade. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 26 1990 & 2000 Illinois Average Church Attendance 1,200 1,063 971 1,000 794 794 800 1990 Illinois 2000 Illinois 600 1990 US Average 2000 US Average 400 241 238 200 140 145 124 131 172 175 113 111 112 115 Evangelical Mainline Catholic © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Total 27 Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Population per Church for State and Nation The Next 3 Maps show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Illinois in 2000. Evangelical and Mainline churches are stronger in the southern half of the state, while Catholics are stronger in the northern half of the state. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 29 Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage for each County Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage for each County 15.4% 5.0% 6.4% Jo Daviess Stephenson Winnebago 4.2% 5.2% Carroll Ogle 7.1% 9.0% Whiteside Lee 4.8% Boone 8.3% 8.9% McHenry Lake 10.1% 5.7% Cook 5.5% Kendall Rock Island 9.6% 11.8% Henry Bureau 10.5% 3.5% 3.9% Mercer 4.4% 2.2% 3.5% Henderson Warren 12.0% Will 17.0% 8.2% La Salle Grundy 6.6% Putnam 10.0% Stark Kankakee Marshall 7.0% Knox 3.1% 3.5% McDonough Fulton 3.9% 9.4% Du Page 9.2% Hancock 11.9% Kane De Kalb 8.3% 6.5% Peoria Woodford Livingston 4.0% 3.4% Iroquois Ford 4.4% 6.1% Tazewell McLean 3.1% Mason 1.7% 10.9% Schuyler 12.9% 5.6% Adams Brown 3.9% 7.8% 5.3% Logan 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship in Catholic Churches on an Given Weekend Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest 1.4% 5.3% 5.3% Macon Sangamon Morgan Scott Pike Coles 1.8% Shelby 6.4% 6.7% 5.1% 3.9% Montgomery Cumberland Clark Greene Calhoun Macoupin 9.4% 17.3% Jersey 1.8% 3.9% 7.7% Effingham Fayette Bond 3.8% Madison 3.1% 20.2% 7.4% Saint Clair 12.8% 3.3% Edgar 2.9% Moultrie 3.5% Clay 10.4% 1.9% Jasper Crawford 5.4% 1.9% Richland Lawrence Marion Clinton 0.5% 10.8% Washington 0.0% Wayne 2.2% 4.6% Wabash Edwards Jefferson Monroe 5.3% 6.8% 1.1% Perry Randolph 4.3% 2.0% Hamilton White Franklin 1.7% Jackson 2.8% 1.6% 6.4% Williamson Saline Gallatin 1.2% 2.8% 0.5% Union 1.2% Hardin Johnson 3.0% Pulaski Alexander © 2004 by David T. Olson Douglas 2.0% 7.7% Christian 19.2% 3.9% Vermilion 4.3% 9.1% Illinois Counties Champaign Piatt Menard Cass 4.1% 4.8% Dewitt 3.5% 0.0% 0.8% Pope Massac 0.0% to 3.8% 3.8% to 6.7% 6.7% to 21.2% The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 24 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 78 counties declined. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 33 Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Christian Church Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Illinois between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 53 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 47 counties declined. For mainline churches, 9 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 93 counties declined. For Catholics, 8 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 92 counties declined. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 35 Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County -12.6% -7.9% Jo Daviess Stephenson -9.9% -27.6% Winnebago Boone -17.7% 18.9% Carroll Ogle -0.8% -7.8% McHenry Lake 1.6% -6.7% -11.2% -3.9% Whiteside Lee Du PageCook -32.6% -12.0% Kendall Rock Island -12.0% Stark -12.0% Henderson Warren -21.9% La Salle Grundy -29.3% Kankakee Marshall -12.0% Knox -12.0% -12.0% McDonough Fulton -12.0% Hancock -12.0% Putnam -12.0% -34.9% -12.0% Will Bureau -12.0% -12.0% Mercer -7.8% -12.0% Henry -12.0% -24.1%-10.1% Kane De Kalb -12.0% -12.0% Peoria Woodford Livingston -38.3% -46.4% Iroquois Ford -12.0% -12.0% Tazewell McLean -12.0% Mason -12.0% -18.3% Schuyler 174.8% -28.2% Adams Brown -12.0% -12.0% 9.4% Logan 1990 - 2000 Increase or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in Catholic Churches on any Given Weekend Blue = Decline Rose = Increase Pike -3.4% Macon Sangamon -12.0% Moultrie 45.1% -9.3% Calhoun Macoupin -33.8% -16.1% Montgomery Cumberland Clark -46.0% -9.1% Jersey -33.6% 49.5% -18.3% Fayette Bond -12.0% -22.6% -14.9% Saint Clair -32.4% -11.5% -34.8% Jasper Crawford Effingham Madison -18.4% Edgar -13.1% Shelby -2.2% -19.2% Coles Greene Clay -20.1% -21.0% Richland Lawrence Marion Clinton -25.0% -14.4% Washington -32.9% -38.4% Wayne Wabash Edwards Jefferson Monroe -23.9% -36.1% -45.9% Perry Randolph -29.3% -30.1% Hamilton White Franklin -35.0% -38.5% Jackson Williamson Saline -56.7% Union -52.6% -28.0% -15.8% Gallatin -27.7% -9.6% © 2004 by David T. Olson Douglas -3.8% -20.1% Christian -22.8% -12.0% Vermilion -26.1% -22.2% 19.3% Morgan Scott -7.0% Champaign Piatt Menard Cass -9.6% Illinois Counties -12.0% Dewitt -12.0% Johnson 9.0% Pulaski Alexander -48.5%Pope Massac Hardin Declined Increased No data The Final Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in Illinois in the past decade. There was a net loss of 30 churches. However, 951 churches were needed to keep up with population growth from 1990 - 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 39 Increase in Number of Churches in Illinois Between 1990 & 2000 951 1000 800 600 400 200 127 -193 36 -30 0 -200 Evangelical Mainline Catholic Total Gain © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Increase Needed to Maintain 1990 Ratio of Churches to Population 40 The State of the Church in Illinois . . . In Illinois, the actual number of people attending church has declined over the past decade. Church attendance has grown for Evangelicals, but has declined for the Mainline and Catholics However, because of population growth, the percentage of the population attending church has been declining for the all three groups. This resulted in a 9.5% loss in the state-wide percentage of the population that attended church between 1990 and 2000. A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in Illinois. Nine hundred and eighty-one additional churches needed to have been started in the previous decade to compensate for the decline in percentage attendance. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 41 For More Information . . . Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church. 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm The complete Illinois Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UIL20.htm The complete Chicago Powerpoint presentation is available at The complete St. Louis Powerpoint presentation is available at A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Illinois, Chicago and St. Louis Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/IL0.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Chicago.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/StLouis.htm © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 42 Information on the Information The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline. Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled. African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible. Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches. In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located. Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study. This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 43 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches.1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and © 2004 by David T. Olson increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%. Sample - Not for Public Use 44 For More Information . . . Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering information. To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at [email protected]. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 45