Transcript Slide 1

The State of the Church
in Texas
1990-2000
Dave Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
1
This is a Sample Presentation
It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the
Christian church in Texas, and what the complete “State of
the Church in Texas” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to
encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss
together the missional challenges in Texas that the Church
faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for
immediate download at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UTX20.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
2
In 1996,
polls taken immediately after the Presidential election
revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted,
when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the
Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation
in activities that create acceptability within their social
group.
For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have
reported that around 45% of Americans attend church
every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual
attendance counts have shown that the
percentage of people attending church on any
given weekend is much lower than was previously
thought.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
3
The Intent
of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two
key questions:
“How Many People Really Attend Church in
Texas Every Week?”
“Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or
Backwards in Influence in Texas?”
As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of
factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Texas
will begin to take shape.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
4
This study
uses weekend church attendance as a more
reliable and more immediate snapshot of
Christian influence than membership. The
following map shows the percentage of
the population attending a Christian
church on any given weekend in all 50
states in 2000. Texas has an average
church attendance percentage (19.1%)
close to the national average (18.7%).
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
5
Percentage of Population Attending a Christian
Church on any Given Weekend 2000
11.8%
14.0%
NH
WA
17.5%
11.2%
13.2%
29.4%
MT
23.2%
ND
ME
VT
MN
14.5%
OR
14.4%
11.4%
24.6%
28.0%
ID
14.0%
NY
WI
SD
20.6%
WY
20.3%
CA
20.3%
15.2%
UT
IL
CO
22.7%
KS
AZ
21.7%
IN
WV
22.1%
MO
OK
NM
22.7%
NC
TN
25.0%
28.6% 16.0%
DC
DE
17.7%
MD
23.3%
SC
26.7%
MS
TX
18.0%
VA
KY
AR
19.1%
CT
NJ
17.4%
21.5%
22.0%
17.8%
16.0%
OH
23.5%
14.3%
17.2%
PA
IA
3.1%
NV
RI
20.5%
24.7%
NE
14.8%
20.1%
MI
23.8%
9.7%
MA
15.5%
26.9%
23.3%
GA
AL
29.4%
LA
15.1%
AK
15.1%
13.4%
HI
0.0% to 14.4%
14.4% to 17.5%
17.5% to 20.6%
20.6% to 23.5%
23.5% to 29.4%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
FL
6
The Next Map
shows the percentage of the population
attending a Christian church on any given
weekend in 2000 for each county in Texas.
Church attendance is highest in the northern
counties and lower in southern counties.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
7
44.1%
38.6%
Dallam
Sherman
5.5%
29.8%
Hansford
22.0%
25.4%
30.7%
Ochiltree
Lipscomb
26.7%
35.3%
33.1%
Roberts
Hemphill
Hartley
Moore Hutchinson
22.0%
35.5%
29.8%
28.7%
26.3%
Oldham
Potter
Carson
Gray
Wheeler
24.1%
15.5%
18.8%
25.1%
Randall Armstrong
Deaf Smith
31.4%
DonleyCollingsworth
27.7%
27.9%
30.2%
41.9%
24.3%
18.0%
Parmer
Castro
Swisher
Briscoe
Hall
Childress
25.6%
22.0%
27.3%
Lamb
Hale
Floyd
Motley
Cottle
27.8%
24.1%
23.5%
22.8%
23.0%
Bailey
26.2%
27.4%
31.0%
23.3%
Hardeman
25.5%
21.4%
33.4%
Wilbarger
Foard
Wichita
16.9%
23.5%
Clay
23.3%
33.3%
44.4%
31.6%
Montague
Cochran
Hockley
Lubbock
Crosby
27.6%
30.4%
25.6%
25.9%
Yoakum
Terry
Lynn
Dickens
King
25.5%
29.4%
Garza
Stonewall
Kent
27.2%
26.4%
7.5%
33.1%
35.4%
Gaines
Dawson
Borden
Scurry
Fisher
27.6%
22.0%
22.9%
19.5%
25.3%
Knox
32.7%
Baylor
Archer
23.3%
26.1%
Throckmorton
Haskell
21.8%
29.1%
16.4%
60.7%
Wise
Denton
17.5%
19.3%
21.6%
Parker
Tarrant
18.2%
Andrews
15.7%
El Paso
Loving
13.8%
Hudspeth
26.2%
21.8%
Winkler
Ector
Martin
26.2%
Howard
22.5%
32.0%
Midland Glasscock
31.1%
23.1%
Culberson
20.9%
25.7%
22.1%
Crane
Upton
Reagan
Ward
17.4%
Mitchell
Sterling
Nolan
19.4%
38.4%
Taylor Callahan
23.0%
24.4%Comanche
20.8%
Brown
25.9%
Coleman
Mills
19.7%
26.7%
23.2%
22.9%
15.6%
Jeff Davis
26.8%
Pecos
Crockett
36.0%
13.8%
Presidio
Brewster
31.1%
20.1%
Sutton
Kimble
28.7%
11.7%
Edwards
Real
Val Verde
Texas Counties
2000 Percentage of Population
at Worship in All Christian Churches
on any Given Weekend
Blue = Lowest
Rose = Middle
Beige = Highest
Kerr
13.5%
34.7%
13.9%
Uvalde
Medina
31.4%
17.4%
Zavala
Frio
La Salle
Webb
San Jacinto
15.7%
19.7%
19.9%
Hardin
Orange
28.7%
16.3%
Harris
16.3%
Fort Bend
16.7%
Wharton
21.8%
Liberty
19.0%
Waller
Colorado
22.5%
16.0%
Newton
Jefferson
Chambers
15.9%
Galveston
Brazoria
19.2%
Jackson
Victoria
16.2%
Matagorda
McMullen
Live Oak Bee
Refugio
Aransas
San Patricio
16.3%
14.6%
16.2%
Nueces
Duval Jim Wells11.2%
Kleberg
20.4%
25.0%
21.3%
23.2%
Tyler
Jasper
9.3% Polk
21.1%
20.0%
18.5%
Trinity
24.1%
Walker
14.9%
Austin
18.1%
Lavaca
De Witt
Karnes
15.4%
16.0%
19.5%
26.7% 25.3%
Nacogdoches
25.2%
San AugustineSabine
Angelina
13.3% 13.3%Goliad
17.9%
Calhoun
11.7%
14.6%
15.5%
21.8%
Wilson
16.4%
15.2%
76.2%
28.2%
Gonzales
16.0%
Atascosa
Dimmit
16.8%
Guadalupe
Bexar
24.9%
Washington
26.0%
Shelby
21.2%
18.3%
Houston
Montgomery
Lee
Fayette
Comal 11.2% Caldwell
18.6%
19.4%
16.2%
22.9%
Madison10.9%
19.2%
16.6%
Brazos
Grimes
22.2% Burleson
31.4%
24.7%
17.5%Bastrop
20.0% Hays
24.3%
22.2%
23.0%
Panola
23.4%
Anderson Cherokee
Leon
Milam
Williamson
Travis
Blanco 14.1%
Kendall
Kinney
Maverick
15.3%
14.3%
18.5%
20.7%
20.4%
Harrison
21.6%
Rusk
20.5%
24.2% Freestone
25.7% Robertson
17.6%
27.2%
Gillespie
Bandera
24.1%
Burnet
Llano
24.4%
25.4%
16.8%
16.5%
Mason
16.4%
Terrell
15.5%
Menard
Bell
Gregg
Smith
Henderson
Navarro
Falls
18.2%
20.1%
Schleicher
19.9%
Ellis18.9%
McLennan
Limestone
22.8%
Coryell
26.6%
16.4%
22.5%
San Saba Lampasas
McCulloch
Reeves
16.3%
26.8%
Delta
17.9%
Kaufman Van Zandt
Bosque
16.7%
17.3%
Concho
24.7%
Red River
19.5%
Johnson
Hamilton
25.0%
Lamar
16.3%
Fannin
18.8%
Hill
24.6%
23.8%
22.4%
Bowie
18.9%26.9%
32.2%
26.9%
28.5%
Franklin
Titus
Collin
Hopkins
Morris Cass
26.9% Hunt 16.7%
Camp
17.9%
24.2%
21.4%
18.4%
Rockwall
Rains
19.1%
Marion
19.7%
18.8%
Wood
Dallas
Upshur
30.1%
19.1%
Hood
17.2%
22.8% Erath Somervell
22.0%
Runnels
22.5%
19.4%
Tom Green
Irion
20.9%
Eastland
29.4%
Coke
Grayson
Jack
Jones Shackelford Stephens Palo Pinto
26.2%
21.9%
Cooke
21.1%
Young
19.4%
23.1%
Jim Hogg
13.4%
12.9%
Brooks
Zapata
Kenedy
7.0%
12.8%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Starr
Hidalgo
0.0% to 19.1%
19.1% to 24.7%
24.7% to 77.2%
No data
17.3%
Willacy
15.8%
Cameron
8
The Next 2 Maps
show the population numbers for each county
in Texas. The first map shows the population
of each county. The second map shows the
growth or decline in population for each
county from 1990 - 2000. Sixty-eight counties
have declined in population over the last
decade.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
9
6,222
3,186
Dallam
Hansford
20,121
23,857
5,537
Hartley
2,185
113,546
Potter
104,312
5,327
3,828
5,284
Wheeler
3,206
DonleyCollingsworth
8,285
8,378
1,790
3,782
Swisher
Briscoe
Hall
7,688
Childress
4,724
14,676
6,594
17,762
36,602
7,771
Bailey
Lamb
Hale
Floyd
Motley
Cottle
Wichita
11,006
3,730
22,716
242,628
7,072
2,762
356
4,253
4,093
8,854
Clay
Cochran
Hockley
Lubbock
Crosby
King
Knox
Baylor
Archer
12,761
6,550
4,872
Terry
Lynn
Garza
67
7,173
Winkler
121,123
Ector
10,909
3,996
Ward
Crane
13,137
Reeves
2,207
16,809
Jeff Davis
Pecos
7,304
8,866
Presidio
Brewster
1,622
Dickens
131,664
Wilbarger
Foard
19,117
36,363
110,595
Montague
Cooke
Grayson
31,242
Fannin
14,709
14,314
Lamar
432,976
Red River
89,306
Bowie
28,118
Delta 9,458
31,960
13,048 30,438
76,596
11,549
Titus
HopkinsFranklin
Collin
Morris Cass
Kent
43,080 Hunt 9,139
Camp
213,517
36,752
88,495 1,446,219 2,218,899
27,026
14,985
729
16,361
4,344
20,785
3,302
9,674
35,291
Rockwall
Rains
48,140
Marion
71,313
62,110
Parker
Wood
Dallas
Tarrant
Dawson
Borden
Scurry
Fisher
Jones Shackelford Stephens Palo Pinto
Upshur
111,379
41,100
Kaufman Van Zandt 174,706
Harrison
126,811
Gregg
851
33,627
9,698
15,802
126,555
12,905
679,622
18,297
33,001 Hood
Smith
6,809
22,756
73,277
47,372
Johnson
Martin
Howard
Mitchell
Nolan
Taylor Callahan
Eastland
Ellis45,124
32,321
Henderson
14,026 Erath Somervell
Rusk Panola
17,204
3,864
116,009
1,406
Navarro
11,495
1,393
55,109
46,659
25,224
Hill
37,674Comanche
9,235
17,867
8,229
Bosque
Coke
Midland Glasscock
Runnels
Anderson Cherokee
Sterling
Shelby
Brown
37,957
59,203
Coleman
22,051 Freestone
Hamilton
5,151
8,946 10,469
104,010
74,978
McLennan Limestone
Nacogdoches
3,404
3,326
3,966
15,335
1,771
80,130
Mills
23,185
18,576
5,866
3,738
San AugustineSabine
6,186
Tom Green
Coryell
Reagan
Upton
Concho
Leon
13,779
Irion
Angelina
Houston
Falls
237,974
McCulloch
16,000
San Saba Lampasas
8,205
Trinity
2,935
2,360
Bell
41,133
Robertson
20,871
61,758
24,238
Madison
34,147
35,604
15,072
12,940
17,044
Schleicher
Menard
4,099
249,967
152,415
22,246Polk
Tyler
Walker
Milam
23,552
Burnet
16,470
Jasper Newton
Mason
Llano
Crockett
4,077
4,468
Williamson
Brazos
San Jacinto
Grimes
293,768
48,073
812,280
20,814
15,657 Burleson
Sutton
Kimble
8,418
30,373
1,081
70,154
Montgomery
Hardin
84,966
Travis 57,733 Lee
Gillespie
97,589
Blanco
Washington 32,663
43,653
Terrell
Liberty
2,162
Orange
23,743
21,804
252,051
Bastrop
32,194
23,590
3,047
3,400,578
Kerr
78,021 Hays
Waller
44,856
26,031
Edwards
17,645
Kendall
Fayette
Jefferson
Austin
Real
Harris
Comal 89,023 Caldwell
20,390
Val Verde
Chambers
354,452
Bandera
1,392,931 Guadalupe 18,628
250,158
Colorado
39,304
3,379
25,926
19,210
41,188 Fort Bend
Bexar
Gonzales
241,767
Galveston
Medina
32,408
Kinney
Uvalde
Lavaca
18,561
Wharton
Brazoria
15,446
38,628 Wilson
14,391
De Witt
11,600
16,252
10,941
84,088
Karnes
Atascosa
Jackson
Frio
Zavala
6,928
4,746
Matagorda
Victoria
20,647
Maverick
10,248
12,309 32,359Goliad
47,297
48,499
Calhoun
7,828
22,497
Dimmit
Live Oak Bee
La Salle McMullen
Refugio
Aransas
67,138
7,322
Yoakum
Loving
1,904
Hardeman
1,426
13,004
2,975
Gray
Castro
Andrews
Culberson
22,744
10,016
14,467
Hudspeth
3,351
Hemphill
Parmer
Gaines
3,344
887
6,516
2,148
3,057
Lipscomb
Roberts
Carson
Randall Armstrong
Deaf Smith
El Paso
9,006
Ochiltree
Moore Hutchinson
Oldham
111,360
5,369
Sherman
Texas Counties
2000 Population
859
1,693
Stonewall
6,093
1,850
Throckmorton
Haskell
193,117
17,943
Young
8,763
48,793
20,013
Jack
Wise
Denton
491,675
San
Patricio
313,645
13,120
39,326
Nueces
Duval Jim Wells31,549
Webb
Kleberg
5,281
12,182
7,976
Jim Hogg Brooks
Zapata
414
Kenedy
53,597
569,463
Starr
20,082
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Hidalgo
Willacy
335,227
Cameron
0 to 20,000
20,000 to 100,000
100,000 to 3,400,579
10
Complete Presentation has
Map of 2000 Population
Growth for Each County
The Next 2 Slides
show the ethnicity of Texas in 1990 and 2000.
The third slide shows the growth or decline in
the percentage of the population for each
ethnic group.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
12
1990 Ethnicity of Texas
Non-Hispanic White
Asian
2%
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
Asian
Hispanic
25%
Non-Hispanic White
61%
Non-Hispanic Black
12%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
13
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 2000 Ethnicity
Texas 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's
Percentage of the Population
62.8%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
26.5%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
-0.8%
0.0%
-10.0%
-13.7%
-20.0%
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Asian
15
The Next Graph
shows the attendance numbers for the churches in
Texas in 1990 and 2000. All groups have grown
numerically over the last decade. Unfortunately, as
population changes, a more reliable standard for
evaluating increasing or declining influence is the
percentage of the population attending church on
any given weekend, shown in the second graph. This
graph reflects a decrease in the percentage of the
population attending each group.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
16
Texas Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000
3,976,092
4,000,000
3,493,864
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,273,310
2,500,000
2,025,348
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,120,063
924,573
535,350
574,614
1990 Mainline
2000 Mainline
1,000,000
500,000
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
2000 Total
1990 Total
2000 Catholic
1990 Catholic
2000 Evangelical
1990 Evangelical
-
17
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship
Percentage by Category
The Next Graph
is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the
population at churches in each category in
2000. The “Absent” category indicates the
percentage of the population that is not
worshipping at a Christian church on any
given weekend. The second graph shows the
percentage gain or decline for each category
in Texas in 1990 and 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
19
Texas 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance
9.8%
2.6%
5.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Absent
82.6%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
20
Texas - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population 19902000
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-1.3%
-7.3%
-8.6%
-12.6%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
21
The 3 Next Charts
show the relative strength of the 8 major
denominational groups in Texas. The first
chart illustrates the influence of the Catholic
and Baptist churches. The second and third
charts show the significant decline of all
denominations in Texas in percentage of the
population attending church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
22
Complete Presentation has
Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by
Denominational Families
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Attendance by Denominational
Families
Texas 1990-2000 Increase or Decline in the Percentage of the Population
Attending a Christian Church by "Denominational Family"
0.0%
-0.7%
-1.3%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
Reformed
Pentecostal
Christian
Catholic
Other
-6.9%
-8.0%
-8.6%
-10.0%
-12.0%
-13.4%
-14.0%
-14.2%
-15.6%
-16.0%
-17.5%
-18.0%
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
Reformed
Pentecostal
Christian
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Other
25
The Next Chart
shows the 1990 & 2000 average church
attendance by group for both this state and
the nation. The second chart shows the 1990
& 2000 population per church for this state
and the nation. Among states in 2000,
Arkansas has the lowest population per
church with 411 people per church, Utah is
the highest at 4,586 people per church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
26
1990 & 2000 Texas Average Church Attendance
866
900
794 794
800
717
700
600
500
1990 Texas
2000 Texas
1990 US Average
400
2000 US Average
300
200
174
140 149
124 131
127
193
172 175
142
112 115
100
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
27
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Population per Church
for State and Nation
The Next 3 Maps
show the attendance percentages for the
Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Texas in 2000. Evangelicals
are strongest in the north and Catholics in the
south.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
29
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
for each County
10.0%
17.5%
6.5%
3.6%
Dallam
Sherman
Hansford
Ochiltree
Lipscomb
5.5%
4.0%
Roberts
Hemphill
0.0%
Hartley
Moore Hutchinson
5.1%
4.2%
5.1%
11.3%
8.6%
4.1%
Oldham
Potter
Carson
Gray
Wheeler
0.5%
0.0%
1.8%
0.7%
Randall Armstrong
Deaf Smith
0.9%
DonleyCollingsworth
9.9%
15.0%
6.4%
8.6%
5.2%
2.4%
Parmer
Castro
Swisher
Briscoe
Hall
Childress
3.5%
1.7%
Hardeman
7.9%
7.6%
8.5%
5.0%
1.8%
Bailey
Lamb
Hale
Floyd
Motley
Cottle
5.1%
6.9%
5.5%
7.8%
3.6%
0.0%
9.4%
Cochran
Hockley
Lubbock
Crosby
Dickens
King
Knox
3.7%
1.6%
3.4%
Wilbarger
Wichita
0.7%
7.3%
8.7%
Clay
Baylor
Archer
Foard
1.9%
Montague
5.7%
7.2%
7.6%
Terry
Lynn
Garza
5.5%
8.2%
Andrews
10.2%
El Paso
Loving
9.8%
Hudspeth
12.7%
5.1%
Winkler
Ector
11.2%
2.5%
9.4%
Ward
Culberson
Crane
9.5%
Reeves
4.6%
7.0%
Jeff Davis
Pecos
11.0%
5.7%
Presidio
Brewster
2.2%
Grayson
0.9%
Fannin
1.3%
Lamar
1.4%
0.2%
Red River
0.7%
Bowie
1.4%
0.9%
49.0%
4.3%
Jack
Wise
Denton
Collin
3.3%
Delta 1.2% 2.2% 1.4%
1.1%
0.3%
2.5%
HopkinsFranklinTitus
Morris Cass
0.9%
Camp
0.7%
1.1%
1.7%
4.7%
5.0%
2.3%
6.1%
5.6%
4.2%
2.2%
2.7%
3.1%
0.7%
Rockwall
Rains
0.8%
2.2%
1.2%
Marion
Wood
Parker
Tarrant
Dallas
Dawson
Borden
Scurry
Fisher
Jones Shackelford Stephens Palo Pinto
Upshur
1.7%
2.1%
Kaufman Van Zandt
Harrison
1.9%
1.2%
Gregg
7.3%
5.9%
4.8%
4.3%
2.7%
0.6%
4.0%
1.4%
1.8%
Smith
Hood
2.9%
0.6%
1.5%
Johnson
0.5%
Ellis 2.2%
Martin
Howard
Mitchell
Nolan
Taylor Callahan
Eastland
2.3%
Henderson
1.9% Erath Somervell
Rusk Panola
2.0%
0.6%
5.6%
15.7%
Navarro
11.6%
5.8%
1.9%
0.8%
0.0%
Hill
2.5%Comanche
3.6%
0.9%
0.4%
Bosque
Coke
Midland Glasscock
Runnels
Sterling
Anderson Cherokee
Shelby
Brown
3.2%
3.6%
Coleman
1.1% Freestone
Hamilton
3.0%
1.6% 0.2%
6.1%
0.8%
McLennan
Nacogdoches
2.5%
3.3%
5.1%
Limestone
1.1%
6.4%
2.3%
Mills
0.7%
4.8%
3.5%
7.6%
San AugustineSabine
1.2%
Tom Green
Coryell
Upton
Reagan
Concho
0.5%
Leon
Irion
Angelina
Houston
Falls
3.2%
4.0%
McCulloch
San Saba Lampasas
0.7%
Trinity
5.9%
6.7%
2.4%
Bell
Robertson
1.2%
2.1%
6.6%
Madison
3.5%
1.8%
6.4%
1.1%
Schleicher
Menard
11.9%
3.7%
7.4%
0.0% Polk
Tyler
Walker
Milam
5.5%
Burnet
Jasper Newton
2.8%
Mason
Llano
17.4%
3.2%
Crockett
Williamson
Brazos
San Jacinto
Grimes
1.9%
2.5%
6.1%
6.5%
2.2% Burleson
Sutton
Kimble
2.7%
6.1%
22.5%
4.8%
Montgomery
Hardin
6.0%
Travis
4.0% Lee
Gillespie
5.9%
Blanco
Washington 3.7%
2.7%
Terrell
Liberty
6.6%
Orange
4.5%
9.4%
11.0%
Bastrop
6.2%
6.5%
5.6%
4.8%
4.1% Hays
Kerr
Waller
5.7%
6.3%
Edwards
3.3%
Kendall
Fayette
Jefferson
Austin
Real
Harris
Comal 2.9% Caldwell
7.4%
Val Verde
Chambers
4.9%
Bandera
7.7%
4.0%
4.4%
Guadalupe
Colorado
7.1%
9.8%
23.8%
15.8%
10.4% Fort Bend
Bexar
Gonzales
4.6%
Galveston
Medina
7.1%
Kinney
Uvalde
Lavaca
Wharton
9.1%
Brazoria
7.5%
7.6% Wilson
7.0%
De Witt
23.1%
11.3%
5.3%
8.6%
Karnes
Atascosa
Jackson
Zavala
Frio
7.5%
21.1%
Matagorda
Victoria
3.5%
4.1% Goliad
Maverick
72.0%
3.4%
7.8%
8.2%
4.8%
Calhoun
2.9%
Dimmit
Live Oak Bee
La Salle McMullen
Refugio
Aransas
5.9%
5.8%
Yoakum
Gaines
8.3%
Cooke
Texas Counties
2000 Percentage of Population
at Worship in All Catholic Churches
on any Given Weekend
Blue = Lowest
Rose = Middle
Beige = Highest
2.5%
Kent
3.4%
Stonewall
3.1%
0.6%
Throckmorton
Haskell
13.0%
1.4%
Young
1.2%
Hunt
San
Patricio
5.3%
11.4%
7.2%
Nueces
Duval Jim Wells 2.6%
Webb
Kleberg
17.4%
22.8%
8.4%
Jim Hogg Brooks
Zapata
5.6%
Kenedy
4.8%
9.6%
Starr
12.5%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Hidalgo
Willacy
10.0%
Cameron
0.0% to 2.6%
2.6% to 6.0%
6.0% to 73.0%
No data
32
The Next Map
shows the growth or decline in the percentage
of the population attending a Christian church
on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for
each county. 64 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 189 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
33
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Christian Church Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
The Next 3 Maps
show the growth or decline of attendance percentages
for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Texas between 1990 and 2000. For
evangelicals, 72 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 180 counties declined. For Mainline
churches, 45 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 204 counties declined. For
Catholics, 123 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 123 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
35
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
21.3%
435.2%
Dallam
Sherman
-100.0%
60.5%
44.2%
8.3%
37.9%
-49.0%
Potter
Carson
Gray
Wheeler
-39.6%
-100.0%
126.0%
-53.4%
Randall Armstrong
DonleyCollingsworth
-50.3%
-32.2%
80.9%
423.6%
2.8%
Castro
Swisher
Briscoe
Hall
Childress
-80.3%
-67.3%
Hale
Floyd
Motley
4.7%
69.7%
-17.0%
42.4%
34.9%
-14.4%
Bailey
Lamb
65.0%
Hockley
-20.0%
34.1%
Yoakum
Terry
61.0%
-60.0%
Winkler
5.3%
Ector
-53.7%
5.4%
35.2%
Hemphill
Parmer
Andrews
Culberson
Roberts
130.6%
Gaines
Hudspeth
-2.6%
-12.6%
-54.1%
14.3%
46.7%
Oldham
Cochran
El Paso
76.1%
Moore Hutchinson
-60.2%
Loving
28.6%
Ochiltree Lipscomb
Hartley
Deaf Smith
13.4%
39.8%
Hansford
Ward
Crane
-25.4%
Reeves
-56.0%
8.0%
Jeff Davis
Pecos
15.3%
-34.2%
Presidio
Brewster
Lubbock
8.5%
Crosby
107.8%
Dickens
-55.5%
23.0%
-52.0%
-72.2% Hardeman
215.4%
Wilbarger
Cottle
Foard
Wichita
6.0%
-7.9%
-10.0%
Clay
King
142.9%
Knox
-34.5%
-24.4%
Baylor
-84.9%
-35.7%
130.2%
-2.0%
-16.9%
Montague
Cooke
Grayson
Archer
75.2%
-49.7%
Lamar
-29.0%
Red River
78.9%
Bowie
31.4%
222.9%
27.4%
Fannin
31.5%
201.5%
-0.6%
0.0%
22.3%
Delta -29.0%44.4%40.4%
9.6%
109.6%
Titus
HopkinsFranklin
Morris Cass
Camp
53.4%
47.6%
164.5%
19.8%
19.0%
-59.1%
-48.0%
32.0%
20.5%
-19.0%
1036.6%
-43.1%
72.0%
Rockwall
Rains
229.9%
Marion
53.7%
155.3%
Parker
Wood
Tarrant
Dallas
Dawson
Borden
Scurry
Fisher
Jones Shackelford Stephens Palo Pinto
Upshur
41.3%
166.4%
Harrison
Kaufman Van Zandt 72.5%
242.7%
Gregg
-12.3%
-23.5%
10.7%
-14.0%
20.0%
-12.4%
6.4%
-6.2%
Smith
-51.5% 347.1%
76.8%
Hood
99.1%
115.9%
Johnson
Eastland
Martin
Howard
Mitchell
Nolan
Taylor Callahan
Ellis44.3%
-43.9%
Henderson
80.2% Erath Somervell
Rusk Panola
309.1%
-44.3%
10.5%
11.0%
Navarro
56.4%
4.3%
165.4%
-56.0%
-85.1%
Hill
26.0%
Comanche
21.7%
1.6%
-18.8%
Bosque
Coke
Midland Glasscock
Runnels
Sterling
Anderson Cherokee
Shelby
Brown
-35.1%
94.9%
Coleman
-28.7% Freestone
Hamilton
67.4%
436.0% -48.4%
2.1%
-61.3%
-69.6%
-37.8%
Nacogdoches
McLennan
15.9%
31.5%
Limestone
-2.9%
23.2%
Mills -74.1%
-5.4%
-23.7%
8.9%
-70.8%
San AugustineSabine
Tom Green
Coryell
Upton
Reagan
Concho
Leon
-3.0%
Irion
Angelina
Houston
Falls
1.2%
McCulloch San Saba Lampasas
-48.6%
2.5%
Trinity
-20.7%
34.8%
Bell
-23.5%
Robertson
-27.3%
8.6%
Madison-68.7%
-10.1%
-1.6%
35.3%
-80.3%
Schleicher
Menard
8.7%
-39.5%
-1.8%
Polk
Tyler
Walker
Milam
29.9%
-53.3%
Burnet
Jasper Newton
Mason
Llano
Crockett
30.3%
16.9%
Williamson
Brazos
San Jacinto
Grimes
105.4%
-2.4%
-21.7%
21.1%
-5.5% Burleson
Sutton
Kimble
-56.7%
-1.1%
70.1%
-5.9%
Montgomery
Hardin
-15.6%
Travis -21.7% Lee
Gillespie
Blanco 10.9%
Washington -17.1%
28.0%
Terrell
Liberty
-58.1%
Orange
-27.3%
-21.8%
Bastrop -32.2%
-26.1%
-8.9%
428.8%
9.2%
Hays
-24.7%
Kerr
Waller
39.0%
Edwards
4.8%
-35.5%
Kendall
Fayette
Jefferson
Caldwell
Austin
Real
Harris
Comal -40.8%
-55.4%
Val Verde
60.2%
Chambers
Bandera
-19.4% Guadalupe -34.4%
50.8%
Colorado
-40.4%
-20.5%
61.4%
6.4%
-6.4% Fort Bend
36.8%
Bexar
Gonzales
Galveston
Medina
-26.3%
Kinney
Uvalde
Lavaca
4.4%
Wharton
Brazoria
-49.6%
-18.9% Wilson
8.2%
De
Witt
-30.9%
-20.5%
-27.9%
-30.2%
Karnes
Atascosa
Jackson
Zavala
Frio
-18.3%
-45.9%
Matagorda
Victoria
-75.0%
Maverick
138.8%
-51.2% -31.5%Goliad
38.0%
0.4%
-45.3%
Calhoun
-12.2%
Dimmit
Live Oak Bee
La Salle McMullen
Refugio
Aransas
-29.8%
Lynn
Garza
Kent
Stonewall
Throckmorton
Haskell
Jack
Young
Wise
Texas Counties
1990 - 2000 Growth or
Decline in Percentage
of the Total Population
at Worship in Catholic
Churches on a
Given Weekend
Blue = Decline © 2004 by David T. Olson
Rose = Growth Sample - Not for Public Use
-0.8%
Collin
-8.0% Hunt
San
Patricio
-28.4%
6.9%
-34.0%
Nueces
Duval Jim Wells-69.9%
Webb
Kleberg
27.5%
43.5%
Denton
Jim Hogg
-12.5%
-66.9%
Brooks
Zapata
Kenedy
-53.5%
-8.0%
Starr
Hidalgo
Decline
Growth
No data
20.0%
Willacy
-4.2%
Cameron
38
The Final Chart
shows the net gain in the number of churches
in Texas in the past decade. There was a net
gain of 547 churches. However, 4277
churches were needed to keep up with
population growth in Texas from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
39
Increase in Number of Churches in Texas Between 1990 & 2000
4277
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
703
547
1000
500
-159
3
0
-500
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Total Gain
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Increase Needed to
Maintain 1990 Ratio
of Churches to
Population
40
The State of the Church in
Texas . . .


Church attendance has grown numerically in Texas.
Unfortunately, the population has grown at a much
faster rate and the percentage of the population
attending church has decreased in all categories. This
has resulted in a 7.3% loss in the state-wide
percentage of the population that attended church
between 1990 and 2000.
A major factor in the overall decline is the slow gain in
the number of churches in Texas. Although
Evangelicals added over 700 hundred new churches in
Texas in the last decade, it is nowhere near the number
needed to allow for church growth to keep up with
population growth. 3730 additional churches needed to
have been started in the previous decade to
compensate for the decline in percentage attendance.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
41
For More Information . . .



Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on
the American Church.
12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm
The complete Texas Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UTX20.htm

The Complete Austin Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Austin.htm

The Complete Dallas / Fort Worth Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/DallasFtWorth.htm

The Complete Houston Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Houston.htm

The Complete San Antonio Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/SanAntonio.htm

A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Texas, Austin, Dallas/FtWorth, Houston & San Antonio
Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/TX0.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
42
Information on the
Information







The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend
can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who
showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest
that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The
Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been
included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches.
This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the
average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on
the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as
accurate an estimate as possible.
Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches
than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the
1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along
with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making
numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from
1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar
dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size
nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular
attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a
simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of
Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other
religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
43
This Presentation
is based on a nationwide study of American church
attendance, as reported by churches and denominations.
The database currently has average worship attendances
for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual
churches.
It also uses supplementary information (actual membership
numbers correlated with accurate membership to
attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other
denominational and independent churches. All told,
accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox
Christian churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and
perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and
increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
44
For More Information . . .


Presentations such as this are available for the largest
100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the
nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to
show what is happening in the American church.
Presentations are available either by direct download,
CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org
for ordering information.
To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at
[email protected].
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
45