Transcript Slide 1

The State of the Church
in Iowa
1990-2000
Dave Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
1
This is a Sample Presentation
It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the
Christian church in Iowa, and what the complete “State of the
Church in Iowa” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to
encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss
together the missional challenges in Iowa that the Church
faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for
immediate download at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UIA20.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
2
In 1996,
polls taken immediately after the Presidential election
revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted,
when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the
Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation
in activities that create acceptability within their social
group.
For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have
reported that around 45% of Americans attend church
every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual
attendance counts have shown that the
percentage of people attending church on any
given weekend is much lower than was previously
thought.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
3
The Intent
of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two
key questions:
“How Many People Really Attend Church in
Iowa Every Week?”
“Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or
Backwards in Influence in Iowa?”
As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of
factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Iowa
will begin to take shape.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
4
This study
uses weekend church attendance as a more
reliable and more immediate snapshot of
Christian influence than membership. The
following map shows the percentage of the
population attending a Christian church on any
given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Iowa has
an attendance percentage (24.7%) that is much
higher than the average for the nation (18.7%).
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
5
Percentage of Population Attending a Christian
Church on any Given Weekend 2000
11.8%
14.0%
NH
WA
17.5%
11.2%
13.2%
29.4%
MT
23.2%
ND
ME
VT
MN
14.5%
OR
14.4%
11.4%
24.6%
28.0%
ID
14.0%
NY
WI
SD
20.6%
WY
20.3%
CA
20.3%
15.2%
UT
IL
CO
22.7%
KS
AZ
21.7%
IN
WV
22.1%
MO
OK
NM
22.7%
NC
TN
25.0%
28.6% 16.0%
DC
DE
17.7%
MD
23.3%
SC
26.7%
MS
TX
18.0%
VA
KY
AR
19.1%
CT
NJ
17.4%
21.5%
22.0%
17.8%
16.0%
OH
23.5%
14.3%
17.2%
PA
IA
3.1%
NV
RI
20.5%
24.7%
NE
14.8%
20.1%
MI
23.8%
9.7%
MA
15.5%
26.9%
23.3%
GA
AL
29.4%
LA
15.1%
AK
15.1%
13.4%
HI
0.0% to 14.4%
14.4% to 17.5%
17.5% to 20.6%
20.6% to 23.5%
23.5% to 29.4%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
FL
6
The Next Map
shows the percentage of the population
attending a Christian church on any given
weekend in 2000 for each county in Iowa.
Church attendance is much higher in the
north than the south.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
7
Iowa - Percentage of Population Attending Church on a Given Weekend by County - 2000
45.4%
Lyon
38.4%
31.8%
25.3%
34.8%
24.3%
35.2%
43.4%
Osceola
Dickinson
Emmet
Winnebago
Worth
Mitchell
Howard
30.6%
31.4%
Allamakee
Winneshiek
34.5%
Kossuth
37.9%
O'Brien
52.6%
Sioux
29.0%
31.3%
Plymouth
Cherokee
25.3%
Woodbury
24.8%
Clay
23.2%
Buena Vista
27.2%
Ida
24.7%
33.4%
Hancock
38.6%
Humboldt
29.9%
Pocahontas
28.1%
Wright
Calhoun
35.9%
Carroll
25.8%
Greene
24.1%
Cerro Gordo
23.4%
Floyd
29.1%
Chickasaw
28.8%
Fayette
29.9%
25.3%
Webster
32.8%
28.4%
Sac
27.4%
Crawford
Monona
36.4%
Palo Alto
27.7%
Franklin
29.1%
30.4%
Hamilton
Hardin
34.7%
29.1%
Clayton
Bremer
Butler
30.5%
Grundy
21.4%
24.1%
23.5%
Boone
Story
Marshall
26.2%
Black Hawk
16.0%
Tama
27.7%
Buchanan
34.2%
Dubuque
24.8%
Delaware
24.2%
23.8%
Benton
Linn
23.2%
Jones
24.2%
Jackson
20.1%
Clinton
24.1%
Harrison
37.1%
Shelby
28.9%
Audubon
22.3%
Guthrie
15.6%
Dallas
22.0%
Jasper
21.1%
Polk
24.0%
Poweshiek
18.1%
Cedar
24.3%
Iowa
15.3%
Johnson
22.1%
Muscatine
19.0%
Pottawattamie
14.6%
Mills
27.7%
Fremont
38.7%
Cass
19.0%
Montgomery
21.1%
Page
17.7%
Madison
20.0%
Adair
22.1%
Adams
28.8%
Taylor
23.5%
Union
25.9%
Ringgold
31.2%
Marion
30.7%
Warren
24.1%
Mahaska
17.8%
17.8%
20.6%
Clarke
Lucas
Monroe
20.9%
Decatur
24.7%
Wayne
21.5%
Appanoose
21.2%
Keokuk
26.1%
Washington
18.7%
Wapello
14.3%
Jefferson
16.9%
20.6%
Van Buren
Davis
21.7%
Scott
15.1%
Louisa
21.2%
26.3%
Des Moines
Henry
23.3%
Lee
0.0% to 23.4%
23.4% to 28.8%
28.8% to 53.6%
The Next 2 Maps
show the population numbers for each county
in Iowa. The first map shows the population
of each county. The second map shows the
growth or decline in population for each
county from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
9
Iowa Counties - 2000 Population
7,003
Osceola
11,763
Lyon
16,424
Dickinson
11,723
Winnebago
11,027
Emmet
7,909
Worth
10,874
Mitchell
9,932
Howard
16,900
Floyd
13,095
Chickasaw
21,310
Winneshiek
17,163
Kossuth
15,102
O'Brien
31,589
Sioux
13,035
Cherokee
24,849
Plymouth
103,877
Woodbury
20,411
Buena Vista
7,837
Ida
10,020
Monona
10,147
Palo Alto
17,372
Clay
10,381
Humboldt
8,662
Pocahontas
21,421
Carroll
10,366
Greene
46,447
Cerro Gordo
14,334
Wright
40,235
Webster
11,115
Calhoun
11,529
Sac
16,942
Crawford
12,100
Hancock
10,704
Franklin
16,438
Hamilton
26,224
Boone
18,812
Hardin
79,981
Story
12,369
Grundy
128,012
Black Hawk
18,103
Tama
39,311
Marshall
22,008
Fayette
23,325
Bremer
15,305
Butler
14,675
Allamakee
18,678
Clayton
21,093
Buchanan
25,308
Benton
89,143
Dubuque
18,404
Delaware
191,701
Linn
20,221
Jones
20,296
Jackson
50,149
Clinton
15,666
Harrison
13,173
Shelby
6,830
Audubon
11,353
Guthrie
40,750
Dallas
37,213
Jasper
374,601
Polk
18,815
Poweshiek
18,187
Cedar
15,671
Iowa
111,006
Johnson
41,722
Muscatine
87,704
Pottawattamie
14,547
Mills
8,010
Fremont
14,684
Cass
11,771
Montgomery
16,976
Page
14,019
Madison
8,243
Adair
32,052
Marion
40,671
Warren
22,335
Mahaska
4,482
Adams
12,309
Union
9,133
Clarke
9,422
Lucas
8,016
Monroe
6,958
Taylor
5,469
Ringgold
8,689
Decatur
6,730
Wayne
13,721
Appanoose
11,400
Keokuk
20,670
Washington
36,051
Wapello
16,181
Jefferson
8,541
Davis
7,809
Van Buren
158,668
Scott
12,183
Louisa
42,351
20,336
Des Moines
Henry
38,052
Lee
0 to 20,000
20,000 to 50,000
50,000 to 374,602
Complete Presentation has
Map of 2000 Population
Growth for Each County
The Next 2 Slides
show the ethnicity of Iowa in 1990 and 2000.
The third slide shows the growth or decline in
the percentage of the population for each
ethnic group.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
12
1990 Ethnicity of Iowa
Asian
1%
Hispanic
1%
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
Non-Hispanic Black
2%
Asian
Non-Hispanic White
© 2004 by96%
David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
13
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 2000 Ethnicity
Iowa 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's
Percentage of the Population
155.4%
160.0%
140.0%
120.0%
100.0%
69.3%
80.0%
60.0%
42.8%
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
-3.6%
-20.0%
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Asian
15
The Next Graph
shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Iowa
in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals have grown in
attendance, while Catholics and the mainline have
declined. Unfortunately, as overall worship
attendance has slowly increased, the population has
grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating
increasing or declining influence is the percentage of
the population attending church on any given
weekend, shown in the second graph.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
16
Iowa Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000
800,000
739,690
723,233
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
274,831
300,000
213,970
253,086
231,322
249,891
237,787
200,000
100,000
© 2004 by David T. Olson
2000 Total
1990 Total
2000 Catholic
1990 Catholic
2000 Mainline
1990 Mainline
2000 Evangelical
1990 Evangelical
-
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship
Percentage by Category
The Next Graph
is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the
population at churches in each category in
2000. The “Absent” category indicates the
percentage of the population that is not
worshipping at a Christian church on any
given weekend. The second graph shows the
percentage gain or decline for each category
in Iowa in 1990 and 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
19
Iowa 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance
7.9%
8.6%
8.1%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Absent
75.3%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Iowa - Change in Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000
4.0%
2.6%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-7.2%
-8.0%
-9.7%
-10.0%
-12.0%
-12.6%
-14.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Total
The 3 Next Charts
show the relative strength of the 8 major
denominational groups in Iowa. The second
and third charts show that all groups have
declined with the exception of the
Pentecostals.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
22
Complete Presentation has
Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by
Denominational Families
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Attendance by Denominational
Families
1990 & 2000 Increase or Decline in Percentage of the Population
in a Christian Church on any Given Weekend by Denominational Family
20.0%
17.3%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-0.7%
-1.0%
-4.6%
-8.5%
-10.0%
-9.2%
-9.7%
-14.1%
-15.0%
-20.0%
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
Reformed
Pentecostal
Christian
Catholic
Other
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
Reformed
Pentecostal
Christian
Catholic
Other
The Next Chart
shows the 1990 & 2000 average church
attendance by group for both this state and
the nation. The second chart shows the 1990
& 2000 population per church for this state
and the nation. Among states in 2000,
Arkansas has the lowest population per
church with 411 people per church, Utah is
the highest at 4,586 people per church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
26
1990 & 2000 Average Church Attendance
900
794 794
800
700
600
468
500
1990 Iowa
443
2000 Iowa
1990 US Average
400
2000 US Average
300
200
131
117 124 124
153 152
172 175
113 107 112 115
100
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
27
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Population per Church
for State and Nation
The Next 3 Maps
show the attendance percentages for the
Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Iowa in 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
29
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
for each County
Iowa - Percentage of Population Attending a Catholic Church on a Given Weekend by County - 2000
6.8%
Osceola
5.8%
Lyon
11.3%
Dickinson
4.1%
Winnebago
6.4%
Emmet
3.5%
Worth
15.7%
Mitchell
27.9%
Howard
9.7%
Floyd
11.8%
Chickasaw
15.4%
Kossuth
5.1%
O'Brien
3.5%
Sioux
15.9%
Plymouth
16.2%
Palo Alto
6.1%
Clay
9.3%
Hancock
9.5%
Cherokee
5.5%
Buena Vista
14.4%
Pocahontas
6.2%
Ida
10.1%
Sac
7.4%
Calhoun
9.3%
Woodbury
4.6%
Monona
24.5%
Carroll
8.0%
Crawford
5.1%
Wright
Humboldt
8.0%
Webster
7.5%
Greene
7.8%
Cerro Gordo
5.1%
Franklin
4.3%
Hamilton
5.4%
Boone
4.4%
Grundy
6.0%
Story
7.9%
Black Hawk
5.8%
Tama
6.2%
Marshall
16.1%
Allamakee
10.2%
Fayette
7.7%
Bremer
2.6%
Butler
2.3%
Hardin
14.1%
Winneshiek
15.5%
Clayton
14.5%
Buchanan
9.9%
Benton
28.6%
Dubuque
14.5%
Delaware
8.8%
Linn
15.9%
Jackson
8.8%
Jones
6.0%
Clinton
7.8%
Harrison
22.5%
Shelby
6.2%
Audubon
6.0%
Guthrie
6.3%
Dallas
3.6%
Jasper
5.3%
Polk
5.7%
Poweshiek
5.3%
Cedar
6.9%
Iowa
7.4%
Johnson
6.0%
Muscatine
5.5%
Pottawattamie
3.1%
Mills
4.9%
Fremont
7.1%
Cass
2.2%
Montgomery
2.6%
Page
2.5%
Madison
4.7%
Adair
5.0%
Adams
2.1%
Taylor
5.1%
Union
1.1%
Ringgold
2.9%
Marion
17.3%
Warren
2.7%
Mahaska
2.5%
Clarke
1.3%
Lucas
11.7%
Monroe
1.7%
Decatur
1.2%
Wayne
5.3%
Appanoose
9.6%
Keokuk
6.8%
Washington
4.2%
Wapello
3.5%
Jefferson
0.4%
Davis
1.7%
Van Buren
10.0%
Scott
3.6%
Louisa
6.0%
3.2%
Des Moines
Henry
9.4%
Lee
0.0% to 5.1%
5.1% to 8.0%
8.0% to 29.6%
No data
The Next Map
shows the growth or decline in the percentage
of the population attending a Christian church
on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for
each county. 18 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 81 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
33
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Christian Church Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
The Next 3 Maps
show the growth or decline of attendance percentages
for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Iowa between 1990 and 2000. For
evangelicals, 41 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 58 counties declined. For mainline
churches, 6 counties grew in attendance percentage,
while 93 counties declined. For Catholics, 31 counties
grew in attendance percentage, while 67 counties
declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
35
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
Iowa - Growth or Decline in Percentage of Population
Catholic Churches on any Given Sunday by County - 1990-2000
-2.8%
Osceola
36.2%
Lyon
44.8%
Dickinson
21.5%
Winnebago
-8.1%
Emmet
-8.7%
Worth
26.6%
Mitchell
9.9%
Howard
-22.0%
Floyd
-21.1%
Chickasaw
-2.7%
Winneshiek
-14.7%
Kossuth
-9.9%
O'Brien
-9.1%
Sioux
-14.3%
Cherokee
-0.9%
Plymouth
-0.4%
Woodbury
-14.4%
Buena Vista
-4.6%
Ida
-26.8%
Monona
-6.4%
Palo Alto
-2.3%
Clay
-6.9%
Pocahontas
-15.2%
Carroll
-29.9%
Webster
-2.6%
Greene
-3.7%
Cerro Gordo
-16.9%
Wright
Humboldt
2.1%
Calhoun
-6.9%
Sac
-22.7%
Crawford
20.7%
Hancock
1.7%
Franklin
16.3%
Hamilton
7.0%
Boone
15.0%
Hardin
-37.4%
Story
-65.7%
Grundy
8.6%
Black Hawk
38.4%
Tama
-7.3%
Marshall
5.1%
Fayette
-15.2%
Bremer
5.1%
Butler
-17.7%
Allamakee
2.9%
Clayton
11.8%
Buchanan
-18.2%
Benton
-6.9%
Dubuque
-20.1%
Delaware
-14.1%
Linn
-26.1%
Jones
-43.4%
Jackson
19.0%
Clinton
-3.2%
Harrison
-6.3%
Shelby
-27.6%
Audubon
-36.7%
Guthrie
2.3%
Dallas
-14.2%
Jasper
-7.8%
Polk
-20.1%
Poweshiek
-0.5%
Cedar
-16.3%
Iowa
0.0%
Johnson
-8.3%
Muscatine
-3.6%
Pottawattamie
-20.7%
Mills
-18.2%
Fremont
2.7%
Cass
48.0%
Montgomery
-36.6%
Page
-5.1%
Adair
8.7%
Madison
-16.3%
Adams
-12.3%
Union
-30.4%
Taylor
12.4%
Ringgold
-35.9%
Marion
36.2%
Warren
-2.9%
Mahaska
-17.3%
Keokuk
2.1%
Washington
8.7%
Clarke
-51.1%
Lucas
-38.1%
Monroe
-11.7%
Wapello
-21.6%
Jefferson
2.1%
Decatur
102.3%
Wayne
-15.8%
Appanoose
-33.1%
Davis
-23.8%
Van Buren
34.2%
Louisa
-31.1%
-7.3%
Des Moines
Henry
-28.7%
Lee
Decline
Growth
No data
-6.5%
Scott
The Final Chart
shows the net gain in the number of churches
in Iowa in the past decade. There was a net
loss of 87 churches. However, 261 churches
were needed to keep up with population
growth from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
39
Increase in Churches in Iowa Between 1990 & 2000
261
300
250
200
150
100
44
50
0
-50
-76
-56
-87
-100
-150
-200
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Total Gain
Increase Needed to
Maintain 1990 Ratio of
Churches to Population
The State of the Church in
Iowa . . .


While the percentage of the population attending a
church has grown slightly for Evangelicals, the
percentage of the population attending church has
been declining the Catholic church and, most
dramatically, for the Mainline church. This resulted in
a 7% loss in the state-wide percentage of the
population that attended church between 1990 and
2000 and a net decline in the number of people
attending church in Iowa.
A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient
net gain in the number of churches in Iowa. Three
hundred and forty-eight additional churches needed
to have been started in the previous decade to
compensate for the decline in percentage
© 2004 by David T. Olson
attendance.
Sample - Not for Public Use
41
For More Information . . .



Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for
additional information on the American Church.
12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm
The complete Iowa Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UIA20.htm

The Complete Ders Moines Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/DesMoines.htm

A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Iowa and Des Moines Powerpoints) is available
at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/IA0.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
42
Information on the
Information







The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend
can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who
showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest
that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The
Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been
included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches.
This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the
average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on
the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as
accurate an estimate as possible.
Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches
than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the
1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along
with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making
numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from
1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar
dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size
nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular
attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a
simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of
Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other
religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
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This Presentation
is based on a nationwide study of American church
attendance, as reported by churches and denominations.
The database currently has average worship attendances
for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual
churches.
It also uses supplementary information (actual membership
numbers correlated with accurate membership to
attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other
denominational and independent churches. All told,
accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox
Christian churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and
perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and
increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
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44
For More Information . . .


Presentations such as this are available for the largest
100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the
nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to
show what is happening in the American church.
Presentations are available either by direct download,
CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org
for ordering information.
To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at
[email protected].
© 2004 by David T. Olson
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45