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Elements of the Next Economy 2009 State of the Future and Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 Jerome C. Glenn Director, The Millennium Project The Millennium Project 2009 STATE OF THE FUTURE JEROME C. GLENN, THEODORE J. GORDON and ELIZABETH FLORESCU Some Elements of the Emerging Global Economic System to improve the human condition by 2030 • With increasing global interdependence and the speed of • • • • change, even greater economic disasters may be possible than the one the world is experiencing today. Capitalism, socialism, and communism are early industrial age systems. What are some future elements of the next global economy from which the next system might emerge? 35 such elements/attractors were identified and rated as to how important they were to the he human condition Both numeric ratings and descriptions of how they could have positive and negative impacts Demographics, the Sample: 217 participants from 35 countries 27 days Top 10 Most Beneficial Element Elements over next 20 years Import Resp Agree 1 Ethics: a key element in economic exchanges 8.36 168 0.86 2 GDP definitions that include all forms of national wealth 7.96 164 0.78 3 Small tax on use of commons directed to global public goods 7.75 172 0.83 4 Collective intelligence: global commons for the knowledge economy 7.74 155 0.88 5 Education in the evolving economic system and its elements 7.64 154 0.83 6 Simultaneous knowing – time lags changed or eliminated in information dissemination with much greater transparency. 7.61 168 0.79 Value of natural resources used in production included in pricing 7.56 162 0.76 Women’s political-economic roles essentially on par with men 7.25 182 0.68 9 Increased disclosure of "tax havens" , secret accounts 7.10 153 0.68 10 Wealth, re-defined as experience and not the accumulation of money or physical things 6.83 161 0.62 7 8 Most Controversial – bimodal distribution: • Global mechanisms for automatic financial stabilization; • • • • e.g., international convention for an automated system (expert software) to make financial policy changes as economic conditions change, conducted initially in larger economic countries Single global currency Artificial life—as computers were a key element in the information economy, so too artificial life might be a key to the next economy Internationalization of labor unions Labels on financial instruments, something like nutrition labels on food. Some other interesting elements • Simultaneous knowing – time lags changed or • • • eliminated in information dissemination with much greater transparency. Non-ownership, as distinct from private ownership or collective/state ownership. A current example is open source software. Alternatives to continuously creating artificial demand and growth Self-employment via the Internet—Individuals seek markets for their abilities rather than jobs Futures Research Methodology Versions 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0 • Version 3.0 is the largest internationally peer-reviewed • • • • collection of methods to explore the future ever assembled 39 chapters totaling 1,200-1,300 pages 1994 Version1.0 had 17 Chapters, funded by UNDP/African Futures 2003 Version 2.0 had 27 Chapters, funded by the U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute 2009 Version 3.0 has 39 Chapters, funded by the Rockefeller Foundation Each chapter follows a similar outline: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Short overview of the method's history Description of the method How to do it Strengths and weaknesses Use in combination with other methods Speculation about future of the method Collective Intelligence • • • • • • • • Key element in the next economics Key result of futures research methodology Key strategy for addressing the 15 Global Challenges It is an emergent property from synergies among • data/info/knowledge • software/hardware • experts that continually learns from feedback to produce (nearly) just in time knowledge for better decisions than these elements acting alone. Some updates from the 2009 State of the Future: • There are more Internet users in China than people in the USA • March 2009 an asteroid missed the Earth by 48,000 miles, 80% closer to • • • • the earth than the moon. None knew it was coming. US-China meetings on Global Climate Change collaboration (Apollo-like goal and NASA-line Energy-Climate Change Agency) China could pass US Economy by 2030, assuming it does not break up (water, income gaps, energy, separatist Muslim region). World pop – 6.78 billion (June 2009) and growing at 1.14% per year (1.16% last year); hi, mid, low projections for 2050 - 10.5, 9.2, 8.0 billion, and than falls without longevity breakthroughs; Industrial countries fertility rates UP from 1.35 projected in 2006 to 1.64 7% annual growth in developing countries over past 5 years, to drop to 3% for 2009 – still 3 billion people living on $2 or less per day; Some more items from the 2009 State of the Future: • World recession lowers State of the Future Index for 10 years • US-China 10-year Apollo-like climate change goal with an energy R&D program to achieve it gaining interest (US/China Press Conf) • Press freedoms are continuing to decline • Half the world continues to be vulnerable to instability and violence • • • • • • • • World recession Rising prices of food and energy and fertilizer Scarcity of water and food Falling water tables, drying rivers Desertification Climate change Failing states Political, economic, and environmental migrations 15 Global Challenges–the Agenda today 1 How cancan sustainable development How sustainable development be be achieved for all? achieved for all? 2 How can have sufficient How caneveryone everyone have sufficient clean waterwithout without conflict? clean water conflict? 15 How can ethical How can ethical considerations considerations 3 How can population growth and How can population growth and become moreroutinely routinely become more resources be brought into balance? resources be brought into balance? incorporatedinto into global decisions? incorporated global decisions? 4 14 How can democracy How cangenuine genuine democracy How can and How canscientific scientific and emergefrom from authoritarian emerge authoritarian technological technological breakthroughs breakthroughs be be regimes? accelerated to improve the regimes? accelerated to improve the human condition? 5 How Howcan can policymaking policymaking be be human condition? 13 mademore more sensitive to to How can energy made sensitive How cangrowing growing energy global long-term demandsbe bemet met safely and demands safely and global long-term perspectives? efficiently? efficiently? perspectives? How can transnational 6 12 How can transnational How can How canthe the global global organized crime networks be convergence of of information organized crime networks be convergence information stopped from becoming more and communications stopped from becoming more and communications technologies work for powerful and sophisticated powerful and sophisticated technologies work for everyone? global enterprises? global enterprises? everyone? 7How 11 How thechanging changing ethical market Howcan can the How can can ethical market status women improve statusof of women improve economies be encouraged to economies be encouraged to the human condition? help reduce the gap between the human condition? help reduce the gap rich and poor? How can shared values and new 10 How between rich and poor? can shared values and new 8 thethreat threat of new Howcan can the of new and and security strategies reduce ethnic How security strategies reduce ethnic reemerging diseases and immune conflicts, terrorism, and the useuse of of reemerging diseases and immune conflicts, terrorism, and the microorganisms be reduced? weapons of mass destruction? microorganisms be reduced? weapons of mass destruction? How can the capacity to decide be 9 How can the capacity to decide be improved thenature nature of work improvedas as the of work and and institutions change? change? institutions A Few words about… The Millennium Project is Global... • Geographically • Institutionally • Disciplinarily • Research focus UN Universities Organizations Millennium Project Governments Corporations NGOs … May become a TransInstitution Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local views in: Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training. The Millennium Project 2009 STATE OF THE FUTURE JEROME C. GLENN, THEODORE J. GORDON and ELIZABETH FLORESCU For further information Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project 4421 Garrison Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016 USA +1-202-686-5179 phone/fax [email protected] WEB 1.0 www.StateoftheFuture.org WEB 2.0 www.mpcollab.org Second Life MP site under construction