Transcript MP-general presentation - The Millennium Project

Slide 1
Frontiers of Futures Research
On the Inauguration of the Graduate Diploma on
Foresight and Strategy
Simon Bolivar University
January 25, 2008
Ted Gordon
The Millennium Project
World Federation of United Nations Associations
2. The Future Is Dynamic
Twenty five years ago there was no:
 Internet, World Wide Web, cell phones
 European Union, World Trade Organization
 AIDS, genetic sequencing for drugs
 Cloning, robots on Mars
 NAFTA, globalization
 Asymmetrical warfare
 Many believed we would have nuclear WW III
3. Developments to look for in the
next twenty five years
 Acceleration of science and technology
 Nano, bio, cogno, info (NBIC)
 SIMAD
 Energy: post oil peak transition
 Understanding, enhancing mental capacity
 Longevity
 Power and shifting non-state political actors
 Universal monitoring: who’s where
 New moral issues: birth, death, sovereignty
4. S&T Acceleration
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Technological synergies
Feedback of accomplishments
New instrumentation and analysis capacities
Globalization
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What can slow it?
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Natural limits (e.g. energy)
Catastrophe (e.g. SIMAD)
Religion, culture
Fear of the unknown
5. Technological Convergence:
An atomic scale general
purpose assembly machine
could copy itself in a week;
a billion in a year (Minsky)
Atoms
Atoms
Bio
Nano
Tiny computers
Smart chips
Eyes and ears everywhere
Implantable monitors
NBIC
Cogno
Neurons
Cells
Cells
Smart machines
Tiny robots
Swarm machine
Info
Understanding mind, brain
Brain prosthesis
True AI
Improved decisionmaking
Bits
6. Feedback of Accomplishments
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Software development today takes 100 GB hard
drive for granted
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Essentially free international communications
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The computer industry is now a trillion industry;
hence more R&D funds
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Discontinuous breakthroughs that spawn new
capacities, disciplines (e.g. transistor, DNA
molecule definition, fission)
7. Globalization of S&T
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International standards
Internet
Global corporations bringing technology
with them
Transnational students
Large scale cooperative projects (space
station)
Collaboration among scientists,
policymakers, companies
R&D leadership in China, India, South Korea
Source: Millennium Project, S&T
Study 2001, and TG
8. New Instrumentation and
Analysis Capacities
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The scanning tunneling microscope
Rapid DNA sequencer
High energy collision machines
Cooperative computers: SETI
Internet; at the limit all knowledge available
High speeds transfer
Massive storage of errorless data
Nothing is forgotten
Hubble orbital telescope
Super-cooled IR orbiting observatory looks through dust
9. A Brief History of Futures Research
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Advisors throughout history
WW II, Futuribles, Air Force studies, RAND,
Hudson Institute, USSR Plans, IFF
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Consulting firms, academic centers, OTA
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The Millennium Project, foresight studies
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Current: WFS, WFSF, MP, WAF, Journals,
Books
10. Philosophical Assumptions
 The future can be shaped by policy
 There is a range of possible futures
 Policy consequences can be systematically
explored
 Exact foreknowledge is not possible, but
probabilities can be assessed
 There is a component of the future that is
unknowable
11. Purposes of Futures Research
 To help understand what could be, what
might be, and what ought to be.
 To discover threats and opportunities.
 To develop creative strategies
 To evaluate proposed actions.
 To create and share normative visions
12. Purposes of Futures Research
 The value of futures research lies less in
its forecasting accuracy, than in its use in
identifying and assessing new
possibilities
 It’s purpose is to inform decisions
13. Bad Decisions Abound
 Misinformation; sometimes decision
makers lie (Gulf of Tonkin, the U-2 incident)
 Uncertainty, risk aversion
 Faith in low probability favorable outcomes
 Failure to recognize the need for action
 Bad luck, chance
 Selfish interests, amorality, corruption
 Xenophobia, geographic determinism
14. Non Linear Systems in Chaos
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The whole may not be the sum of the parts
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History is not a safe guide to the future
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Very small differences bring big changes
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Hidden attractors; self organization
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If most important systems are chaotic, what
does that mean for forecasting?
15. What Goes Into a Decision?
 Three questions:
 What is possible?
 What is likely?
 What is desirable?
 Futures research helps with
 Identifying goals
 Assessing prospective policies
 Quantifying risks
 Futures research does not help much with
 Reducing the unknowable
 Psychological factors
 Moral and ethical factors
16. A New Decision Science
 Futures
research; foresight; FTA
 Intuition,
imagination: experience, subtle clues
 Psychology;
 Balance
personal utility functions
of risks and rewards
 Experiments
and analogy
 Understanding
 Moral
courage
innate illogic of human thinking
17. Some Dangers on the Horizon
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Privacy compromised: everyone tracked.
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Confusion over what is real
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Computers evolve; bio- WMD; new diseases
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SIMAD, asymmetrical war, extremism,
proliferation
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Internet dangers: drug manufacture, etc.
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Hunger to do what is right but effective
decisions, leadership, and action seem missing
Source: Millennium Project, S&T
Study 2001, and TG
18. Some Promises on the Horizon
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Diminishing population growth, infant mortality
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Control of AIDS, new resources
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Improved wealth, education, health, and literacy
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An ethic that reveres the future, promotes
effective interventions
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Global action against common dangers (e.g.
SARS)
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A new rationality
Source: Millennium Project, S&T
Study 2001, and TG