Transcript Document
Shaping a
Sustainable
Future
Ian Lowe
22 February, 2007
The fundamental premise
Future
not somewhere we are
going, but something we are
creating
Many
We
possible futures
should be trying to shape a
sustainable future
How could we create
unsustainable futures ?
Exponential
population growth
Growing consumption per person
Deplete mineral resources, e.g. Oil
Over-use fisheries, forests, water
Disrupt the global climate
Base economy on resource use
Widen inequality
Embrace materialism
“Our present course
is unsustainable postponing action is
no longer an option”
- GEO 2000 [UNEP 1999]
Oil, gas resources
Oil
peak 2009 _+ 6 years ?
Gas
[
peak ~ 2040 ?
no energy shortage ]
Other resource issues
Water
Productive
Forests
Fisheries
land
Economic futures
Increasing
resource use
Degradation of natural systems
Value-adding, innovation crucial
So education, research investments
Sustainable economic future ?
Beyond growth to steady state ?
Link to quality of life ?
Social cohesion
World
becoming less equal
Increasing tension within and between
societies
All of us should be able to realise our
potential – physically, intellectually,
emotionally
UNDP: all could have shelter, food,
water, health care and education for
about 5 % of global military budget !
Millennium Assessment
Report
Released March 2005
Experts and Review Process
Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries
80-person independent board of review editors
Reviewed by 850 experts and governments
Governance
Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000
Authorised by governments through 4 conventions
Finding #1
Over the past 50 years, humans have
changed ecosystems more rapidly and
extensively than in any comparable
period of time in human history
This has resulted in a substantial and
largely irreversible loss in the diversity
of life on Earth
Millennium Assessment Report 2005
Significant and largely irreversible
changes to species diversity
Humans have increased the species
extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times
over background rates typical over the
planet’s history
10–30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian
species are currently threatened with
extinction
Millennium Assessment Report 2005
Increased likelihood of
non-linear changes
There is established but incomplete
evidence that our impacts on
ecosystems are increasing the
likelihood of non-linear changes …
with important consequences for
human well - being
Millennium Assessment Report 2005
An example of non-linear change
Millennium Assessment Report 2005
The Knowledge Base
Much damage done by applying narrow
knowledge to part of the system
Develop a much better understanding of
complex natural systems, including links
between local and global processes
Use this improved understanding to reduce
the impacts of human activities on the
natural world
Sustainability science
“a growing body of evidence and
experience suggests that the
needed understanding must
encompass the interaction of
global processes with the
ecological and social
characteristics of particular places
and sectors…”
Kates et al, 2001
Sustainability Science
Explicitly
recognises our ignorance of
complex self-organising systems
Works at multiple scales of
organisation
Knowledge provisional, subjective
Includes social, ecological
characteristics of place or region
Requires new styles of organisation
Promotes social learning
Some possible futures
Market
forces - growing inequality and
worsening environmental problems
Fortress world - keep order by force ?
Breakdown - collapse of support
systems
Political response - but where is the
will to take the hard decisions ?
“Great transition” to sustainable world
driven by new values
Collapse: Diamond
Societies
choose to fail or survive
Problems can be resolved
Cultural values, social institutions
determine if concerted response
“declining standard of living in a
steadily deteriorating environment”
Signs of hope: new thinking
Survival: new values, practices
The underlying drivers
Population
growth
Consumption
Societal
per person
values
New suite of values
Domination
of nature becomes
ecological sensitivity
Consumerism
quality of life
Individualism
replaced by
-> human solidarity
Sustainable community will:
Have
stabilised its population & footprint
Use resources sustainably to produce a
dynamic, flexible economy
Be approaching a zero waste society
Have drastically cut carbon emissions
Require developments biodiversity +ve
Be committed to improving equality
Therefore serious TBL assessments
Process for difficult decisions
HEALTHIER futures
Humane
Ecocentric
Approach
Long Time Horizon
Informed
Efficient
Resourced
Utopian?
1800: end slavery
1900: universal franchise
1987:
Berlin Wall
South Africa without apartheid
lap-tops, mobile phones
good coffee, civilised licensing laws
in Queensland
Practically all features of modern life
There are always excuses for not
taking action and without a genuine
popular mandate for change, we
cannot be surprised or outraged if
courage fails and progress is
minimal.
Our responsibility is to help change
that popular motivation and so give
courage to our leaders.
Rowan Williams, Archbishop of Canterbury, 2005
Prendre des
chemins de
courage!