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Updates on State of the Future and the Millennium Project for the Harvard Business School Alumni/DC Area Jerome C. Glenn Director, The Millennium Project The Future will be more complex and change more rapidly… …than most people think • The factors that made such changes are changing faster now, than 25 years ago • Therefore, the next 25 years should make the speed of change over the last 25 years seem slow • Hence, we need to upgrade futures assessment and strategy capacities The Millennium Project is Global... • Geographically • Institutionally • Disciplinarily • Research focus UN Universities Organizations Millennium Project Governments Corporations NGOs … May become a TransInstitution Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local views in: Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training. Previous and Current Sponsors Corporations • • • • • • • • • • Applied Materials Deloitte & Touche LLP Ford Motor Company General Motors Hershey Company Hughes Space and Communications Monsanto Company Motorola Corporation Pioneer Hi-Bred International Shell International Foundations/NGOs • Alan F. Kay & Hazel Henderson • • • Foundation for Social Innovation Amana-Kay (Brazil) Foundation for the Future (USA) Rockefeller Foundation Government Organizations • Azerbaijan – Min. of Communications • Dubai – Knowledge/Human DevAuthority • South Korea – Ministry of Education • South Korea – Ministry of Budget • Kuwait Oil Company • Kuwait Petroleum Corporation • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency • U.S. Army Environmental Policy Inst. • U.S. Department of Energy • U.S. Woodrow Wilson Center UN & Related Organizations • United Nations University • UNESCO • UNDP • World Bank Millennium Project Global Challenges Assessment 1996-97 15 Issues 182 Developments with 131 Actions & 1999-2009 Global Challenges 15 Challenges with Distilled Into 213 Actions 1998-99 General description Regional views Actions Indicators 1997-98 15 Opportunities 180 Developments with 213 Actions 2000-2009 State of the Future Index (SOFI) National SOFIs SOFI Real Time Delphi 15 Global Challenges–the Agenda today 1 How cancan sustainable development How sustainable development be be achieved for all? achieved for all? 2 How can have sufficient How caneveryone everyone have sufficient clean waterwithout without conflict? clean water conflict? 15 How can ethical How can ethical considerations considerations 3 How can population growth and How can population growth and become moreroutinely routinely become more resources be brought into balance? resources be brought into balance? incorporatedinto into global decisions? incorporated global decisions? 4 14 How can democracy How cangenuine genuine democracy How can and How canscientific scientific and emergefrom from authoritarian emerge authoritarian technological technological breakthroughs breakthroughs be be regimes? accelerated to improve the regimes? accelerated to improve the human condition? 5 How Howcan can policymaking policymaking be be human condition? 13 mademore more sensitive to to How can energy made sensitive How cangrowing growing energy global long-term demandsbe bemet met safely and demands safely and global long-term perspectives? efficiently? efficiently? perspectives? How can transnational 6 12 How can transnational How can How canthe the global global organized crime networks be convergence of of information organized crime networks be convergence information stopped from becoming more and communications stopped from becoming more and communications technologies work for powerful and sophisticated powerful and sophisticated technologies work for everyone? global enterprises? global enterprises? everyone? 7How 11 How thechanging changing ethical market Howcan can the How can can ethical market status women improve statusof of women improve economies be encouraged to economies be encouraged to the human condition? help reduce the gap between the human condition? help reduce the gap rich and poor? How can shared values and new 10 How between rich and poor? can shared values and new 8 thethreat threat of new Howcan can the of new and and security strategies reduce ethnic How security strategies reduce ethnic reemerging diseases and immune conflicts, terrorism, and the useuse of of reemerging diseases and immune conflicts, terrorism, and the microorganisms be reduced? weapons of mass destruction? microorganisms be reduced? weapons of mass destruction? How can the capacity to decide be 9 How can the capacity to decide be improved thenature nature of work improvedas as the of work and and institutions change? change? institutions Some updates: • There are more Internet users in China than people in the USA • March 2009 an asteroid missed the Earth by 48,000 miles, 80% • • • • • • closer to the earth than the moon. None knew it was coming. US-China meetings on Global Climate Change collaboration (Apollolike goal and NASA-line Energy-Climate Change Agency) China could pass US Economy by 2030, assuming it does not break up (water, income gaps, energy, separatist Muslim region). World pop – 6.78 billion (June 2009) and growing at 1.14% per year (1.16% last year); hi, mid, low projections for 2050 - 10.5, 9.2, 8.0 billion, and than falls without longevity breakthroughs; Industrial countries fertility rates UP from 1.35 projected in 2006 to 1.64 IMF: the world economy grew 5.2% in 2007, 3.4% in 2008, and is expected to only grow 0.5% in 2009 and 3% in 2010. 7% annual growth in developing countries over past 5 years, to drop to 3% for 2009 – still 3 billion people living on $2 or less per day; The concept of Resilience increasing—the capacity to anticipate, Five Key Geopolitical Energy Issues 1. G-2 Global Climate Change Apollo-like goal and 2. 3. 4. 5. program vs. Political instability of China Success or failure of Cap & Trade and CCS on a scale to prevent environmental backlash Political Islam peaceful transition vs. dirty bombs and SIMAD (bioweapon) Conversion to electric vehicles with Bolivian-led Lithium Cartel and Global wireless transmission system and Japanled Space Solar Power Cartel Delphi Some (35) Economic Elements Emerging over the next 20 years You are invited! Deadline: May 22nd • Invitation: http://www.millennium-project.org and • • select What’s New You can access the questionnaire at www.realtimedelphi.org and register on the left side of the front page. After entering your email address, you will be asked for the access code. The code is: fin09 Emerging Elements of Global Economic System to improve the human condition over by 2030 • Ethics in most work relations and economic exchanges. • New GDP definitions that include all forms of national wealth: e.g., • • • • • • energy, materials, ecosystems, social and human capital. Simultaneous knowing – time lags changed or eliminated in information dissemination with much greater transparency. Global commons tax – (bees necessary for agriculture, etc.) supported by international tax agreements on currency trading & int’l travel. Value of natural resources used in production included in prices Women’s political-economic roles essentially on par with men (including recognition that women are penalized more than men in an economic crisis). Collective intelligence - global commons for the knowledge economy Non-ownership, as distinct from private ownership or collective/state ownership. A current example is open source software. Most Controversial Elements of the Emerging Global Economic System (bimodal distribution) • Global mechanisms for automatic financial stabilization; e.g., international convention for automated system (expert software) to make financial policy changes as economic conditions change, conducted initially in larger economic countries. • Artificial life (as computers were a key element in the information economy, so too artificial life might be a key to the next economy) • Artificial economies emerging in virtual worlds (e.g. Second Life), which include both mirror images of our real world economy and a far richer palette of values and metaphors driving these virtual economies. • Single global currency Collective Intelligence • • • • • • Is an emergent property from synergies among • data/info/knowledge • software/hardware • experts that continually learns from feedback to produce (nearly) just in time knowledge for better decisions than these elements acting alone. Wikipedia is an early example. GENIS is another. For further information Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project 4421 Garrison Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016 USA +1-202-686-5179 phone/fax [email protected] WEB 1.0 www.StateoftheFuture.org WEB 2.0 www.mpcollab.org Second Life MP site under construction