Transcript The Millennium Project Global Challenges and Futures Research Methodologies for the UN Jerome C.

The Millennium Project
Global Challenges and
Futures Research Methodologies
for the UN
Jerome C. Glenn
Director, The Millennium Project
World Federation of UN Associations
Outline
1.
Increasing complexity and change requires
upgrades to futures research systems
2.
The Millennium Project
3.
Prospects for Global Challenges
4.
Examples of futures research methods
5.
Some applications for the UN
6.
Open discussion
The Future will be more complex
and change more rapidly…
…than most people think
• The factors that made such changes are
changing faster now, than 25 years ago
• Therefore, the next 25 years should make
the speed of change over the last 25 years
seem slow
• Hence, we need to upgrade futures
assessment and strategy capacities
s
2050
2025
2008
Wikipedia
The Millennium Project
... is a new kind of think tank
…established in 1996
…after a 3-year feasibility study
UN
Universities
Organizations
Millennium
Project Governments
Corporations
NGOs
… May become a TransInstitution
Millennium Project Nodes...
are groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local
views in:
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct
interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
Millennium Project
Global Challenges Assessment
1996-97
15 Issues
182 Developments
with
131 Actions
&
1999-2007
Global Challenges
15 Challenges
with
Distilled Into
213 Actions
1998-99

General description

Regional views

Actions

Indicators
1997-98
15 Opportunities
180 Developments
with
213 Actions
2000-2007
State of the Future Index (SOFI)
National SOFIs
SOFI Real Time Delphi
15 Global Challenges–the Agenda today
1
How
cancan
sustainable
development
How
sustainable development
be be
achieved
for
all?
achieved
for
all?
2
How
can
have
sufficient
How
caneveryone
everyone have
sufficient
clean
waterwithout
without conflict?
clean
water
conflict?
15
How
can
ethical
How
can
ethical considerations
considerations
3
How can
population
growth
and
How
can
population
growth
and
become
moreroutinely
routinely
become
more
resources
be
brought
into
balance?
resources be brought into balance?
incorporatedinto
into global
decisions?
incorporated
global
decisions?
4
14
How
can
democracy
How
cangenuine
genuine democracy
How
can
and
How
canscientific
scientific and
emergefrom
from authoritarian
emerge
authoritarian
technological
technological breakthroughs
breakthroughs be be
regimes?
accelerated
to
improve
the
regimes?
accelerated to improve the
human condition?
5
How
Howcan
can policymaking
policymaking be be
human condition?
13
mademore
more sensitive
to to
How
can
energy
made
sensitive
How
cangrowing
growing energy
global
long-term
demandsbe
bemet
met safely
and
demands
safely
and
global long-term
perspectives?
efficiently?
efficiently?
perspectives?
How
can transnational
6
12 How can transnational
How
can
How
canthe
the global
global
organized
crime networks be
convergence of
of information
organized crime networks be
convergence
information
stopped
from
becoming
more
and communications
stopped
from
becoming more
and communications
technologies work for
powerful
and
sophisticated
powerful
and
sophisticated
technologies
work for
everyone?
global
enterprises?
global
enterprises?
everyone?
7How
11
How
thechanging
changing
ethical
market
Howcan
can the
How can
can ethical
market
status
women
improve
statusof
of women
improve
economies be
encouraged
to
economies
be
encouraged
to
the
human
condition?
help
reduce
the
gap
between
the human condition?
help reduce the gap
rich and poor?
How
can
shared
values
and
new
10 How
between rich and poor?
can shared values and new
8
thethreat
threat
of new
Howcan
can the
of new
and and
security
strategies
reduce
ethnic How
security
strategies reduce
ethnic
reemerging
diseases
and
immune
conflicts,
terrorism, and
the
useuse
of of
reemerging diseases and immune
conflicts,
terrorism,
and
the
microorganisms be reduced?
weapons
of
mass
destruction?
microorganisms
be reduced?
weapons of mass destruction?
How
can
the
capacity
to
decide
be
9 How can the capacity to decide be
improved
thenature
nature
of work
improvedas
as the
of work
and and
institutions change?
change?
institutions
Table Contents (print section –
100 pages)
Executive Summary
15 Global Challenges
State of the Future Index
Real-Time Delphi
Government Future Strategy Units and
Some Potentials for International
Strategic Coordination
5. Global Energy Collective Intelligence
•
1.
2.
3.
4.
Table of Contents (CD section –
6,300 pages)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1. Global Challenges (1,100 pages)
2. State of the Future Index Section
2.1 Global SOFI (286 pages)
2.2 National SOFIs (89 pages)
2.3 Global Challenges Assessment (94 pages)
3. Global Scenarios
3.1 Normative Scenario to the Year 2050 (21 pages)
3.2 Exploratory Scenarios (41 pages)
3.3 Very Long-Range Scenarios-1,000 years (23 pages)
3.4 Counterterrorism-Scenarios, Actions, and Policies (40 pages)
3.5 Science and Technology 2025 Global Scenarios (21 pages)
3.6 Global Energy Scenarios 2020 (103 pages)
3.7 Middle East Peace Scenarios (91 pages)
4. Governance-related Studies
4.1 Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination
4.2 Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)
4.3 World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)
5. Science and Technology
5.1 Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400 pages)
5.2 Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21 pages)
6. Global Energy Collective Intelligence
7. Education and Learning 2030 (59 pages)
8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
8.1 Measuring Sustainable Development (61 pages)
8.2 Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9 pages)
8.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development (48 pages)
8.4 A Marshall Plan for Haiti (12 pages)
Table of Contents (CD section)
•
•
•
•
9. Environmental Security
9.1 Emerging Environmental Security Issues
9.2 Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations (42
pages)
9.3 Environmental Security: UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions (113
pages)
9.4 Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)—UN Perspectives
(31 pages)
9.5 Environmental Security and Potential Military Requirements (44 pages)
10. Future Ethical Issues (69 pages)
11. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking
(55 pages)
Appendices
Appendix A: Millennium Project Participants
Appendix B: State of the Future Index Section
Appendix C: Global Scenarios
Appendix D: Science and Technology
Appendix E: Global Energy Collective Intelligence
Appendix F: Government Future Strategy Units
Appendix G: Education and Learning 2030
Appendix H: Global Ethics
Appendix I: Global Goals for the Year 2050
Appendix J: World Leaders on Global Challenges
Appendix K: Environmental Security Studies
Appendix L: Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
Appendix M: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking
Appendix N: Real Time Delphi Process
Appendix O: Annotated Bibliography of About 700 Scenario Sets
Appendix P: Other Annotated Bibliographies:
Ethics Related Organizations
Global Energy Scenarios and Related Research
Women/Gender Organizations
Appendix R: Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of the State of the Future and the Millennium Project
Appendix S: Publications of the Millennium Project
State of the Future is
published around the world
1. Chinese Editions: Chinese Finance and Economic Publishing House
and the Ministry of Science and Technology, Peoples Republic of China
2. Spanish Editions: Externado University, Bogotá, Colombia and
Teachers Union in Mexico
3. Korean Editions: MaeKyung Publishing Inc., Seoul, Korea
4. Arabic Edition: Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
5. French Edition: l’Institut Destrée, Namur–Wallonie, Belguim
6. Farsi Editions, MATN Co., and the Ministry of Islamic Culture and
Guidance, Tehran, Iran
7. Czech and Slovak Editions: Charles University, Prague, Czech
Republic; and Academy of Science Bratislava, Slovak Republic
8. Russian & Azuri Edition, Azerbaijan Futures Society, Baku Azerbaijan
9. Partial translations in Japanese, German, and Portuguese
Futures Research Methodology
Version 2.0
1. Introduction & Overview
2. Environmental Scanning
3. Delphi
4. Futures Wheel
5. Trend Impact Analysis
6. Cross-Impact Analysis
7. Structural Analysis
8. Systems Perspectives
9. Decision Modeling
10. Statistical Modeling
11. Technological Sequence Analysis
12. Relevance Trees and Morph. Analysis
13. Scenarios 13.5 Interactive Scenarios
14. Participatory Methods
Methods
15. Simulation and Games
16. Genius Forecasting, Vision, Intuition
17. Normative Forecasting
18. S&T Road Mapping
19. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR)
20. Text Mining for Technology Foresight
21. Agent Modeling
22. SOFI
23. SOFI Software
24. The Multiple Perspective Concept
25. Tool Box for Scenario Planning
26. Causal Layered Analysis
27. Integration, Comparisons, and
Frontiers of Futures Research
Futures Research Methodology
Version 3.0 (Spring 2009)
1. Introduction to the Futures Research
1.5 Evaluation and organization of Methods
2. Environmental Scanning
3. The Delphi Method
4. Real-Time Delphi
5. The Futures Wheel
6. The Futures Polygon
i7. Trend Impact Analysis
8. Cross-Impact Analysis
9. Wild Cards
10. Structural Analysis
11. The Systems Perspectives
12. Decision Modeling
l13. Substitution Analysis
14. Statistical Modeling
l15. Technology Sequence
16. Morphological Analysis
17. Relevance Trees
18. Scenarios
19. Interactive Scenarios (software)
20. Robust Decisionmaking
21. Participatory Methods
22. Simulation and Games
23. Genius Forecasting and Intuition
24. Visioning for Strategic Planning
25. Normative Forecasting
26. TRIZ
27. S&T Road Mapping
28. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR)
29. Text Mining for Technology Foresight
30. Agent Modeling (demo software)
31. Prediction Markets
32. Forecasting By Artificial Neural Networks
33. State of the Future Index
34. SOFI Software System
35. Multiple Perspective Concept
36. A Toolbox for Scenario Planning
37. Heuristics Modeling
38. Personal Futures
39. Causal Layered Analysis
40. Linking Methods
41. Integration, Comparisons, and Frontiers
Upgrading UN Futures Systems
• Connect government and UN agency future strategy units
•
•
•
•
•
•
via Web/intranet with the Offices of the SG
Create an interoperable global futures scanning system in
the SG’s Office and in each major UN organ
Design a global situation room that integrates these
scanning systems for the SG – it might initially focus on
global climate change
Develop a UN integrated information system for just in time
knowledge to support the Secretariat’s management
Use Real-time Delphi to rapidly collect best judgments
world-wide to support decisionmaking
Connect UN-Gov Strategic Intranet, RT Delphi usage, UN
situation room, and UN’s information system
Integrate UN indicators (HDI, MDGs, etc.) into an overall UN
State of the Future Index
What should an Intranet connecting
government & UN futures units be?
• Information on each participating country and UN Agency
futures unit including brief descriptions of each unit’s
• Policy focus and time horizon
• Methodologies used
• Non-classified projects with a 10-15 word description
of each projects' thrust + a contact person
• Links to key resources (everyone could recommend their top
3 books, websites, comprehensive resources)
• A Wiki and/or blog space for free-flowing discussion (pass
word protected)
• Internal email listserv
Generic Futures Scanning System
Press Releases
Newsletters
Journals
Key Word
Internet
Searching
Monitor Specific
Websites
Conferences
Seminars
Key Persons
Tracking
SCANNING
Analysis & Synthesis
Individual
Feedback
&
New Requirements
Staff
Management
Collective
Intelligence System
Decisions
Management
Future-oriented understanding
and learning
Real-Time Delphi
• Developed in 2004 to increase the efficiency
of the Delphi process
• Rapid collection of expert judgments to aid
decision making.
• With Internet, participants can see feedback
instantly, participate where and when is
convenient.
• Roundless – Participant returns to edit as
many times as he/she likes until the deadline
Real-Time Delphi (example)
Collective Intelligence
•
•
•
•
•
•
Is an emergent property
from synergies among
• data/info/knowledge
• software/hardware
• experts
that continually learns from feedback
to produce just in time knowledge for
better decisions
than these elements acting alone.
Wikipedia is an early example. GENIS is
another.
GENIS (Global Energy Network
and Information System)
• The Global Energy Network (GEN), providing
communications and collaboration capabilities for a
worldwide community of experts and others working
on, or concerned with, energy issues;
• The Global Energy Information System (GEIS), a
repository (knowledge base) and associated
interactive access facility for as much of the world's
total knowledge (actual content, pointers to external
systems, and ability to mashup from other databases
into one integrated set of outputs) about energy as
can be accumulated.
Conventional
user interface
will be offered
as well as
alternatives
User interfaces should show
relation of parts and the whole
An Information unit can be:
• linked with ‘attributes’ – see right column
• edited wikipedia-like by GEN
• Receive additional inputs to be added to
open-ended non-peer reviewed
Issue overview display wiki
Energy Dashboard
State of the Future Index (SOFI)
• A synthesis of variables to help answer the
question “Is the future getting better or
worse?”
• A tool for
• Policy analysis
• Improving discussion about the future
• Education
• National comparisons
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Population lacking access to improved water sources (percent of population)
Literacy rate, adult total (percent of people aged 15 and above)
Levels of corruption (15 largest countries)
School enrollment, secondary (percent gross)
Poverty headcount ratio at $1 a day (PPP) (percent of population) (low- and middleincome countries)
6. Countries having or thought to have plans for nuclear weapons (number)
7. Carbon dioxide emissions (global, kt)
8. Unemployment, total (percent of total labor force)
9. GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2000 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent)
10.Number of major armed conflicts (number of deaths >1,000)
11.Population growth (annual percent)
12.R&D expenditures (percent of national budget)
13.People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (number)
14.Energy produced from non-fission, non-fossil sources (percent of total primary
energy supply)
15.Food availability (cal/cap)
16.Population in countries that are free (percent of total global population)
17.Global surface temperature anomalies
18.GDP per capita (constant 2000 $)
19.People voting in elections (percent population of voting age)
20.Physicians (per 1,000 population)(surrogate for health care workers)
21.Internet users (per 1,000 population)
22.Infant mortality (deaths per 1,000 births)
23.Forestland (percent of all land area)
24.Life expectancy at birth (years)
25.Women in parliaments (percent of all members)
26.Number of refugees (per 100,000 total population)
27.Total debt service (percent of GNI) (low- and middle-income countries)
28.Prevalence of HIV (percent of population)
29.Homicides, intentional (per 100,000 population)
1.30
1.20
1.10
Base
1.00
UQ
Med
0.90
LQ
0.80
0.70
0.60
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
INFANT MORTALITY per 1000
NUMBER CONFLICTS
% POVERTY ($1/DAY)
% LACKING WATER
POPULATION GROWTH*10
PHYSICIANS/10000
1987
% WOMEN IN PARLIAMENTS
1997
CALORIES/CAP/100
2007
%INTERNET USERS
2017
GDP/CAP/100
LIFE EXPECTANCY
% SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
% LITERACY
0
20
40
60
80
100
% VOTING POPULATION
CO2 (M TONS)
CORRUPTION (TI*100/7)
1987
HOMICIDES / MIL
1997
2007
% UNEMPLOYMENT * 10
2017
TEMPERATURE ANOM* 100
TERRORISM (kill,
wound)/1000
0
20
40
60
80
100
TransInstutions
1. Board/Committee/Council: self-selected
2.
3.
4.
5.
governments, corporations, NGOs, Universities
but not a majority from any one institutional
category
People who work in it or with it come from all
these institutional categories, but not a
majority of any one
Results affect all these institutional categories
Income from all these institutional categories
except university (then take not give money)
TransInstitutions could be created for each of
the UN Millennium Development Goals
•
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Executive Summary
15 Global Challenges
State of the Future Index
Real-Time Delphi
Gov Future Strategy Unite
Global Energy Collective
Intelligence
6. Environmental Security
• Plus 6,300-page CD of 12
years’ collective research
from the Millennium
Project
For further information
Jerome C. Glenn
The Millennium Project
4421 Garrison Street, NW,
Washington, D.C. 20016 USA
+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax
[email protected]
WEB 1.0 www.StateoftheFuture.org
WEB 2.0 www.mpcollab.org
Current Sponsors of the
Millennium Project
1. Applied Materials (overhead)
2. Azerbaijan Ministry of Communications (Government training)
3. Deloitte & Touche, LLP (overhead)
4. Foundation for the Future (Energy Collective Intelligence design)
5. Government of the Republic of Korea (Korean SOFI & Gov Strategy units)
6. The Hershey Company (overhead and RT Delphi)
7. Rockefeller Foundation (Futures Research Methodology 3.0 and capacity
for Developing countries
8. U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute (Environmental Security reports)
9. UNESCO (use of RT Delphi for World Water Scenarios)
10.World Bank (via World Perspectives, Inc. use of RT Delphi to evaluation of
Global Environment Facility)
• If we have time…
Futures Wheel
Trend or Event
Cross-impact trends and/or
potential future events
Trend 1 Trend 2 Trend 3 Trend 4 Trend 5
Trend 1
Trend 2
Trend 3
Trend 4
Trend 5
Connecting Futures Research
to Decision-Making
1. Make sure leaders know what futures research is and is not
2. Include decision makers in the process, connect to strategic planning
3. Include workshops and training for decisionmakers
4. Include interest groups and actors
5. If goals are lacking, include as an issue
6. Determine who has responsibility to act
7. Balance long-term and short term views
8. Use at least one formal method that all understand
9. Provide information that demonstrates a crisis
10. Include knowledge about what is possible
11. Make options clear; connect to goals and strategies
12. Demonstrate feasibility of recommendations
13. Include subjective descriptions of alternative futures
Futures Research and
Decisionmaking (continued)
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
Connect costs to benefits
Suggest ways of making decisions in uncertainty
Include intended actions of others
Develop indicators
Using testimony of eminent scientists
Project affects of action or non action in scenarios
Show technical feasibility to overcome fear of failure
Use computer models
Link to similar activities
Avoid information overload
Allow time for individuals to integrate concepts
Include media
Make work integrative and cumulative
Notes to self - Collective
Intelligence
• emergent property from synergies among
•
•
data/info/intel, software/hardware, and experts,
that continually learns from feedback to
produce just in time knowledge for better
decisions than these elements acting alone.
CI is produced by people and information
systems that produce just in time knowledge for
better decision and insights
Wikipedia is an early example. GENIS is
another.
Forecast charts of this sort are available for all SOFI variables and are
important and useful in identifying issues and creating policy
GDP per capita
(constant 2000 US$)
11000.0
10000.0
Base
9000.0
UQ
8000.0
MED
7000.0
LQ
6000.0
Best
Worst
5000.0
4000.0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Definition of a Scenario:
A scenario is a story with plausible cause
and effect links that connects a future
condition with the present, while illustrating
key decisions, events, and consequences
throughout the narrative.
A Scenario is not:
• A projection – although projections are
included in a scenario.
• A discussion about a range of future
possibilities with data and analysis – It is
like confusing the text of a play's
newspaper review with the text of the play
written by the playwright.
Classic Herman Kahn Scenarios
• Surprise-free, business-as-usual,
reference, base-case scenario is a
simple extrapolation of current
trends and their interplay
• Worst case scenario based on
mismanagement and bad luck
• Best case scenario based on good
management and good luck.
“Scenario Space”
Defined by Axes
Axes Define
“Scenario
Space”
Global
Political
Stability
Global
Political
Turmoil
Many High
Tech Breakthroughs
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Few High Tech Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Breakthroughs
Like it or not,
the world is in our hands