Transcript The Millennium Project a virtual participatory think tank

97 pages in print
3,800 pages in the
CD
Table of Contents
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Executive summary
Chapter 1 Fifteen Global Challenges
Chapter 2 Global SOFI
Chapter 3 National SOFIs
Chapter 4 Future Ethical Issues
Chapter 5 Nanotech – Preventing downsides
Chapter 6 Environmental Security
Chapter 7 Sustainable Development Index
CD-ROM of 3,800 Pages
2005 SOF’s CD Section
Executive Summary (11 pages)
1. Global Challenges (790 pages)
2. State of the Future Index Section (Global SOFI (220); National SOFIs (33) Global
Challenges Assessment (94))
3. Future Ethical Issues (80 pages)
4. Global Scenarios (Normative to the Year 2050 (18); Exploratory (40); Very LongRange Scenarios—1,000 years (23); Counterterrorism (40); S&T 2025 Global
Scenarios (19); Middle East Peace Scenarios (90)
5. Science and Technology (Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400);
Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21)
6. Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)
7. World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)
8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development (Measuring SD (59); Quality
and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9); Partnership for SD (48)
9. Environmental Security (510 pages) (Emerging ES Issues; ES: Emerging
International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations; UN Doctrine for
Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions; Environmental Crimes in
Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)—UN Perspectives; ES
and Potential Military Requirements)
10. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in
Appendices
Appendix A:
Appendix B:
Appendix C:
Appendix D:
Appendix E:
Appendix F:
Appendix G:
Appendix H:
Appendix I:
Appendix J:
Millennium Project Participants (affiliation/country)
State of the Future Index Section
Global Ethics
Global Scenarios
Science and Technology
Global Goals for The Year 2050
World Leaders on Global Challenges
Measuring & Promoting Sustainable Development
Environmental Security Studies
Factors Required for Successful Implementation of
Futures Research in Decisionmaking
Appendix K: Annotated Bibliography of About 600 Scenario Sets
Appendix L: Publications of the Millennium Project
Acronyms and Abbreviations
Highlights
• Organized crime is more than twice that of all military
budgets worldwide
• Internet connects 1 billion people - 15% of the World
• 60% of the environmental life support system is gone or
unsustainable
• 24-7 ubiquitous computing accelerates decisionmaking
• IQ as competitive advantage in the knowledge economy
• Indo/China’s hightech/low wage forces rest of Third
World to re-think trade-lead growth strategies
• 500 environmental agreement; faster implications – Chart
on Page 87: rising global environmental consciousness
• Nanotech health/environmental impacts rapidly being
assessed.
The Future will be more than
most people think
• The rate of change over the last 25 years
ago, will appear slow compared to the next
15 years.
• Compare last 25 years – no PCs, WWW,
mobile phones, AIDS, Cold War – with next:
NIBCtechs, social self-organization, global
brain, conscious-technology
• Failure of imagination, losing opportunities
Examples of some future ethical
issues
• Do we have a right to clone ourselves?
• Do parents have the right to create genetically altered
“designer babies”?
• Should there be two standards: one for the
technologically altered and another for the “naturals?”
Values underlying such issues
may change over time
• A Delphi panel of over 400 selected by the 25
Nodes of the Millennium Project for their
scholarship and/or interest in future ethical
issues.
• The panel rated which values were likely to
increase and decrease around the world over the
next 50 years/
Values likely to decrease over the
next 50 years:
• Life is a divine unalterable gift.
• Economic progress is the most reliable path to
human happiness.
• The family in all its forms is the foundation of
social values.
• Human rights should always prevail over the
rights of other living and non-living things.
Values likely to increase
over the next 50 years:
• Harmony with nature is more important than economic
progress.
• Protection of the environment and biodiversity should
be considered in any policy.
• The rights of women and children are uninfringeable
and fundamental for a healthy society.
• World interests should prevail over nation-state interests.
• Human space migration is part of human evolution.
• Any artificial form of life intelligent enough to request
rights should be given these rights and be treated with
the same respect as humans
Millennium Project
Global Challenges Assessment
1996-97
15 Issues
182 Developments
with
131 Actions
&
1999-2005
Global Challenges
15 Challenges
with
Distilled Into
213 Actions
1998-99
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General description
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Regional views
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Actions
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Indicators
1997-98
15 Opportunities
180 Developments
with
213 Actions
2000-2005
Global State of the Future Index (SOFI)
National SOFIs ( 8 countries of the Americas)
15 Global Challenges
1. Sustainable Development
9. Decision-Making Capacities
2. Water
10. Peace & Conflict
3. Population and Resources
11. Improving Women’s Status
4. Democratization
12. Transnational Crime
5. Global, Long-Term
Policymaking
13. Energy Demands
6. Globalization of Information
Technology
7. Rich-Poor Gap
8. Changing disease threats
14. Science & Technology
15. Global Ethics
SOFI Analysis
Why did the SOFI grow?
What held the SOFI back?
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GDP per capita grew
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Industrial CO2 emissions grew
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Calories per capita increased
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Unemployment moved increased
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Life expectancy grew
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Forest Lands dropped
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Literacy grew
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Rich Poor Gap grew
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Infant Mortality dropped
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AIDs Deaths grew
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Access to Fresh Water
improved
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Developing Country Debt
increased
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Access to Health Care improved
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Terrorist Attacks
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School Enrollment Improved
Environmental security is
environmental viability for life support…
with three sub-elements:
• Preventing or repairing military damage to the
environment
• Preventing or responding to environmentally caused
conflicts
• Protecting the environment due to the moral value
of the environment itself
UN & EU is taking initiatives
in environmental management
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UN Reform Report Stresses Environmental Issues
UN Report Recommends Basis for Global Security Consensus
UN to Help Tackle Iraq Pollution
UN Conference On Small Island States and Climate Change
UN Conference ‘Water for Food and Ecosystems’
Additional Environmental Security Role for the UN Security Council
EU Environment Ministers Propose post-Kyoto Protocol Climate Policies
EU Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme active on January 1, 2005
EU to Ban the use of Cadmium in Batteries
UK Cooperation with India and Others on the Environment and Sust. Dev.
Conference on Environment, Security and Sustainable Development in The
Hague
European Parliament Resolution to Protect Whales From Sonar
OECD Environment Ministers Call for more Ambitious Policies
Kyoto Protocol came into force in February 2005
Clean Air for Europe Initiative to Limit Air Pollution
Stockholm Convention on POPs to be Expanded
Mini Nanotechnology
Two-Round Delphi Study
• What are potential military uses and their possible health
hazards and environmental impacts? between now and 2010
and between 2010 and 2025?
• What do we have to know to reduce or prevent these potential
problems?
• What are general research priorities to produce the relevant
knowledge to improve future prospects with Nanotech?
The Millennium Project
... is a new kind of think tank
It is Global...
 Geographically
 Institutionally
 Disciplinarily
 Research focus
UN
Universities
Organizations
Millennium
Project Governments
Corporations
NGOs
… May become a TransInstitution
Millennium Project Nodes...
are groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local
views in:
Helsinki
London Berlin
Calgary
Moscow
Paris
Prague
Seoul
Washington,
DC
Silicon Valley
Rome
Tehran
Tokyo
Mexico City
Cairo
New DelhiBeijing
Kuwait
Madurai
Cyber
Caracas
Sao Paulo
Buenos Aires
Pretoria
Sidney
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research,
workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
Millennium Project Nodes
Memorandum of Understands with:
Government Institutions
Russian Academy of Natural Sciences
Chinese Academy of Natural Sciences
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Slovakian Academy of Sciences
Private Companies in
Tokyo (aerospace)
Berlin (futures planning)
Buenos Aires (futures planning)
Silicon Valley (USA) (venture capital)
New Delhi (futures, strategy planning)
Universities in
Prague
London
Rome
Sao Paulo
Cairo
Helsinki
Tehran
Kodaikanal (India)
NGOs in
Venezuela (WFS chapter)
Mexico (new NGO as Node)
Kuwait (non-profit research institute)
Korea (futures organization)
Paris (futurist network)
Relationship of the UNU, AC/UNU,
and the Millennium Project
• United Nations University (UNU) is the principal
academic research organ of the UN,
headquartered in Tokyo.
• The American Council for the UNU (AC/UNU)
created in 1975 as U.S. NGO as the point of
contact between Americans and the UNU.
• The Millennium Project operates under the
auspices of the AC/UNU.
Previous Sponsors over past 10 years
Corporations
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Applied Materials
Deloitte & Touche LLP
Ford Motor Company
General Motors
Hughes Space and Communications
Monsanto Company
Motorola Corporation
Pioneer Hi-Bred International
Shell International
Foundations
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Alan F. Kay & Hazel Henderson
Foundation for Social Innovation
Amana-Kay
Foundation for Social Innovation
Foundation for the Future
Government Organizations
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
U.S. Army Environmental Policy
Institute
U.S. Department of Energy
Woodrow Wilson International Center
for Scholars
Kuwait Oil Company
UN Organizations
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UNDP
UNESCO
United Nations University
Current Activities
• Global Energy Scenarios
• Futures Research Methodology - V 3.0
• Monthly reports of international environmental security issues
• Futures Dictionary/Encyclopedia
• Up-dating Annotated Scenario Bibliography
• Middle East Peace Scenarios dissemination and discussions
• National State of the Future Indexes (SOFIs)
• Updating & Improving Global Challenges and publish 2006 SOF
• Women Issues Organizations and their Research
• Experiments with Collaborative Software
Futures Research Methodology
V2.0
1. Introduction & Overview
2. Environmental Scanning
3. Delphi
4. Futures Wheel
5. Trend Impact Analysis
6. Cross-Impact Analysis
7. Structural Analysis
8. Systems Perspectives
9. Decision Modeling
10. Statistical Modeling
11. Technological Sequence Analysis
12. Relevance Trees and Morph. Analysis
13. Scenarios 13.5 Interactive Scenarios
14. Participatory Methods
15. Simulation and Games
16. Genius Forecasting, Vision, and Int.
17. Normative Forecasting
18. S&T Road Mapping
19. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR)
20. Text Mining for Technology Foresight
21. Agent Modeling
22. SOFI
23. SOFI Software
24. The Multiple Perspective Concept
25. Tool Box for Scenario Planning
26. Causal Layered Analysis
27. Integration, Comparisons, and
Frontiers of Futures Research Methods
The Millennium Project
WWW.STATEOFTHEFUTURE.ORG
[email protected]