Futures tools report

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Transcript Futures tools report

Futures tools report
Scenario-building
Observatory of Innovation, CBS
Definition
“a tool for ordering one’s perceptions
about alternative futures
environments in which one’s decisions
might be played out…This approach is
more a disciplined way of thinking
than a formal methodology”
(Schwartz, 1996).
Definition 2
 “Scenarios are not about predicting
the future, rather they are about
perceiving futures in the present”
(Schwartz, 1996).
Pioneers
 Herman Kahn, On Thermonuclear War
(1960). RAND – public policy
 Pierre Wack – Royal Dutch/Shell; The
Gentle Art of Reperceiving” –
corporate
Epistemological basis
 Work of neuro-biologists suggests
that humans are natural scenariobuilding animals – ability to tell
stories about ourselves in the future;
cognitive link to speech capacity in
the brain
Why use scenarios?
 ‘Scenario thinking, by setting
discussions in a time frame beyond
their current assignment and beyond
facts and forecasts, allows for a
discussion with less defensive
behaviour and a more shared sense
of purpose’ (Ringland, 2002)
Common uses
 Development of strategy and policy –
organisational/spatial
 Heuristic device – ‘re-perceiving’ – in
organisational change
 Stimulate critical thinking, challenge
assumptions – within organisations,
the general population
Methods
 Generic approaches – following the
same basic steps – more art than
science (e.g Ringland, Schwartz)
 More quantitative, ‘engineering’ in
nature (e.g. LIPSOR – Godet)
Range of scenarios
 “Scenarios often (but not always) seem to fall into
three groups: more of the same, but better; worse
(decay and depression); and different but better
(fundamental change).
 “Scenarios are not conceived of one at a time. You
develop a range of two or three possible futures,
allowing you to address an array of possibilities and
rehearse your responses to each of them. At the
same time, more than four scenarios tend to be too
complex: you cannot keep track of their ramifications
in your mind” (Schwartz)
Case studies
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SW England Scenarios Project
VISIONS Project
BMW Regional Assembly
Utah