Scenario Building
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Transcript Scenario Building
Futures Workshop
Turku, 07.06.2006
Scenario Building
Martin Rhisiart
Cardiff Business School
What are scenarios?
Scenarios are stories or narratives
that portray what might happen, why
it might happen, and with what
consequences
Scenarios can be very powerful tools
to contemplate the range of possible
futures that could develop from the
influence of key drivers, events and
issues.
Definitions
“a tool for ordering one’s perceptions
about alternative future environments
in which one’s decisions might be
played out” (Schwartz, 1996).
Pioneers
Herman Kahn, On Thermonuclear War
(1960). RAND – public policy
Pierre Wack – Royal Dutch/Shell; The
Gentle Art of Reperceiving” –
corporate
Why use scenarios?
Offer a non-linear and dynamic way
of thinking
Ability to deal with complexity, to
consider multiple variables
simultaneously, and with ‘different
interpretation’ over time
Counteracts the historical bias of
quantitative forecasting approaches
Challenge assumptions
Why use scenarios? (II)
“Scenario thinking, by setting
discussions in a time frame beyond
their current assignment and beyond
facts and forecasts, allows for a
discussion with less defensive
behaviour and a more shared sense
of purpose” (Ringland, 2002)
Why use scenarios? (III)
“Within Shell, I think the imperative is to use this
tool to gain deeper insights into our global business
environment and to achieve the cultural change
that is at the heart of our Group strategy. We face
real challenges in the future, we will all need to be
able to respond to changing circumstances and
make informed and rigorous judgements about our
decisions: these scenarios and methodology will
help us to do that better.”
Jeroen van der Veer (2005), in global scenarios
report (to 2025)
Epistemological basis
Work of neuro-biologists suggests
that humans are natural scenariobuilding animals – ability to tell
stories about ourselves in the future;
cognitive link to speech capacity in
the brain
Objectives and main uses
Development of strategy and policy –
organisational/spatial
Heuristic device – ‘re-perceiving’ – in
organisational change
Stimulate critical thinking, challenge
assumptions – within organisations,
the general population
Timescale
Varies according to organisational
needs, question addressed and
themes covered; generally 3-5, 10,
20, even 50 years, e.g. mediumlonger term
CIA, Global Trends (2015)
Shell, Energy needs, choices and
possibilities (2050)
Synergy with other tools
Scenario building often makes use of
other tools, e.g. forecasting/
quantitative; expert opinion;
stakeholder opinions etc)
Benefits of using scenarios
Thinking “outside in” – big, external
forces
Creating common language and
understanding – working across
disciplines, departments etc
Organisational alignment to vision
Develop group of people with ability
to think strategically
Methodology and implementation
Several scenario building
methodologies have been developed
Implementation procedure cited here
is a common approach, developed by
Schwartz (1996) and Ringland (2002)
Implementation steps
Step 1: Identify the focal issue or
decision
Step 2: Key forces in the local
environment (microenvironment)
Step 3: Driving forces (macro
environment)
Step 4: Rank by importance and
uncertainty
Implementation steps
Step 5: Selecting scenario logics
Social fragmentation
Non-digital
isolation
Technoatomisation
Digital
diffusion
Digital
desert
Non-digital
benevolence
Digital cohesion
New Solidarity
Implementation steps
Step 6: Fleshing out the scenarios
Step 7: Implications
Step 8: Selection of leading indicators
and signposts
Implementation procedure
Step 9: Feed the scenarios back to
those consulted
Step 10: Discuss the strategic options
Step 11: Agree the implementation
plan
Step 12: Publicise the scenarios
How many scenarios?
“Scenarios are not conceived of one at
a time. You develop a range of two or
three possible futures, allowing you to
address an array of possibilities and
rehearse your responses to each of
them. At the same time, more than
four scenarios tend to be too complex:
you cannot keep track of their
ramifications in your mind” (Schwartz)
Case studies
1. Border, Midland and
Western Region,
Ireland
2. Countryside
Council for
Wales