Transcript MODULE 11: ASSESSING THE FUTURE Introduction This module is designed to address future environmental assessment.

MODULE 11:
ASSESSING THE FUTURE
Introduction
This module is designed to address future
environmental assessment. It helps readers to
develop:
 A good understanding of how present
environmental policy can be linked to the future
 Information on why futuristic environmental policy
studies are conducted
 Knowledge on the importance of emerging issues in
understanding future environmental assessment
studies
 Some skills in scenario development for
environmental assessment
Paths to “the future”
 Current policies have an important influence on
how the future environment will turn out to be.
 Analyses of present actions and policies may be
linked to potential environmental paths
 We can compare the various paths and, within our
limitations, consciously select one with informed
consent about the risks being taken, and the
opportunities it will present for the future of our
environment
 Our real chosen path may be different from our
most preferred path due to various limitations, e.g.
finance, available technology and skills, the
necessity to create jobs, etc.
The context of “the future” in IEA
Within the context of IEA, we assess the
future when:
 We
understand the state of the current
environment, the pressures on it and the
effectiveness of the existing policies
 We know its history and why it has taken the
current trend
 We understand the current dangers it is
facing now and have a vague idea that it
might deteriorate further
Within this context, we ask questions 4 and
5 on the next slide.
The context of “the future”… (cont’d)
In trying to answer this question:
 Other implied questions must also be answered
about what we know and what we want to do
 Where are our current policies taking us?
 Is this where we want to go?
 What other policies could be more useful?
 What consequences might various policy
alternatives have on the environment in future?
 These questions alert the decision making process
to the advantages and dangers of selecting certain
paths in future policy formulation.
Reasons for conducting futuristic
environmental policy studies
 To be aware of the consequences of present
actions and policies on the environment in future
 To detect and avoid the dangers that could happen
in future
 To develop proactive strategies that can be used to
avoid future catastrophes
 To develop a yardstick for a desired future
environment against which we can measure our
performance in advancing preferred alternatives
Emerging issues
Issues whose future potential impact may
not currently be realized by the public or
decision makers but may be vaguely
speculated upon by a few scientists, e.g.
the socioeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS
Speculation is beyond current policy
actions. It is uncertain and labourintensive.
Some recent emerging issues with
impact on the environment
 Global warming – not clearly comprehended
in 1990’s but its impact widely accepted now.
 Long range transport of atmospheric
pollutants – hotly debated by a few scientists
in the 1960’s. Its extent and impact have
been studied successfully using remotely
sensed information.
 New technologies in agricultural production
which culminated in the Green Revolution
(1970’s).
Building scenarios
 Developing possible future environmental
trajectories on issues of interest is very
uncertain
 Can limit alternative paths to a few but this may
have tragic consequences if the analysis is
inaccurate
 May include all possible occurrences and hope
to adjust as environmental issues develop (i.e.
the scenario approach)
 Conceptually, we may develop a funnel
increasing in diameter with time and with less
likely extreme scenarios on the edge of the
funnel.
Centre gives most likely scenarios but disruptive events
may have influence on the range of possible scenarios
Emerging issues must be included in the
development of scenarios as they:
 raise issues of concern for the general public and
increase participation in formulating policy on the
issues,
 encourage preliminary discussion for formulating
policy on issues before they become crises, and
 guide environmental research and data collection
on the issues at an early stage.
Some significant forces driving
scenarios in Africa
 Rapidly increasing population
 Desire for economic diversification from
dependence on natural resources
 Improving social levels of human development
with good stable family incomes
 Effective integration of Africa’s diverse
cultures
 Effective integration of appropriate technology
in the development process
 Sustainable management practices to mitigate
environmental degradation
 Increased local participation, improved
governance, and cooperation beyond national
borders
Scenarios? Why not use trend analysis
or mathematical modelling ?
 Trend analysis and mathematical modelling are
not sufficient for analyzing long range (e.g.
decades, generations) future environmental
events because:
There is always insufficient information to adjust
policies for forces that govern environmental
system dynamics over long periods
 The environmental system, when linked to
socioeconomic systems, becomes extremely
complex with potentials for turbulent behavioural
changes
 The future depends on human choices that are
unknowable. Future human choices may be
made completely outside what may be
considered currently feasible or acceptable

General scenario dynamics of an
environmental system
General scenario dynamics… (cont’d)
 The current state of the environment results from a
history of previous states which have experienced
different pressures
 Looking at the history gives us some idea of how
difficult to develop future trajectories with any
certainty: important forces may have changed the
system dramatically from what might have been
expected
 Current driving forces and pressures condition the
path of the future but that future state is
unpredictable.
 Surprising and extreme occurrences may change
the path of development
Important steps in developing a scenario
Specify the boundary of the analysis
(spatially, thematically and temporally)
Describe the current conditions
Estimate the consequences of the current
situation on the issue of interest
Provide a narrative of the development of
the selected paths of the scenarios
Estimate the change for each option
Give an image of the future with
conclusions about the range of possible
outcomes at point(s) in time
Assessing policy options and scenarios
There are always many possible alternative
frameworks but each must reduce possible
options to a manageable number:
Qualitative narratives have the advantage of
expressing many unquantifiable variables of
scenarios in qualitative terms (e.g. culture,
values, behaviour). Disadvantage: lack of
scientific rigour
 Quantitative models provide rigour but may be
misinterpreted to mean scientific precision
 Most useful scenarios combine qualitative
narrative and quantitative modelling.
