Transcript Scenarios Introduction and Overview - CSIN

Scenarios as
Structured Thinking about the Future
CSIN Learning Event #25
20 June 2007
Dale S. Rothman
International Institute for Sustainable Development
Three Questions
• Why do we want to think about the future in a
structured fashion?
• What does it mean to think about the future in
a structured fashion?
• What are some difficulties in thinking about
the future in a structured fashion and how
might we address them?
Some Quick Thoughts on the Future
• If a man takes no thought about what is distant, he will find sorrow near at
hand.
– Confucius, Chinese philosopher & reformer (551 BC - 479 BC)
• Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
– Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (1885 - 1962)
• The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
– Alan Kay, American computer scientist (1940- )
• “…is any purpose served by attempting long-term perspectives for a
region? Yes!!! I say this not because the forecasts will necessarily be right,
but because they may stimulate helpful actions – actions that may, in fact,
even render the forecasts wrong.”
– Ramgopal Agarwala, Indian economist (?)
Some Practical Reasons for Thinking about
the Future
• to illuminate potential problems
• to share understanding and concerns
• to uncover assumptions and rigorously test
them
• to exploring alternatives in the face of
uncertainty
• to help identify choices and make decisions
Why Do We Want to Think about the
Future in a Structured Fashion?
• Relevance of exercise to goals
• Clarity of communication
– what the images of the future are
– how these were developed
– how insights/lessons derived
• Defensibility of insights
– e.g. robustness of actions, relative ‘desirability’ of
outcomes
What Does it Mean to Think about the
Future in a Structured Fashion?
• Be explicit about your purpose
• Be explicit about your object of study (system)
• Strive for coherence and consistency
What is a Scenario?
Scenarios have been defined in various ways. For the purposes
here a scenario is a coherent and plausible story, told in words
and/or numbers, about a possible future for a specified socioecological system. A scenario will generally include:
• a definition of the system and problem boundaries;
• a characterization of current conditions and trends and the processes driving
change in the system;
• an identification of the key driving forces, critical uncertainties, and system
relationships;
• a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces,
critical uncertainties, and system relationships;
• conditional projections of the behaviour of the system based on these
assumptions on the rest of the system; and
•an image of the future.
What Scenarios are Not
“It is now generally accepted that scenarios do
not predict. Rather, they paint pictures of
possible futures and explore the differing
outcomes that might result if basic assumptions
are changed.” (UNEP, 2002)
Scenarios from a Policy Perspective (I)
• Are there existing or proposed policies you wish to
explore?
• Is there a preconceived end vision, or at least some
aspects of a vision, i.e., specific targets?
• Are the effects of a policy of such magnitude that
they would fundamentally alter the basic structure
of the scenario?
Scenarios from a Policy Perspective (II)
Case
Existing
Policies?
Preconceived
end vision?
Policies
determine
the scenario?
Potential Uses
A
Test ability of policy to create conditions
for success.
B
Test the extent to which the policy can
affect change.
C
Explore role of policy in determining
nature of future.
D
Explore effects of policies under fixed
conditions.
E
Identify policies that can create
conditions for success.
F
Identify policies that can meet specific
targets.
G
Identify policies that may influence the
future.
H
Identify policies and their implications.
Archetypes of Scenario Analysis for Policy
Purpose of
analysis
Question
Policy optimization
What policy variant is most effective, cost efficient,
fast, acceptable, etc.?
Advocacy, vision
building
What are positive futures we want to move toward?
What are negative changes we want to stay away from?
Strategic orientation
For what alternative worlds do we need to prepare
ourselves? What if our current assumptions were
wrong? What would be robust strategies?
From presentation by Jan Bakkes (MNP) at Consultative Scoping Workshop on
an Environment Outlook for Canada held on 1-2 March 2007 in Montreal.
Be Clear and Be Focused
UNEP’s 4th Global Environment Outlook
1. What are the likely future consequences for environment and human well being of
existing environment and environmentally relevant policies and actions?
2. What are the likely future consequences for environment and human well being of
environment and environmentally relevant policies and choices that may be taken in
the future?
3. What are the likely future environmental trends?
4. What are the likely consequences of the various policy options and choices for the
environment under various scenarios?
5. What are the likely impacts or effects of promising opportunities for policy
innovations on the interaction between environment and society?
6. How would the various policy and technology trade-offs between different
environmental challenges affect the interaction between environment and society
and what is the role of society and enterprises in helping to shape the environment in
the future?
Manitoba Hydro
1. Under plausible scenarios of climate change, how might MB Hydro need to adapt
its resource planning criteria and operational strategies to continue to meet its
corporate goals?
But Don’t Be Narrow
What Makes it Difficult to Think about the
Future in a Structured Fashion?
• Ignorance
Our understanding is limited
• Surprise
The unexpected and the novel
• Volition
Human choice matters
“Human beings are rarely passive witnesses of threatening situations.
Their responses to threats may be unwise, but they inevitably alter the
course of events and make mockery of any attempt to predict the future
from extrapolation of existing trends.”
René Dubos
Steps in a Scenario Methodology
Establishing the nature and scope of the scenarios (a)
Identifying and Selecting Stakeholders/Participants (b)
Identifying themes, targets, indicators, and potential policies (c)
Clarifying the Purpose and Structure of the Scenario Exercise
Identifying Driving Forces (d)
Selecting Critical Uncertainties (e)
Creating a Scenario Framework (f)
Laying the Foundation for the Scenarios
Elaborating the Scenario Narratives (g)
Exploring Policy (i)
Undertaking Quantitative Analysis (h)
Developing and Testing the Actual Scenarios
Communication & Outreach
Goals of Scenario Analysis
• Process
– Synthesis of lay and expert input
– Synthesis of participatory processes and desk studies
– Synthesis of qualitative narrative and quantitative underpinning
• Product(s)
–
–
–
–
–
Consistent
Coherent
Integrated
Thought-provoking
Compelling
• Outcome(s)
– More flexible mental maps
– Relevant insights
What Scenarios Can Be
A means for enhancing action-related domains
of discourse
Carlo Jaeger