Transcript Scenarios - tools for strategy

Scenarios
Tool for Strategy
Stuart Henshall
October 5, 2001
1
“Scenarios represent a revolutionary
idea — not getting the future right,
but changing the minds (thinking) of
management”
Pierre Wack, GBN, 1993
2
Can we predict the future?
•In What
is the emerging
context learning
for business
overmay
the
the knowledge
economy
faster
next
10 years?
be the
only competitive advantage!
• What skills and competencies will the future require?
• How do you devise a clear innovation strategy?
How do you speed up succcessful strategy
• Is your approach to market research failing new
generation
for your
clients?
product - service
breakthroughs?
• Are you effective at thinking forward, beyond
competitors - collaboratively?
• What questions should you really be asking?
3
What are Scenarios?
• Scenarios are devices for ordering one’s
perceptions about alternative environments in
which one’s decisions might be played out.
Their power comes from being focused.
• Effective scenarios are always “customized to
context”
4
Scenarios and Strategy
•
•
•
•
•
•
Great Scenarios
Planning
Strategy
Forecasting
Portfolio
Conversation
• Adaptive, no business
model works forever.
• Migration paths that
survive and thrive
• Broad applicability
• Understand and analyse
industry dynamics
• From positioning, to value,
process and design
• Simple to apply
5
“When new technologies
disrupt entire industries, the
worst thing you can do is stay
close to your customers”
Clayton Christensen
“Are you a specdriven prototype
culture or a
prototype-spec
driven culture?”
Not just technology
but the power of:
disruptive ideas
Michael Schrage
6
STEEP & outside-in thinking
•
•
•
•
•
Technology
Environmental
Economic
Social
Political
The Business in its
Environment
7
Systemic Thinking:
Events - Patterns - Structure
8
One-day to extended programs
• Environmental analysis to
robust strategies
• Entry point for Scenarios as
a tool
• Safeguard the future. longer
term risk assessment
• Cross functions / disciplines
• New perspectives /
innovation
BENEFITS:
• Learn new techniques
• Create new options
• Add to top line $
• Explore unconventional
ideas in a safe setting.
• Facing-up to uncertainty
• New avenues for learning /
better questions
9
Developing Scenarios
Focal issue
Key factors
 Environmental
forces
 Early indicators
 Scenario
logics
 Implications
and options
 Critical
uncertainties
 Scenarios
10
The Driving Forces
(In original order, with number of votes in parentheses
for degree of importance and uncertainty.)
Top ten items shown in bold
1. Regional growth and timing (12)
2. Information superhighway (20)
3. Adaptive, flexible, and symbiotic organization
(12)
4. Isolation vs. globalization (16)
5. Impact of technology on globalization (2)
6. Pervasive, accessible technology (0)
7. Scope and speed of change (7)
8. Retention and attraction of people (32)
9. Entrepreneurs within the organization (7)
10. Tribalism vs. globalism (2)
11. Ethics around biotech (social contract) (0)
12. Company definition (dilemma between
innovative materials and market opportunities) (0)
13. Serving customers with others involved (9)
14. New sources of value creation (12)
15. The continued relevance of "the American
way" (3)
16. Will "best of" teams work? (13)
17. Where will ideas come from? (7)
18. Reconstituting old ideas (0)
19. Changing demographics and attitudes
(population aging and new generations) (12)
20. Social/business dynamic tension (0)
21. Could something like mini-mills revolutionize
Me2? (4)
22. Energy discontinuity (7)
23. Work vs. leisure balance (8)
24. Telecommuting and working from home (2)
25. Relevance / dominance of silicones (11)
26. General Electric model (materials, capital,
services, infotech) (4)
27. Changing rules for competitive advantage
/ One billion people in China (13)
28. External threats and compliance (politics,
regulations, environment, activists) (3)
29. New forms of protest (0)
30. Markets vs. customers (2)
31. Materialism and individualism vs. social
concerns, communitarian values (0)
32. Technology and the mobility of people (0)
33. Feeling good about where you work (5)
34. Selling solutions and speed (1)
35. Wider range of competitors (9)
36. Getting from plans and ideas to actions and
results (0)
37. Access to capital / equity markets (27)
38. Global regulations (6)
39. Getting more cash out of old businesses (7)
40. "Generation Next" (26)
41. Commoditization of materials (6)
42. "Born to Flip" technology companies (0)
43. Shorter shelf life of competitive and strategic
advantages (5)
44. Trend towards immediate gratification (5)
45. Impact of bio-digital technologies (28)
46. Financial markets re-defining criteria for
"value" (4)
47. Tightening cost structure (12)
48. "Greening" of the environment (7)
49. What if speed isn't the issue? (0)
50. AIDS in Africa (1)
51. Challenges to intellectual property (0)
52. Future of China / democratic or not? (19)
53. What sources of competitive advantage have
the longest shelf life? (5)
54. Population trends: slow growth in developed
world, rapid growth in developing world (0)
55. Future of Russia (0)
56. Future of education (6)
57. Intergenerational transfer of wealth to Baby
Boomers in U.S. (0)
58. Haves and have-nots (7)
59. Future of global religion (4)
60. Integration of multiple business models at
the same time (22)
61. Improvements in life sciences, medical care,
longevity (11)
62. Ye Olde Lemonade Stand (the "four-Ps"
strategy at an early age) (0)
63. Attractiveness of enterprise for people,
customers, and communities (balancing work,
relationships, self, and community) (3)
64. Most successful companies influence outer
circles; shifting age of customers (create early
loyalty) (3)
65. Everything is free on the Internet (17)
66. Business model design more modular,
adaptive (5)
67. People learning about technology in
unconventional ways (e.g., gaming) (0)
68. How do we harness all of this interest in
technology that is so fragmented in its use and
development at the consumer level? (3)
69. Individual spirituality/create your own future (0)
70. Open source code / Linux movement (5)
71. Online privacy protection (e.g., for kids) (0)
72. War / national defense / space exploration (0)
73. "Always in touch" workers (wireless
technology and the disruption of leisure) (5)
74. The computer that does everything (e.g.,
doubles as a toaster) / digital appliances (5)
75. The pioneering spirit (4)
76. Increasing stress (0)
77. The power of the network (e.g., Napster) (11)
78. How will 10-year-olds compete? (0)
79. Individual marketing (1)
80. Alternative medicine "natural-natural?" (1)
81. How will global warming affect the creation
and use of silicons? (8)
82. Rate of competitive attack, esp. e-based (9)
83. Combinatorial chemistry: "Doing it nature's
way" (large-scale trial-and-error) (0)
84. Worldwide education trends (0)
85. Large and growing Latino population, with low
education levels (0)
86. Online education (0)
87. Global activism: "Big business is bad"
(Ralph Nader for President) (15)
88. "Generation Next" interest in technology (3)
89. Mass customization / targeting of "microsegments" (3)
Scenario “A Stretch Beyond”
Story Map / Timeline
Global
1. Untaxed
Internet
revenue major
concern
10. Euro court
says people to
rule Internet
Personal
3. 50 million people
rally globally against
government control
of Internet access
2. Napster
legal woes
turn filesharing to
new tools
14. Breakthrough to
produce key
materials by low-cost
biological routes
8. Apple launches
BG-15 with biomaterials casing
7. Implanted smart
vaccines gain
acceptance
6. Open Source
movement active
in solving
intellectual
property issue
18. CyberNotes
replace national
currencies
20. Affinity tribes
cluster to dominate
global trading
12. HSC, DCC, Intel,
IBM & Dell form
“for profit” virtual
community
16. Computers
go biological
11. Nano-monitors
combine with
“Digi-Docs” to solve
health problems
9. Open Source
bounties return
intellectual property
to originators
2000
Beginning
New ways of harnessing the Internet
proliferate while new forms of file-sharing
change rules for users and dataminers.
19. Governments
no longer
deemed useful
13. Developing word
profits from new
material banks
5. China declares
free Internet
access for all
citizens
4. New net
privacy
systems
proliferate
Industry
Example
15. New
simulations
consolidate play
and learning
21. The cyberself emerges
17. Hacker
invades the
brain!
2010
Middle
Bio-digital technology emerges in limited
applications; Open Source provides the new
operating code of conduct.
End
Real-time community clusters begin to
manage and frame programs for future;
governments become powerless.
Scenario “A Stretch Beyond”
Structural Underpinnings / Overview
Social betterment
increasingly
desirable outcome
Data aggregators
form real-time communities
interested in managing change
Commoditization
of materials sharply
reduces costs
Push technology
frontiers & curiosity
Tension grows between
government control &
personal choice
Populations
demand access;
efficient net mobilization
Summary Description
End State: 2010
The burgeoning bio-digital revolution evolves new
“virtual communities” as material costs plummet and IP
rules are radically changed. New forms of networking
enable consumer choice to tip whole systems. They use
their new-found info-power in real-time clusters that
constantly redefine boundaries, access, and
technology. Individual wants are invisibly mimicked and
negotiated by cyber-bodies. Government becomes
irrelevant.
Global consumers find new power and freedom in directing
their choices. However, having everything is now cooperative
in execution. A willingness to share your data is part of an
individual’s social contract with their affinity tribes and mentors.
In this world, highly complex systems integration enables realtime response to these communities of consumers, who use
their information-sharing capacity and financial resources to
continue pushing the frontiers of technology and knowledge.
There is a whole new connotation to the word “markets.”
Recent Rise in Uncertainty:
Challenge or opportunity over the next 10 years?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Terrorism
Global television
Tele-imersion
Neuroscience
Genetic disposition
Psychoactive drugs
Spiritual connectivity
Business and doing
good.
• Corporatization of the
commons - water to
patents
• China
• Global liquidity - long
boom?
• Rapid climate change
• Global connectivity real-time
• Singularity - the spike
14
Wild Cards:
global, disruptive, beyond control and rapid
•
•
•
•
•
•
Energy revolution
Global epidemic
Water scarcity
Nanotechnology
Artifical intelligence
ET contact
• scale of potentially
transformative events is
greater than ever
• explore, assess, novel
approaches - solutions
• remarkable people
15
• The scenario matrix
was generated
after
Napa
Welfare of Society
discussionCuisine
from a long
Government Tolerance
list of uncertainties.
Sustainable Development
• Reviewed in the
Socially Oriented
context ofof
the
focal
Suspicion
Science
issueEuropean
“revolutionary
Federal
meal
products”
Massification
Food
Events shape new government
involvement and protectionism leading
to new community networks
Continuation of a
strong Long Boom
Success of biotechnology and
gene mapping Economy
lead customization
• Determined
to individual extremes the Key
Factors
and
Silicon
Individual Liberty
Environmental
forces
SuperMeals
Self Expression
• TheEntrepreneuralism
critical forces; most
important, most
Values
Individualistic
Axis
uncertain
determined
Less Regulation
ourFreeway
matrix. Attitudes
American
Individualization
Fuel
Hard Times
Biotech-provoked biological
disasters stimulate consumer
responsibility promoting
environmental care
Prosperity
The Scenario Matrix
Food is seen as fuel in a
deflationary economy as a result
of faster-is-better and a lowest
cost mentality
Economic collapse
bust of some sort
Recession or Deflation?
Economic
Axis
16
In a Freeway Fuel world we consume to
keep going, lowest price is king.
Food is Fuel
“Smart” Consumers Rule
Trad. Retail Disappears
Industry Structure
•
Fragments
Meal times
•
••
Price Brands
metaFuel stop
mediaries
Skipped
Performance
Auctions
Priceline
e-bay.com
Networks
Keep you
going / moving
Functional
Health
•
Convenience
&
price
•
Networks
rule
Biotech
•
Economic
• Lowest cost efficiencies
networks rulepursued
•
Biotech
• Functional food
supply driven
you
Brands benefits keep
•
Personal
Agents
going
This is a world in ….
Hard Times
Individualistic
•
•
•
•
•
Deflationary Environment
Price driven
Internet auctions
Faster-is-better
Food is fuel
Economic
Axis
Values
Axis
Forces
at
Work
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Implications
E-Commerce /
Internet
Health and
Nutrition
•
17
N
S
G
F
Summary Forces at Work
Freeway Fuel
Federal Foods
Napa Cuisine
Silicon SuperMeals
Industry Structure
•
•
Fragments
Networks
•
•
Fragments
Decentralizes
•
•
Consolidates
Networks
•
•
Fragments
Networks
Biotech
•
Economic
efficiencies
pursued
Biotech
supply driven
Personal
Agents
Price Brands
metaFuel stop
mediaries
Skipped
Performance
metamediators
auctions
priceline.com
e-bay.com
Keep you
going /
moving
Functional
Health
•
Regulations
and standards
control biotech
Necessity
Driven
Local / trusted
Info Brands
•
•
No Ag Biotech
Consumers
block
developments
Bio-ethics
slows
Corporate
implementatio
Brands
n
Policy Brands
•
Genomic
driven
Prevention
and Life
Extension
drive
biotech's
Personal
grand plan
Brands
•
One to One
Natural
Solutions
Wellness
spiritual
Trusted
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Personalized
Individual
Once a day
Co-creation
accumins.com
geocities.com
tripod.com
Personalized
maintain me
repair me
enhancement
me
•
Brands
•
Meal times
•
••
E-Commerce /
Internet
Health and
Nutrition
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Safe Nutrition
Simple Foods
Fragmented
Portal driven
ISP
Yahoo etc.
Functional
health
Minimum
Daily
requirements
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
amazon.com
drugstore.com
peapod.com
Natural intune with
nature
Balanced
Nutrition
•
•
18
Lessons for shaping the future
Consumers
technical
• Policies
• Ingredient Supplies
• Public Voice
determine
• Associations
agenda
• Nutrition &
Goodness
•
Regulations
Standards
• Locally and Direct
Profit from someone
• Capability to own
else's standards
and distribute
information
•
•
Individual
Relationships
Size of Database
What elements will
Share of Consumer
the customer control
Intelligence
Genomic property
•
•
•
•
Cost Efficiency
Price Transparency
Share of Network
Produce
Product Efficacy
•
•
without
inventory?
19
Virtuous Circle - Robust Strategies
Consumers
technical
• Policies
• Ingredient Supplies
• Public Voice
determine
• Associations
agenda
• Nutrition &
Goodness
•
Regulations
Standards
• Locally and Direct
Profit from someone
• Capability to own
else's standards
and distribute
information
•
•
Individual
Relationships
Size of Database
What elements will
Share of Consumer
the customer control
Intelligence
Genomic property
•
•
•
•
Cost Efficiency
Price Transparency
Share of Network
Produce
Product Efficacy
•
•
without
inventory?
20
Leverage IC and Info resources
Consumers
technical
• Policies
• Ingredient Supplies
• Public Voice
determine
• Associations
agenda
• Nutrition &
Goodness
•
Regulations
Standards
• Locally and Direct
Profit from someone
• Capability to own
else's standards
and distribute
information
•
•
Individual
Relationships
Size of Database
What elements will
Share of Consumer
the customer control
Intelligence
Genomic property
•
•
•
•
Cost Efficiency
Price Transparency
Share of Network
Product Efficacy
•
•
21
Build Consumer Trust
Consumers
technical
• Policies
• Ingredient Supplies
• Public Voice
determine
• Associations
agenda
• Nutrition &
Goodness
•
•
•
Regulations
Standards
Locally and Direct
Capability to own
and distribute
information
•
•
Individual
Relationships
Size of Database
What elements will
Share of Consumer
the customer control
Intelligence
Genomic property
•
•
•
•
Cost Efficiency
Price Transparency
Share of Network
Product Efficacy
•
•
22
Proliferate Personal Networks
•
•
•
•
•
Policies
Ingredient Supplies
Public Voice
Associations
Nutrition &
Goodness
•
•
Individual
Relationships
Size of Database
What elements will
Share of Consumer
the customer control
Intelligence
Genomic property
•
Regulations
Standards
Locally and Direct
Capability to own
and distribute
information
•
•
•
•
Cost Efficiency
Price Transparency
Share of Network
Product Efficacy
•
•
•
•
23
Scanning from the future!
• Little signs of big
changes
• Think upstream
• Parking lots,
subscriptions, events
• Vectors of change
24
Learning loop
Old Assumptions
INTERNET
MAIN
DRIVER
Implications of the
Scenarios for the
Focal Issue
We cannot
bet on any
one business
model
Must be
flexible enough
to succeed in
multiple/changing
environment
Need robust
business model &
strategy—most
likely future is a
blend of the
3 scenarios.
Need to be able
to respond
Implications
•Sufficiently addressing
geo/political impact?
•Will business model
sufficiently incorporate
social impacts/scenario
thinking?
NEW BELIEF
PRETTY
SIMPLE AND
EXTENSION OF
THE PAST
Future
(with boundaries)
is Predictable
Research
Mini Basic
vs. E.O.S. Basic
Bio - W.R.T. si
Research/
Monitoring
Research
The Convergence
of Bio-tech &
Digital-tech
OLD
•Markets defined
by SIC codes
•Less pressing need
& importance of
geopolitical
terms
SOCIETAL
REACTION TO
TECHNOLOGICAL
STRESSES
GEO-POLITICAL
MONITORING
NEEDS TO
INCREASE
BE PRO-ACTIVE
VS. REACTIVE
PEOPLE
BEHAVIOR &
CULTURE
MAIN DRIVER
OLD
Future will be
faster trip
down
similar road.
ONE RECIPE
FOR
SUCCESS
There are no
bad scenarios, just
opportunities to
adjust & move
ahead.
NEED TO
GET OUT
OF OUR
HISTORICAL
PARAGDIGMS
THE GREEN
MOVEMENT
IS A
THREAT
SEVERAL “REAL”
POSSIBLITIES
SOLUTIONSPROBABLY
A MIXTURE OF
ALL OF THEM
MUST BE MORE
THOUGHTFUL
ABOUT THE
“UNDEVELOPED
WORLD”
Future is
multiple vectors
off past road,
several of which
we may want
to take quickly
Speed of Change
plus complexity of
inter-relationships
of factors taking
place in environment
NEW
•Business Potential
of “Markets of 1”
•Generation Next’s
broad implications
•Heightened appreciation
of geo-political
trends
Look for key
inflections points:
“Internet China”
“Biotech/Digital”
“Leaders of the
Green Movement”
REGULATIONS
& TECHNOLOGY
BACKLASHTECKNOLOGY
SOLUTIONS VS.
TECHNOLOGY
THREAT
Understand
more about
Bio & Digital
Markets
THERE IS NO
“BAD” AND IT IS
A LOT MORE
COMPLICATED
THAN WE THOUGHT
SEVERAL FUTURES
ARE POSSIBLE AND
PIECES CAN HAPPEN
SIMULTANEOUSLY
Monitor
China &
Eastern Europe
as proxies for
geo-expansion
“FUEL CELLS”
“Ethics of the
Bio Revolution”
“Government &
Political Trends”
•Open/Close
•Green/Black
•Tech/No Tech
Monitor
•Green W.R.T. chemicals
all materials
•Global trade openness
•Internet impact on
“Have-Have Not”
•Materials trends/
disruptive technologies
Monitor
•Recurring Scenarios
•Planning for predicting
trends
•Internet penetration
•Strategic monitoring of
geo-political trends
•(especially Asia)
New Beliefs
Prototyping:
Speed, Intuition & Community
26
What scenarios opportunities may
exist for you? Benefits?
27
What can we offer?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
One-day collaborative program
Executive development programs 3 to 5 days.
Templated facilitation tools
Scenario - Innovation development programs
Large-scale corporate change workshops
Learning journey design
Ideas connecting networks
28
Scenarios
Tool for Strategy
Stuart Henshall
October 5, 2001
29