Lawrie Phipps

Planning for complexity and change

Changing the learning landscape A brief introduction to Scenario Thinking • • Strategic planning tool used to make flexible long-term plans The method is based on creating a series of ‘different futures’ generated from a combination of known factors, such as demographics, with plausible alternative political, economic, social, technical, legal and environmental (PESTLE) trends which are key driving forces.

• Scoping the issue • Trends analysis • Building Scenarios • Creating options • Testing the options • Decisions

Scenario Process

• Scoping the issue • Trends analysis • Building Scenarios • Creating options • Testing the options • Decisions

Scenario Process

Pestle trends Issue

Scenario

Stage One

Context

• • • Blue ideas. Normal ideas, standard procedures – these don’t require a separate workshop/activity to come up with these Red ideas. Original, innovative but realistic in ambition Yellow ideas. Very creative and inventive but not yet feasible

Image – COCD Ideas Matrix

Generating Ideas

Stage Two

Scenario One New Service Scenario Three Scenario Two Scenario Four

Lawrie Phipps JISC Organisational Development & Transformations Programme [email protected]

@lawrie Lawrie-Phipps © HEFCE 2012

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