Transcript CLDP Day 1 Presentation - PPT - Change

Leadership and Planning
Bryan Hayday
Change-Ability Inc
Traditional Strategic &
Operational Planning Process
1. Ends
2. Environmental Scan
Stakeholders
External
Opportunities
& Threats
3. Priority Directions
4. Goals & Strategies
5. Operational Action Plan
6. Monitoring & Evaluation
Vision
Mission
Values
Strategic
Priority
Directions
Stakeholders
Internal
Strengths &
Weaknesses
Goals/
Strategies
Action
Plan
Evaluation: Successes & ongoing
Challenges
How do organizations plan during
periods of great uncertainty?
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Specify intentions (both shortand long-term)
Prepare reactions (mitigate risk,
explore opportunity)
Anticipate (readiness)
Adaptation (timeliness)
Vision (dream)
Organize ( to make sense and
order out of emerging patterns)
Strategy and Change in Practice
Intended
Strategy
Deliberate
Strategy
Performance
B
A
D
C
Unrealized
Strategy
Emergent
Strategy
What we intend through our plans,
Adapted from Henry Mintzberg,
The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning
What we actually implement,
The impact of what we implement, our intended and unintended
outcomes,
And the actions of the larger world around us – these together
bring art and humility to leadership.
STACEY MATRIX – Planning Implications
Far from
Agreement
Strategic
Close to
Agreement
Anarchy
Scenario Planning
Operational
Close to
Certainty
Strategic
Far From
Certainty
About Scenario Planning
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No organization can address everything that might be important for
its future
Predicting the long-term future is notoriously unreliable
Scenario planning helps with conditions of high importance and high
uncertainty
Examining diverse scenarios built around a common issue or
decision enables identification of robust (or repeating) elements
Scenario planning helps to filter opportunities, risks, culture creation
and key decisions
Enables focus in areas of ‘high leverage’
Use scenario planning as tool for exploration and readiness
 not adaptation (contingencies)
 not reaction (accommodation)
 not prediction and mid-term planning (strategic)
Why use Scenario Planning?
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Test viability of current strategy
Invigorate conventional strategic planning (exposing
untested assumptions and uncertainties)
Increase capacity to see change as opportunity
Create robust strategies that can work in a variety of
contexts or emergent futures
Develop sensitivity to recognize new drivers of change
and “signs” in environment as they unfold
Leading with less fear and more finely-tuned sense of
the possible
Co-create preferred futures, in the tension of external
adaptation, emergence and internal self-organizing
Starting Points
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We cannot predict the future
Where strategic planning is the right tool in
complicated times, scenario planning is
the preferred approach for complex times
Good decisions and robust strategies will
do well across several possible futures
Characteristics of Scenarios
Do not fall neatly into ‘good’ or ‘bad’
futures
 May seem more like caricatures than
predictions
 Help us think outside the proverbial box
 Help us ‘rehearse’ our decision-making
under the conditions of different but
plausible futures
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Developing Scenarios
 Identify
focal issue or decision
 List key forces in the local environment
 Determine driving forces
 Rank by importance and uncertainty
 Select scenario logics
 Flesh out the scenarios
 Consider implications and patterns that repeat
 Select leading (versus trailing) indicators
Sample Scenario 2by2 Matrix
“What kind of health system will Canada have in
2014?”
Scenario “A”
Emphasis on
“Personal”
Responsibility and
Accountability
Scenario “B”
Personally/
privately
financed
Scenario “D”
Publicly
financed
Scenario “C”
Emphasis on “Public”
Policy and
“Public” Responsibility
•Scenarios need memorable titles – Think headlines!
•The more diverse (yet plausible) the scenario stories, the
more robust are any strategic elements which repeat
across 3 or more scenarios
Discerning Robust Strategies
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Robust strategies are not tied to any one set of
circumstances or “future”
Robust strategies comprise the series of actions which
maintains organizational viability while keeping preferred
“ends” in sight
Highlights essential competencies or activities that are key
to organizational success or survival in a series of plausible
and vastly different futures
Robust strategies are based on key strategic elements “no
matter what happens”
Robust strategies lack the precision of strategic plans
because their use is tied to conditions of greater uncertainty
Important to refresh robust strategies by testing against any
major changes in the political, socio-demographic,
economic, environmental and technological domains