Transcript (CCIS) Project - Canadian Institute for Climate Studies
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project
A collaborative project sponsored by the Climate Change Action Fund
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
Project Aims
To encourage the use of a consistent set of climate change scenarios by the VIA research community in Canada
• • • •
By: providing basic national climate change scenarios developing a nationally-consistent framework within which sector- and region-specific climate change scenarios can be developed developing and maintaining a capacity to support climate impacts and adaptation research and assessments http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios involving the university research community and scenario users in the further development of climate change scenarios
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
Project conforms to IPCC-TGCIA recommendations: Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment (Download from: http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk) Current focus is on climate change scenario construction using GCM output:
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Warm start experiments
•
IS92a, and now SRES emissions scenarios
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GCMs which have been involved in model intercomparison exercises
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
IPCC-TGCIA Recommendation “Users should design and apply multiple scenarios in impacts assessments, where these scenarios span a range of possible future climates, rather than designing and applying a single ‘best guess’ scenario”
http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
Multiple Scenarios
25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 J F 4.0
80 3.5
70 3.0
60 2.5
50 M A M J J 1.5
30 A 20 Month 1.0
10 10 0.5
0 0 0.0
J J S J O F F F N M M M D A A A M M M J J J J J J Month Month A A A S S S O O O N N N D D D
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
• •
What’s available from CCIS...
Climate change scenarios
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for Canada and North America At original GCM resolution; (0.5
° latitude/longitude)
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Mean changes wrt 1961-1990 for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s; also monthly time series, anomaly time series
• •
Monthly, seasonal and annual values Climate variables, minimum data set: mean, minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, a radiation variable, a humidity variable, wind speed Advice on scenario construction, downscaling, applications, limitations and uncertainties
http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
• • • • • • •
Scenarios from ...
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis ( CGCM1, CGCM2 ) Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research ( HadCM2, HadCM3 ) Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation ( CSIROMk2b ) German Climate Research Centre ( ECHAM4 ) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL-R15, GFDL-R30 ) Japanese Centre for Climate Research Studies ( CCSR/NIES ) US National Centre for Atmospheric Research ( NCAR-PCM )
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
Available Scenarios
IS92a
• CGCM1, CGCM2 • HadCM2, HadCM3 • ECHAM4 • GFDL-R15 • CSIROMk2b • CCSR/NIES • NCAR-PCM
Total 26, + 4 means
SRES
• CGCM2 • HadCM3 • CSIROMk2b • ECHAM4 • CCSR/NIES • GFDL-R30 • NCAR-PCM
Total 29, + 3 means
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
What do you get?
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
How do you use this information?
Scenario for 2020s
6 5 4
Scenario for 2020s
3 2 1 0 J F M A M J J
M onth
A 35 30 25 S 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 O N D J F M A M J J A S O N
M onth Simplest method
: apply monthly or seasonal scenario changes from appropriate grid box to observed data (either daily, monthly or seasonal).
D
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
Results …
• A time series which has the same statistical characteristics as the observed data, but with the mean values perturbed by the scenario amount • You can produce synthetic weather data using a stochastic weather generator - statistical characteristics will be similar to observed, but day-to-day values will be different
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
Scenario Application
Present and Future Precipitation in British Columbia Kamloops A Douglas Lake Princeton A Sicamous Salmon Arm Kelowna A Penticton A Osoyoos PRISM: 1961-90 Normals
mm 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 250 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000
Kamloops A Douglas Lake Sicamous Salmon Arm
51.5
Kamloops A Sicamous Salmon Arm Princeton A 2020s
51.5
Douglas Lake Osoyoos
50
Kelowna A
51
Sicamous Salmon Arm
49.5
Princeton A Penticton A Kamloops A
50.5
49
Douglas Lake Osoyoos
50 -119 -120.5
-120
2050s
-119.5
49.5
Princeton A
-118.5
Kelowna A Penticton A 2080s Osoyoos
[Supplied by Bill Taylor, Environment Canada, Pacific and Yukon Region] 49 -120.5
-120 -119.5
-119 -118.5
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
Bioclimate Profiles
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
Scenario Tools
• Scatter plots to assist with scenario selection • Access to downscaling tools
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
Cooler, wetter
Scatter Plots
Warmer , wetter Cooler, drier Warmer, drier
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
LARS-WG: stochastic weather generator Access to SDSM and predictor variables for North America (soon global)
Downscaling Tools
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
What’s next for the CCIS Project?
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
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In Progress ...
Major revisions to web site content and development of additional tools
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Major updates to bioclimate profiles Predictor datasets for use with SDSM
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
What’s planned ...
• Interpretation of scenarios
– descriptive indices, such as degree days, a drought index …
• Scenarios of changes in climate variability and extremes; significance of scenario changes • Further work on downscaling
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
Scenario Significance
CGCM1 GAX: Winter precipitation change (%)
Climate Change versus Climate Variability
[Source: Nigel Arnell, in Hulme
et al
. (1999), Nature 397]
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
Significance of the Effect of Climate Change: Runoff
[Source: Nigel Arnell, in Hulme
et al
. (1999), Nature 397]
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada
GCMs and Extreme Events ‘Hot’ summer