Transcript Slide 1

Global Environmental Change
and Food Systems
Scenarios Research
up to date
Monika Zurek
FAO
April 2005
GECAFS – research focus
1. Classifying and characterizing the major food
systems existing today for GEC studies,
2. Investigating the vulnerability of existing food
systems to GEC and its consequences for different
parts of society,
3. Sketching plausible future changes in
environmental and socioeconomic conditions that
will affect food systems,
4. Based on the analysis of plausible futures,
devising decision support systems for the
formulation of diverse policy-instruments to adapt
global food system to GEC.
What are scenarios?
Scenarios =
Plausible alternative futures, each an example of what
might happen under particular assumptions, told as
stories and backed up by quantification and modeling
Different from
Projections are heavily dependent on assumptions
about drivers and boundary conditions. Projections lead
to "if this, then that" statements.
Predictions are seen by the public and decision makers
as things that will happen no matter what they do.
Forecast is the best estimate from a particular method,
model, or individual.
Anatomy of Scenarios
Boundaries
Key Dimensions
•Multi-dimensional
space of variables
•Spatial
•Thematic
•Temporal
Current Situation
•Historic context
•Institutional description
•Quantitative accounts
Driving Forces
•Trends
•Processes
Image of
the Future
Critical Uncertainties
•Resolution alters course of events
Plot
•Captures dynamics
•Communicates effectively
Source: P. Raskin 2002
Good Scenarios
‘Good‘ scenarios should
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be plausible (or ‘not implausible‘)
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be internally consistent and coherent
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be constructed with rigour, detail & creativity
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meet the goals of scenario exercise
Source: T. Henrichs 2003
A conceptual framework for the
GECAFS scenario exercise
Food Security
(availability,
accessibility/utilization,
stability)
?
Demand
Quality of services derived
from food system
Changes in the
socio-economic
environment
(demographics, econ.
dev., trade policies,
farm policies, etc.)
Food
Consumption
Food Systems
Food
Production & Supply
Drivers of GEC
?
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(demographics, econ. dev.,
socio-political dev., science &
technology, cultural dev., biophysical drivers)
?
Changes in physical &
biogeochemical
environment
(GEC)
Another framework
Global/regional storylines/visions
Drivers of resource use/behaviour
Demography, economic development, technology,
cultural, socio-political
Land use, Emissions, Pollution, Water
availability, soil degr. Climate, Sea level
Food system drivers
Governance
Producers
International/national/
regional policy, trade,
institutions
Land, technology, supply,
pests, mechanisation, labor,
Production
resource access, education
Availability
Res. & Dev.
Breeding, fertilization,
irrigation, new
technology, new
practices
Global environmental change
Consumers
Price, employment,
education, food preferences,
equity, demand, policy
Access
Food provision/
food security
Adaptation
Adapted food
provision/security
And an analytical framework
Indirect
Drivers
Direct Drivers
State of Food
System
Impact on food
security
Response
-Demography
GEC
Access
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-Economy
-Water
- affordability
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-Technology
-Climate
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-Cultural
-Institutional
Distribution
Other
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-Food policy
-Demand
Production
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Linking scenarios across scales
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Start from basic questions that project wants to be answered –
key uncertainties differ
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The storylines developed at one scale can be played out at
another scale.
The scenarios developed at a higher scale can be used as
boundary conditions for lower scale scenarios, which then
develop their own storyline.
The underlying assumptions and world views played out in
the scenarios developed at one level, can be applied to
developing scenarios at another level.
(Use no global scenarios at all – no links and map back)
-> leave flexibility!!!
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The scenarios developed at a higher scale can be used to
create scenarios about policy and management options
currently discussed at a lower scale.
Possible building blocks for the
GECAFS scenarios (1)
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Driving forces changing food systems,
GEC and their interactions
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Demographics
Economic development
Science and technology
Socio-political developments
Cultural drivers
Bio-physical drivers
Indicators of food security, food systems
Thresholds, irreversible trends in GEC and
ecological feed back loops
Possible building blocks for the
GECAFS scenarios (2)
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Existing scenario exercises
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Global scenarios that describe a wide range of
plausible futures
Global scenarios that focus on changes in GEC
Regional scenarios carried out in the GECAFS
areas
Results of the 1st GECAFS
scenarios workshop
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Define a set of generic, qualitative global
scenarios based on existing scenario
exercises and modeling efforts;
Build more detailed qualitative-quantitative
regional scenarios, based on the
GECAFS global scenarios, for the
GECAFS project regions which focus on
issues important to the region; and
Design an iterative process on how both
scenario processes can inform and update
each other.
Objectives for 2nd GECAFS scenarios
workshop
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Identify which global drivers included in
existing global scenarios are most relevant
to food systems
Determine which elements of existing
scenario storylines are most important for
GECAFS scenario building efforts
Establish four global scenarios for GECAFS
analyses
Develop and decide on options for linking
scenario exercises across scales and/or
develop multi-scale scenarios for GECAFS
Options for GECAFS process
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Scenarios of possible alternative baselines, build
on different paradigms about the future,
REGIONAL food system related policy void
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Handed down to regions
Feedback to global scenarios
Describe coping strategies at regional level, unless they
are really changing
Scenarios already show different outcomes of
interactions between GEC and food policy
responses -> interplay between actions and
outcomes
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More complete picture
Evaluation of different options