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Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS Goal Conceptual & Methodological Research • food systems • scenario To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of global environmental change on food systems and to assess the environmental and socio-economic consequences of adaptive responses aimed at improving food security. • vulnerability & adaptation • decision support Policy-Relevant Regional Research • GEC impacts, adaptation & feedbacks • targeting issues related to development needs Caribbean Current Food Systems Establish Agenda This goal will be achieved by improving understanding of the interactions between food systems and the Earth System's key socioeconomic and biogeophysical components. Assess Vulnerability (Involving Stakeholders, Research Community, etc.) Build Scenarios Main GEC Concerns • Increasing extreme events • Decreasing water availability • Increasing land degradation • Changes in sea currents & level Identify Adaptation • How will various adaptation options feedback on environmental and socioeconomic conditions? Key Policy Goals • Increasing and diversifying agricultural production • Limiting environmental degradation • Improving socioeconomic conditions • Reducing ag. labour migration Southern Africa GECAFS Aims • How can we adapt food systems to cope with global environmental change and improve food security? Main GEC Concerns • Increasing climate variability • Reduced glacier and snow melt • Decreased water availability & quality • Increasing GHG emissions Analyse Feedbacks Main GEC Concerns • Increased climate variability & ENSO • Climate mean values • Reduced water availability & quality • Increased land and veld degradation • Biodiversity loss Adapted Food Systems • How will global environmental change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions? Key Policy Goals • Increasing food security & selfsufficiency • Improving trade policies & competitiveness • Exporting more quality produce & processed products • Reducing poverty in rural communities Support DecisionMaking The research agenda is specifically targeted towards delivering the new science necessary to underpin policy formulation for improving food security in the face of global environmental change. GECAFS addresses three major questions of interest to science, development and society: Indo-Gangetic Plain Key Policy Goals • Enhanced food security & self-sufficiency • Strengthened regional integration & trade • Enhanced rural infrastructure & market access • Better disaster response & “safety nets” Example of Conceptual Research Output: Food Systems Research Example of Regional Research Output: Caribbean Scenarios Research GECAFS has developed an holistic food systems concept which includes both (i) Activities (producing food, food processing and packaging, food distribution and retailing, and consuming food); and (ii) Outcomes of these activities (which relate to food security, environment and social welfare). This integrated view of food systems provides a framework for investigating the complex interactions among food systems, GEC, and other “drivers”. Four prototype regional scenarios of GEC, social and political change have been developed for the Caribbean. These are based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, but downscaled and modified by regional teams of policy-makers and researchers. The GECAFS food systems framework (left) was used to explore the consequences of the four different “story lines” for food security outcomes in the region. Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food: natural resources, inputs, technology Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, consumer demand Distributing & retailing food: marketing, advertising, trade Consuming food: preparation, consumption Production ++ Food Safety Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to: • • • • • • • • Social Welfare Income Employment Wealth Social & political capital Human capital Infrastructure Peace Insurance Food Security FOOD UTILISATION • Nutritional Value • Social Value • Food Safety FOOD ACCESS • Affordability • Allocation • Preference FOOD AVAILABILITY _ Environmental Security / Natural Capital • Ecosystems stocks, flows • Ecosystem services • Access to natural capital • Production • Distribution • Exchange Source: Ericksen PJ (2006) Conceptualizing Food Systems for GEC Research Global Environmental Change (submitted) www.essp.org Social Value __ + 0 Decrease Increase GECAFS is developing a portfolio of conceptual and methodological research to answer these questions, closely linked to a set of regional projects. Global Caribbean Distribution Caribbean Order From Strength Inter-Regional Exchange Intra-Caribbean Exchange Nutritional Value Preference Affordability Caribbean TechnoGarden Caribbean Adapting Mosaic Allocation Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2. www.gecafs.org