Transcript Slide 1

Global Environmental Change and
Food Systems (GECAFS)
Caribbean Food System Project:
DSS Potential & Considerations
Slides 1 –19
Ranjit Singh & Adrian Trotman
Slides 19-25
Mike Brklacich
The Caribbean Region
Regional Characterisation
 Many small island states (apart from Guyana and
Belize)
 Diverse cultures, environments and food provision
systems
 Great dependence on food imports
 Reliance on export crops, tourism & other nonfood sectors (e.g. minerals) to provide revenue
 Susceptibility to weather extremes
 Susceptibility to changes in preferential export
markets
 Weak regional-level institutional connectivity
Major Sources of Foreign
Exchange:
 Agricultural exports
 Tourism
 Exception: Trinidad and Tobago where the
energy sector is dominant:
 Oil
 Gas (LNG)
 Methanol
 Ammonia
Caribbean Agricultural
Exports Dominated by
Traditional Commodities:
 Major: (sold under preferential market)
 Sugar
 Bananas
 Other: (sold under non-preferential market)
 Rice
 Coffee beans
 Cocoa beans
Caribbean Food Imports
Dominated By:
 Cereal:
wheat & corn
Food & livestock feed
 Oils:
soyabean and corn
 Meat Products
The Caribbean Region: A Net
Importer of Food
(US $ Billion)
1999
2000
CARICOM Imports
2.956
2.061
Exports
1.092
1.223
Caribbean Imports
3.350
Exports
1.947
Priority Policy Goals for CARICOM
 Food security
 Enhancing productivity and international
competitiveness in agriculture
 Food safety
 Rural employment
 Sustainability of the food/agricultural sector
and rural communities
Regional Response: Challenges
 Diversification challenges:
 Weak regional policy mechanisms
 Difficulty of achieving economics of scale
 Production characterized by small fragmented farms
 Sloping and hilly terrain limit mechanization and
labour-saving technology
 Market access/penetration constraints
 Shipping/handling costs
 Quality issues
 Lack of critical export volumes
Regional Response: Challenges
(Continued)
 Rapid conversion of best arable lands to
housing/built development
 Problem of losses from crop/livestock larceny
 Declining water resource availability
 Degradation of watersheds
 Weak R&D and Innovation Support
 Weak linkage of agrifood sector with tourism
Aspects of GEC of particular concern to
the Caribbean region
 Changing climate variability
 Changes in mean climate (including global
change)
 Changes in the frequency, intensity and tracking
of tropical cyclones and other extreme weather
events
 Sea level rise
 GEC and social impacts on land and water
resources and availability
Caribbean Food Systems Project
A Phased Approach
Phases
 Phase I: Identification of Policy Issues &
Research Qs (2001-2003)
 Phase II: Prototype Development & Demo (20032005)
 Phase III – Development & Application of
GECAFS-Carib DSS (2005+)
Phase I
Overarching GECAFS Questions
 Theme 1: How will GEC (especially land degradation,
variability in rainfall distribution, sea surface temperature,
tropical storms and sea-level rise) affect vulnerability of
food systems in the Caribbean?
 Theme 2: What combinations of policy and technical
diversification in food harvested and traded for local
consumption, in export commodities and in tourism would
best provide effective adaptation strategies?
 Theme 3: What would be the consequences of these
combinations on national and regional food provision, local
livelihoods and natural resource degradation?
Story lines developed for two spatial levels:
Local and Regional
STORY LINE 1: LOCAL LEVEL
STORY LINE 2: REGIONAL
LEVEL
 Target: Food systems in
resource-poor communities
based on fishing and locallyproduced food crops.
 Target: Caribbean regional food
provision.
 Aim: To reduce food system
vulnerability, especially in
relation to changes in climate
variability.
 Aim: To develop regional-level
strategies to reduce the
additional complications GEC
would bring to regional food
provision, given changing
preferential export markets.
GECAFS Questions
Local Level
 Theme 1 How would changes in climate variability and
water availability affect food systems of communities on
different islands?
 Theme 2 How would current national and regional policy
instruments (e.g. access to markets, insurance schemes,
EEZs) best be adjusted to enhance the effectiveness of
technical options for diversifying cropping systems and
fisheries so as to reduce vulnerability to GEC?
 Theme 3 To what extent would these strategies affect
food provision by altering the proportional reliance on local
vs. imported commodities, and how would changed land
management and associated changes in runoff affect
coastal fisheries and other aspects of coastal zone ecology
and tourism income based on this?
GECAFS Questions
Regional Level
 Theme 1 What additional factors would GEC bring to
destabilise the region’s food system, and in particular what
would be their impact on revenue generation from different
cash commodities?
 Theme 2 How could regional institutional changes best
be introduced to sustain regional food provision by
maximising diversification options and inter-island trade?
 Theme 3 How would changes in intra-regional trade, and
in policy and technical development at a regional level
affect development in individual islands, and how could
such changes be promoted to conserve the natural
resource base of the region?
Phase II
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A synthesis and assessment of stresses
on Food Systems (IAI SGPII Proposal)
Food system characterization
Development & demo of prototype
models/DSS
Next steps assessment
Consolidate links (regional scientists,
policy makers, GEC community)
A research proposal for follow-up activities
(Phase III).
SCHEMATIC FOR GECAFS CARIBBEAN PROJECT - PHASE II
----- Food System & Food Provision Case Study(s) ----Figure 1 Institutional factors that
affect Case Study “Food
ProvisionӠ
2
Characteristics of Case
Study “Food Systems”†
---------- National & Regional Studies ------------Current environmental
& socioeconomic
variability and trends
Characterisation of Case
Study Food Provision
Systems
3
Prototype Decision
Support Tools based on
current variability and
limited future scenarios
Inventory of relevant
national and regional
research (relative to
GECAFS goals)
Synthesis & Assessment of stresses on
Caribbean Food Systems
Overview and Country Reports
Prototype Models of Caribbean
Food Provision
(including Vulnerability &
Impacts, Adaptation, Feedbacks)
Assessment of
further information
needs
Phase III
Proposal
5
† As per GECAFS definitions
* Deliverable 1 can also contribute to IPCC etc.
1*
Deliverables
4
Possible Elements of
GECAFS-CARIB DSS ***
 “AT ALL STEPS”: Scientist – policy advisers
/makers – NGO – other stakeholder dialogue
 Analytical tools
 Data storage & mgt
 Report preparation tools
 Communication strategies
 Human resources
*** M Brk’s perspectives / reflections
Analytical Tools
 Resource availability estimators (land, water, climate,
energy, labor, …) -> Resource utilization/competition
models, GIS applications
 Crop/fish prodt’y functions
Primary products (crop/fish/l’stock yield…)
By-products (erosion, waste …)
 Food provision system vulnerability index (hot
spots…convergence of multiple stressors)
 Transport models (trade, runoff, …) -> GIS
 Trade-off assessment tools (progamming models (?)
to assess prodt’n, availability & accessibility)
Data Requirements
(flexible analytical units >> environ, political,???)
(at 2003, 2015, 2030 & 20XX)
 Resource (land, water, climate, energy,
labor, …) suitability & availability for ag/fish
 National & regional food demands
 Trade within region
 Regional imports/exports (ag, oil, tourism)
 Production co-effs (yield, income, land
degradation, ….)
 Commodity prices
Reporting Tools
<< policy maker dialogue re formats, timing, etc>>
 Unit of analysis reconfiguration tools
 Data summary (resource availability, ..)
 Input data & analytical output compression
tools
 Summary tables/displays
 Mapping & other illustrators
Communication Strategies
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Scientific output
Policy maker summary reports
Regular, routine releases & contacts
Media…multiple strategies
Human Resources
 Continuity & commitment
 Maintenance vs application