Transcript Slide 1

Global Environmental Change
and Food Systems (GECAFS)
Vulnerability Workshop
The Caribbean Food System:
Background, Socio-economic Issues
and Vulnerability to GEC
Ranjit Singh (UWI, Trinidad)
Adrian Trotman (CIMH, Barbados)
The Caribbean Region
Country Profile Table - CARICOM 2000
(Physical)
Country
Antigua & Barbuda
Barbados
Dominica
Grenada
Guyana
Jamaica*
St. Kitts & Nevis
St. Lucia
St. Vincent
Trinidad & Tobago
Population, Total
68,487
268,200
73,000
98,000
761,000
2, 600,000
41,000
156,000
115,000
1,300,000
* (figures available up to 1999)
Surface
Forest
Annual
area (sq.
area (sq. deforestation
km.)
km.)
(% of change)
440
N/A
N/A
430
N/A
N/A
750
460
0.8
340
50
0
215,000
168,800
0.3
10,990
N/A
N/A
360
40
0
620
90
4.3
390
60
1.5
5,130
2,590
0.8
Country Profile Table - CARICOM 2000
(Economic Indicators)
Country
GDP (current US
mn$)
Agriculture, Export of Goods Imports of goods
value added and services (% and services (%
(% of GDP)
of GDP)
of GDP)
Antigua & Barbuda
666.3
4
71.2
85.8
Barbados
2,600
6.3
50.7
56
Dominica
268.3
17.4
51.1
64.5
Grenada
406.6
7.8
58
74.8
Guyana
712.7
31.1
96.1
110.7
7.4
7
42
52
St. Kitts & Nevis
328.4
3.4
49.8
76
St. Lucia
707.1
7.9
55.7
65.5
337
10.8
52.9
60.1
7.7 BN
1.6
62.1
45.2
Jamaica*
St. Vincent
Trinidad & Tobago
*(figures available up to 1999)
Regional characterisation




Many small island states (apart from Guyana and Belize)
Diverse cultures, environments and food provision systems
Great dependence on food imports
Reliance on export crops, tourism & other non-food sectors
(e.g. minerals) to provide revenue
 Susceptibility to weather extremes
 Susceptibility to changes in preferential export markets
 Weak regional-level institutional connectivity
Major Sources of Foreign
Exchange:
 Agricultural exports
 Tourism
 Exception: Trinidad and Tobago where the
energy sector is dominant:
 Oil
 Gas (LNG)
 Methanol
 Ammonia
Caribbean Agricultural Exports
Dominated by Traditional
Commodities:
 Major: (sold under preferential market)
 Sugar
 Bananas
 Other: (sold under non-preferential
market)
 Rice
 Coffee beans
 Cocoa beans
The Caribbean Region: A Net
Importer of Food
(US $ Billion)
1999
2000
CARICOM Imports
2.956
2.061
Exports
1.092
1.223
Caribbean Imports
3.350
Exports
1.947
Caribbean Food Imports
Dominated By:
 Cereal:
wheat & corn
Food & livestock feed
 Oils:
soyabean and corn
 Meat Products
Market Liberalization: WTO 1995
 Removal of support for agriculture
 Lowering of tariffs on imports
 Dismantling of market preferences
under ACP/EU protocol
Impact of Liberalization: Banana
 Banana industry unable to compete at nonpreferential prices
 Decline in earnings:
– St. Lucia: (EC)$184 mn in 1992 to 43 mn in
2001
– Windward islands (group): EC$ 316 mn in 1992
to 102 mn in 2001
Impact of Liberalization: Sugar
 Preferential EU market includes:
 Protocol sugar
 SPS sugar
 Declining sugar prices: earnings from sugar export
have declined by 25% in the past 8 years
 Reduced quota: CARICOM exports of SPS have
declined by 15% each year since the introduction
of EBA
 SPS quota likely to be fully re-allocated to EBA
countries by 2009
Overall Impact
 Declining production
 Declining incomes
 Increasing levels of
poverty/unemployment
 Increasing incidence of malnutrition
Priority Policy Goals for CARICOM
 Food security
 Enhancing productivity and international
competitiveness in agriculture
 Food safety
 Rural employment
 Sustainability of the food/agricultural sector
and rural communities
Observational evidence indicates that
regional changes in climate have already
affected many physical and biological
systems
 Shrinkage of glaciers
 Thawing of permafrost
 Later freezing and earlier breakup of ice on rivers and
lakes
 Lengthening of mid to high latitude growing seasons
 Poleward and altitudinal shifts of plant and animal
ranges
 Declines of some plant and animal populations
 Earlier flowering of trees, emergence of insects and, egg
laying in birds
Aspects of GEC of particular concern to
the Caribbean region
 Changing climate variability
 Changes in mean climate (including global change)
 Changes in the frequency, intensity and tracking of
tropical cyclones and other extreme weather events
 Sea level rise
 GEC and social impacts on land and water resources
and availability
Vulnerability
 Increase in atmospheric temperature
– Global average surface temp. projected to warm 1.4-5.8 °C by
2100 relative to 1990
– Changes in crop responses
– Heat stress in livestock
– Greater change further poleward which may imply change in
markets, competition from what were existing or potential
markets
 Increased sea surface temperatures
– Damage to coral reefs
– Losses of current marine/fishing species
– Loss of tourist attraction (diving and snorkeling)
– Changing species (non-reef)
Vulnerability
 Tropical storms and hurricanes
– Increased frequency and intensities
– Greater infrastructural damage
– Losses of agricultural production
 Other severe systems
– Reports of greater intensities without necessarily an
increase in annual rainfall
– Flooding
– Runoff and erosion
Vulnerability
 Sea level rise
– Global average sea level projected to rise 0.09-0.88m by 2100
– Small islands with loss of significant land area, most
cities situated near sea ports
– In the case of Guyana loss of capital city of majority of
agriculture
– Salt water intrusion
– Destruction of beaches, losses to tourism
Vulnerability
 Drought
– Often associated with ENSO (in conjunction
with NAO) events
– Crop and livestock losses in states whose
agricultural production are mainly rainfed
– Agriculture water competing with domestic,
tourism and other industries
Temperature and Rainfall Trends since 1950
Petersen et. al 2001
Tropical Cyclones from 1900 to 2000
10-20 oN; 55-65 oW
H Burton, S Burton (CIMH)
20
15
10
5
5-Year Period Ending
00
20
90
19
80
19
70
19
60
19
50
19
40
19
30
19
20
19
10
19
00
0
19
No. of Cyclones
5-Year Running Totals
Annual Rainfall during ENSO and Non-ENSO years
H Burton, S Burton (CIMH)
Annual Average Rainfall
Grantley Adams Airport
1400
1197.3
1203.2
1229.8
1195.8
Overall
El Nino
El Nino+1
Non El Nino
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Wet Season Rainfall during ENSO and Non-ENSO years
H Burton, S Burton (CIMH)
Wet Season Average Rainfall
Grantley Adams Airport
800
700
759.0
760.7
760.9
758.6
Overall
El Nino
El Nino+1
Non El Nino
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Dry Season Rainfall during ENSO and Non-ENSO years
H Burton, S Burton (CIMH)
Dry Season Average Rainfall
Grantley Adams Airport
300
250.5
250
200
192.9
155.7
178.6
150
100
50
0
Overall
El Nino
El Nino+1
Non El Nino
10 Year Moving average of Rainfall from 1850s to 1990s
S Burton (CIMH)
Caribbean Food Systems Project
Overarching GECAFS Questions
 Theme 1: How will GEC (especially land degradation,
variability in rainfall distribution, sea surface temperature,
tropical storms and sea-level rise) affect vulnerability of
food systems in the Caribbean?
 Theme 2: What combinations of policy and technical
diversification in food harvested and traded for local
consumption, in export commodities and in tourism would
best provide effective adaptation strategies?
 Theme 3: What would be the consequences of these
combinations on national and regional food provision, local
livelihoods and natural resource degradation?
Story lines developed for two spatial levels:
Local and Regional
STORY LINE 1: LOCAL LEVEL
STORY LINE 2: REGIONAL
LEVEL
 Target: Food systems in
resource-poor communities
based on fishing and locallyproduced food crops.
 Target:
Caribbean regional
food provision.
 Aim: To reduce food system
vulnerability, especially in
relation to changes in climate
variability.
 Aim: To develop regional-level
strategies to reduce the
additional complications GEC
would bring to regional food
provision, given changing
preferential export markets.
GECAFS Questions
Local Level
 Theme 1 How would changes in climate variability and
water availability affect food systems of communities on
different islands?
 Theme 2 How would current national and regional policy
instruments (e.g. access to markets, insurance schemes,
EEZs) best be adjusted to enhance the effectiveness of
technical options for diversifying cropping systems and
fisheries so as to reduce vulnerability to GEC?
 Theme 3 To what extent would these strategies affect
food provision by altering the proportional reliance on local
vs. imported commodities, and how would changed land
management and associated changes in runoff affect
coastal fisheries and other aspects of coastal zone ecology
and tourism income based on this?
GECAFS Questions
Regional Level
 Theme 1 What additional factors would GEC bring to
destabilise the region’s food system, and in particular what
would be their impact on revenue generation from different
cash commodities?
 Theme 2 How could regional institutional changes best
be introduced to sustain regional food provision by
maximising diversification options and inter-island trade?
 Theme 3 How would changes in intra-regional trade, and
in policy and technical development at a regional level
affect development in individual islands, and how could
such changes be promoted to conserve the natural
resource base of the region?
Regional Response: Challenges
 Diversification challenges:
 Difficulty of achieving economics of scale
 Production characterized by small fragmented farms
 Sloping and hilly terrain limit mechanization and
labour-saving technology
 Market access/penetration constraints
 Shipping/handling costs
 Quality issues
 Lack of critical export volumes
Regional Response: Challenges
(Continued)
 Rapid conversion of best arable lands to
housing/built development
 Problem of losses from crop/livestock larceny
 Declining water resource availability
 Degradation of watersheds
 Weak R&D and Innovation Support
 Weak linkage of agrifood sector with tourism