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Global Environmental Change
and Food Systems
“GECAFS”
A Joint Project of IGBP, IHDP & WCRP
in Research Partnership with the
Consultative Group on International Agriculture Research (CGIAR)
and in Collaboration with WMO
Global Environmental Change Issues
Changes caused by human activities
Changes in:
Climate variability and extreme
events
Land use and cover
Water availability and quality
Nitrogen availability
Climate mean values
Atmospheric composition
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP)
A programme of the International Council for Science (ICSU)
8 Core Projects, 3 directly related to food systems
Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE) most relevant
to R-W system productivity
Agroecology and Production Systems (GCTE Focus 3)
International Human Dimensions Programme of
Global Environmental Change (IHDP)
A programme of the International Social Science Council
(ISSC)
General IHDP issues:
•
•
•
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How do human actions contribute to GEC?
Why are these actions taken?
How does GEC feedback into peoples’ lives?
What actions can be taken by whom to respond to, reduce and
mitigate GEC?
4 Core Projects, all directly relevant to R-W system
Land-Use and -Cover Change (LUCC, co-sponsored with IGBP)
Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (IDGEC)
Global Environmental Change and Human Security (GECHS)
Industrial Transformation (IT)
World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
A joint WMO-ICSU programme
5 International Science Projects
Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) most relevant to
the R-W system
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Describe and understand climate variability and predictability
on seasonal to centennial time-scales;
Identify the physical processes responsible, including
anthropogenic effects; and
Develop modelling and predictive capabilities where
practicable.
How they work:
• scientific research
• research capacity-building
• integration and synthesis
• international scientific networks
GECAFS interactions with Sponsoring Programmes
GECAFS
GECAFS Goal
To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of
Global Environmental Change on food provision
systems and to analyse the environmental and
socioeconomic consequences of adaptation.
Food Provision
Production =
f (yield, area)
Availability =
f (production, distribution)
Access
f (availability, socioeconomic potential [e.g.
=
affordability], & physiological potential
[e.g. nutritional quality])
Provision
=
f (production, availability, access)
GECAFS Fundamental Questions
1
Given changing demands for food, how will GEC
additionally affect food provision and vulnerability in
different regions and among different social groups?
2 How might different societies and different categories of
producers adapt their food systems to cope with GEC
against the background of changing demand?
3
What would be the environmental and socioeconomic
consequences of such adaptations?
GECAFS Science Themes
Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts: Effects of GEC on Food
Provision
Theme 2 Adaptations: GEC and Options for Enhancing Food
Provision
Theme 3 Feedbacks: Environmental and Socioeconomic
Consequences of Adapting Food Systems to GEC
Socioeconomic
Change
Theme 1
Vulnerability and
Impacts
Global
Environmental
Change
Theme 3
Environmental
Feedbacks
Theme 2
Adaptations
Adapted
Food Provision
Food Provision
Theme 3
Socioeconomic
Feedbacks
Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts:
Effects of Global Environmental Change on Food Provision
Overarching questions
In which regions and to what extent are food production and provision
potentially sensitive to GEC, and why?
How will anticipated changes in food production due to GEC influence
the availability and accessibility of food?
To what extent might anticipated changes in socioeconomic conditions
influence the impacts of GEC on food production potential?
Theme 2 Adaptations:
Global Environmental Change and Options for Enhancing
Food Provision
Overarching questions
How have food production systems coped with or adapted to
environmental variability and change in the past?
What types of GEC will exceed the thresholds and speed of adaptive
responses of current food production systems?
Are existing institutions capable of providing effective adaptation
options?
What are the future costs to food provision of delaying the
implementation of response strategies to GEC?
Theme 3 Feedbacks:
Environmental and Socioeconomic Consequences of
Adapting Food Systems
Overarching questions
How and to what extent will the environment be affected by
adapting food systems in response to both changing demands and
GEC?
What are the socio-economic consequences of these adaptations?
To what extent are management responses effective in mitigating
GEC and consistent with socioeconomic capacities?
Criteria for individual GECAFS projects
 Have a clear GEC dimension
 Include all 3 GECAFS Themes with a strong design for
“internal” integration
 Clearly identify, and demonstrate end-user involvement in all
stages
 Help develop policy at project level
 Include capacity development
Implementation possibilities for individual projects
1
2
Initiate new research projects
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little existing research addressing the interdisciplinary
nature of this project;
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the spatial and interdisciplinary scales of the required
analyses will best be “tailor-made” to address particular
interests of scientists, policy makers and donors.
Identify, build upon and add value to suitable ongoing
research (e.g. CLIMAG South Asia).
Scientific framework
The scientific framework will be provided by IGBP, IHDP and
WCRP building on their respective strengths of:
 internationally-agreed science agendas which specifically
include “impacts”, “adaptation” and “feedbacks” research
 well-developed coordination and synthesis mechanisms
and will be further developed by consolidating links between the
Global Change science community and research organisations
working on agricultural, policy formulation and development
issues.
Strategic alliances
Need to be established from an early stage with:
 National and international research bodies, e.g. national
academies and research centres; and the CGIAR and science
bodies within ICSU
 Assessment agencies and groups, e.g. WRI, MA
 International agencies, e.g. FAO, WMO, World Bank
 National and international donor agencies and other
potential investors
GECAFS interactions with Sponsoring Programmes
and with example collaborations
NARS &
CGIAR
GECAFS
FAO
IIASA
WMO
WRI
Rice-Wheat & Climate Variability research questions
related to GECAFS Themes
Based on discussions with the Rice-Wheat Consortium of the IGP
 What are potential production losses across the region due to
increased climate variability and consequent changes in planting date
and other management aspects? [cf. GECAFS Theme 1]
 What are the strategies that will improve the system productivity and
sustainability, thereby improving food security? [GECAFS Theme 2]
 How would these strategies need to be adjusted in response to
changing climate variability? [GECAFS Theme 2]
 What will be the consequences of these strategies for environment
and local livelihoods? [GECAFS Theme 3]
Example “new” areas of interdisciplinary science
•
Methodologies to address regional- and sub-regional issues by: (i)
aggregating small-scale food systems; and (ii) disaggregating
global-scale scenarios and datasets.
•
Methodologies for policy analysis of environmental and
socioeconomic tradeoffs in food systems.
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Use of past records of societal adaptations to biophysical changes
to provide inputs to scenario-based models of the future.
•
New analysis and insights into the institutional factors that can
reduce societal vulnerability to GEC.
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Developing vulnerability indices and comprehensive scenarios of
future conditions.
•
Analysis of changing human wealth and food preferences and
interactions with biophysical models of GEC to produce new
insights of regions where food provision may be sensitive to GEC.
GECAFS-RWC Project on the
Rice-Wheat Rotational Food System
• Initial “Issue Identification” w/s (March 2002, Delhi)
Dialogue within the GECAFS framework between national policy
makers and GECAFS scientists to establish research priorities
• Research Planning w/s (September 2002, Delhi)
Detailed GECAFS research strategy planning to establish:
scientific objectives
collaborators, esp. links to CGIAR CC Challenge Program
funding needs and mechanisms
how to maintain dialogue with the policy community
• Research Implementation Phase (3 - 5 yrs)
GECAFS “Distinguishing Features”
• A robust framework for novel, interdisciplinary approaches to
GEC research that examines vulnerability to impacts,
adaptations and feedbacks.
• A problem-oriented approach which can bring together the
GEC and Development agendas, and their donor communities.
• A methodology which allows an analysis of trade-offs between
managing resources for food provision and environmental
concerns.
• A design for analyses at regional and sub-regional levels but
which is globally-applicable in concept.
Socioeconomic
Change
Theme 1
Vulnerability and
Impacts
Global
Environmental
Change
Theme 3
Environmental
Feedbacks
Theme 2
Adaptations
Adapted
Food Provision
Food Provision
Theme 3
Socioeconomic
Feedbacks
Research areas of potential mutual interest to RWC, GECAFS and
the CGIAR Challenge Program on Climate Change
 assessment of vulnerability
 policy needs and responses
 institutional analysis
 pest risk assessment and pest management
 abiotic stress
 germplasm and production system development
 systems analysis
 G x E x M data management and GIS
 water resources
 carbon management
 evaluation of environmental and socioeconomic consequences and tradeoffs