Transcript Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECAFS) Polly Ericksen GECAFS IPO, University of Oxford.

Global Environmental Change
and Food Systems
(GECAFS)
Polly Ericksen
GECAFS IPO, University of Oxford
Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical
and economic access to sufficient, safe, and
nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food
preferences for an active and healthy life.
(World Food Summit 1996)
... is underpinned by Food Systems.
Food Systems comprise
Activities and Outcomes
Food System ACTIVITIES
Producing food: natural resources, inputs, technology
Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, consumer demand
Distributing & retailing food: marketing, advertising, trade
Consuming food: preparation, consumption
Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:
•
•
•
•
•
Social Welfare
Income
Employment
Wealth
Social & political
capital
Human capital
Food Security
FOOD
UTILISATION
• Nutritional Value
• Social Value
• Food Safety
FOOD
ACCESS
• Affordability
• Allocation
• Preference
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
• Production
• Distribution
• Exchange
Ericksen, P. 2008.
Global Environmental Change 18
Environmental
Security /
Natural Capital
• Ecosystems
stocks, flows
• Ecosystem
services
• Access to
natural capital
Using the Food Systems
framework – (hypothetical example)
Elements of
ACCESS to food
Affordability
Characteristics of
food security
element
Staple grains are
cheap if imported;
expensive if local.
Major
determinants
Driver of
determinants
Costs of local
production higher
than external.
Income determines
purchased quantity.
Food System
activity: Producing.
Social welfare:
income.
Allocation
Most food only
available in
supermarkets.
Supermarket chains Food System
dominate in urban activity: Retailing.
areas; local markets
have been driven
out of business.
Preference
Fish and rice are
traditional foods.
Cultural
preferences; agroecosystem
characteristics.
Social welfare:
Social capital.
Ecosystem services.
Vulnerability of the Food System to GEC
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE (GEC)
Change in type, frequency &
magnitude of environmental
threats
Capacity
to cope
with, and
adapt to,
GEC
FOOD SYSTEM
RESILIENCE / VULNERABILITY
Exposure
to GEC
SOCIETAL CHANGE
Change in institutions,
resource accessibility,
economic conditions, etc.
(Source: adapted from Ingram & Brklacich, 2002; Ericksen, 2008)
Vulnerability of the food system to GEC
is mediated by coping capacity
Example: Nutritional diversity (milk) in the Indo-Gangetic Plain
Milk production is sensitive to drought (it decreases)
Food security outcome
Weak coping capacity
Rural areas:
• weak markets
• poor infrastructure
• low income
• poor storage or processing
HIGH vulnerability
• access to milk decreases
• nutritional value decreases
Strong coping capacity
Urban areas:
• robust markets
• sufficient infrastructure
• higher income
• good storage and processing
LOW vulnerability
• access to milk maintained
• nutritional value maintained
Source: Multi-authored analysis of IGP food system vulnerability to GEC. GECAFS Report. In prep.
Adaptation to GEC
• Is aimed at reducing the vulnerability of
food systems to stresses
• Requires adaptive capacity of individual
actors and…
• An enabling institutional and policy
environment
Adaptation to reduce vulnerability of
food system outcomes
Food Security
determinant
Nutritional
value
[Utilisation]
e.g. Main
protein
(pulses)
Affordability
[Access]
e.g.
Household
incomes
Production
[Availability]
e.g. Irrigation
potential in
Haryana
GEC Stress to
which
determinant
will be
increasingly
exposed
Sensitivity to
stress (future)
Adaptation
options
Adaptive
capacity
Future
vulnerability
OUTCOMES
ACTORS
ACTIVITIES
R
E
S
E
A
R
C
H
E
R
S
STATE
PRODUCING
PRIVATE
SECTOR
NGO/ CIVIL
SOCIETY
RESOURCE
MANAGERS
(FARMERS)
PROCESSING &
PACKAGING
DISTRIBUTING &
RETAILING
CONSUMING
ACCESS
-Affordability
-Allocation
-Preference
AVAILABILITY
-Production
-Distribution
-Exchange
UTILIZATION
-Nutritional Value
-Social Value
-Food Safety
Environment
Social Welfare
Analysing Food Systems
in context of drivers and feedbacks
Environmental feedbacks
e.g. water quality, GHGs
Food System ACTIVITIES
GEC DRIVERS
Changes in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric
Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability & quality,
Nutrient availability & cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea currents
& salinity, Sea level
Producing
Processing & Packaging
Distributing & Retailing
Consuming
‘Natural’
DRIVERS
e.g. Volcanoes
Solar cycles
Food System OUTCOMES
DRIVERS’
Interactions
Socioeconomic
DRIVERS
Changes in:
Demographics, Economics,
Socio-political context,
Cultural context
Science & Technology
Contributing to: Food Security, Environmental
Security, and other Societal Interests
Food
Utilisation
Social
Welfare
Food
Access
Food
Availability
Environ
Welfare
Socioeconomic feedbacks
e.g. livelihoods, social cohesion
Source: Zurek, M. & Ericksen, P. A Conceptual Framework Describing Food System – GEC Interactions. In prep.
Adaptation involves tradeoffs
Improved
Environmental
Benefits
Improved
Social
Benefits
Current food systems
Improved
Food Security
Adapted food systems
GECAFS
“Fundamental Questions”
• How will GEC affect the
vulnerability of food systems
in different regions?
• How might food systems be
adapted to cope with GEC so
as to enhance food security?
• What would be the
consequences of adaptation
options for environmental and
socioeconomic conditions?
Env & Socioeconomic
Conditions
Vulnerability &
Impacts
Feedbacks
Current
Food Systems
Adapted
Food Systems
Adaptation
“It depends…”
where, by when, by how much, how fast, … => Regional research
GECAFS Regional Science Plan &
Implementation Strategy
 Policy-relevant research at
national and regional-levels
 Focus on
vulnerability/impacts,
adaptation and feedbacks
 Based on improved
conceptual understanding
and methods
 Innovative research
partnerships
GECAFS IGP Study Districts
capture trends in socioeconomic &
biophysical conditions across the IGP
Gujarat, Punjab
Pakistan
Rohini Basin, Terai
Nepal
• wheat
• high ag inputs & effective institutions
• variable water availability
• changes in snow/glacier melt
• rising GHG emissions
• rice/wheat
• out-migration of labour
• seasonal flooding
• variable water availability
Ludhiana, Punjab
India
• rice/wheat
• stagnant productivity growth
• high ag inputs & effective institutions
• variable water availability
• groundwater depletion
• changes in snow/glacier melt
• rising GHG emissions
Vaishali, Bihar
India
• rice
• low infrastructure & investment
• low income levels
• out migration of labour
• little government policy support
• seasonal flooding
• variable water availability
Greater Faridpur
Bangladesh
• rice
• low income levels
• institutions failing
• drought
• seasonal flooding
• sea level & salt water intrusion