Transcript GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND FOOD PROVISION …

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
AND FOOD PROVISION IN SOUTHERN
AFRICA
• Explorations for a possible GECAFS research project
in southern Africa
• Team members: Martin Muchero, Pauline Dube and
Jaap Arntzen
GECAFS Research questions
•
How might the projected climate change stresses further affect
the food systems of Southern Africa; who and which place will
be most vulnerable to these changes?
• What are the other key determinants of short and long-term food
provision that needs to be addressed simultaneously with GEC?
• What measures can be put in place to minimise impacts of GEC
and or take advantage of positive trends that may arise from
these changes?
• What is likely to be the short and long-term feedback from
measures adopted specifically to avert negative impacts or take
advantage of changes in climate patterns?
Work programme
• Identify potential stakeholders and data sources;
• Solicit research needs from policy makers and
scientists in southern Africa;
• Outline key research issues for potential GECAFS
Southern Africa project
Methods used
•
•
•
•
Interviews
Literature review
Review of statistics
Review of info on GEC and southern Africa
Report structure
• Classification of food systems and trends in food
provision
• Main socioeconomic and physical features of
southern Africa
• Main regional policy and research initiatives
• Identification of research topics for three GECAFS
themes
Food resources and provision
• Food provision is about ensuring that people take in
sufficient variety of substances to maintain life and
growth.
• Range of food resources, including cereals and other
conventionally cultivated crops, vegetables, fruits and
edible oils, Meat, milk and dairy products, fishery
products; and other (non-conventional) products
collected from the natural environment or cultivated.
Food systems
• Food production systems determined by:
– Type of food produced
– Method of production
– Production strategy
• Classification: see table 1.
• Food availability determined by production, transport,
distribution and storage capacity
• Food accessibility determined by availability and income
generation, distribution and pricing.
Regional trends in food provision
•
•
•
•
•
Declining p. c. food production
Under-utilisation of agricultural land resources
Small size of irrigated food production
Declining p.c. food consumption
Maize is most important cereal. Sorghum and millet
confined to driest areas.
• Difference between comparative advantage for crops
and actual crops grown
• Government support has stimulated maize production
Food trends continued
• Livestock production mostly in South Africa, Tanzania
and countries such as Botswana and Namibia
• Sufficient grain storage capacity for regional
production
• Transport and communication networks are poor
GEC and food production in southern
Africa
• Changes in production potential of maize and certain
trees.
• Negative and positive impacts on food production
and provision (south --; north +)
• Lower rangeland productivity in southern parts
• A decrease in rangeland quality in southern Africa
• Changes in water cycle and availability in
combination with growing water competition
• Growing poverty in affected areas, restricting
adaptive capacity
Development-environment challenges
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Reducing poverty and hunger
Accelerate economic and agricultural growth
Increased access to drinking water and sanitation;
Political and economic stability
Regional integration and specialisation
Improved natural resource management
More productive use of natural resources
Regional specialisation based on comparative natural
advantages
• Water scarcity
• International-regional commitments
GECAFS challenge in southern Africa
• Southern Africa is unique for GECAFS as food
insecurity is a growing problem in southern Africa,
and for many countries within the region.
• Existing regional efforts on food provision are mostly
short-term oriented, aiming to revive agricultural
growth and development.
Research issues for theme 1
• Integrating long-term GEC concerns and impacts in the shortterm struggle to improve food provision
• Detailed assessment of GEC on the major food products and
transport and distribution systems
• Establishing an inventory of traditional knowledge on past GEC
and vulnerabilities experienced then
•
•
•
•
•
Vulnerability assessment (areas, groups, products)
Shifts in production belts of crops and animals
Potential for new income-generating products
Changes in water availability and requirements
Identification of areas with enhanced and reduced food
production potential and linking these systems
Research issues for theme 2
• Identify and evaluate the possible adaptations
mechanisms;
• Identify and learn from past and current coping
mechanisms employed by vulnerable groups in their
day-to-day food supply systems
• Analyse and strengthen the capability of communities
and countries to adapt as much as possible
• Identify the most suitable level at which each
adaptation should be carried out.
Research issues theme 2 continued
• Data generation and dissemination:
– Monitoring and early warning systems (climate, local
production, regional and global markets);
– Focused information on adaptation options available
including research on alternative crops or livestock species;
– Vulnerability assessments (areas, groups);
– Dissemination of information-data
• Wide range of agricultural and non-agricultural
adaptations
– .
Research issues theme 3
• Possible environmental impacts of adaptations
include:
– Changes in biodiversity due to GMO and
extending the agricultural frontier
– Agricultural pollution associated with use of
fertiliser and pesticides
– Water logging and salination due to irrigation
– Land degradation due to agricultural pressure and
use of less suitable land
– Increase water scarcity due to irrigation.
Research issues Theme 3 continued
• Development impacts include:
– Extra costs of agricultural production due to GEC
– Changes in consumer patterns and loss of economic access for
those engaged in food production/processing
– Extra costs of food imports
– Mobilisation of international funds for mitigation/ adaptation
measures
– Future of food aid
– Over-exploitation of resources
– Intense competition for resources in favoured regions in response
to developed intra-regional trade
Proposed GECAFS projects in
southern Africa
• Three interlinked projects
• Project 1: in southwest/central part of southern Africa where
production potential is adversely affected by GEC.
– Research issues:
• GEC impact on food production and livelihoods;
• Adaptation mechanisms and their impacts
• Project 2: located in north-western parts with an enhanced
production potential
– Research issues:
• Expected positive impact on food production
• Shifts in crop and animal production belts
Proposed GECAFS projects in
southern Africa
• The projects would be linked by transport, trade and
policy issues, including regional integration and
specialisation (project 3).
• Project 3: Regional agricultural trade
– Location: region-wide (SADC)
– Research issues:
•
•
•
•
Regional transport and food distribution networks
Regional food security and reserves
Policies and governance
Regional specialisation, integration and trade