Transcript txsdc.utsa.edu

Texas Demographic Characteristics,
Trends, and Projections
Heart of North Texas
Business Conference
November 7, 2014
Hurst, Texas
Topic Overview
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Texas is experiencing relatively constant population growth.
This growth is not evenly distributed geographically.
This growth is not evenly distributed racially/ethnically.
The future Texas workforce will be largely Hispanic.
Texas is a national and international economic powerhouse
Hispanics tend to have lower levels of educational attainment
than other groups.
• A well-educated labor force can bolster a diverse economy,
making it more resilient to economic downturns.
Total Population and Components of
Population Change in Texas, 1950-2013
Year*
Population
Numeric
Change
--
Annual
Percent
Change
1950
7,711,194
--
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
2.4
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
1.7
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
2.7
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
2.0
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
2.3
2010
25,145,561
4,293,741
2.1
2012
26,060,796
915,235
1.8
2013
26,448,193
387,397
1.4
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for
July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates
Texas Population 1950-2010
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
1950
1960
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Components of Population Change by
Percent in Texas, 1950-2010
2000-2010
1990-2000
53.7%
49.7%
1980-1990
1970-1980
1960-1970
1950-1960
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
46.3%
50.3%
65.9%
41.5%
34.1%
58.5%
86.7%
89.5%
Natural Increase
13.3%
10.5%
Migration
One third of the top 40 fastest growing counties
in the United States are in Texas, 2012 to 2013
U.S.
Rank
5
9
10
11
13
22
23
25
28
32
35
39
Geography
Kendall County, Texas
Fort Bend County, Texas
Hays County, Texas
Andrews County, Texas
Dimmit County, Texas
Comal County, Texas
Ector County, Texas
Ward County, Texas
Williamson County, Texas
Montgomery County, Texas
Denton County, Texas
Gaines County, Texas
Population Estimate
2012
35,968
625,853
169,013
16,137
10,481
114,590
144,609
10,887
456,359
484,790
708,050
18,393
2013
37,766
652,365
176,026
16,799
10,897
118,480
149,378
11,244
471,014
499,137
728,799
18,921
Counties in bold had growth associated with oil and gas extraction.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates
Change, 2012 to 2013
Number
1,798
26,512
7,013
662
416
3,890
4,769
357
14,655
14,347
20,749
528
Percent
5.0
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
One fourth of U.S. counties in the top 40 for
numeric growth are in Texas, 2012-2013
U.S.
Rank
Geography
Population Estimate
Change, 2012 to 2013
2013
4,336,853
Number
82,890
Percent
1.9
1
Harris County, Texas
2012
4,253,963
6
Bexar County, Texas
1,785,787
1,817,610
31,823
1.8
8
Tarrant County, Texas
1,881,445
1,911,541
30,096
1.6
11
Fort Bend County, Texas
625,853
652,365
26,512
4.2
12
Dallas County, Texas
2,453,907
2,480,331
26,424
1.1
15
Travis County, Texas
1,096,246
1,120,954
24,708
2.3
22
Denton County, Texas
708,050
728,799
20,749
2.9
24
33
35
Collin County, Texas
Williamson County, Texas
Montgomery County, Texas
834,674
456,359
484,790
854,778
471,014
499,137
20,104
14,655
14,347
2.4
3.2
3.0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates
Total Estimated Population by County,
Texas, 2013
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
POPESTIMATE2013
95-,10,000
10,001-50,000
Dallam
Lipscomb
Hansford
Sherman
Ochiltree
Hartley
Moore
Roberts
Hutchinson
Hemphill
Oldham
Potter Carson
Deaf
Smith
Armstrong
Randall
Parmer Castro
50,001-100,000
100,000-500,000
Gray Wheeler
Collingsworth
Donley
Briscoe
Swisher
Hall Childress
Hardeman
Wilbarger
Wichita
Foard
Clay
Hockley
Lamar
Lubbock
Crosby Dickens King Knox Baylor Archer
Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin
Cochran
Bailey Lamb
Hale
Floyd Motley Cottle
Bowie
Titus
Franklin
Morris Cass
Camp
Stephens
Rockwall Rains
Palo Parker Tarrant
Wood Upshur Marion
Dallas
Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher
Shackelford
Pinto
Van
Jones
Gregg Harrison
Kaufman Zandt
Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis
Smith
Nolan Taylor Callahan
Andrews Martin Howard
Somervell
Henderson
Rusk Panola
Mitchell
Navarro
Cherokee
Hill
Comanche
Coke Runnels
Bosque
Glasscock
Loving Winkler Ector
Anderson
Shelby
Sterling
Coleman Brown
Midland
Hamilton
Freestone
Nacogdoches
Culberson
Tom
Limestone
Ward Crane
Mills
San Sabine
Coryell
McLennan
Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho
Reeves
Leon Houston
Augustine
Falls
McCulloch San Lampasas
Jasper
Trinity
Bell
Saba
Robertson Madison
Newton
Schleicher Menard
Burnet
Crockett
Polk Tyler
Jeff
Milam
Pecos
Walker
Mason Llano
San
Brazos
Williamson
Davis
Kimble
Burleson Grimes
Jacinto
Sutton
Blanco
Gillespie
Hardin
Travis
Lee
Montgomery
Washington
Orange
Terrell
Bastrop
Kerr
Hays
Liberty
Presidio
Edwards
Val
Kendall
Waller
Fayette
Jefferson
Real
Harris
Brewster
Verde
Comal Caldwell
Bandera
Austin
Chambers
Guadalupe
Fort
Colorado
Bexar
Bend
Galveston
Gonzales
Lavaca
Kinney Uvalde Medina
Wharton
Wilson
Brazoria
DeWitt
Jackson
Maverick Zavala
Frio Atascosa Karnes
Victoria
Matagorda
Goliad
Calhoun
Live Bee
Dimmit
La Salle
Refugio
Oak
McMullen
San Aransas
Patricio
Jim
Webb
Nueces
Duval Wells
500,001-1,000,000
Yoakum Terry
Lynn Garza
Stonewall
Throckmorton
Jack
Kent
Young
Haskell
Wise Denton Collin
1,000,001-4,400,000
El Paso
Hudspeth
Red
River
Kleberg
Jim
Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy
Starr
Willacy
Hidalgo
Cameron
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates
Delta
Hunt
Estimated Numeric Population Change by
Legend
County, Texas, 2010 to 2013
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
Nch1013
-800-0
1-1,000
Dallam
Lipscomb
Hansford
Sherman
Ochiltree
Hartley
Moore
Roberts
Hutchinson
Hemphill
Oldham
Potter Carson
Deaf
Smith
Armstrong
Randall
Parmer Castro
99 counties lost population over the
three year period.
Gray Wheeler
Collingsworth
Donley
Briscoe
Swisher
Hall Childress
Hardeman
Wilbarger
Wichita
Foard
Clay
Hockley
Lamar Red
Lubbock
Baylor
Dickens
King
Knox
Archer
Crosby
Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin
Cochran
River
Bowie
Stonewall
Throckmorton
Jack Wise Denton
Delta
Titus
Collin
Garza
Kent
Lynn
Young
Yoakum Terry
Haskell
Hunt
Franklin
Morris Cass
Camp
Stephens
Rockwall Rains
Palo Parker Tarrant
Wood Upshur Marion
Dallas
Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher
Shackelford
Pinto
Van
Jones
Gregg Harrison
Kaufman Zandt
Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis
Smith
Nolan Taylor Callahan
Andrews Martin Howard
Somervell
Henderson
Rusk Panola
Mitchell
Navarro
Cherokee
Hill
Comanche
Coke Runnels
Bosque
Glasscock
Loving Winkler Ector
Anderson
Shelby
Sterling
Coleman Brown
Midland
Hamilton
Freestone
Nacogdoches
Culberson
Tom
Limestone
Ward Crane
Mills
San Sabine
Coryell McLennan
Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho
Reeves
Leon Houston
Augustine
Falls
McCulloch San Lampasas
Jasper
Trinity
Bell
Saba
Robertson Madison
Newton
Schleicher Menard
Burnet
Crockett
Polk Tyler
Jeff
Milam
Pecos
Walker
Mason Llano
San
Brazos
Williamson
Davis
Kimble
Burleson Grimes
Jacinto
Sutton
Blanco
Gillespie
Hardin
Travis
Lee
Montgomery
Washington
Orange
Terrell
Bastrop
Kerr
Hays
Liberty
Presidio
Edwards
Val
Kendall
Waller
Fayette
Jefferson
Real
Harris
Caldwell
Brewster
Verde
Comal
Bandera
Austin
Chambers
Guadalupe
Fort
Colorado
Bexar
Bend
Galveston
Gonzales
Lavaca
Medina
Kinney Uvalde
Wharton
Wilson
Brazoria
DeWitt
Jackson
Maverick Zavala
Frio Atascosa Karnes
Victoria
Matagorda
Goliad
Calhoun
Live Bee
Dimmit
La Salle
Refugio
Oak
McMullen
San Aransas
Patricio
Jim
Webb
Nueces
Duval Wells
1,001-20,000
Bailey Lamb
Hale
Floyd Motley Cottle
20,001-80,000
80,000-228,000
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
El Paso
Pctch1013
Hudspeth
-0.106707 - 0.000000
0.000001 - 0.025000
0.025001 - 0.050000
0.050001 - 0.100000
0.100001 - 0.146341
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
POPESTIMATE2013
95-,10,000
10,001-50,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates.
50,001-100,000
Kleberg
Jim
Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy
Starr
Willacy
Hidalgo
Cameron
Estimated Percent Change of the Total
Legend
Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2013
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
Pctch1013
-11-0%
0.1-2.5%
Dallam
Lipscomb
Hansford
Sherman
Ochiltree
Hartley
Moore
Roberts
Hutchinson
Hemphill
Oldham
Potter Carson
Deaf
Smith
Armstrong
Randall
Parmer Castro
2.51-5%
Gray Wheeler
Collingsworth
Donley
Briscoe
Swisher
Hall Childress
Hardeman
Wilbarger
Wichita
Foard
Clay
Hockley
Lamar Red
Lubbock
Baylor
Archer
Crosby Dickens King Knox
Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin
Cochran
River
Bowie
Stonewall
Throckmorton
Jack Wise Denton
Delta
Titus
Collin
Young
Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Kent
Haskell
Hunt
Franklin
Morris Cass
Camp
Stephens
Rockwall Rains
Palo Parker Tarrant
Wood Upshur Marion
Dallas
Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher
Shackelford
Pinto
Van
Jones
Gregg Harrison
Kaufman Zandt
Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis
Smith
Nolan Taylor Callahan
Andrews Martin Howard
Somervell
Henderson
Rusk Panola
Mitchell
Navarro
Cherokee
Hill
Comanche
Coke Runnels
Bosque
Glasscock
Loving Winkler Ector
Anderson
Shelby
Sterling
Coleman Brown
Midland
Hamilton
Freestone
Nacogdoches
Culberson
Tom
Limestone
Ward Crane
Mills
San Sabine
Coryell McLennan
Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho
Reeves
Leon Houston
Augustine
Falls
McCulloch San Lampasas
Jasper
Trinity
Bell
Saba
Robertson Madison
Newton
Schleicher Menard
Burnet
Crockett
Polk Tyler
Jeff
Milam
Pecos
Walker
Mason Llano
San
Brazos
Williamson
Davis
Kimble
Burleson Grimes
Jacinto
Sutton
Blanco
Gillespie
Hardin
Travis
Lee
Montgomery
Washington
Orange
Terrell
Bastrop
Kerr
Hays
Liberty
Presidio
Edwards
Val
Kendall
Waller
Fayette
Jefferson
Real
Harris
Brewster
Verde
Comal Caldwell
Bandera
Austin
Chambers
Guadalupe
Fort
Colorado
Bexar
Bend
Galveston
Gonzales Lavaca
Kinney Uvalde Medina
Wharton
Wilson
Brazoria
DeWitt
Jackson
Maverick Zavala
Frio Atascosa Karnes
Victoria
Matagorda
Goliad
Calhoun
Live Bee
Dimmit
La Salle
Refugio
Oak
McMullen
San Aransas
Patricio
Jim
Webb
Duval Wells Nueces
Bailey Lamb
Hale
Floyd Motley Cottle
5.1-10%
10.1-14.7%
El Paso
Hudspeth
Kleberg
Jim
Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy
Starr
Willacy
Hidalgo
Cameron
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates.
Estimated Number of Net Migrants by
County, Texas, 2012 to 2013
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
NETMIG2013
-10,500-0
1-500
501-1,000
Dallam
Lipscomb
Hansford
Sherman
Ochiltree
Hartley
Moore
Roberts
Hutchinson
Hemphill
Oldham
Potter Carson
Deaf
Smith
Armstrong
Randall
Parmer Castro
Collingsworth
Donley
Briscoe
Swisher
Hall Childress
Hardeman
Wilbarger
Wichita
Foard
Clay
Hockley
Lamar
Lubbock
Crosby Dickens King Knox Baylor Archer
Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin
Cochran
Bailey Lamb
1,001-5,000
Gray Wheeler
Hale
Floyd Motley Cottle
Red
River
Bowie
Titus
Franklin
Morris Cass
Camp
Stephens
Rockwall Rains
Palo Parker Tarrant
Wood Upshur Marion
Dallas
Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher
Shackelford
Pinto
Van
Jones
Gregg Harrison
Kaufman Zandt
Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis
Smith
Nolan Taylor Callahan
Andrews Martin Howard
Somervell
Henderson
Rusk Panola
Mitchell
Navarro
Cherokee
Hill
Comanche
Coke
Bosque
Ector
Glasscock
Runnels
Loving Winkler
Anderson
Shelby
Sterling
Coleman Brown
Midland
Hamilton
Freestone
Nacogdoches
Culberson
Tom
Limestone
Ward Crane
Mills
San Sabine
Coryell McLennan
Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho
Reeves
Leon Houston
Augustine
Falls
McCulloch San Lampasas
Jasper
Trinity
Bell
Saba
Robertson Madison
Newton
Schleicher Menard
Burnet
Crockett
Polk
Jeff
Milam
Tyler
Pecos
Walker
Mason Llano
San
Brazos
Williamson
Davis
Kimble
Burleson Grimes
Jacinto
Sutton
Blanco
Gillespie
Hardin
Travis
Lee
Montgomery
Washington
Orange
Terrell
Bastrop
Kerr
Hays
Liberty
Presidio
Edwards
Val
Kendall
Waller
Fayette
Jefferson
Real
Harris
Brewster
Verde
Comal Caldwell
Bandera
Austin
Chambers
Guadalupe
Fort
Colorado
Bexar
Bend
Galveston
Gonzales Lavaca
Kinney Uvalde Medina
Wharton
Wilson
Brazoria
DeWitt
Jackson
Maverick Zavala
Frio Atascosa Karnes
Victoria
Matagorda
Goliad
Calhoun
Live
Dimmit
Bee
La Salle
Refugio
Oak
McMullen
San Aransas
Patricio
Jim
Webb
Duval Wells Nueces
5,001-10,000
Yoakum Terry
Lynn Garza
Stonewall
Throckmorton
Jack
Kent
Young
Haskell
Wise Denton Collin
Delta
Hunt
10,001-40,200
El Paso
Hudspeth
Kleberg
Jim
Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy
Starr
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage.
Willacy
Hidalgo
Cameron
11
http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
Number of Annual Immigrants Admitted to the
United States, FY 1820-2012
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
1820
1825
1830
1835
1840
1845
1850
1855
1860
1865
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
0
Fiscal Year
Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security 2013
Number of Non-Citizen Immigrants by World Area of Birth in the
Top 5 Immigration Receiving States, 2007-2011
10,957
22,721
Illinois
7,054
3,884
59,220
Florida
15,651
11,730
11,002
30,532
40,835
New York
17,403
Latin America
10,045
Asia
61,418
Texas
30,982
8,331
Europe
Africa and Other
8,814
56,831
100,835
California
18,766
11,660
Source: 5-Year ACS PUMS 2007-2011
Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas from Mexico,
India, China, and All Other Countries, 2005-2012
China
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
11.7%
6.1%
3.9%
37.1%
8.6%
6.5%
6.0%
1.3% 6.9%
4.2%
India
5.8%
45.4%
39.4%
39.5%
49.1%
7.0%
51.3%
2.4%
5.7%
54.9%
Source: 1-Year ACS PUMS 2005-2012
All Others
45.1%
42.1%
48.1%
52.3%
2.5%
0.8% 5.3%
Mexico
56.8%
40.9%
39.2%
36.9%
37.1%
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
2000 and 2010
2000
2010
Hispanic
or Latino
32%
Hispanic
or Latino
38%
NH
White
53%
NH
Other
4% NH Black
11%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
NH
Other
6%
NH
White
45%
NH Black
11%
0
Age
Under 1 year
4 years
8 years
12 years
16 years
20 years
24 years
28 years
32 years
36 years
40 years
44 years
48 years
52 years
56 years
60 years
64 years
68 years
72 years
76 years
80 years
84 years
88 years
92 years
96 years
100 to 104…
Population
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and
Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
250000
200000
White (non-Hispanic)
150000
Hispanic
100000
50000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Texas Population Pyramid by
Race/Ethnicity, 2010
NH White Male
NH White Female
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by
Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Hispanic Male
NH Black Male
NH Asian Male
NH Other Male
Hispanic Female
NH Black Female
NH Asian Female
NH Other Female
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
100,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by
Race/Ethnicity, 2010
NH White Male
Hispanic Male
NH Black Male
NH Asian Male
NH Other Male
NH White Female
Hispanic Female
NH Black Female
NH Asian Female
NH Other Female
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
100,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
The Texas Economy
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas Economic Indicators, February 2014
Fortune 500 companies based in Texas for 2011
according to revenues with State and U.S. rankings
State
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Corporation
US
ExxonMobil
ConocoPhillips
AT&T
Valero Energy
Marathon Oil
Dell
Sysco
Enterprise Products
Plains All American
Pipeline
AMR
Fluor
Tesoro
Kimberly-Clark
Halliburton
USAA
J.C. Penney
Baker Hughes
Texas Instruments
Waste Management
National Oilwell Varco
Dean Foods
Southwest Airlines
Apache Corp.
Anadarko Petroleum
KBR
2
4
12
24
29
41
67
80
99
118
124
128
130
144
145
146
170
175
196
202
203
205
206
223
242
Unemployment Rate, 2010 to 2014
Texas
12.0%
U.S. Unemployment
10.0%
8.0%
5.90%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
5.30%
Top States for Doing Business, 2014
1.GEORGIA
2.TEXAS
3.SOUTH CAROLINA
4.ALABAMA
5.TENNESSEE
6.LOUISIANA
7.INDIANA
8.NORTH CAROLINA
9.OHIO
10.MISSISSIPPI
Source: Area Development Online
www.areadevelopment.com
Leading Economic Locations, 2014
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Midland, TX (3)
Odessa, TX (9)
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX (15)
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX (16)
Corpus Christi, TX (19)
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (24)
College Station-Bryan, TX (40)
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX (47)
Source: Area Development Online
www.areadevelopment.com
Total U.S. Exports (Origin of Movement) via Texas
Top 10 Countries Based on 2013 Dollar Value
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/tx.html
Total U.S. Exports (Origin of Movement) via Texas
Top 25 6-digit HS Commodities Based on 2013 Dollar Value
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Description
PETROL OIL BITUM MINERAL
(NT CRUD) ETC NT BIO
LT OILS, PREPS GT=70%
PETROLEUM/BITUM NT BIOD
PARTS & ACCESSORIES FOR
ADP MACHINES & UNITS
CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT, ENGINES,
AND PARTS
PROCESSORS AND
CONTROLLERS, ELECTRONIC
INTEG
MACH FOR
RECP/CONVR/TRANS/REGN
OF VOICE/IMAGE
PROPANE, LIQUEFIED
PARTS FOR BORING OR
SINKING MACHINERY, NESOI
ACYCLIC ETHERS (EXCL
DIETHYL ETHER) NESOI
PARTS AND ACCESSORIES OF
MOTOR VEHICLES, NESO
2012 Value
2013 Value
2013 % Share
% Change, 2012
- 2013
34,321
36,466
13.0
6.2
19,739
21,633
7.7
9.6
6,731
9,717
3.5
44.4
4,958
4,981
1.8
0.5
4,644
4,973
1.8
7.1
5,085
4,875
1.7
-4.1
2,456
4,589
1.6
86.9
4,881
4,249
1.5
-13.0
2,905
2,929
1.0
0.8
3,807
2,848
1.0
-25.2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/tx.html
Employment Status and Characteristics
of Texas Labor Force, 2009 to 2013
2013
Population 16 years and over
2012
2011
2010
2009
20,168,039
19,828,118
19,455,689
19,123,208
18,606,350
*
64.9%
64.8%
64.9%
65.2%
66.2%
*
64.4%
64.3%
64.4%
64.7%
65.6%
*
59.9%
59.2%
58.9%
58.9%
60.3%
*
4.5%
5.1%
5.5%
5.7%
5.4%
*
Armed Forces
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
*
Not in labor force
35.1%
35.2%
35.1%
34.8%
33.8%
*
7.1%
8.0%
8.5%
8.8%
8.2%
*
Percent females in civilian labor
force
58.1%
57.8%
58.0%
58.7%
59.1%
*
Working parents with children
under 6 years
59.6%
59.8%
58.4%
59.4%
59.5%
Working parents with children 6
to 17 years
67.0%
67.1%
67.3%
68.1%
68.1%
In labor force
Civilian labor force
Employed
Unemployed
Percent of civilian labor force
unemployed
*2013 to 2009 Statistical Significance
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Comparative Economic Characteristics
*
Employment Status by Nativity, Texas,
2013
Total
Population 16 years
and over
In labor force
20,168,039
Native
Foreign
Born
16,030,156 4,137,883
Foreign
Foreign Born:
Born:
Not a U.S.
Naturalized
Citizen
1,457,369
2,680,514
64.9%
64.2%
67.5%
68.8%
66.7%
64.4%
63.7%
67.3%
68.5%
66.7%
59.9%
59.0%
63.4%
65.5%
62.2%
4.5%
4.7%
4.0%
3.1%
4.4%
Armed Forces
0.4%
0.5%
0.1%
0.3%
0.0%
Not in labor force
35.1%
35.8%
32.5%
31.2%
33.3%
Percent of civilian
labor force
unemployed
7.1%
7.4%
5.9%
4.5%
6.7%
Civilian labor force
Employed
Unemployed
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates
Industry by Nativity, Texas, 2013
Total
Native
Foreign
Born
Foreign Born:
Naturalized
Foreign Born:
Not a U.S.
Citizen
Agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting, mining
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.2%
3.7%
Construction
7.8%
5.8%
14.9%
7.0%
19.4%
Manufacturing
9.3%
8.7%
11.4%
12.3%
10.9%
Wholesale trade
3.1%
3.1%
2.9%
3.0%
2.9%
11.6%
12.2%
9.5%
10.4%
9.0%
Transportation & warehousing, utilities
5.2%
5.5%
4.3%
5.7%
3.6%
Information
1.8%
1.9%
1.2%
1.7%
0.9%
Finance & insurance, real estate & rental & leasing
6.6%
7.4%
3.7%
5.4%
2.8%
Professional, scientific, & management, administrative &
waste management services
11.1%
10.8%
12.3%
11.3%
12.9%
Educational services, health care & social assistance
21.3%
22.9%
15.8%
23.4%
11.5%
Arts, entertainment, & recreation, accommodation &
food services
9.0%
8.3%
11.5%
7.3%
13.9%
Other services (except public administration)
5.4%
4.8%
7.6%
6.9%
8.0%
Public administration
4.3%
5.1%
1.3%
2.5%
0.7%
Retail trade
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates
Projections
Projected Population Growth in Texas,
2010-2050
60,000,000
Migration Scenarios
55,000,000
Zero
50,000,000
.5 of 2000-2010
45,000,000
2000-2010
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
2010
2015
2020
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Projected Population Change, Texas
tl_2010_48_county10
Counties, 2010-2050
Legend
F6
-6,200 - 0
1 - 2,000
2,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 -3,480,000
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Projected
Percent
Population
Legend
Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
tl_2010_48_county10
F5
LT 0%
0-40%
41-100%
101-250%
251-500%
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent,
Texas, 2010-2050
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
NH-White
NH-Black
Hispanic
NH-Other
Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor
Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity –
High School Graduates and Above
100%
95%
90%
85%
White
80%
Black
75%
Hispanic
70%
Other
65%
60%
55%
50%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by
Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates,
Texas
35.0%
31.3%
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force
30.0%
23.8%
25.0%
2011 ACS
29.9%
2030 Constant 2011 %
24.0%
20.1%
20.0%
15.0%
18.7%
18.1%
15.0%
9.8%
10.0%
9.3%
5.0%
0.0%
Less than High School
High School or
Equivalent
Some College /
Associate Degree
Educational Attainment
These should be going DOWN
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.
Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate or
Professional Degree
These should be going UP
39
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by
Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended
Rates, Texas
40.0%
34.3%
35.0%
2011 ACS
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force
31.3%
2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend)
30.0%
23.8%
25.0%
22.1%
20.4%
20.1%
20.0%
15.0%
15.0%
11.8%
11.4%
9.8%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Less than High School
High School or
Equivalent
Some College /
Associate Degree
Educational Attainment
These should be going DOWN
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.
Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate or
Professional Degree
These should be going UP
40
Projections of Middle Skill Jobs by
Metro Area, 2017
Occupational Projections, 2012 to 2022
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Dallas WDA
Capital Area WDA
Concho Valley WDA (San Angelo)
Upper Rio Grande WDA (El Paso)
North Texas WDA (Wichita Falls)
West Central Texas WDA (Abilene)
Deep East WDA (Lufkin)
East Texas WDA (Tyler)
Central Texas WDA (Killeen)
Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, WDA Projections Overview, 2012-2022
Summary
• Population continues to grow quickly though growth is
geographically unequal.
• Population growth is being driven by Hispanic population.
• The future Texas labor force will be largely Hispanic.
• Hispanics tend to have lower levels of educational attainment
than other groups.
• Economic growth continues to be health with significant
growth in international economic activity
• Demographic and infrastructure challenges may have serious
implications for future Texas economy.
43
Contact
Office of the State Demographer
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530
Email: [email protected]
Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us