Transcript Document
Demographic Characteristics and Trends in Texas and Northeast Texas Annual District 4 Northeast Texas Continuing Education Conference December 4, 2014 Mt. Pleasant, Texas Topic Overview Dallam • Population growth and geographic variation of population growth Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Parmer Castro Briscoe Swisher Bailey Lamb Hale Hall Childress Floyd Motley Cottle Hockley Lubbock Crosby Dickens King Cochran Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Lamar Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Red River Bowie Delta Titus Wise Denton Collin Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Shackelford Pinto Van Jones Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis Smith Martin Howard Nolan Taylor Callahan Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Brewster Verde Comal Caldwell Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Kent Young Haskell Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Andrews El Paso Hudspeth Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron • Migration patterns • Race/ethnic composition and change • Local demographic and socioeconomic characteristics Clay Montague Cooke Lamar Grayson Red River Fannin Bowie Delta Jack Wise Denton Collin Titus Franklin Hopkins Hunt Cass Morris Camp Rockwall Parker Tarrant Rains Marion Wood Dallas Kaufman Upshur Van Zandt Harrison Gregg Hood Johnson Smith Ellis Somervell Henderson Panola Erath Rusk Navarro Hill • Projected population growth and implications Bosque Anderson Hamilton Cherokee Shelby Freestone Nacogdoches McLennan Limestone Coryell Leon Falls Bell Robertson San Augustine Houston Sabine Angelina Trinity Newton Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2013 Year* Population Numeric Change -- Annual Percent Change 1950 7,711,194 -- 1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 2.4 1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1.7 1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 2.7 1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 2.0 2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 2.3 2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 2.1 2012 26,060,796 915,235 1.8 2013 26,448,193 387,397 1.4 * All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates Texas Population 1950-2010 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 1950 1960 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010 2000-2010 1990-2000 53.7% 49.7% 1980-1990 1970-1980 1960-1970 1950-1960 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates 46.3% 50.3% 65.9% 41.5% 34.1% 58.5% 86.7% 89.5% Natural Increase 13.3% 10.5% Migration One third of the top 40 fastest growing counties in the United States are in Texas, 2012 to 2013 U.S. Rank 5 9 10 11 13 22 23 25 28 32 35 39 Geography Kendall County, Texas Fort Bend County, Texas Hays County, Texas Andrews County, Texas Dimmit County, Texas Comal County, Texas Ector County, Texas Ward County, Texas Williamson County, Texas Montgomery County, Texas Denton County, Texas Gaines County, Texas Population Estimate 2012 35,968 625,853 169,013 16,137 10,481 114,590 144,609 10,887 456,359 484,790 708,050 18,393 2013 37,766 652,365 176,026 16,799 10,897 118,480 149,378 11,244 471,014 499,137 728,799 18,921 Counties in bold had growth associated with oil and gas extraction. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates Change, 2012 to 2013 Number 1,798 26,512 7,013 662 416 3,890 4,769 357 14,655 14,347 20,749 528 Percent 5.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 One fourth of U.S. counties in the top 40 for numeric growth are in Texas, 2012-2013 U.S. Rank Geography Population Estimate Change, 2012 to 2013 2013 4,336,853 Number 82,890 Percent 1.9 1 Harris County, Texas 2012 4,253,963 6 Bexar County, Texas 1,785,787 1,817,610 31,823 1.8 8 Tarrant County, Texas 1,881,445 1,911,541 30,096 1.6 11 Fort Bend County, Texas 625,853 652,365 26,512 4.2 12 Dallas County, Texas 2,453,907 2,480,331 26,424 1.1 15 Travis County, Texas 1,096,246 1,120,954 24,708 2.3 22 Denton County, Texas 708,050 728,799 20,749 2.9 24 33 35 Collin County, Texas Williamson County, Texas Montgomery County, Texas 834,674 456,359 484,790 854,778 471,014 499,137 20,104 14,655 14,347 2.4 3.2 3.0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2013 Legend tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf POPESTIMATE2013 95-,10,000 10,001-50,000 Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Parmer Castro 50,001-100,000 100,000-500,000 Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Briscoe Swisher Hall Childress Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Lamar Lubbock Crosby Dickens King Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Cochran Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Bowie Titus Franklin Morris Cass Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Shackelford Pinto Van Jones Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis Smith Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Brewster Verde Comal Caldwell Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Nueces Duval Wells 500,001-1,000,000 Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Kent Young Haskell Wise Denton Collin 1,000,001-4,400,000 El Paso Hudspeth Red River Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates Delta Hunt orth Estimated Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2013 ss Legend Hardeman Wilbarger tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf Wichita Foard Nch1013 Clay Lamar Red Baylor Archer Knox -800-0 Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin River Bowie 1-1,000 l Throckmorton Jack Wise Denton Delta Titus Collin Young Haskell 1,001-20,000 Hunt Franklin Morris Cass 20,001-80,000 Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant 80,000-228,000 Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Shackelford Pinto Van Jones tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Hood Johnson Smith Pctch1013 Eastland Erath Ellis Taylor Callahan Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola -0.106707 - 0.000000 Navarro Cherokee Hill 0.000001 -Comanche 0.025000 Bosque unnels Anderson Shelby 0.025001 - 0.050000Hamilton Coleman Brown Freestone Nacogdoches 0.050001 - 0.100000 Limestone Mills San Sabin Coryell McLennan Houston oncho 0.100001 - 0.146341 Leon Augustine Falls San McCulloch Lampasas tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newto POPESTIMATE2013 Burnet Menard 99 counties lost population over the three year period. Polk Milam Tyler Walker Mason 95-,10,000 Llano San Brazos Williamson Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Source: U.S. 10,001-50,000 Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates. Blanco Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Parmer Castro Briscoe Swisher Bailey Lamb Hale Hall Childress Floyd Motley Cottle Hockley Lubbock Crosby Dickens King Cochran Red River Bowie Delta Titus Wise Denton Collin Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Dallas Upshur Marion Pinto Van Harrison Gregg Kaufman Zandt Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis Smith Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls San McCulloch Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Brewster Verde Comal Caldwell Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher El Paso Hudspeth Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Lamar Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Kent Young Haskell Stephens Shackelford Jones Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Estimated Percent Change of the Total Legend Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2013 tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf Pctch1013 -11-0% 0.1-2.5% Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Parmer Castro 2.51-5% Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Briscoe Swisher Hall Childress Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Lamar Red Lubbock Baylor Archer Crosby Dickens King Knox Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Cochran River Bowie Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Wise Denton Delta Titus Collin Young Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Kent Haskell Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Shackelford Pinto Van Jones Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis Smith Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Brewster Verde Comal Caldwell Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle 5.1-10% 10.1-14.7% El Paso Hudspeth Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates. Percent of Population Born in Texas, Counties, 2008-2012 Legend tl_2010_48_county10 PctNativeTXN Dallam Hansford Lipscomb Sherman Ochiltree 45-55% Hartley Moore Roberts Hemphill Hutchinson 56-60% Oldham Potter Carson Gray Wheeler 61-70% 71-80% 81-91% El Paso Hudspeth Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Donley Collingsworth Briscoe Parmer Castro Swisher Hall Childress Hardeman Wilbarger Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Lamar Red Montague Grayson Archer King Knox Baylor Cochran Lubbock Crosby Cooke Dickens Fannin Delta River Bowie Haskell Titus Young Jack Wise Denton Collin Hunt Yoakum Franklin Morris Lynn Garza Kent Stonewall Throckmorton Terry Hopkins Camp Cass Tarrant Rockwall Rains Wood Palo Jones Gaines Dawson Dallas Upshur Marion Shackelford Pinto Parker Borden Scurry Fisher Van Stephens Kaufman Gregg Harrison Hood Johnson Nolan Zandt Smith Ellis Howard Mitchell Andrews Callahan Eastland Somervell Rusk Martin Taylor Henderson Panola Erath Navarro Hill Cherokee Runnels Comanche Bosque Midland Glasscock Coke Loving Winkler Anderson Coleman Ector Shelby Freestone Hamilton Sterling Brown Culberson Nacogdoches Sabine McLennan Limestone Ward Crane Tom Mills Angelina San Reagan Coryell Irion Green Concho Leon Houston Upton Falls Augustine Reeves McCulloch San Lampasas Trinity Jasper Bell Saba Robertson Madison Burnet Schleicher Menard Jeff Polk Tyler Newton Milam Pecos Walker Crockett Mason Llano Brazos San Davis Williamson Sutton Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Hardin Lee Gillespie Blanco Travis Montgomery Washington Terrell Orange Kerr Waller Val Hays Bastrop Liberty Edwards Presidio Kendall Austin Jefferson Brewster Verde Harris Caldwell Fayette Real Comal Bandera Chambers Fort Guadalupe Colorado Bexar Galveston Bend Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Brazoria Wilson DeWitt Jackson Karnes Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Victoria Matagorda Goliad McMullen Calhoun La Dimmit Live Bee Refugio Salle Oak San Aransas Jim Patricio Wells Nueces Webb Duval Kleberg Zapata Jim Brooks Kenedy Hogg Starr Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012 Willacy Hidalgo Cameron 11 Percent of Population that is Foreign Born, Texas Counties, 2008-2012 Legend tl_2010_48_county10 PctFB 0-5% 6-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-41% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012 12 Numeric change in Hispanic population, Numeric Change Hispanic 2000-2010 by county, 2000-2010 nch_hsp0010 -1,200 - 0 1 - 1,000 1,001 - 5,000 5,001 - 15,000 15,001 - 25,000 25,001 - 56,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts 13 Numeric change in Asian population, by county, 2000-2010 nch_asi0010 Numeric Change Asian 2000-2010 -198 - 0 1 - 500 501 - 10,000 10,001 - 50,000 50,001 - 77,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts 14 Number of Annual Immigrants Admitted to the United States, FY 1820-2012 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 1820 1825 1830 1835 1840 1845 1850 1855 1860 1865 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 Fiscal Year Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security 2013 Number of Non-Citizen Immigrants by World Area of Birth in the Top 5 Immigration Receiving States, 2007-2011 10,957 22,721 Illinois 7,054 3,884 59,220 Florida 15,651 11,730 11,002 30,532 40,835 New York 17,403 Latin America 10,045 Asia 61,418 Texas 30,982 8,331 Europe Africa and Other 8,814 56,831 100,835 California 18,766 11,660 Source: 5-Year ACS PUMS 2007-2011 Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas from Mexico, India, China, and All Other Countries, 2005-2012 China 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 11.7% 6.1% 3.9% 37.1% 8.6% 6.5% 6.0% 1.3% 6.9% 4.2% India 5.8% 45.4% 39.4% 39.5% 49.1% 7.0% 51.3% 2.4% 5.7% 54.9% Source: 1-Year ACS PUMS 2005-2012 All Others 45.1% 42.1% 48.1% 52.3% 2.5% 0.8% 5.3% Mexico 56.8% 40.9% 39.2% 36.9% 37.1% millions Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in Texas, 1990-2012 Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, May Have Reversed, www.pewresearch.org/hispanic 18 r orth ss Estimated Number of Net Migrants by County, Texas, 2012 to 2013 Legend tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf NETMIG2013 Hardeman -10,500-0 Wilbarger 1-500 Wichita Foard 501-1,000 Clay Lamar Red Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin 1,001-5,000 River Bowie 5,001-10,000 l Throckmorton Jack Wise Denton Delta Titus Collin Young Haskell 10,001-40,200 Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Shackelford Pinto Van Jones Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis Smith Taylor Callahan Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Bosque unnels Anderson Shelby Coleman Brown Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Limestone Mills San Sabin Coryell McLennan Houston oncho Leon Augustine Falls San McCulloch Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson 19 Madison Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage. Newto Menard Burnet Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Parmer Castro Briscoe Swisher Bailey Lamb Hale Hall Childress Floyd Motley Cottle Hockley Lubbock Crosby Dickens King Cochran Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Lamar Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Red River Bowie Delta Titus Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Rockwall Rains Wood Palo Parker Tarrant Dallas Upshur Marion Pinto Van Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis Smith Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Brewster Verde Comal Caldwell Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Kent Young Haskell Wise Denton Collin Stephens Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Shackelford Jones o Hudspeth Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html 20 http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html 21 22 23 Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010 2000 2010 Hispanic or Latino 32% Hispanic or Latino 38% NH White 53% NH Other 4% NH Black 11% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count NH Other 6% NH White 45% NH Black 11% 0 Age Under 1 year 4 years 8 years 12 years 16 years 20 years 24 years 28 years 32 years 36 years 40 years 44 years 48 years 52 years 56 years 60 years 64 years 68 years 72 years 76 years 80 years 84 years 88 years 92 years 96 years 100 to 104… Population Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010 250000 200000 White (non-Hispanic) 150000 Hispanic 100000 50000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 25 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 NH White Male NH White Female 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 26 200,000 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Hispanic Male Hispanic Female 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 27 200,000 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male NH White Female Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 28 200,000 Percent of the Texas Civilian Labor Force by Nativity and Citizenship, 2013 Native, 78.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Foreign Born: Naturalized, 7.7% Foreign Born: Not a U.S. Citizen, 13.7% Industry by Nativity, Texas, 2013 25.00% Total Native Foreign Born: Naturalized Foreign Born: Not a U.S. Citizen 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting, mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Retail trade Transportation & warehousing, utilities Information Industry by Nativity, Texas, 2013 Total Native Foreign Born: Naturalized Foreign Born: Not a U.S. Citizen 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Finance & insurance, real estate & rental & leasing Professional, Educational scientific, & services, health management, care & social administrative & assistance waste management services Arts, entertainment, & recreation, accommodation & food services Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Other services (except public administration) Public administration Estimated Numeric Change of the County Population Legend Living in Unincorporated Areas tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf between 2010 and 2013, Texas Counties nchuninc -2,600-0 1-1,000 deman Wilbarger 1,001-1,500 Wichita ard 1,501-5,000 Clay Lamar nox Baylor5,001-12,100 Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Throckmorton askell Young Jack Delta Hunt Red River Bowie Titus Franklin Cass Morris Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Dallas Wood Upshur Marion Shackelford Pinto es Kaufman Van Gregg Harrison Zandt Hood Johnson Eastland Erath Smith Ellis or Callahan Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Bosque els Anderson Shelby Coleman Brown Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Limestone Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Houston cho Leon Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas 32 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage. Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Parmer Castro Briscoe Swisher Bailey Lamb Hale Hall Childress Floyd Motley Cottle Hockley Lubbock Crosby Dickens King Cochran Stonewall Throckmorton Lynn Garza Kent Haskell Young Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher El Paso Hudspeth Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Lamar Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Red River Bowie Delta Jack Wise Denton Collin Titus Hunt Franklin Cass Morris Camp Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Dallas Wood Upshur Marion Pinto Kaufman Van Gregg Harrison Zandt Hood Johnson Eastland Erath Smith Ellis Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Tom Limestone Ward Culberson Mills Crane San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Terrell Washington Orange Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Brewster Verde Comal Caldwell Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces Yoakum Terry Stephens Shackelford Jones Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Wise Denton Collin er orth Legend ess Percent of housing units built in 2010 or later, Texas Counties, 2012 tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf pctblt2010later Hardeman 0.0-0.25% Wilbarger e Wichita Foard 0.26-.0.5% Clay 0.51-1.5% Lamar Red Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin River 1.51-2.0% Bowie ll Throckmorton Jack Wise Denton Delta 2.01-2.5% Titus Collin Young Haskell Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Shackelford Pinto Van Jones Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Hood Johnson Eastland Erath Smith Ellis Taylor Callahan Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Bosque unnels Anderson Shelby Coleman Brown Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Limestone Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Houston Concho Leon Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Menard Burnet 33 Polk Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012 Milam Tyler Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Parmer Castro Briscoe Swisher Bailey Lamb Hale Hall Childress Floyd Motley Cottle Hockley Lubbock Crosby Dickens King Cochran Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Lamar Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Red River Bowie Delta Titus Wise Denton Collin Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Shackelford Pinto Van Jones Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis Smith Martin Howard Nolan Taylor Callahan Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Brewster Verde Comal Caldwell Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Kent Young Haskell Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Andrews El Paso Hudspeth Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Median housing unit value, Texas Counties, 2008-2012 Legend tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf medHUvalue $ 36,000-60,000 $ 60,001-90,000 man $ 90,001-120,000 Wilbarger $ 120,001-160,000 Wichita d $ 160,001-273,000 Clay Lamar Red x Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin River Bowie hrockmorton Jack Wise Denton Delta Titus Collin Young kell Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Shackelford Pinto Van Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Hood Johnson Eastland Erath Smith Ellis Callahan Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Bosque Anderson Shelby Coleman Brown Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Limestone Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Houston o Leon 34 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012 Augustine Falls San McCulloch Lampasas Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Parmer Castro Briscoe Swisher Bailey Lamb Hale Hall Childress Floyd Motley Cottle Hockley Lubbock Crosby Dickens King Cochran Lynn Garza Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Kent Young Haskell Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher l Paso Hudspeth Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Lamar Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Red River Bowie Delta Titus Wise Denton Collin Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Pinto Van Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis Smith Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Jefferson Real Harris Caldwell Fayette Brewster Verde Comal Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces Yoakum Terry Stephens Shackelford Jones Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron ler Mean travel time to work, Texas Counties, 2008-2012 Legend worth tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf Avgtravworkmins ress 8-15 minutes Hardeman 16-20 minutes Wilbarger e Foard 21-25 minutesWichita Clay 26-30 minutes Lamar Red g Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin River 31-40 minutes Bowie all Throckmorton Jack Wise Denton Delta Titus Collin Young Haskell Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Shackelford Pinto Van Jones Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Hood Johnson Eastland Erath Smith Ellis Taylor Callahan Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Bosque Runnels Anderson Shelby Coleman Brown Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Limestone Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Houston Concho Leon Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison 35 Newton Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012 Menard Burnet Polk Tyler Milam Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Parmer Castro Briscoe Swisher Bailey Lamb Hale Hall Childress Floyd Motley Cottle Hockley Lubbock Crosby Dickens King Cochran Lynn Garza Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Kent Young Haskell Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Paso Hudspeth Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Lamar Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Red River Bowie Delta Titus Wise Denton Collin Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Pinto Van Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis Smith Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Jacinto Sutton Grimes Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Caldwell Brewster Verde Comal Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces Yoakum Terry Stephens Shackelford Jones Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron 0-10% 10-20% 20-30%business, Percent of the labor force working in management, 30-50% science, and arts occupations, census tracts, Texas, 2007-2011 50-91% ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXAS Pct Business Science 0-15% 15.1 - 25% 25.1 - 35% 35.1 - 45% 45.1 - 85% Clay Montague Cooke Lamar Grayson Red River Fannin Bowie Delta Jack Wise Denton Collin Titus Franklin Hopkins Hunt Cass Morris Camp Rockwall Parker Tarrant Rains Marion Wood Dallas Kaufman Upshur Van Zandt Harrison Gregg Hood Johnson Smith Ellis Somervell Henderson Panola Erath Source: Source: U.S. U.S. Census Census Bureau, Bureau, American American Community Community Survey, Survey, Five-Hill FiveBosque YearYear Sample, Sample, 2007-2011. 2007-2011. Rusk Navarro 36 Cherokee Shelby Percent of the labor force working in natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations,Legend census tracts, ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXA Texas, 2007-2011 Natural Resources Construction 0-5% 5-15% 15-20% 20-30% Clay 30-53% Montague Cooke Lamar Grayson Red River Fannin Bowie Delta Jack Wise Denton Collin Franklin Hopkins Hunt Titus Cass Morris Camp Rockwall Parker Tarrant Rains Marion Wood Dallas Kaufman Upshur Van Zandt Harrison Gregg Hood Johnson Smith Ellis Somervell Henderson Panola Erath Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Hill American Community Survey, FiveYear Sample, 2007-2011. Bosque Rusk Navarro 37 Percent of households that are female headed with children less than 18 years of age present, no husband Legend present, census tracts, Texas, 2007-2011 ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXAS Female HH Children Present vc12 0-5% 5.1-10% 10.1-15% 15.1-20% 30.1-45% Clay Montague Cooke Lamar Grayson Red River Fannin Bowie Delta Jack Wise Denton Collin Hunt Titus Franklin Hopkins Cass Morris Camp Rockwall Parker Tarrant Rains Marion Wood Dallas Kaufman Upshur Van Zandt Harrison Gregg Hood Johnson Smith Ellis Somervell Henderson Panola Erath Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey,Hill FiveBosque Year Sample, 2007-2011. Rusk Navarro 38 Cherokee Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050 Migration Scenarios 60,000,000 Zero 55,000,000 .5 of 2000-2010 50,000,000 2000-2010 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 39 Projected Population Change, Texas tl_2010_48_county10 Counties, 2010-2050 Legend F6 -6,200 - 0 1 - 2,000 2,001 - 10,000 10,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 1,000,000 1,000,001 -3,480,000 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario 40 Projected Percent Population Legend Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050 tl_2010_48_county10 F5 LT 0% 0-40% 41-100% 101-250% 251-500% Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario 41 Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 NH-White NH-Black Hispanic NH-Other 5,000,000 0 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario 42 Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above 100% 95% 90% 85% White 80% Black 75% Hispanic 70% Other 65% 60% 55% 50% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011 Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, Texas 35.0% 31.3% Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 30.0% 23.8% 25.0% 2011 ACS 29.9% 2030 Constant 2011 % 24.0% 20.1% 20.0% 15.0% 18.7% 18.1% 15.0% 9.8% 10.0% 9.3% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree These should be going UP 44 Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas 40.0% 34.3% 35.0% 2011 ACS Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 31.3% 2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend) 30.0% 23.8% 25.0% 22.1% 20.4% 20.1% 20.0% 15.0% 15.0% 11.8% 11.4% 9.8% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree These should be going UP 45 Estimated Percent Uninsured Under 65 Years of Age by County, 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (SAHIE) Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530 Email: [email protected] Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us 47