Transcript Document
Population Growth of Texas Cities and Its Impact Joint House Committee Hearing on Land & Resource Management and Urban Affairs October 15, 2014 Austin, Texas Overview • • • • • • • • • Texas is experiencing rapid population growth. This growth is not geographically evenly distributed. This growth is not evenly distributed across race/ethnic groups. Texas has a significant aging population. Amidst rapid growth, parts of Texas are experiencing natural decline. There is great geographic variation in demands for services and on infrastructure. The future Texas labor force will be largely Hispanic. Hispanics tend to have lower levels of educational attainment than other groups and are less represented in higher skilled occupations. A well-educated labor force can bolster a diverse economy, making it more resilient to economic downturns. 2 Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2013 Year* Population Numeric Change Annual Percent Change 1950 7,711,194 -- -- 1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 2.4 1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1.7 1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 2.7 1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 2.0 2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 2.3 2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 2.1 2012 26,060,796 915,235 1.8 2013 26,448,193 387,397 1.4 * All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010 2000-2010 1990-2000 53.7% 49.7% 1980-1990 1970-1980 1960-1970 1950-1960 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates 46.3% 50.3% 65.9% 41.5% 34.1% 58.5% 86.7% 89.5% Natural Increase 13.3% 10.5% Migration One third of U.S. cities in the top 20 for numeric growth are in Texas, 2012 to 2013 U.S. Rank Geography 4 7 Houston, Texas San Antonio, Texas 9 11 17 Dallas, Texas Austin, Texas Fort Worth, Texas 19 El Paso, Texas Population Estimate 2012 2,160,712 1,383,641 2013 2,195,914 1,409,019 1,241,700 864,407 778,084 1,257,676 885,400 792,727 674,124 674,433 5 One-third of the top 40 fastest growing cities in the United States are in Texas, 2012 to 2013 U.S. Rank 1 2 4 7 11 13 15 18 20 21 31 32 34 Geography San Marcos, TX Frisco, TX Cedar Park, TX Georgetown, TX Odessa, TX McKinney, TX Pearland, TX New Braunfels, TX Midland, TX Pflugerville, TX League City, TX North Richland Hills, TX Round Rock, TX Population Estimate 2012 50,092 128,463 57,965 52,533 106,500 143,032 96,374 61,006 119,665 51,936 88,286 65,327 106,710 2013 54,076 136,791 61,238 54,898 110,720 148,559 100,065 63,279 123,933 53,752 90,983 67,317 109,821 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Population Estimates – Places of 50,000+ Population Change, 2012 to 2013 Number 3,984 8,328 3,273 2,365 4,220 5,527 3,691 2,273 4,268 1,816 2,697 1,990 3,111 Percent 8.0 6.5 5.6 4.5 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.9 6 Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2013 Legend tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf POPESTIMATE2013 95-,10,000 10,001-50,000 Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Parmer Castro 50,001-100,000 Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Briscoe Swisher Hall Childress Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Lamar Red Lubbock Baylor Archer Crosby Dickens King Knox Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Cochran River Bowie Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Wise Denton Delta Titus Collin Garza Kent Young Yoakum Terry Lynn Haskell Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Shackelford Pinto Van Jones Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis Smith Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell Houston McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Caldwell Brewster Verde Comal Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Medina Uvalde Kinney Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle 100,000-500,000 500,001-1,000,000 1,000,001-4,400,000 El Paso Hudspeth Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2013 Population Estimates 7 Estimated Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2013 Legend tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf Nch1013 Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall -800-0 1-1,000 Parmer Castro 99 counties lost population over the three year period Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Briscoe Swisher Hall Childress Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Lamar Red Lubbock Crosby Dickens King Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Cochran River Bowie Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Wise Denton Delta Titus Collin Garza Kent Lynn Young Yoakum Terry Haskell Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Shackelford Pinto Van Jones Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis Smith Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Caldwell Brewster Verde Comal Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Medina Kinney Uvalde Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Nueces Duval Wells 1,001-20,000 Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle 20,001-80,000 80,000-228,000 tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf El Paso Pctch1013 Hudspeth -0.106707 - 0.000000 0.000001 - 0.025000 0.025001 - 0.050000 0.050001 - 0.100000 0.100001 - 0.146341 tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf Kleberg POPESTIMATE2013 95-,10,000 Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron 10,001-50,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage. 8 Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2013 Legend tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf Pctch1013 -11-0% 0.1-2.5% Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Parmer Castro 2.51-5% Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Briscoe Swisher Hall Childress Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Lamar Red Lubbock Baylor Archer Crosby Dickens King Knox Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Cochran River Bowie Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Wise Denton Delta Titus Collin Young Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Kent Haskell Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Shackelford Pinto Van Jones Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis Smith Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Brewster Verde Comal Caldwell Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle 5.1-10% 10.1-14.7% El Paso Hudspeth Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage. 9 Estimated Number of Net Migrants by County, Texas, 2012 to 2013 Legend tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf NETMIG2013 -10,500-0 1-500 501-1,000 Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Parmer Castro Collingsworth Donley Briscoe Swisher Hall Childress Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Lamar Lubbock Crosby Dickens King Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Cochran Bailey Lamb 1,001-5,000 Gray Wheeler Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Red River Bowie Titus Franklin Morris Cass Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Shackelford Pinto Van Jones Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis Smith Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Bosque Ector Glasscock Runnels Loving Winkler Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Jeff Milam Tyler Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Brewster Verde Comal Caldwell Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Dimmit Bee La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces 5,001-10,000 Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Kent Young Haskell Wise Denton Collin Delta Hunt 10,001-40,200 El Paso Hudspeth Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage. Willacy Hidalgo Cameron 10 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas Economic Indicators, February 2014 11 Legend Estimated Percent of Housing Units Occupied, Texas tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf Counties, 2008-2012 PctoccupHU 43-60% 61-70% Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Parmer Castro 71-80% 81-90% Briscoe Swisher Hall Childress Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Lynn Garza Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Kent Young Haskell Wise Denton Collin Stephens Shackelford Jones Delta Hunt Red River Bowie Titus Franklin Morris Cass Camp Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Pinto Van Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Hood Johnson Eastland Erath Smith Ellis Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Jeff Milam Tyler Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Brewster Verde Comal Caldwell Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Dimmit Bee La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces 91-95% Hudspeth Collingsworth Donley Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Lamar Lubbock Baylor Archer Crosby Dickens King Knox Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Cochran Bailey Lamb Yoakum Terry El Paso Gray Wheeler Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012 Cameron 12 Legend Percent of housing units built in 2010 or later, Texas tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf Counties, 2012 pctblt2010later 0.0-0.25% 0.26-.0.5% 0.51-1.5% 1.51-2.0% Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Parmer Castro Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Briscoe Swisher Hall Childress Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Lamar Lubbock Crosby Dickens King Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Cochran Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Red River Bowie Titus Franklin Morris Cass Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Dawson Wood Dallas Upshur Marion Gaines Shackelford Borden Scurry Fisher Pinto Van Jones Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Hood Johnson Eastland Erath Smith Ellis Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Caldwell Brewster Verde Comal Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Medina Kinney Uvalde Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Kent Young Haskell Wise Denton Collin Delta Hunt 2.01-2.5% El Paso Hudspeth Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012 13 Median housing unit value, Texas Counties, 2008-2012 Legend Dallam tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf Hartley medHUvalue $ 36,000-60,000 $ 60,001-90,000 $ 90,001-120,000 $ 120,001-160,000 Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Parmer Castro El Paso Hudspeth Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Briscoe Swisher Hall Childress Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Lamar Lubbock Crosby Dickens King Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Cochran Bailey Lamb Yoakum Terry $ 160,001-273,000 Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Lynn Garza Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Kent Young Haskell Wise Denton Collin Stephens Shackelford Jones Delta Hunt Red River Bowie Titus Franklin Morris Cass Camp Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Pinto Van Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Hood Johnson Eastland Erath Smith Ellis Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Brewster Verde Comal Caldwell Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012 Cameron 14 Mean travel time to work, Texas Counties, 2008-2012 Legend tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf Avgtravworkmins 8-15 minutes 16-20 minutes Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Parmer Castro 21-25 minutes 26-30 minutes El Paso Hudspeth Collingsworth Donley Briscoe Swisher Hall Childress Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Lamar Lubbock Crosby Dickens King Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Cochran Bailey Lamb Yoakum Terry 31-40 minutes Gray Wheeler Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Lynn Garza Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Kent Young Haskell Wise Denton Collin Stephens Shackelford Jones Delta Hunt Red River Bowie Titus Franklin Morris Cass Camp Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Pinto Van Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Hood Johnson Eastland Erath Smith Ellis Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Brewster Verde Comal Caldwell Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012 15 Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050 Migration Scenarios 60,000,000 Zero 55,000,000 .5 of 2000-2010 50,000,000 2000-2010 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 16 Projected Population Change, tl_2010_48_county10Texas Counties, 2010-2050 Legend F6 -6,200 - 0 1 - 2,000 2,001 - 10,000 10,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 1,000,000 1,000,001 -3,480,000 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario 17 Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050 tl_2010_48_county10 Legend F5 LT 0% 0-40% 41-100% 101-250% 251-500% Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario 18 Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario NH-White NH-Black Hispanic NH-Other Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above 100% 95% 90% 85% White 80% Black 75% Hispanic 70% Other 65% 60% 55% 50% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011 Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, Texas 35.0% 31.3% Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 30.0% 23.8% 25.0% 2011 ACS 29.9% 2030 Constant 2011 % 24.0% 20.1% 20.0% 15.0% 18.7% 18.1% 15.0% 9.8% 10.0% 9.3% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree These should be going UP 21 Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas 40.0% 34.3% 35.0% 2011 ACS Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 31.3% 2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend) 30.0% 23.8% 25.0% 22.1% 20.4% 20.1% 20.0% 15.0% 15.0% 11.8% 11.4% 9.8% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree These should be going UP 22 Office of the State Demographer Phone: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530 Email: [email protected] Web: http://osd.state.tx.us 23