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Texas Population Characteristics, Trends, and Projections Texas Electric Cooperatives Human Resources Conference May 19, 2015 Dallas, Texas Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2014 Year* Population Numeric Change -- Annual Percent Change 1950 7,711,194 -- 1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 2.4 1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1.7 1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 2.7 1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 2.0 2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 2.3 2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 2.1 2012 26,060,796 915,235 1.8 2013 26,448,193 387,397 1.4 2014 26,956,958 451,321 1.7 * All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2014 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. 3 Texas Population Growth 1950-2010 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 1950 1960 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Historic County Population, Texas 1960 1950 1990 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses 1970 2000 1980 2010 4 Estimated Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage. 5 Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage. 6 30% of the top 40 fastest growing counties in the United States are in Texas, 2013 to 2014 U.S. Rank 5 6 9 12 13 14 15 21 23 31 32 35 36 37 Geography Population Estimate Hays County, Texas Fort Bend County, Texas Comal County, Texas Andrews County, Texas Montgomery County, Texas Williamson County, Texas Kendall County, Texas Ward County, Texas Denton County, Texas Collin County, Texas Aransas County, Texas Rockwall County, Texas Waller, County Ector County, Texas 2013 176,483 654,561 118,891 16,808 499,818 471,225 37,469 11,245 729,152 858,711 24,299 85,290 45,484 149,522 2014 185,025 685,345 123,694 17,477 518,947 489,250 38,880 11,625 753,363 885,241 24,972 87,809 46,820 153,904 Change, 2013 to 2014 Number 8,542 30,784 4,803 669 19,129 18,025 1,411 380 24,211 26,530 743 2,519 1,336 4,382 Percent 4.8 4.7 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 Counties in bold had growth associated with oil and gas extraction. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimates 7 More than 1/4 of U.S. counties in the top 40 for numeric growth are in Texas, 2013-2014 U.S. Rank Geography Population Estimate Change, 2013 to 2014 2014 4,441,370 Number 88,618 Percent 2.0 1 Harris County, Texas 2013 4,352,752 6 Bexar County, Texas 1,822,154 1,855,866 33,712 1.9 8 Dallas County, Texas 2,486,083 2,518,638 32,555 1.3 10 Tarrant County, Texas 1,913,943 1,945,360 31,417 1.6 11 Fort Bend County, Texas 654,561 685,345 30,784 4.7 12 Travis County, Texas 1,122,748 1,151,145 28,397 2.5 14 Collin County, Texas 858,711 885,241 26,530 3.1 16 27 31 Denton County, Texas Montgomery County, Texas Williamson County, Texas 729,152 499,818 471,225 753,363 518,947 489,250 24,211 19,129 18,025 3.3 3.8 3.8 39 Hidalgo County 818,942 831,073 12,060 1.5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimates 6 Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010 2000-2010 1990-2000 1960-1970 1950-1960 50.3% 49.7% 1980-1990 1970-1980 46.3% 53.7% 34.1% 65.9% 58.5% 41.5% 10.5% 89.5% Natural Increase Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates 13.3% 86.7% Migration 9 Estimated Number of Net Migrants by County, Texas, 2013 to 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage. 10 Net Migration Percent of 2013-2014 Population Change from Net Migration Ft. Worth Dallas Midland Austin Houston San Antonio 11 Number of Annual Immigrants Admitted to the United States, FY 1820-2012 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 1820 1825 1830 1835 1840 1845 1850 1855 1860 1865 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 Fiscal Year Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security 2013 Number of Non-Citizen Immigrants by World Area of Birth in the Top 5 Immigration Receiving States, 2007-2011 10,957 22,721 Illinois 7,054 3,884 59,220 Florida 15,651 11,730 11,002 30,532 40,835 New York 17,403 Latin America 10,045 Asia 61,418 Texas 30,982 8,331 Europe Africa and Other 8,814 56,831 100,835 California 18,766 11,660 Source: 5-Year ACS PUMS 2007-2011 Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas from Mexico, India, China, and All Other Countries, 2005-2012 China 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 11.7% 6.1% 3.9% 37.1% 8.6% 6.5% 6.0% 1.3% 6.9% 4.2% India 5.8% 45.4% 39.4% 39.5% 49.1% 7.0% 51.3% 2.4% 5.7% 54.9% Source: 1-Year ACS PUMS 2005-2012 All Others 45.1% 42.1% 48.1% 52.3% 2.5% 0.8% 5.3% Mexico 56.8% 40.9% 39.2% 36.9% 37.1% Inflows to Texas from Top 10 Sending States, 2013 Top 10 Senders, Numerically California Florida Oklahoma Louisiana Illinois New Mexico Georgia New York Arizona Colorado 66,318 32,619 29,169 29,042 28,900 22,695 19,988 19,935 19,224 18,979 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State to State Flows 2013; Inflows to Texas Top 10 Senders, Percentage-wise New Mexico Louisiana Oklahoma Arkansas Wyoming Colorado California Arizona Kansas Mississippi 30% 29% 29% 22% 17% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 15 Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004-2014 Washington 320,000 New York 550,000 California North Carolina 810,000 340,000 Texas 2,180,000 Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004-2014 Percentage of Total U.S. Job Gains Attributable to each State Texas 29% 11% California 7% 4% 4% New York North Carolina Washington Percent of the Population Born in Texas, Texas Counties, 2009-2013 tl_2010_48_county10 Dallam PctBrnTX Hansford Ochiltree Lipscomb Sherman Roberts Moore Hartley Hemphill Hutchinson 44.7% - 55% Oldham Deaf Smith 55.1% - 65% Armstrong Bailey Lamb 75.1% - 85% Hockley Hale Hudspeth Childress Hardeman Floyd Motley Cottle Lubbock Wilbarger Foard Dickens King Crosby Wichita Clay Montague Knox Baylor Archer Cooke Grayson Fannin Red Lamar River Bowie Delta Titus Young Jack Wise Denton Collin Hunt Franklin Throckmorton Morris Cass Hopkins Haskell Dawson Scurry Rockwall Rains Wood Camp Palo Parker Tarrant Shackelford Marion Gaines Fisher Dallas Van Pinto Borden Jones Upshur Harrison Stephens Zandt Nolan Taylor Erath Hood Johnson Smith Gregg Ellis Kaufman Eastland Andrews Martin Howard Mitchell Henderson Somervell Callahan Rusk Panola Glasscock Navarro Hill Cherokee Bosque Comanche Loving Winkler Ector Midland Coke Runnels Anderson Shelby Brown Hamilton Sterling Freestone Coleman Nacogdoches McLennan Ward Mills Tom Crane Upton San Culberson Coryell Reagan Irion Green Concho Falls Leon Houston Augustine San Reeves McCulloch Saba Lampasas Sabine Angelina Trinity Robertson Bell Madison Newton Burnet Polk Schleicher Menard Crockett Jeff Walker Milam Tyler Pecos Mason Llano Brazos Williamson Jasper Davis San Kimble Burleson Grimes Sutton Jacinto Travis Gillespie Hardin Lee Montgomery Blanco Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Hays Kerr Liberty Austin Edwards Presidio Kendall Val Waller Jefferson Fayette Harris Caldwell Real Comal Brewster Verde Bandera Chambers Colorado Guadalupe Fort Bexar Yoakum El Paso Hall Briscoe Cochran 85.1% - 90.6% Donley Swisher Castro Wheeler Collingsworth Randall Parmer 65.1% - 75% Gray Potter Carson Terry Stonewall Lynn Garza Kent Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Maverick Jackson Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Matagorda Goliad Victoria Live Calhoun Dimmit Oak Bee Refugio La Salle McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Nueces Webb Duval Wells Kinney Uvalde Medina Kleberg Jim Brooks Zapata Hogg Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5 Year Sample 18 Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010 2000 2010 Hispanic or Latino 32% Hispanic or Latino 38% NH White 53% NH Other 4% NH Black 11% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count NH Other 6% NH White 45% NH Black 11% 0 Age Under 1 year 4 years 8 years 12 years 16 years 20 years 24 years 28 years 32 years 36 years 40 years 44 years 48 years 52 years 56 years 60 years 64 years 68 years 72 years 76 years 80 years 84 years 88 years 92 years 96 years 100 to 104… Population Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010 250000 200000 White (non-Hispanic) 150000 Hispanic 100000 50000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 20 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 NH White Male NH White Female 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 21 200,000 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 22 200,000 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male NH White Female Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 23 200,000 Legend Percent of Households with at Least One Person Over the Age of 64 Years, Texas Counties, 2008-2012 tl_2010_48_county10 Dallam Hansford Lipscomb Sherman Ochiltree Hartley 13-20% Moore Roberts Hemphill Hutchinson Oldham Potter Carson Gray Wheeler 21-30% Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Donley Collingsworth PctHHGT64 31-40% 41-50% 51-53% El Paso Hudspeth Briscoe Parmer Castro Swisher Hall Childress Hardeman Wilbarger Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Lamar Red Montague Grayson King Knox Baylor Archer Cochran Lubbock Crosby Cooke Dickens Fannin Delta River Bowie Haskell Titus Young Jack Wise Denton Collin Hunt Yoakum Franklin Morris Lynn Garza Kent Stonewall Throckmorton Terry Hopkins Camp Cass Tarrant Rockwall Rains Wood Palo Jones Dallas Gaines Dawson Upshur Marion Shackelford Pinto Parker Borden Scurry Fisher Kaufman Van Stephens Gregg Harrison Zandt Hood Johnson Nolan Smith Ellis Andrews Callahan Eastland Somervell Howard Mitchell Rusk Taylor Henderson Martin Panola Erath Navarro Hill Cherokee Runnels Comanche Bosque Midland Glasscock Coke Loving Winkler Anderson Coleman Ector Shelby Freestone Hamilton Sterling Brown Culberson Nacogdoches Sabine McLennan Limestone Ward Crane Tom Mills Angelina San Reagan Coryell Irion Green Concho Leon Houston Upton Falls Augustine Reeves McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Bell Saba Robertson Madison Trinity Burnet Schleicher Menard Jeff Polk Tyler Newton Milam Pecos Walker Crockett Mason Llano Brazos San Davis Williamson Sutton Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Hardin Lee Gillespie Blanco Travis Montgomery Washington Terrell Orange Kerr Waller Bastrop Val Hays Liberty Edwards Presidio Kendall Austin Jefferson Brewster Fayette Verde Harris Caldwell Real Comal Bandera Chambers Guadalupe Colorado Fort Bexar Galveston Bend Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Brazoria Wilson DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad McMullen Calhoun La Dimmit Bee Live Refugio Salle Oak San Aransas Jim Patricio Wells Webb Nueces Duval Kleberg Zapata Jim Brooks Kenedy Hogg Starr Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012 Willacy Hidalgo Cameron 24 Median Age, Texas Counties, 2009-2013 tl_2010_48_county10 MedAge Dallam 25 - 35 Hansford Ochiltree Lipscomb Sherman Roberts Moore Hartley Hemphill Hutchinson Oldham 36 - 40 Deaf Smith Potter Carson Bailey Lamb 46 - 50 Hockley Hudspeth Childress Hale Hardeman Floyd Motley Cottle Lubbock Dickens King Crosby Wilbarger Foard Wichita Clay Montague Knox Baylor Archer Cooke Grayson Fannin Red Lamar River Bowie Delta Titus Young Jack Wise Denton Collin Hunt Franklin Throckmorton Morris Cass Hopkins Haskell Dawson Scurry Rockwall Rains Wood Camp Palo Parker Tarrant Shackelford Marion Gaines Fisher Dallas Van Pinto Borden Jones Upshur Harrison Stephens Zandt Nolan Taylor Erath Hood Johnson Smith Gregg Ellis Kaufman Eastland Andrews Martin Howard Mitchell Henderson Somervell Callahan Rusk Panola Glasscock Navarro Hill Cherokee Bosque Comanche Loving Winkler Ector Midland Coke Runnels Anderson Shelby Brown Hamilton Sterling Freestone Coleman Nacogdoches McLennan Ward Mills Tom Crane Upton San Culberson Coryell Concho Reagan Irion Green Falls Leon Houston Augustine San Reeves McCulloch Saba Lampasas Sabine Angelina Trinity Robertson Bell Madison Newton Burnet Polk Schleicher Menard Crockett Jeff Walker Milam Tyler Pecos Mason Llano Brazos Williamson Jasper Davis San Kimble Burleson Grimes Sutton Jacinto Travis Gillespie Hardin Lee Montgomery Blanco Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Hays Kerr Liberty Austin Edwards Presidio Kendall Val Waller Jefferson Fayette Harris Caldwell Real Comal Brewster Verde Bandera Chambers Colorado Guadalupe Fort Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Maverick Jackson Karnes Zavala Frio Atascosa Matagorda Goliad Victoria Live Calhoun Dimmit Bee Oak Refugio La Salle McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Nueces Duval Wells Yoakum El Paso Hall Briscoe Cochran 51 - 56 Donley Swisher Castro Wheeler Collingsworth Randall Parmer 41 - 45 Gray Armstrong Terry Stonewall Lynn Garza Kent Kleberg Jim Brooks Zapata Hogg Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5 Year Sample Cameron 25 Percentage of Population with Drive Times Longer than 25 Minutes, Texas Census Tracts, 1990 and 2010* 1990 2010* 12 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 decennial census and *American Community Survey, 2008-2012 5 Year Sample. Percentage of Families Whose Income in the Past 12 Months is Below the Poverty Level, Texas 2006-2012 15.0% 14.4% 14.5% 14.0% 14.0% 13.5% 13.8% 13.4% 13.3% 13.0% 12.8% 12.4% 12.5% 12.0% 11.5% 11.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year sample, 2006-2012 2010 2011 2012 27 Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050 55 50 Millions 45 Zero Migration 0.5 Migration 1.0 Migration 40 35 30 25 20 Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections 28 Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050 24 20 16 NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Other Millions 12 8 4 0 Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections , Half 2000-2010 Migration Scenario 29 Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, Legend Legend 2010-2050 tl_2010_48_county10 tl_2010_48_county10 F5 F6 -6,200 - 0 LT 0% 1 - 2,000 0-40% 2,001 - 10,000 41-100% 10,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 1,000,000 101-250% 251-500% 1,000,001 -3,480,000 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario 15 Texas Population Change by Age Group, 2010-2050 Age Male 2050 Male 2010 Female 2010 Female 2050 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 05-09 Under 5 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections, Half 2000 to 2010 Migration Scenario 1,500,000 Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, Texas 35.0% 31.3% Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 30.0% 23.8% 25.0% 2011 ACS 29.9% 2030 Constant 2011 % 24.0% 20.1% 20.0% 15.0% 18.7% 18.1% 15.0% 9.8% 10.0% 9.3% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree These should be going UP 32 Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas 40.0% 34.3% 35.0% 2011 ACS Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 31.3% 2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend) 30.0% 23.8% 25.0% 22.1% 20.4% 20.1% 20.0% 15.0% 15.0% 11.8% 11.4% 9.8% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree These should be going UP 33 Summary • Population continues to grow quickly though growth is geographically unequal. • Population growth is being driven by Hispanic population. • The future Texas labor force will be largely Hispanic. • Hispanics tend to have lower levels of educational attainment than other groups. • Geographic distribution of industries and occupations is variable. • Demographic and infrastructure challenges may have serious implications for future Texas economy. 34 Demographics & Destiny 35 Contact Lila Valencia, Ph.D. Office: (512) 463-8390 Email: [email protected] Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us Twitter: @TexasDemography 36