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Demographic Characteristics
and Trends in Texas and North
Texas: Population and
Infrastructure
Plano Chamber of
Commerce
April 1, 2015
Austin, Texas
Total Population and Components of Population Change
in Texas, 1950-2014
Year*
Population
Numeric
Change
--
Annual
Percent
Change
1950
7,711,194
--
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
2.4
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
1.7
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
2.7
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
2.0
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
2.3
2010
25,145,561
4,293,741
2.1
2012
26,060,796
915,235
1.8
2013
26,448,193
387,397
1.4
2014
26,956,958
451,321
1.7
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year.
Values for 2012 and 2014 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
2
Texas Population Growth 1950-2010
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
1950
1960
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
County Population Change, Texas,
1950-2010
1960
1950
1980
1970
2000
1990
2010
Total Population by
County
Estimated Change of the Total Population by
County, Texas, 2010 to 2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.
5
Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by
County, Texas, 2010 to 2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.
6
30% of the top 40 fastest growing counties in the
United States are in Texas, 2013 to 2014
U.S.
Rank
5
6
9
12
13
14
15
21
23
31
32
35
36
37
Geography
Population Estimate
Hays County, Texas
Fort Bend County, Texas
Comal County, Texas
Andrews County, Texas
Montgomery County, Texas
Williamson County, Texas
Kendall County, Texas
Ward County, Texas
Denton County, Texas
Collin County, Texas
Aransas County, Texas
Rockwall County, Texas
Waller, County
Ector County, Texas
2013
176,483
654,561
118,891
16,808
499,818
471,225
37,469
11,245
729,152
858,711
24,299
85,290
45,484
149,522
2014
185,025
685,345
123,694
17,477
518,947
489,250
38,880
11,625
753,363
885,241
24,972
87,809
46,820
153,904
Change, 2013 to 2014
Number
8,542
30,784
4,803
669
19,129
18,025
1,411
380
24,211
26,530
743
2,519
1,336
4,382
Percent
4.8
4.7
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
Counties in bold had growth associated with oil and gas extraction.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimates
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More than 1/4 of U.S. counties in the top 40
for numeric growth are in Texas, 2013-2014
U.S.
Rank
Geography
Population Estimate
Change, 2013 to 2014
2014
4,441,370
Number
88,618
Percent
2.0
1
Harris County, Texas
2013
4,352,752
6
Bexar County, Texas
1,822,154
1,855,866
33,712
1.9
8
Dallas County, Texas
2,486,083
2,518,638
32,555
1.3
10
Tarrant County, Texas
1,913,943
1,945,360
31,417
1.6
11
Fort Bend County, Texas
654,561
685,345
30,784
4.7
12
Travis County, Texas
1,122,748
1,151,145
28,397
2.5
14
Collin County, Texas
858,711
885,241
26,530
3.1
16
27
31
Denton County, Texas
Montgomery County, Texas
Williamson County, Texas
729,152
499,818
471,225
753,363
518,947
489,250
24,211
19,129
18,025
3.3
3.8
3.8
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Hidalgo County
818,942
831,073
12,060
1.5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimates
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Components of Population Change by Percent
in Texas, 1950-2010
Migration
Natural Increase
10.5%
13.3%
34.1%
58.5%
89.5%
50.3%
46.3%
49.7%
53.7%
1990s
2000s
86.7%
65.9%
41.5%
1950s
1960s
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
1970s
1980s
Estimated Number of Net Migrants by
County, Texas, 2013 to 2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.
10
Net Migration
Percent of 2013-2014
Population Change
from Net Migration
Ft. Worth
Dallas
Midland
Austin
Houston
San Antonio
11
Number of Annual Immigrants Admitted to the
United States, FY 1820-2012
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
1820
1825
1830
1835
1840
1845
1850
1855
1860
1865
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
0
Fiscal Year
Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security 2013
Number of Non-Citizen Immigrants by World Area of Birth in the
Top 5 Immigration Receiving States, 2007-2011
10,957
22,721
Illinois
7,054
3,884
59,220
Florida
15,651
11,730
11,002
30,532
40,835
New York
17,403
Latin America
10,045
Asia
61,418
Texas
30,982
8,331
Europe
Africa and Other
8,814
56,831
100,835
California
18,766
11,660
Source: 5-Year ACS PUMS 2007-2011
Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas from Mexico,
India, China, and All Other Countries, 2005-2012
China
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
11.7%
6.1%
3.9%
37.1%
8.6%
6.5%
6.0%
1.3% 6.9%
4.2%
India
5.8%
45.4%
39.4%
39.5%
49.1%
7.0%
51.3%
2.4%
5.7%
54.9%
Source: 1-Year ACS PUMS 2005-2012
All Others
45.1%
42.1%
48.1%
52.3%
2.5%
0.8% 5.3%
Mexico
56.8%
40.9%
39.2%
36.9%
37.1%
Inflows to Texas from Top 10 Sending States,
2013
Top 10 Senders,
Numerically
California
Florida
Oklahoma
Louisiana
Illinois
New Mexico
Georgia
New York
Arizona
Colorado
66,318
32,619
29,169
29,042
28,900
22,695
19,988
19,935
19,224
18,979
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State to State Flows 2013; Inflows to Texas
Top 10 Senders,
Percentage-wise
New Mexico
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Wyoming
Colorado
California
Arizona
Kansas
Mississippi
30%
29%
29%
22%
17%
11%
11%
11%
10%
10%
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Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004-2014
Washington
320,000
New York
550,000
California
North
Carolina
810,000
340,000
Texas
2,180,000
Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004-2014
Percentage of Total
U.S. Job Gains
Attributable to each
State
Texas
29%
11%
California
7%
4% 4%
New York
North Carolina
Washington
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
2000 and 2010
2000
2010
Hispanic
or Latino
32%
Hispanic
or Latino
38%
NH
White
53%
NH
Other
4% NH Black
11%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
NH
Other
6%
NH
White
45%
NH Black
11%
0
Age
Under 1 year
4 years
8 years
12 years
16 years
20 years
24 years
28 years
32 years
36 years
40 years
44 years
48 years
52 years
56 years
60 years
64 years
68 years
72 years
76 years
80 years
84 years
88 years
92 years
96 years
100 to 104…
Population
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and
Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
250000
200000
White (non-Hispanic)
150000
Hispanic
100000
50000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
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Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Male White, Non-Hispanic
Female White, Non-Hispanic
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
20
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Male Hispanic
Male Black, Non-Hispanic
Male Asian, Non-Hispanic
Male Other, Non Hispanic
Female Hispanic
Female Black, Non-Hispanic
Female Asian, Non-Hispanic
Female Other, Non Hispanic
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
21
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Male White, Non-Hispanic
Male Hispanic
Male Black, Non-Hispanic
Male Asian, Non-Hispanic
Male Other, Non Hispanic
Female White, Non-Hispanic
Female Hispanic
Female Black, Non-Hispanic
Female Asian, Non-Hispanic
Female Other, Non Hispanic
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
22
200,000
Migration to Collin County, 2005-2010
23
Inflows to Collin County from Top Sending
Regions, 2013
Top 10 Sending Counties, 2013
Dallas County, TX
15,101
Denton County, TX
Top 10 Sending States, 2013
California
3,140
5,647
Florida
2,223
Asia
3,513
Oklahoma
1,177
Tarrant County, TX
2,190
Louisiana
1,061
1,046
Harris County, TX
857
Illinois
Los Angeles County, CA
813
New York
706
Grayson County, TX
668
Arizona
684
Bexar County, TX
658
Colorado
625
Africa
592
Pennsylvania
612
Hillsborough County, FL
574
Virginia
563
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County to County Flows, 2013
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Percent of the population aged 65 years and older,
census tracts, 2007-2011
Percent aged 65 and older
Denton
McKinney
0% - 10%
Frisco
Fairview
11% - 15%
Allen
Plano
16% - 20%
21% - 30%
31% - 79%
Rowlett
Fort
Worth
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American
Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 20072011.
25
Percent of population aged 25 years and older with
high school degree or higher, census tracts,
2007-2011
Percent high school graduate or higher
16% - 50%
Denton
McKinney
51% - 65%
Frisco
Fairview
66% - 80%
Allen
81% - 90%
Plano
91% - 100%
Rowlett
Fort
Worth
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American
Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 20072011.
26
Percent of housing units built in 2005 and later,
census tracts, 2007-2011
Built 2005 or later
Denton
0% - 10%
McKinney
11% - 20%
Frisco
Fairview
Allen
21% - 30%
Plano
31% - 50%
51% - 100%
Rowlett
Fort
Worth
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American
Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 20072011.
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Percent of the population that is foreign born, census
tracts, 2007-2011
Percent Foreign born
Denton
0% - 10%
McKinney
11% - 20%
Frisco
Fairview
Allen
21% - 30%
Plano
31% - 40%
41% - 75%
Rowlett
Fort
Worth
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American
Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 20072011.
28
Percent of the population aged 5 years and older who
speak a language other than English at home, census
tracts, 2007-2011
Denton
Language other than English
McKinney
Frisco
0% - 20%
Fairview
Allen
21% - 35%
Plano
36% - 50%
51% - 75%
Rowlett
76% - 100%
Fort
Worth
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American
Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 20072011.
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Travel Time to Work
1990
2012
Percentage of Workers
with Drive Times
Longer than 25 Mins.
Mean travel time to work (minutes), census tracts,
2007-2011
Denton
McKinney
Frisco
Mean travel time to work (minutes)
Fairview
Allen
5 - 20
Plano
21 - 25
26 - 35
Rowlett
36 - 60
61 - 110
Fort
Worth
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American
Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 20072011.
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Projected Population Growth in Texas,
2010-2050
55
50
Millions
45
Zero Migration
0.5 Migration
1.0 Migration
40
35
30
25
20
Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections
32
Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas,
2010-2050
24
20
16
NH White
NH Black
Hispanic
NH Other
Millions
12
8
4
0
Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections , Half 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
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Texas Population Change by Age Group,
2010-2050
Age
Male 2050
Male 2010
Female 2010
Female 2050
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
05-09
Under 5
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections, Half 2000 to 2010 Migration Scenario
1,500,000
Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor
Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity –
High School Graduates and Above
100%
95%
90%
85%
White
80%
Black
75%
Hispanic
70%
Other
65%
60%
55%
50%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by
Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates,
Texas
35.0%
31.3%
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force
30.0%
23.8%
25.0%
2011 ACS
29.9%
2030 Constant 2011 %
24.0%
20.1%
20.0%
15.0%
18.7%
18.1%
15.0%
9.8%
10.0%
9.3%
5.0%
0.0%
Less than High School
High School or
Equivalent
Some College /
Associate Degree
Educational Attainment
These should be going DOWN
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.
Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate or
Professional Degree
These should be going UP
36
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by
Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended
Rates, Texas
40.0%
34.3%
35.0%
2011 ACS
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force
31.3%
2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend)
30.0%
23.8%
25.0%
22.1%
20.4%
20.1%
20.0%
15.0%
15.0%
11.8%
11.4%
9.8%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Less than High School
High School or
Equivalent
Some College /
Associate Degree
Educational Attainment
These should be going DOWN
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.
Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate or
Professional Degree
These should be going UP
37
Summary
• Population continues to grow quickly though growth is
geographically unequal.
• Population growth is being driven by Hispanic population.
• The future Texas labor force will be largely Hispanic.
• Hispanics tend to have lower levels of educational attainment
than other groups.
• Geographic distribution of industries and occupations is
variable.
• Demographic and infrastructure challenges may have serious
implications for future Texas economy.
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Demographics & Destiny
39
Contact
Lila Valencia, Ph.D.
Office: (512) 463-8390
Email: [email protected]
Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us
Twitter: @TexasDemography
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