Transcript osd.state.tx.us

Texas Population Characteristics,
Trends, and Projections
Texas State Agency
Business Administrators
Association
June 5, 2014
San Marcos, Texas
Growing States, 2000-2010
2000
Population*
United States
2010
Population*
Numerical
Change
2000-2010
Percent
Change
2000-2010
281,421,906
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7%
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6%
California
33,871,648
37,253,956
3,382,308
10.0%
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
2,818,932
17.6%
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
1,501,200
18.3%
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,535,483
1,486,170
18.5%
Arizona
5,130,632
6,392,017
1,261,385
24.6%
65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth
of the Hispanic population
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.
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Total Population and Components of
Population Change in Texas, 1950-2012
Percent Change
Due to
Year*
Population
Numerical
Change
--
Annual
Percent
Change
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
--
--
--
1950
7,711,194
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
2.4
93.91
6.09
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
1.7
86.74
13.26
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
2.7
41.58
58.42
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
2.0
65.85
34.15
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
2.3
49.65
50.35
2010
25,145,561
4,293,741
2.1
54.94
45.06
2012
26,060,796
915,235
1.8
52.05
47.95
2013
26,448,193
387,397
1.4
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as
estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
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Legend
Total Estimated Population by County, 2012
POPESTIMATE2012
71-10,000
10,001-50,000
50,001-100,000
100,001-500,000
500,001-1,000,000
1,000,001-4,253,700
Along and east of I-35:
40% of land
86% of population
92% of population growth (2011-2012)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates
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Legend
Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to 2012
tl_2010_48_county10
popchg4201072012
LT 0
1-1,000
1,001-20,000
96 counties lost
population over the
two year period
20,001-80,000
80,001-161,252
Of counties that lost population
90% had net out migration
47% had natural decline
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage.
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The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas
Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012
Percent
Increase
1.
Midland, Texas
4.6
2.
Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky.
3.7
3.
Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla.
3.6
4.
The Villages, Fla.
3.4
5.
Odessa, Texas
3.4
6.
Jacksonville, N.C.
3.3
7.
Austin-Round Rock, Texas
3.0
8.
Casper, Wyo.
3.0
9.
Columbus, Ga.-Ala.
2.9
10.
Manhattan, Kan.
2.8
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
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The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric
Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012
Numeric
Increase
1.
Harris, Texas
80,005
2.
Los Angeles, Calif.
73,764
3.
Maricopa, Ariz.
73,644
4.
Dallas, Texas
45,827
5.
San Diego, Calif.
38,880
6.
King, Wash.
35,838
7.
Travis, Texas
34,381
8.
Orange, Calif.
34,017
9.
Tarrant, Texas
32,997
10.
Clark, Nev.
32,833
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013
7
millions
Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant
Population in Texas, 1990-2012
Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, May Have Reversed, www.pewresearch.org/hispanic
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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas Economic Indicators, February 2014
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Unemployment rate (percent) for Texas and
the United States, 2007-2013
12
10
9.6
9.3
8.9
8.2
8
7.5
8.1
7.9
7.4
6.8
6.3
5.8
6
4.4 4.6
4.9
4
2
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
Texas
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Local area Unemployment Statistics Program, 2014.
2011
2012
2013
United States
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Percentage of Families Whose Income in the Past 12 Months is
Below the Poverty Level, Texas 2006-2012
15.0%
14.4%
14.5%
14.0%
14.0%
13.5%
13.8%
13.4%
13.3%
13.0%
12.8%
12.4%
12.5%
12.0%
11.5%
11.0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year samples, 2006-2012
2010
2011
2012
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Household Income and Benefits, Texas, 2007-2012
100.0%
7.5%
9.1%
90.0%
GT $149K
80.0%
40.3%
70.0%
41.7%
60.0%
$50-149k
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
38.3%
35.9%
$15-49k
20.0%
10.0%
13.8%
0.0%
2007
13.3%
2008
2009
2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year samples, 2007-2012
2011
LT $15k
2012
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Median Household Income (dollars), Texas,
2006-2012
52,000
51,000
50,000
49,000
48,000
47,000
46,000
45,000
44,000
43,000
42,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year sample, 2006-2012
2010
2011
2012
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Outstanding State Debt for 10 Most
Populous States, 2013
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$-
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Note: Texas debt outstanding from the Census Bureau differs from that reported by the Texas
Bond Review Board. Population figures are 2013 Census estimates.
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State of Texas Debt Per Capita Outstanding at Fiscal Year End: 10-Year Trend
$1,800
$1,600
$1,600
$1,637
$1,596
$1,646
$1,492
$1,381
$1,400
$1,243
$1,200
$1,101
$1,121
2004
2005
$1,154
Dollars
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Sources: Texas Bond Review Board, U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Some debt issued before 2006 may not be reflected. Reflects debt in 2013 dollars divided by estimated population in the relevant year. Texas debt outstanding from the Texas Bond Review
Board differs from that reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Some of this debt may be self-supporting, that is, paid in whole or in part with dedicated non-tax revenue, even when backed by a pledge of
general revenue
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Percent of Population Born in Texas,
Counties, 2008-2012
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
PctNativeTXN
Dallam
Hansford
Lipscomb
Sherman
Ochiltree
45-55%
Hartley
Moore
Roberts Hemphill
Hutchinson
56-60%
Oldham
Potter Carson Gray Wheeler
61-70%
71-80%
81-91%
El Paso
Hudspeth
Deaf
Smith
Armstrong
Randall
Donley Collingsworth
Briscoe
Parmer Castro Swisher
Hall Childress
Hardeman
Wilbarger
Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle
Wichita
Foard
Clay
Hockley
Lamar Red
Montague Grayson
Archer
King
Knox
Baylor
Cochran
Lubbock Crosby
Cooke
Dickens
Fannin Delta River Bowie
Haskell
Titus
Young Jack
Wise Denton Collin Hunt
Yoakum
Franklin Morris
Lynn Garza Kent Stonewall Throckmorton
Terry
Hopkins Camp Cass
Tarrant Rockwall Rains Wood
Palo
Jones
Gaines Dawson
Dallas
Upshur Marion
Shackelford
Pinto Parker
Borden Scurry Fisher
Van
Stephens
Kaufman
Gregg Harrison
Hood Johnson
Nolan
Zandt
Smith
Ellis
Howard Mitchell
Andrews
Callahan Eastland Somervell
Rusk
Martin
Taylor
Henderson
Panola
Erath
Navarro
Hill
Cherokee
Runnels
Comanche Bosque
Midland Glasscock Coke
Loving Winkler
Anderson
Coleman
Ector
Shelby
Freestone
Hamilton
Sterling
Brown
Culberson
Nacogdoches Sabine
McLennan Limestone
Ward Crane
Tom
Mills
Angelina San
Reagan
Coryell
Irion Green Concho
Leon Houston
Upton
Falls
Augustine
Reeves
McCulloch San Lampasas
Trinity
Jasper
Bell
Saba
Robertson Madison
Burnet
Schleicher Menard
Jeff
Polk Tyler Newton
Milam
Pecos
Walker
Crockett
Mason Llano
Brazos
San
Davis
Williamson
Sutton
Kimble
Burleson Grimes Jacinto
Hardin
Lee
Gillespie Blanco Travis
Montgomery
Washington
Terrell
Orange
Kerr
Waller
Val
Hays Bastrop
Liberty
Edwards
Presidio
Kendall
Austin
Jefferson
Brewster
Verde
Harris
Caldwell Fayette
Real
Comal
Bandera
Chambers
Fort
Guadalupe
Colorado
Bexar
Galveston
Bend
Gonzales Lavaca
Kinney Uvalde Medina
Wharton Brazoria
Wilson DeWitt
Jackson
Karnes
Maverick Zavala
Frio Atascosa
Victoria
Matagorda
Goliad
McMullen
Calhoun
La
Dimmit
Live Bee Refugio
Salle
Oak
San Aransas
Jim Patricio
Wells
Nueces
Webb
Duval
Kleberg
Zapata Jim Brooks
Kenedy
Hogg
Starr
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012
Willacy
Hidalgo
Cameron
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Percent of Population that is Foreign
Born, Texas Counties, 2008-2012
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
PctFB
0-5%
6-10%
11-20%
21-30%
31-41%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012
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Numeric change in Hispanic population,
Numeric Change Hispanic 2000-2010
by county, 2000-2010
nch_hsp0010
-1,200 - 0
1 - 1,000
1,001 - 5,000
5,001 - 15,000
15,001 - 25,000
25,001 - 56,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
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Legend
Percent Hispanic, Texas Counties, 2007-2011
tl_2013_us_state
PCT HISP 11 5YR
DP5_HC03_VC82
0-10%
11-20%
2-40%
41-75%
76-99%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2007-2011
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Numeric change in Asian population, by
county, 2000-2010
nch_asi0010
Numeric Change Asian 2000-2010
-198 - 0
1 - 500
501 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 77,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
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Percent of the population age 5 and over that speaks Spanish at
home and speaks English less than very well, Texas Counties, 20082012
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
PctSpanEngLTVW
0-5%
5.1-10%
10.1-20%
20.1-35%
35.1-50%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012
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Percent of the population age 5 and over that speaks a language
other than English at home, Texas Counties, 2008-2012
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
PCTLngOthrEng
0-10%
11-20%
21-40%
41-60%
61-96%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012
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Percent of Households with at Least One Person Over
the Age of 64 Years, Texas Counties, 2008-2012
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
PctHHGT64
13-20%
Dallam
Hansford
Lipscomb
Sherman
Ochiltree
Hartley
Moore
Roberts Hemphill
Hutchinson
Oldham
Potter Carson Gray Wheeler
Deaf
Smith
Armstrong
Randall
Donley Collingsworth
Briscoe
Parmer Castro Swisher
Hall Childress
Hardeman
Wilbarger
Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle
Wichita
Foard
Clay
Hockley
Lamar Red
Montague Grayson
King Knox Baylor Archer
Cochran
Lubbock Crosby
Cooke
Dickens
Fannin Delta River Bowie
Haskell
Titus
Young Jack
Wise Denton Collin Hunt
Yoakum
Franklin Morris
Lynn Garza Kent Stonewall Throckmorton
Terry
Hopkins Camp Cass
Tarrant Rockwall Rains Wood
Palo
Jones
Dallas
Gaines Dawson
Upshur Marion
Shackelford
Pinto Parker
Borden Scurry Fisher
Kaufman Van
Stephens
Gregg Harrison
Zandt
Hood Johnson
Nolan
Smith
Ellis
Andrews
Callahan Eastland
Howard Mitchell
Rusk
Somervell
Taylor
Henderson
Martin
Panola
Erath
Navarro
Hill
Cherokee
Runnels
Comanche
Coke
Bosque
Midland Glasscock
Loving Winkler
Anderson
Coleman
Ector
Shelby
Freestone
Hamilton
Sterling
Brown
Culberson
Nacogdoches Sabine
McLennan Limestone
Ward Crane
Tom
Mills
Angelina San
Reagan
Coryell
Houston
Concho
Irion Green
Leon
Upton
Falls
Augustine
Reeves
McCulloch San Lampasas
Jasper
Bell
Saba
Robertson Madison Trinity
Burnet
Schleicher
Menard
Jeff
Polk Tyler Newton
Milam
Pecos
Walker
Crockett
Mason
Llano
Brazos
San
Davis
Williamson
Sutton
Kimble
Burleson Grimes Jacinto
Hardin
Lee
Gillespie Blanco Travis
Montgomery
Washington
Terrell
Orange
Kerr
Waller
Val
Hays Bastrop
Liberty
Edwards
Presidio
Kendall
Austin
Jefferson
Brewster
Fayette
Verde
Harris
Caldwell
Real
Comal
Bandera
Chambers
Fort
Guadalupe
Colorado
Bexar
Galveston
Bend
Gonzales
Lavaca
Kinney Uvalde Medina
Wharton Brazoria
Wilson
DeWitt
Jackson
Maverick Zavala
Frio Atascosa Karnes
Victoria
Matagorda
Goliad
McMullen
Calhoun
La
Dimmit
Live Bee Refugio
Salle
Oak
San Aransas
Jim Patricio
Wells Nueces
Webb
Duval
Kleberg
21-30%
31-40%
41-50%
51-53%
El Paso
Hudspeth
Zapata Jim Brooks
Kenedy
Hogg
Starr
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012
Willacy
Hidalgo
Cameron
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Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
2000 and 2010
2000
2010
Hispanic
or Latino
32%
Hispanic
or Latino
38%
NH
White
53%
NH
Other
4% NH Black
11%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
NH
Other
6%
NH
White
45%
NH Black
11%
0
Age
Under 1 year
4 years
8 years
12 years
16 years
20 years
24 years
28 years
32 years
36 years
40 years
44 years
48 years
52 years
56 years
60 years
64 years
68 years
72 years
76 years
80 years
84 years
88 years
92 years
96 years
100 to 104…
Population
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and
Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
250000
200000
White (non-Hispanic)
150000
Hispanic
100000
50000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
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Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
NH White Male
NH White Female
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
30
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Hispanic Male
NH Black Male
NH Asian Male
NH Other Male
Hispanic Female
NH Black Female
NH Asian Female
NH Other Female
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
31
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
NH White Male
Hispanic Male
NH Black Male
NH Asian Male
NH Other Male
NH White Female
Hispanic Female
NH Black Female
NH Asian Female
NH Other Female
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
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200,000
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050
Migration Scenarios
60,000,000
Zero
55,000,000
.5 of 2000-2010
50,000,000
2000-2010
45,000,000
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
2010
2015
2020
2025
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
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Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
NH-White
NH-Black
Hispanic
NH-Other
5,000,000
0
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
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Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011
Level of Educational
Attainment
High school diploma or
equivalency or greater
Bachelors or greater
Percent of
persons aged
25 years and
older
81.1%
26.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-year Sample, 2011.
State
Ranking
48/49/50
(tied with CA
and MS)
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35
Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the
Labor Force (aged 25 years and more), Texas, 2009
3%
9%
19%
15%
6%
8%
67%
71%
Less Than High School
College and Greater
Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer. 36
Trends in Educational Attainment in Texas by
Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above
100%
95%
90%
85%
White
80%
Black
75%
Hispanic
70%
Other
65%
60%
55%
50%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011
2010
2011
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational
Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, and 2030 Using
Trended Rates, Texas
40.0%
34.3%
35.0%
2011 ACS
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force
31.3%
2030 Constant
29.9%
30.0%
2030 Trended
25.0%
23.8%
24.0%
22.1%
20.4%
20.0%
20.1%
18.7%
18.1%
15.0%
15.0%
11.8%
11.4%
9.8%
10.0%
9.3%
5.0%
0.0%
Less than High School
High School or Equivalent
Some College / Associate
Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate or Professional
Degree
Educational Attainment
These should be going DOWN
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.
Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario
These should be going UP
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Demographics and Destiny
39
Contact
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530
Email: [email protected]
Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us
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