Transcript Texas Association of Mutual Insurance Companies 10-7-10

Texas
Population Estimates and Projections for
LCRA Counties
LCRA
December 18, 2013
Austin, TX
1
Legend
Total Estimated Population by County, 2012
POPESTIMATE2012
71-10,000
10,001-50,000
50,001-100,000
100,001-500,000
500,001-1,000,000
1,000,001-4,253,700
Along and east of I-35:
40% of land
86% of population
92% of population growth (2011-2012)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates
2
Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to
2010
Legend
co48_d00
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010
-3,200 - 0
79 counties lost
population over the
decade
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 700,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
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Legend
Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to 2012
tl_2010_48_county10
popchg4201072012
LT 0
1-1,000
1,001-20,000
96 counties lost
population over the
two year period
20,001-80,000
80,001-161,252
Of counties that lost population
90% had net out migration
47% had natural decline
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage.
4
The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas
Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012
Percent
Increase
1.
Midland, Texas
4.6
2.
Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky.
3.7
3.
Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla.
3.6
4.
The Villages, Fla.
3.4
5.
Odessa, Texas
3.4
6.
Jacksonville, N.C.
3.3
7.
Austin-Round Rock, Texas
3.0
8.
Casper, Wyo.
3.0
9.
Columbus, Ga.-Ala.
2.9
10.
Manhattan, Kan.
2.8
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
5
The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric
Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012
Numeric
Increase
1.
Harris, Texas
80,005
2.
Los Angeles, Calif.
73,764
3.
Maricopa, Ariz.
73,644
4.
Dallas, Texas
45,827
5.
San Diego, Calif.
38,880
6.
King, Wash.
35,838
7.
Travis, Texas
34,381
8.
Orange, Calif.
34,017
9.
Tarrant, Texas
32,997
10.
Clark, Nev.
32,833
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013
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Estimated population change 2010-2012, LCRA
Counties
Travis
Williamson
Hays
Guadalupe
Comal
Kendall
Wilson
Waller
Burnet
Caldwell
Bastrop
Lampasas
Washington
DeWitt
Gillespie
Gonzales
Lavaca
Austin
Kerr
Blanco
Goliad
Fayette
Burleson
Real
Bandera
McCulloch
Menard
Mason
Lee
Kimble
Mills
San Saba
Colorado
Llano
Brown
(10,000)
Natural Increase
Net Migration
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
7
80,000
Estimated population change 2010-2012, LCRA
Counties
Travis
Williamson
Hays
Guadalupe
Comal
Kendall
Wilson
Waller
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
8
80,000
Estimated population change 2010-2012, LCRA
Counties
Burnet
Caldwell
Bastrop
Lampasas
Washington
DeWitt
Gillespie
Gonzales
Lavaca
Austin
Kerr
Blanco
Goliad
Fayette
Burleson
Real
Bandera
McCulloch
Menard
Mason
Lee
Kimble
Mills
San Saba
Colorado
Llano
Brown
(600)
Scale on
previous
slide went
to 80,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
(400)
(200)
-
200
400
600
9
800
King
Knox
Baylor
Clay
Archer
Montague
Jack
Cooke
Wise
Grayson
Fannin
Delta
Projected population change 2010-2030, LCRA Counties, 0.5
Migration Scenario
Stonewall
Haskell
Throckmorton
Young
Denton
Collin
Rains Wood
Rockwall
Fisher
Jones
Shackelford
Parker
Palo Pinto
Stephens
Tarrant
Dallas
Kaufman
Hood
Nolan
Taylor
Johnson
Eastland
Callahan
Numeric change .5
-99-0
Tom Green
Freestone
McLennan
Mills
Limestone
Coryell
Concho
McCulloch
1-20,000
Anderson
Hamilton
Numerica Change 2010-2030 .5 Migration
Leon
Falls
Lampasas
San Saba
Bell
20,001-75,000
125,001-325,000
Robertson
Schleicher Menard
75,001-125,000
Mason
Sutton
Burnet
Travis
Blanco
Kendall
Fayette
Caldwell
Comal
Bexar
Uvalde
Montgomery
Bastrop
Austin
Lavaca
Medina
Wharton
Brazoria
DeWitt
Frio
Atascosa
Jackson
Karnes
Victoria
Maverick
Matagorda
Goliad
Dimmit
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage
Population Projections
Harris
Fort Bend
Gonzales
Wilson
Zavala
Waller
Colorado
Guadalupe
Kinney
Grimes
Lee
Hays
Bandera
Walker
Washington
Kerr
Real
Madison
Brazos
Williamson
Burleson
Gillespie
Houston
Milam
Llano
Kimble
Edwards
Cherokee
Bosque
Brown
Coleman
Navarro
Hill
Comanche
Runnels
Ellis
Henderson
Legend
Coke
Van Zandt
Somervell
Erath
Hopkins
Hunt
La Salle
McMullen Live Oak
Jim Wells
Bee
San Patricio
Calhoun
Refugio
Aransas
10
King
Knox
Baylor
Clay
Archer
Montague
Jack
Cooke
Wise
Grayson
Fannin
Delta
Projected population change 2010-2030, LCRA Counties, 1.0
Migration Scenario
Stonewall
Haskell
Throckmorton
Young
Denton
Collin
Rains Wood
Rockwall
Fisher
Jones
Shackelford
Parker
Palo Pinto
Stephens
Tarrant
Dallas
Kaufman
Hood
Nolan
Taylor
Johnson
Eastland
Callahan
Numeric Change 1
-55-0
Tom Green
Freestone
McLennan
Mills
Limestone
Coryell
Concho
McCulloch
1-20,000
Anderson
Hamilton
Numeric Change 2010-2030 1.0 Migration
Leon
Falls
Lampasas
San Saba
Bell
20,001-75,000
125,001-540,000
Mason
Sutton
Burnet
Kerr
Numerica Change 2010-2030
.5 Migration
Edwards
-99-0
Travis
Blanco
Bandera
Fayette
Caldwell
Comal
Bexar
Uvalde
Montgomery
Bastrop
Austin
Lavaca
Wharton
75,001-125,000
Wilson
Brazoria
DeWitt
Zavala
Percent change .5
Frio
Atascosa
Jackson
Karnes
Victoria
Maverick
Dimmit
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage
1-25%
Population Projections
Matagorda
Goliad
Percent Change 2010-2030 .5 Migration
-3-0%
Harris
Fort Bend
Gonzales
Medina
125,001-325,000
Waller
Colorado
Guadalupe
Kinney
Grimes
Washington
Kendall
1-20,000
Walker
Lee
Hays
Real
Madison
Brazos
Williamson
Burleson
Gillespie
Houston
Milam
Llano
Kimble
Numeric change .5
20,001-75,000
Robertson
Schleicher Menard
75,001-125,000
Cherokee
Bosque
Brown
Coleman
Navarro
Hill
Comanche
Runnels
Ellis
Henderson
Legend
Coke
Van Zandt
Somervell
Erath
Hopkins
Hunt
La Salle
McMullen Live Oak
Jim Wells
Bee
San Patricio
Calhoun
Refugio
Aransas
11
King
Knox
Baylor
Clay
Archer
Montague
Jack
Cooke
Wise
Grayson
Fannin
Delta
Projected percent population change 2010-2030, LCRA Counties,
0.5 Migration Scenario
Stonewall
Haskell
Throckmorton
Young
Denton
Collin
Rains Wood
Rockwall
Fisher
Jones
Shackelford
Parker
Palo Pinto
Stephens
Tarrant
Dallas
Kaufman
Hood
Nolan
Taylor
Johnson
Eastland
Callahan
Percent change .5
-3-0%
Tom Green
Freestone
McLennan
Mills
Limestone
Coryell
Concho
McCulloch
1-25%
Anderson
Hamilton
Percent Change 2010-2030 .5 Migration
Leon
Falls
Lampasas
San Saba
Bell
26-50%
75-82%
Robertson
Schleicher Menard
51-75%
Mason
Sutton
Burnet
Travis
Blanco
Kendall
Fayette
Caldwell
Comal
Bexar
Uvalde
Montgomery
Bastrop
Austin
Lavaca
Medina
Wharton
Brazoria
DeWitt
Frio
Atascosa
Jackson
Karnes
Victoria
Maverick
Matagorda
Goliad
Dimmit
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage
Population Projections
Harris
Fort Bend
Gonzales
Wilson
Zavala
Waller
Colorado
Guadalupe
Kinney
Grimes
Lee
Hays
Bandera
Walker
Washington
Kerr
Real
Madison
Brazos
Williamson
Burleson
Gillespie
Houston
Milam
Llano
Kimble
Edwards
Cherokee
Bosque
Brown
Coleman
Navarro
Hill
Comanche
Runnels
Ellis
Henderson
Legend
Coke
Van Zandt
Somervell
Erath
Hopkins
Hunt
La Salle
McMullen Live Oak
Jim Wells
Bee
San Patricio
Calhoun
Refugio
Aransas
12
King
Knox
Baylor
Clay
Archer
Montague
Jack
Cooke
Wise
Grayson
Fannin
Delta
Projected percent population change 2010-2030, LCRA Counties,
1.0 Migration Scenario
Stonewall
Haskell
Throckmorton
Young
Denton
Collin
Rains Wood
Rockwall
Fisher
Jones
Shackelford
Parker
Palo Pinto
Stephens
Tarrant
Dallas
Kaufman
Hood
Nolan
Taylor
Johnson
Eastland
Callahan
Percent change .5
-3-0%
Tom Green
Freestone
McLennan
Mills
Limestone
Coryell
Concho
McCulloch
1-25%
Anderson
Hamilton
Percent Change 2010-2030 .5 Migration
Leon
Falls
Lampasas
San Saba
Bell
26-50%
75-82%
Robertson
Schleicher Menard
51-75%
Mason
Sutton
Burnet
Travis
Blanco
Kendall
Fayette
Caldwell
Comal
Bexar
Uvalde
Montgomery
Bastrop
Austin
Lavaca
Medina
Wharton
Brazoria
DeWitt
Frio
Harris
Fort Bend
Gonzales
Wilson
Zavala
Waller
Colorado
Guadalupe
Kinney
Grimes
Lee
Hays
Bandera
Walker
Washington
Kerr
Real
Madison
Brazos
Williamson
Burleson
Gillespie
Houston
Milam
Llano
Kimble
Edwards
Cherokee
Bosque
Brown
Coleman
Navarro
Hill
Comanche
Runnels
Ellis
Henderson
Legend
Coke
Van Zandt
Somervell
Erath
Hopkins
Hunt
Atascosa
Jackson
Karnes
Victoria
Maverick
Matagorda
Goliad
Dimmit
La Salle
McMullen Live Oak
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage
Population Projections
Jim Wells
Bee
San Patricio
Calhoun
Refugio
Aransas
13
Projected percent population change 2010-2030,
LCRA Counties, 0.5 and 1.0 migration scenarios
Hays
Williamson
Bastrop
Guadalupe
Comal
Waller
Kendall
Wilson
Caldwell
Austin
Burnet
Blanco
Travis
Gillespie
Bandera
Lampasas
Goliad
.5 Migration
Fayette
Kerr
Lee
1.0 Migration
Burleson
Washington
Gonzales
Llano
McCulloch
Colorado
Kimble
Mills
San Saba
De Witt
Mason
Brown
Real
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage
Population Projections
Lavaca
Menard
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
14180%
Projected population change 2010-2030, LCRA
Counties, 0.5 and 1.0 migration scenarios
Williamson
Travis
Hays
Guadalupe
Comal
Bastrop
Waller
Wilson
Kendall
Caldwell
Burnet
Austin
Kerr
Gillespie
Washington
Bandera
Fayette
Lampasas
Blanco
Gonzales
Burleson
Lee
Llano
Brown
Colorado
Goliad
De Witt
McCulloch
San Saba
Kimble
Mills
Lavaca
Mason
Real
Menard
-100000
0.5 Migation
1.0 Migration
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
15
Annualized projected percent change in households by tenure,
2010-2030, 0.5 migration scenario
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage
Population Projections
Llano
Mills
Mason
Annual change in
renter HH
Kimble
Annual change in
owner HH
De Witt
McCulloch
Kerr
Goliad
Washington
Bandera
Blanco
Lee
Travis
Kendall
Bastrop
Caldwell
Guadalupe
Hays
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
16
Annualized projected percent change in households by tenure,
2010-2030, 0.5 migration scenario
Llano
Real
Mills
Menard
Mason
Lavaca
Kimble
San Saba
De Witt
Colorado
McCulloch
Brown
Kerr
Gillespie
Goliad
Fayette
Washington
Burleson
Bandera
Gonzales
Blanco
Lampasas
Lee
Burnet
-0.4%
Annual change in renter
HHs
Annual change in owner
HHs
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
17
Annualized projected percent change in households by tenure,
2010-2030, 0.5 migration scenario
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage
Population Projections
Burnet
Travis
Austin
Annual change in
renter HHs
Kendall
Annual change in
owner HHs
Comal
Bastrop
Wilson
Caldwell
Waller
Guadalup
e
Williamso
n
Hays
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
18
King
Knox
Baylor
Clay
Archer
Montague
Jack
Cooke
Wise
Grayson
Fannin
Delta
Projected annual percent renter household change 2010-2030,
LCRA Counties, 0.5 Migration Scenario
Stonewall
Haskell
Throckmorton
Young
Denton
Collin
Rains Wood
Rockwall
Fisher
Jones
Shackelford
Parker
Palo Pinto
Stephens
Tarrant
Dallas
Kaufman
Hood
Nolan
Taylor
Johnson
Eastland
Callahan
tl_2010_48_county10
less than 0
Anderson
Freestone
Hamilton
AnnpctchrentHH
McLennan
Mills
Tom Green
Limestone
Coryell
Concho
McCulloch
0-1%
Leon
Falls
Lampasas
San Saba
Bell
1.1-1.5%
Robertson
Schleicher Menard
1.6-3.0%
Mason
3.1-4.1%
Sutton
Burnet
-0.002635 - 0.000000
Travis
Blanco
Bandera
Fayette
Caldwell
Comal
Bexar
Uvalde
Austin
Lavaca
Wharton
0.015001 - 0.030000
Wilson
Brazoria
DeWitt
Zavala
Frio
Atascosa
Jackson
Karnes
Victoria
tl_2010_48_county10
Maverick
Matagorda
Goliad
Dimmit
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage
Population Projections
Harris
Fort Bend
Gonzales
Medina
0.030001 - 0.042460
Waller
Colorado
Guadalupe
Kinney
Montgomery
Bastrop
Kendall
0.000001 - 0.010000
0.010001 - 0.015000
Grimes
Lee
Hays
Real
Walker
Washington
Kerr
Edwards
Madison
Brazos
Williamson
Burleson
Gillespie
Houston
Milam
Llano
Kimble
tl_2010_48_county10
AnnpctchownHH
Cherokee
Bosque
Brown
Coleman
Navarro
Hill
Comanche
Runnels
Ellis
Henderson
Legend
Coke
Van Zandt
Somervell
Erath
Hopkins
Hunt
La Salle
McMullen Live Oak
Jim Wells
Bee
San Patricio
Calhoun
Refugio
Aransas
19
King
Knox
Baylor
Clay
Archer
Montague
Cooke
Grayson
Fannin
Delta
Projected annual percent owner household change 2010-2030,
LCRA Counties, 0.5 Migration Scenario
Stonewall
Haskell
Throckmorton
Jack
Young
Wise
Denton
Collin
Rains Wood
Rockwall
Fisher
Jones
Shackelford
Parker
Palo Pinto
Stephens
Tarrant
Dallas
Kaufman
Hood
Nolan
Taylor
1.1-1.5%
Freestone
McLennan
Limestone
Coryell
Concho
0-1%
McCulloch
San Saba
Leon
Falls
Lampasas
Bell
Robertson
Schleicher Menard
1.6-3.0%
Mason
3.1-4.1%
Sutton
Burnet
Gillespie
-0.002635 - 0.000000
Travis
Blanco
Fayette
Caldwell
Comal
Bexar
Kinney
Uvalde
Wharton
Brazoria
DeWitt
0.030001 - 0.042460
Frio
Harris
Lavaca
Wilson
Zavala
Waller
Fort Bend
Gonzales
Medina
0.015001 - 0.030000
tl_2010_48_county10
Austin
Colorado
Guadalupe
0.010001 - 0.015000
Montgomery
Bastrop
Hays
Bandera
0.000001 - 0.010000
Grimes
Lee
Kendall
Real
Walker
Washington
Kerr
Edwards
Madison
Brazos
Williamson
Burleson
tl_2010_48_county10
Houston
Milam
Llano
Kimble
AnnpctchownHH
Cherokee
Anderson
Mills
Tom Green
Navarro
Hamilton
AnnpctchrentHH
less than 0
Henderson
Bosque
Brown
Coleman
Ellis
Hill
Comanche
Runnels
Van Zandt
Somervell
Erath
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10Coke
Johnson
Eastland
Callahan
Hopkins
Hunt
Atascosa
Jackson
Karnes
Victoria
Maverick
Matagorda
Goliad
Dimmit
La Salle
McMullen Live Oak
Bee
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage
Population Projections
Calhoun
Refugio
20
Jim Wells
San Patricio
Aransas
Demographics and Destiny
21
Contact
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530
Email: [email protected]
Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us
22