Transcript WWRP THORPEX Alan Dickinson Chair THORPEX ICSC and David Burridge THORPEX IPO WWRP WWRP THORPEX Priorities Global-to-regional influences on the evolution and predictability of weather systems Global observing-system design and demonstration Targeting and.

WWRP
THORPEX
Alan Dickinson
Chair THORPEX ICSC
and
David Burridge
THORPEX IPO
WWRP
WWRP
THORPEX Priorities
Global-to-regional influences on the
evolution and predictability of weather
systems
Global observing-system design and
demonstration
Targeting and assimilation of observations
Societal, economic, and environmental
benefits of improved forecasts
THORPEX Organisational Structure
WWRP
IPO/ICSC/EC
Regional Committees
Africa
Asia
Europe
North America
Southern Hemisphere
Predictability and Dynamical
Processes Working Group
Data Assimilation and
Observing Strategies
Working Group
Global Interactive
Forecasting System –
THORPEX Interactive
Grand Global Ensemble
Working Group
PDP WG
DAOS WG
GIFS-TIGGE WG
Collaboration between the PDP
Working Group and the WGNE
 The key area for collaboration was seen as model error and
model development and the ICSC and the WGNE agreed that
there should cross-representation between the PDP Working
Group and the WGNE.
WWRP
 To this end, Thomas Jung would represent the PDP Working
Group on the WGNE and Andy Brown would represent the
WGNE on the PDP Working Group.
 One of the first results of this collaboration was the joint
organisation of the PDP/WGNE Workshop on Model Errors (7-9
July, 2010).
WWRP
CASXV on WWRP-THORPEX
………… agreed that THORPEX has contributed substantively
to the advancement of Members needs and fostered a
tremendous sense of partnership and collaboration around the
world particularly through the following activities:
 Completion of three major field experiments, A-TREC, ETREC and T-PARC with its two experimental phases
 Activities to address regional prediction needs, such as the
assessment of targeted observations for extra-tropical and
tropical cyclones, THORPEX Africa, and THORPEX
involvement in the assessment of the forecast impacts of
additional observations over Africa taken as part of the
AMMA Project
 The development and execution of the IPY-THORPEX
cluster of projects focused on advancing numerical weather
prediction for polar regions;
 The development of the TIGGE database as a major
community resource with model
 Initiation of the Year Of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Project
WWRP
IMPACT OF TARGETED
OBSERVATIONS
 There is a consensus that extra-tropical targeted data
are about 2-3 times more valuable than the same
number of observations deployed randomly.
 Targeted observations aimed at improving forecasts of
tropical cyclone track have provided demonstrable
positive impact. The impact of targeted observations
aimed at improving forecasts of extra-tropical storms is
less clear to date.
 Sharan Majumdar to prepare a draft of the paper
during the next few months - The target should be for
a definitive draft agreed by the Working Group for the
next ICSC meeting..
T-NAWDEX
 THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact
Experiment
 Proposed at European THORPEX meeting by PDP Working
Group in 2006
 Strong interest from UK, France, Germany, Switzerland, Norway,
Canada, USA, ...
 Science focus on diabatic effects on North Atlantic weather
systems (dynamics and predictive skill)
WWRP
 Germany: HALO THORPEX Demo Mission (Dörnbrack et al.)
 UK: project DIAMET (Vaughan, Methven, Parker, Renfrew et al.)
 Germany: PANDOWAE research group (Jones et al.)
 Switzerland: ETH contribution (Wernli et al.)
TIGGE
A key component of THORPEX: a World Weather Research
WWRP
Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of
humanity
The TIGGE project has developed a database of global
ensemble forecasts collected in near real-time.
Objectives:
 Enhance collaboration on ensemble prediction,
both internationally and between operational
centres & universities.
 Facilitate research on ensemble prediction
methods, especially methods to combine
ensembles and to correct systematic errors
 Enable evolution towards a prototype operational
system, the “Global Interactive Forecast System”
WWRP
HYMEX: Main Scientific Topics
WWRP
Better understanding of the intense events:
processes and contribution to the trend
WWRP
THORPEX Working Groups
(Recent meetings)
Since 31 January 2010, the three THORPEX Working
Groups have met:
 GIFS TIGGE Working Group Eighth Meeting; WMO,
Geneva (22-24 February 2010)
 THORPEX ICSC PDP Working Group Third Meeting;
ETH, Zurich (5-7 July 2010) – this meeting was
followed by a Workshop on “Diagnosis of Model
Errors” (7-9 July 2010)
 THORPEX ICSC DAOS Working Group Third
Meeting; University of Québec at Montréal (UQAM)
Montréal (8-9 July 2010)
WWRP
GEO
THORPEX continues to support the development of the weather
element of the GEOSS. There are three main areas of activity
TIGGE and the development of a Global Interactive Forecast
System (GIFS) (WE-06-03)
THORPEX Africa (WE-09-01b)
Towards Enhanced Climate, Weather, Water and
Environmental Prediction (CL-09-01a); in this Task the main
activity at present is YOTC; however, it is hoped that the planned
sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction and polar projects will be
included in due course.
These three Tasks represent the most significant GEO weather
activities. Efforts continue to be made working through GEO to
improve funding levels and resources for these initiatives. A
consortium of European organisations is responding to an European
Union FP7 Call to further development of the TIGGE and the
GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI).
The IPY-THORPEX Cluster
10 individual projects
(see WMO Bulletin Oct. 2007)
WWRP
The objectives of the IPY-THORPEX Cluster were:
 Explore use of satellite data and optimised
observations to improve high impact weather forecasts
 Better understand physical/dynamical processes in
polar regions
 Achieve a better understanding of small scale weather
phenomena
 Utilise improved forecasts to the benefit of society, the
economy and the environment
WWRP
The International Project Concordiasi
Objectives of Concordiasi
 To improve the assimilation of satellite data over the southern



WWRP

polar region, with an emphasis on the data provided by the new
IASI sounder.
To improve understanding of the stratospheric ozone budget
through examination of the interaction of ozone observations at
flight level and stratospheric clouds, together with the improved
characterization of the polar vortex.
To evaluate the impact of better analyses and forecasts on ozone
profile simulations in chemical transport models.
To evaluate the impact of the large scale improvements on local
analyses and forecasts at Concordia.
To provide recommendations on the design of the global
observing system over the southern polar region by determining
the extent to which additional observations over Antarctica can
improve the prediction of high impact weather over lower latitudes.
New projects
WWRP
Polar Prediction project – “The Commission concurred with the
Executive Council Panel of Experts on Polar Observations, Research
and Services on the requirement for effective collaboration and
therefore recommended that any efforts to develop a future prediction
system include outcomes from the IPY-THORPEX cluster of projects
and from the planned THORPEX Legacy Project”
Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction – “….the Commission
requested the JSCs of the WWRP and the WCRP and also the
THORPEX ICSC to set up an appropriate collaborative structure to
carry out an international research initiative on sub-seasonal to
seasonal forecasting. It recommended that this is closely coordinated
with the present existing CBS infrastructure for long-range
forecasting (with centres producing long-range forecasts and regional
climate centres) and with the future developments in WMO climate
service delivery and the Global Framework for Climate Services
called for in the High-Level Declaration of WCC-3.”
An element of the WWRP
Workshop
“Improvement of Weather and
Environmental Prediction
in Polar Regions”
(6 to 8 October 2010, Met No, Oslo, Norway)
The outcome of this workshop was the establishment of a basis for an
IPY legacy project which is intended to provide a framework for
cooperative international research and development efforts to improve
high impact weather, climate, and environmental prediction capabilities
for the Polar Regions.
WWRP
Workshop
“Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction”
(1 to 3 December 2010, Met Office, Exeter, UK)
The main goals of this Workshop was to establish current capabilities
in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction, to identify high-priority
research topics and demonstration projects and to develop
recommendations for the establishment of an international research
project.
WWRP
MID-TERM REVIEW
The THORPEX Working Groups and
Regional Committees have been asked to
submit short summaries of recent
achievements, current challenges and
future plans.
 The IPO will then prepare a summary
paper for review by the THORPEX
community and eventually the ICSC and
the WWRP
WWRP
Future emphasis
 Basic issues of predictability and key dynamical
processes
 The required initial conditions and implied observational
coverage
 Strategies for observations targeting in critical situations
 Tackling the problem issues in data assimilation
especially at high resolution
 Handling of the tropics particularly organised convection,
tropical cyclones and extra-tropical transition and
interactions
 Polar weather
 Seamless prediction of weather and climate from days to
weeks and seasons