Transcript 4th THORPEX –Asia Science Workshop and 9th ARC meeting Recent Developments in the THORPEX Programme Jim Caughey, THORPEX IPO 31 October-3 November 2012, Kunming, China 1

4th THORPEX –Asia Science Workshop and
9th ARC meeting
Recent Developments in the THORPEX
Programme
Jim Caughey, THORPEX IPO
31 October-3 November 2012, Kunming, China
1
Research priorities and Structure
Research Priorities
 Global-to-regional influences on the evolution and predictability of weather
systems (by Predictability and Dynamic Processes WG)
 Global observing-system design and demonstration, Targeting and assimilation of
observations (by Data Assimilation and Observing System WG)
 Developing and testing global multi-model ensemble prediction systems and
developing prototype multi-model ensemble products (by GIFS-TIGGE WG)
Governance and Structure
 The Programme is overseen by an International Core Steering Committee (ICSC
and receives scientific guidance and direction from the WWRP Joint Scientific
Committee (JSC)
 The Programme is supported by a Trust Fund to which nations are invited to
contribute
 International Programme Office - focal point for the day to day operation
 Five Regional Committees
established for Asia, Africa, Europe, North America, and Southern Hemisphere
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Outline of presentation
 1. Mid –Term Review – MTR (programme successes
and achievements)
 2. Some recent activities of the Working Groups
 3. Beyond THORPEX – possible future arrangements
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THORPEX progress report
(Mid-Term Review - MTR)
History
 ICSC-8 requested the preparation of a Review capturing the main
successes and achievements of the programme.
 A first draft of the Review was presented at the ICSC-9 in 2011 and
the ICSC members asked to propose revisions and supply missing
material.
 The WWRP/JSC in April 2012 discussed the review and was asked to
provide further comments.
 A latest version of the review was presented to ICSC 10 and can be
found on the THORPEX website
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THORPEX MTR Achievements
Major real-time international observational programmes and
experiments have been completed:
 The Atlantic –TReC (A-TReC) field campaign was very successful
technically and has provided valuable datasets to test targeting
questions
 The T-PARC/TCS-08 was a major multi-national field campaign and
research initiative which addressed the shorter-range dynamics and
forecast skill of tropical cyclones/ typhoons over eastern Asia and the
western North Pacific and the downstream impact on the medium-range
dynamics and forecast skill of the eastern North Pacific and North
America. Has provided unique data sets from genesis to ET.
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Contd.,
International data bases (TIGGE) of near-real time global ensemble
predictions from ten prediction centres have been established and
the results provided for research by three archive centres (CMA,
ECMWF and NCAR).

Prototype multi-model ensemble products have been developed
including for tropical cyclone tracks and heavy precipitation.
 The TIGGE archives now provide a key research facility to enhance
cooperation between universities and the operational weather prediction
centres, with a focus on improving the forecasting of high-impact impact
weather.
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Contd.,
The THORPEX International Polar Year (IPY) cluster of projects
have made a major contribution to observing and NWP in Polar
Regions.
 The cluster of 10 projects were very successful and have demonstrated
that improvements in NWP for Polar Regions are possible and have
significantly increased our understanding on how to improve models and
the use of data in the Arctic, as well as providing a much deeper
understanding of the physical processes involved. This cluster has lead
naturally to the proposals for follow on Polar Prediction Project (PPP).
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Contd.,
African Monsoon Multifrequency Anaylsis (AMMA) in the area of
prediction of hazardous weather.
 The two most fruitful examples of the collaboration were THORPEX
support for additional radiosondes for AMMA and the evaluation of
AMMA observational data through Observing System Experiments and
also co-operative efforts between AMMA and the THORPEX African
Regional Committee, in particular for the development of a Forecasters
Handbook for High Impact Weather
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Contd.,
The Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) programme has been
initiated in conjunction with the WCRP and a Project Office
established at NCAR.
 The YOTC Science Plan has been completed, and the YOTC
Implementation Plan is a living web document (www.ucar.edu/yotc).
 The website includes links to data, science items, documents, meeting
reports, and general information. In addition a YOTC Task Force to focus
on understanding and modelling the MJO has been set up.
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Contd.,
Comprehensive Reports on the effectiveness of data targeting
(adaptive observations) in NWP have been completed.
 The impact of observations on short range forecasts is found to be very
similar across major NWP centres. The largest impacts are now from
AMSU-A, satellite winds etc., although the global radiosonde network
and data from aircraft remain very important.
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Contd.,
Data Assimilation research has made major contributions to the
understanding and development of the observing system through
the use of operational data and THORPEX field experiments.

New data assimilation systems including 4D-VAR with different options
of inferring the background errors and new EnKF systems are being
contrasted and compared.
Predictability and Dynamical Processes studies have contributed to
the preparation and evaluation of international field experiments
and raised the awareness in the academic PDP community of the
research objectives of THORPEX
 Promoted and encouraged research using the THORPEX data sets
(notably TIGGE, T-PARC, YOTC),
 Supported the development of research projects dedicated to THORPEX
PDP research, established a linkage to WGNE on the issue of model
uncertainties and promoted THORPEX through the organisation of
summer schools.
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New Initiatives
Polar Prediction Research (PPP) Project
 to improve understanding of the impact of polar processes on polar
weather, the assimilation of data in Polar Regions, and the prediction of
high impact weather over Polar Regions.
 The new project will provide a framework for cooperative international
research and development efforts to improve high impact weather,
climate, and environmental prediction capabilities for the Polar Regions.
The implementation plan is well advanced and EC-64 (June 2012)
approved the initiative, including setting up a project office and
establishing a trust fund for its support.
 Note: An invitation to contribute to the Trust for the PPP will be sent soon
to all countries by the WMO Secretary General
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Contd.,
Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project
 The main goal of the WWRP/THORPEX-WCRP joint research project is
to improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to
seasonal timescale, and promote its uptake by operational centres and
exploitation by the applications community.
 Specific attention will be paid to the risk of extreme weather, including
tropical cyclones, droughts, floods, heat waves and the waxing and
waning of monsoon precipitation.
 The new project will provide a framework for cooperative international
research and development efforts between WWRP, THORPEX and
WCRP to improve the accuracy, spatial and temporal information and
applications of prediction in the sub-seasonal to seasonal time range in
close cooperation with centres that provide such services operationally.
 All countries will be invited to contribute to the S2S Trust Fund by the
Secretary General in the near future.
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Contd.,

Three major International Symposia on THORPEX science,
workshops and summer schools have been organised at which
numerous papers related to THORPEX topics were presented along
with comprehensive poster sessions.

Three GEO tasks (in climate, ensemble-prediction and high
impact weather in Africa) are now the main elements of the GEO
weather prediction activity.
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Some recent activities of the
Working Groups
 DAOS
 PDP
 GIFS-TIGGE
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Targeted Observations
1. Plan to submit a thinned
version to BAMS during 2013.
2. Analysis of WSR 2010/11
cases
3. WSR 2011/12 cases
Summary of targeting
 Clear benefits of targeted observations for TC
forecasts.
 In study with 4D-Var assimilation & ECMWF model,
little impact seen for mid-latitude systems (2011 WSR).
 Targeting’s future:
 Global observational network design: use targeting
strategies to adaptively select / thin satellite data for
assimilation?
 Potential to adapt targeting concepts to work in concert with
rapidly adaptable observational resources, e.g., cloud-drift
winds from rapid-scan imagery. But: need quick, efficient
algorithms.
DAOS Messages for THORPEX
•Research satellites/instruments can be valuable as operational
data providers, but can fail suddenly without backups (e.g.
ENVISAT, AMSR-E are recent examples)
• Satellite data contributions to the GOS by nations increasing
(e.g. FY-3, Oceansat-2), to hopefully help fill future gaps
•New privately funded initiatives to provide satellite data
• Impact of satellite data in medium range NWP is dominant in
many advanced DA systems
•Research underway to extend/improve use of advanced IR
sounders (cloudy rads, use PCs, more data over land etc.,
•The .)
Post- THORPEX
 The DAOS WG recommends that it becomes a WG of
the WWRP at the end of the THORPEX Programme
and is therefore funded by the general WMO budget
rather than a Trust Fund.
 It would become, in effect, the Data Assimilation
Group of the WMO.
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European PANDOWAE PDP Initative
German PDP-oriented research group (funded by DFG, 2009-2015)
All (7) PhD projects from first phase completed (now PostDocs at
ECMWF, DWD, ETH, U Karlsruhe, U Mainz)
3 “joint papers” (coordinated by PhD student and PI) on overarching
aspects of PDP research (Rossby wave trains, diabatic processes,
ensembles and adaptivity)
About 20 publications so far.
Mean monsoon precipitation and errors in July
Observed
Wet Monsoon
Problem spans all
systems and
timescales
ERA-Interim
D+5 T399
D+12–18 T399
Coupled T159
Uncoupled T159
Uncoupled T2047
mmday-1
20
15
10
7
5
3
2
1
20
10
5
2
-2
-5
-10
-20
Milton, Rodwell, Willett, Brown
 Atmospheric Rivers: Top 10 winter floods in central UK
• Top 10 floods in
Winter Maximum
Series (WMS) over
1970–2010.
• Persistent ARs
located over basin in
these floods.
• ARs have
consistent location
and orientation.
Data source: 20th
Century / ECMWF
ERA-Interim
reanalyses.
Lavers et al., 2011 GRL
T-NAWDEX
Planning towards a cross-Atlantic aircraft field experiment in
2015
Scientific objective
Investigate diabatic processes (e.g., aspects of transport,
microphysics and radiation involved in formation of negative PV
anomalies at tropopause level) in sequence of North Atlantic weather
systems potentially involving ET, extratropical cyclones, WCB &
blocking
Aircraft
Two G-V from both sides of the Atlantic (HIAPER and HALO), shorter
range aircraft from UK, …
Partners (as of Oct 2012)
US (Pat Harr and colleagues), UK (John Methven and DIAMET
community), Germany (DLR, U Munich, DWD), Switzerland (ETH), …
Submission of US proposal to participate expected in Jan 2013
TIGGE Archive
 Data volume now exceeds 600 terabytes, >1TB added every
week.
 Around 100 users access TIGGE data every month; >1600 users
registered at ECMWF.
100000
150
10000
120
1000
90
100
60
10
30
1
0
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar- Apr-11 May- Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12
11
11
Month
Number of Users (Count)
Volume (GB)
2011/2012 TIGGE Archive Usage (All Portals)
Vol Accessed (GB)
Vol Delivered (GB)
# Active Users
TIGGE-LAM:
TIGGE for limited-area models
The TIGGE-LAM panel, chaired by Tiziana Paccagnella works closely with
the GIFS-TIGGE working group to supports the coordinated development of
Limited Area Model Ensemble Prediction Systems.
 The panel facilitates the interoperability of the different modelling
systems and coordinates the archiving of limited-area ensemble
forecasts – the three TIGGE archive centres have agreed to host a
sub-set of high priority LAM EPS data.
 With the increasing emphasis on convective-scale ensembles,
TIGGE-LAM works closely with the WWRP Mesoscale Weather
Forecasting Research group, as well as GIFS-TIGGE.
 The TIGGE LAM Panel is now structured into regional sub-groups to
facilitate the focus on regional activities, with links to THORPEX
regional committees.
 More information is available from the TIGGE-LAM website
http://www.smr.arpa.emr.it/tiggelam/.
 GEOWOW (GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and
Water) is a 3-year EU-funded FP7 project started September
2011.
 The Weather component (WP4) includes:
 improving access to TIGGE data at ECMWF;
 archiving of TIGGE-LAM data;
 developing and demonstrating forecast products.
 Weather participants: ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France, KIT
 But will involve other TIGGE partners in planning development &
demonstration of products in conjunction with SWFDP.
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
TC ensemble products
 Now developing multi-model version of TC track /
strike probability products, based on CXML data
exchange.
 To be delivered to SWFDP regional centres starting
this autumn.
Piers
Buchanan,
Met Office
Near-real time severe weather products
 Survey results confirm
need for near real-time
version of severe
weather products
developed by MRI
 Joint proposal being
developed by Met
Office, JMA, MRI.
 Agreement sought to
enable real-time JMA
data to be used in
addition to ECMWF,
NCEP & Met Office.
TIGGE Research focus
Following the successful establishment of the TIGGE dataset, the
main focus of the GIFS-TIGGE working group has shifted towards
research on ensemble forecasting.
Initial emphasis:
 Calibration and combination methods
 Bias correction, downscaling
 Multi-model ensembles; reforecasts
Development of probabilistic forecast products – GIFS
development
 Tropical cyclones (CXML-based)
 Gridded data: heavy precipitation; strong winds
Focus has been on downstream application of ensembles, rather
than on improving EPSs
Evolution of TIGGE & GIFS
TIGGE
development
Time
 GIFS-TIGGE should also be a forum to focus on R&D directed at
improving our EPS systems, to help us develop a “virtuous
circle”.
 Have introduced a section of the WG meeting for discussing
ensemble initial conditions, stochastic physics & other aspects of
improving our EPSs.
 Also need to strengthen interest in ensemble verification & links
with convective-scale EPS and the new sub-seasonal to seasonal
group.
Summary
 Since October 2006, the TIGGE archive has been accumulating
regular ensemble forecasts from leading global NWP centres.
 Progress is being made towards starting to deliver “GIFS
products” to the SWFDP regional websites, first for tropical
cyclone tracks and later focused on heavy rain and strong winds.
We will collaborate with SWFDP on evaluating the products.
 Looking forward to the post-THORPEX period, we
recommend the merger of GIFS-TIGGE and the PDP WGs to
establish a Predictability and Ensemble group of the WWRP,
which would oversee the TIGGE archive, and with a scientific
focus on dynamics, ensemble forecasting & predictability.
TIGGE website: http://tigge.ecmwf.int
THORPEX – the future
 The Programme comes to an end in Dec 2014
 ICSC 9 asked the THORPEX EC to look at possible
future arrangements.
 A paper on this subject, prepared by the EC, was
presented to the recent ICSC 10 meeting.
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Option A
 The THORPEX Programme formally ends in December 2014 but
the DAOS WG continues within the framework of the WWRP assuming there is sufficient funding from the WWRP core funds
to support it.
 The RCs are disbanded.
The Trust Fund is closed and the IPO wound up.
WWRP is invited to consider the scope for including further
activities e.g. PDP WG/TIGGE through rationalisation of WGs,
meeting frequency, size etc and/or attracting additional funding.
 Continuing cost: 30K CHF /annum (from the WWRP budget)
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Option B
 The THORPEX Programme is extended for a further 5-10 years
and is restructured. The focus on high impact weather is
sharpened. All three WGs remain.
 The RCs continue as at present.
The Trust Fund remains open for contributions and the IPO
continues to the extent that it can be supported by the Trust Fund.
 Continuing Cost: 300K CHF/annum (from the Trust Fund)
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Option C
 A new 10 year programme (Environmental Prediction Initiative) is
established jointly, where appropriate, with the WCRP with a focus on
improving the predictability of high impact weather from hours to a
season (seamless prediction) and within the framework of a changing
climate. New projects are introduced; two such projects have already
been identified (sub-seasonal to seasonal and polar prediction). Other
examples might include QPF, the water cycle, etc. These projects may
subsume some of the current activities carried out by the TIGGE and
PDP WGs and the Regional Committees. In this Option the DAOS WG
is transferred to the WWRP.
 A new Trust Fund is opened and a Programme Office set up.
 The RCs are formally disbanded but could be replaced by new regional
initiatives and/or projects.
35
Contd.,
 The rationale for Option C would be: marshalling global scientific
resources to respond more effectively to the critical challenges in
predicting weather from hours to a season for the benefit of the
international community and to meet socio-economic needs.
 The EC preferred option is Option C. The EC Chair was
requested to implement a series of agreed steps to promote wider
discussion of this and other options.
 At ICSC 10 these options were discussed and the general
response of members noted. There was clear support for option
C but with significant variations.
36
Contd.,
 Specifically, the action agreed at ICSC 10 is to consider
development of a new project focussed on HIW on timescales
from hours to 14 days ahead. A brief 2 page description of this
project is being prepared for distribution to ICSC members for
comment.
 A Town Hall meeting at the January AMS meeting is planned to
discuss the proposals followed by a planning meeting in late Jan.
or early Feb. 2013 hosted by Germany.
 It is then intended to form a task team and employ a consultant to
formulate detailed project plans.
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Thank you for your attention!
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