Transcript THORPEX report to the CAS Management Group WWRP Alan Dickinson ICSC Chair September 2010

THORPEX report to the CAS
Management Group
WWRP
Alan Dickinson ICSC Chair
September 2010
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THORPEX Organisational Structure
International Core Steering
Committee (ICSC)
Regional Committees
Africa
Asia
Europe
North America
Southern Hemisphere
Predictability and Dynamical
Processes Working Group
Global Interactive
Forecasting System –
THORPEX Interactive
Grand Global Ensemble
Working Group
DAOS WG
PDP WG
GIFS-TIGGE WG
WWRP
Data Assimilation and
Observing Strategies Working
Group
September 2010
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WWRP
THORPEX Working Groups
Since 31 January 2010, the three THORPEX Working
Groups have met:
 GIFS TIGGE Working Group Eighth Meeting; WMO,
Geneva (22-24 February 2010)
 THORPEX ICSC PDP Working Group Third Meeting;
ETH, Zurich (5-7 July 2010) – this meeting was
followed by a Workshop on “Diagnosis of Model
Errors” (7-9 July 2010)
 THORPEX ICSC DAOS Working Group Third
Meeting; University of Québec at Montréal (UQAM)
Montréal (8-9 July 2010)
September 2010
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GIFS developments – collaboration with the
Steering Group for Severe Weather
Demonstration Projects
As a result of the joint meeting, it was agreed to
formalize links between SWFDP SG and GIFS-TIGGE
WG, with cross-representation at WG/SG level and
appropriate representation of GIFS-TIGGE WG on
regional implementation groups
WWRP
It was also clear from the joint session that the GIFSTIGGE Working Group’s main role in FDPs is to provide
support to FDPs organised by CBS and the WWRP for
example rather than establish and implement FDPs
which are more appropriately carried out on the regional
or national level.
September 2010
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GIFS developments – collaboration with the
Steering Group for Severe Weather
Demonstration Projects
The meeting agreed on a possible timeframe for
introducing the GIFS-TIGGE products into the SWFDP,
as follows:
(a) For Tropical Cyclone data sets – 1 year;
(b)
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For rainfall and wind – 2 to 3 years, depending on
the availability of observational data sets.
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Impact of targeted observations
WWRP
There is a consensus that extra-tropical targeted data are about 2-3 times
more valuable than the same number of observations deployed randomly.
This should be stated.
Results from the adjoint-based observation impact calculations can be
used to explain why we cannot consistently get large impacts from a few
targeted observations.
Targeted observations aimed at improving forecasts of tropical cyclone
track have provided demonstrable overall positive impact although the
results vary somewhat from model to model The impact of targeted
observations aimed at improving forecasts of extra-tropical storms is less
clear to date.
Targeting for longer-range forecasts is an interesting research topic, but
results are not mature enough to make an authoritative statement. However,
the review paper will state the current position on this topic. Broader-scale
regime-based targeting seems the most promising approach.
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PDP Working Group Activities
Collaboration with the WGNE formalized
PDP summer school in Banff (10 to 15 July, 2011)
PDP and WGNE Workshop recommendations
WWRP
Indian Summer Monsoon
Cyclonic systems
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Regional Committees
WWRP
It is planned to review the progress with the THORPEX
Africa Implementation Plan at the WMO Regional
Association I meeting that will take place in Morocco in
November 2010.
The 7th Asian Regional Committee (ARC) meeting was
held just after the 3rd Asian THORPEX Scientific
Workshop, in Seopogi, Jeju Island, Republic of Korea on
June 5 2010.
The European THORPEX Research and
Implementations Plans have been published; next
meeting of ERC – May 2011
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Regional Committees
WWRP
North America Regional Committee (NARC) – Mexico
(May, 2010)
Provision of an overview of the accomplishments
and future directions of the International THORPEX
programme
Expansion of NARC membership to include several
meteorological groups in Mexico and representatives
from Central America and the Caribbean
Provision of ann overview of the priorities and
challenges to improve high impact weather in Mexico,
Central America and the Caribbean
An activity report from the SHRC will become available
after the SHRC’s next meeting.
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WWRP
GEO
THORPEX continues to support the development of the weather element of
the GEOSS. There are three main areas of activity
TIGGE and the development of a Global Interactive Forecast System
(GIFS) (WE-06-03)
THORPEX Africa (WE-09-01b)
Towards Enhanced Climate, Weather, Water and Environmental
Prediction (CL-09-01a); in this Task the main activity at present is
YOTC; however, it is hoped that the planned sub-seasonal to seasonal
prediction and polar projects will be included in due course.
These three Tasks represent the most significant GEO weather activities.
Efforts continue to be made working through GEO to improve funding levels
and resources for these initiatives. Most recently a European Union FP7
Call has been issued which refers directly to the further development of
TIGGE and the GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI). Plans are being
made to form a consortium to respond to this Call to secure significant
external funding for future TIGGE activities
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ECMWF Database
May ‘08 – Apr ’10
(relevant not just to YOTC)
Research Focus
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MJO & Convectively Coupled
Equatorial Waves
ITCZ, Easterly Waves,TCs
Trop-ExtraTrop Interaction
Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability
Diurnal Cycle
International
Collaboration and
Integration of
Models and
Observations
The golden age of Earth observations
A-TRAIN constellation of satellites “CloudSat” and “CALIPSO” for YOTC
WWRP
This ‘observing
system’ views the
atmosphere in a
variety of ways –
each providing
different information
in a coincident way
YOTC archives, analysis,
dissemination and visualization
WWRP
ECMWF high resolution analyses, forecasts and
diagnostics are on-line for the whole YOTC period
NCEP analyses, forecasts and diagnostics are being
made available
NASA GEOS-5 contributions on-line.
The NASA has provided funding to enable the
Goddard Giovanni system to be adapted for YOTC
satellite data analysis dissemination and visualization
and the YOTC Giovanni system will be available in about
one year.
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WORKSHOPS
Polar Prediction (Oslo, 6 to 8 October, 2010)
It is expected that the main outcome of the Oslo workshop will
be the design of a WMO THORPEX Polar Prediction Research
Project that provides an efficient framework for co-operative
international research and development efforts to improve
operational weather and environmental prediction capabilities for
the Polar Regions and facilitate climate predictions up to a
season.
WWRP
Seasonal Prediction (Exeter, 1 to 3 December, 2010)
To identify high-priority research topics and demonstration
projects and to develop recommendations for the establishment
of an international research project.
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WORKING GROUP MEMBERSHIP
All three THORPEX Working have been reviewing
WWRP
requirements for a turnover of the members, new coChairs and additional members.
The CAS Management should develop membership
rules for the WWRP/JSC and the WWRP Working
Groups which could be adopted by the THORPEX ICSC.
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MID-TERM REVIEW
The THORPEX Working Groups and Regional
WWRP
Committees have been asked to submit short summaries
of recent achievements, current challenges and future
plans by the end of November 2010. The IPO will then
prepare a summary paper for review by the THORPEX
community and eventually the ICSC and WWRPJSC in
2011.
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