Transcript THORPEX Update Jim Caughey THORPEX IPO WMO Geneva GIFS-TIGGE Working Group 9th Meeting WMO, Geneva 31 August – 2 September 2011 1

THORPEX Update
Jim Caughey
THORPEX IPO
WMO Geneva
GIFS-TIGGE
Working Group
9th Meeting
WMO, Geneva
31 August – 2 September 2011
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Working Group – Highlights
DAOS WG
The main objectives of the DAOS-WG are:
 Address data assimilation issues including the
development of improved understanding of the
sources and growth of errors in analyses and
forecasts
 Promote research activities that lead to the better use
of observations for global NWP and an understanding
of their value
 Provide input and guidance for THORPEX regional
campaigns for the deployment of observations to
achieve scientific objectives
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DAOS Contd.
Statement on Impact of Targeted Observations
 The DAOS-WG has considered carefully the topic of adaptive
observations, and has formulated a summary of the current status
of their impact on NWP, as well as recommendations for future
research. Comprehensive paper prepared for ICSC 9 and
summary for BAMS.
Intercomparison of Observation Impacts
 The DAOS-WG promoted an intercomparison experiment to
directly compare the impact of all assimilated observations on
short-range forecast errors in different forecast systems using the
adjoint technique. Despite differences in the assimilation
algorithms and forecast models employed, the impacts of the
major observation types were found to be similar in each forecast
system in a global sense
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DAOS – contd.
ConcordIASI observation impact experiments
 ConcordIASI has provided unprecedented data coverage over the
Antarctic. Dropsondes were launched out of 13 super-pressure balloons
(50 from each balloon), and their impact on forecasts and analyses from
several operational centres have been (and continue to be) evaluated.
 Adjoint calculations show that the dropsondes have a generally positive
impact on the 24-h forecast error norm, both over Antarctica and
globally. Assimilation of the gondola data was achieved at a few centres
and also was found to be positive, in particular in a data impact study at
DWD.
 The data have shown there are problems with the models near the
surface e.g. they are not cold enough over land. It was proposed that
impact experiments using the ConcordIASI data would be carried out at
a number of centres and results compared with the aim of improving the
assimilation of observations in polar regions.
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PDP Working Group
Field experiments
 The three related THORPEX experiments T-PARC, TCS08 and
Winter T-PARC were aimed at increasing understanding of how
and why
 (a) Typhoons form (or do not form) in the West-Pacific TCS-08)
(b) Typhoons or ex-Typhoon vortices interact with mid-latitude jet
streams (T-PARC) – ET etc.,
and
 (c) supplemental targeted observations reduce or fail-to-reduce
forecast error (TCS08, T-PARC and Winter T-PARC).
The major findings in the area of dynamical atmospheric
processes and the ability of models to predict observed
processes and associated recommendations are being written up.
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PDP WG Contd.
A few key topics have been identified, to which the PDP WG will
pay particular attention to during the coming years. Each year,
one of these topics will be selected for (co-)organizing a specific
workshop (e.g., with WGNE).
 Climatologies of specific weather phenomena (frequency, intensity) –
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Heini Wernli & members from Africa / China / SHEM
Organized tropical convection (YOTC, T-PARC) – Mitch Moncrieff, Pat
Harr & member from Asia
Ensemble-based data assimilation and forecasting, including stochastic
parameterizations – Craig Bishop, Istvan Szunyogh, Olivier Talagrand
Atmospheric dynamics and diabatic processes (e.g., T-NAWDEX,
HYMEX, Rossby wave dynamics, tropical-extratropical interactions, polar
meteorology, role of surface fluxes) – John Methven, Andreas
Dörnbrack, Heini Wernli & member from SHEM, polar expert
Sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction (dynamics and physics of coupled
systems) – Thomas Jung, Adam Scaife, Ben Kirtman & others
New diagnostic techniques to understand the origin of model errors –
Thomas Jung, Andy Brown
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Workshops
PDP Workshop on “diagnosis of model errors” (Zurich, July,
2010)
 The results presented in the workshop showed (i) state-of-the-art
models still suffer from substantial errors and (ii) that diagnostic
work has the potential to inform model developers about model
problems at the process level and therefore provide information
necessary to guide model development.
 Despite substantial improvements in diagnostic techniques in
recent years it is crucial to further support research to advance
diagnostic techniques to the point where they become of direct
use for model development
 Model error diagnosis has been identified as one area where
universities and research institution can make substantial
contributions to the further development of models, thereby
supporting the relatively small community of model developers.
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PDP Workshop Contd.
It was decided to start joint projects to look more closely at two
phenomena:
 Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM): The ISM is a large-scale
phenomenon which is poorly handled by most models. The
monsoon problem is an ideal test case to demonstrate that the
use of different diagnostic techniques can provide information that
leads to model improvements.
 Cyclonic systems (CS): What makes CS an attractive choice is
that physics-dynamics interactions are crucial in CS and that CS
are a major source of severe weather. Work is required to
understand the influence of resolution and the relative importance
of different processes for cyclone prediction
 Both themes are ideal to link with the climate community and
should be investigated both in NWP and climate models
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Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction
The Report from the Workshop on “Sub-seasonal to Seasonal
Prediction” (Met Office, Exeter 1 to 3 December 2010) has been
published to the web
(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/reco
mmendations_final.pdf
 The major Workshop recommendation was that a Project for subseasonal prediction research should be established
 Panel members should include representatives from WWRPTHORPEX, WCRP, CBS and CCl and their relevant programme
bodies.
 The first task for the Panel should be the preparation of an
Implementation Plan which is consistent with the contents of the
Workshop Report and Recommendations.
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Sub-seasonal contd.
The Implementation Plan should give high priority to:
 Sponsorship of a few international research activities
 The establishment of collaboration and co-ordination between
operational centres undertaking sub-seasonal prediction to:
 ensure, where possible, consistency between operational
approaches to enable the production of data bases of
operational sub-seasonal predictions to support the
application of standard verification procedures and a wideranging programme of research
 Facilitating the wide-spread research use of the data collected for
the CHFP (and its associate projects), TIGGE and YOTC for
research
 The establishment of a series of regular Workshops on subseasonal prediction
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Sub-seasonal contd.
 the WWRP/SERA Working Group and the WCRP should outline
plans for a number of regional projects.
It is proposed that a small Planning Group, supported by a
WMO consultant, is established to prepare an
Implementation Plan for a “Sub-seasonal Prediction
Research Project”.
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 Polar Prediction Project
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The Report from the Workshop on “Improvement of Weather
and Environmental Prediction in Polar Regions” (Met No Oslo, 6
to 8 October 2010) has been published to the web
(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/reco
mmendations_final.pdf
 The outcome of this workshop was the establishment of a basis
for an IPY legacy project which is intended to provide a
framework for cooperative international research and
development efforts to improve high impact weather, climate, and
environment
 Three forecast prediction ranges are of interest:
short-term regional forecasts (one hour to 48 hours)
medium-range forecasts (one day to two weeks)
sub-seasonal to one season forecasts
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Polar Prediction Contd.,
 it was clear from the workshop discussions on “gaps” that many
of the problems are common to all prediction systems whatever
the range – notably, problems with the parameterization of
atmospheric, oceanic, and land-surface physical processes.
 Such a legacy project would aid the coordination of current and
future polar prediction activities and increase awareness of the
need for new resources for polar prediction research
 it should be based on a few NWP internationally coordinated
polar initiatives (new or existing).
 Based on the outcome of the Oslo workshop and the feedback
from EC-PORS and potential partners, a Joint Polar Prediction
Project, similar to the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC)
project, supported by WWRP, WCRP, and THORPEX should be
established
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Polar Prediction Contd.,
 This project will require a Steering Group (consisting of members
with scientific and operational expertise and representatives of
the user community). The first task for the Steering Group
(supported by a WMO consultant) will be the preparation of an
Implementation Plan which includes estimates of resources and a
strategy for the coordination of polar prediction research.
 If the plan is well received by the community, and if the YOTC
model is followed, a Project Office should be established at an
institution with a major interest in polar prediction.
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Year of Tropical Convection
YOTC (www.ucar.edu/yotc) is focused on the fundamental
problems of understanding mechanisms for and the effects of
organized tropical convection, which is vital to improving weather
and climate predictions.
 YOTC is now established with a small project office at NCAR.
 It is a joint initiative between WWRP/THORPEX and WCRP, and
was highlighted in a series of papers provided for the WCC-3 and
in forthcoming publications in BAMS.
 Research spans weather and climate on timescales from diurnal
out to seasonal. Close links are maintained with other activities
such as the GEWEX (GCSS).
 An important legacy of YOTC will be data sets collected from May
2008 to April 2010 (the “year”), which include high resolution
analyses and forecasts from ECMWF, NCEP and GMAO and
satellite data available through NASA Giovanni.
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YOTC Contd.,
 It is hoped that these datasets will provide a good foundation for
improving understanding of convective processes and their
representation in weather and climate models
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The main YOTC themes are:
the MJO and other convectively coupled waves (a YOTC MJO
Task Force has been established) ,
easterly waves and tropical cyclones,
seamless prediction and hierarchical modelling,
Tropical / extra-tropical interaction,
and
monsoon intra-seasonal variability and AMY.
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YOTC Contd.,
First YOTC International Science Symposium
 The first WCRP-WWRP/THORPEX International Science
Symposium for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) was held
in Beijing from 16-19 May 2011.
 The meeting format included theme-based sessions spanning the
YOTC science focus areas, with 20 invited talks, 5 poster
sessions (with over 80 posters) and 5 plenary discussion
sessions. Additional details regarding the Symposium, including
the agenda and presentations can be found on the YOTC
website
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THORPEX Regional Committees
Europe
 Revised European Plan published on the THORPEX website
during 2010
 Highly successful Workshop held at Karlsruhe, Germany from 2427 May 2011
 The aim of this meeting was to review progress in European THORPEX
research, to strengthen existing collaborations and initiate new
collaborations within the European THORPEX community, to identify
further necessary revisions to the THORPEX European Plan and to
discuss European involvement within new THORPEX initiatives.
Themes:
 PDP
 DAOS
 SERA
 TIGGE
 Field Programs (e.g. IPY Cluster, T-NAWDEX, Concordiasi, HYMEX) ,
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African Regional Committee
 Important presentation made to the RA I meeting held in
Marrakech during Nov. 2010 – to help engage support from
African PRs
 Progress being made with the implementation of the high impact
weather information system for Africa – to facilitate research of
chosen important case studies and associated SERA studies.
 Main constraint to progress is lack of resources
 Meeting planned for July 2011 to review progress and agree
future strategy
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Regional Committees Contd.,
Asia
The 7th meeting of the Asian Regional Committee was hosted
during June 2010 in Jeju Island, Korea and followed the 3rd Asian
THORPEX Science Symposium.
 The Third Asian THORPEX Science Symposium was held in Jeju Island, Republic
of Korea, from 2 to 4 June 2010. There were five sessions in the meeting:
 (1) Opening and Invited talk
 (2) Overview of THORPEX related activities
 (3) Predictability, Observation system experiments, Observation field campaigns
 (4) Ensembles, TIGGE, Data assimilation
 (5) Dynamic processes and mechanisms, Applications
 There were 30 oral presentations and 10 posters.
 About 70 researchers attended the meeting and the participants came from
Japan, Korea, Russia, France and China.
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Regional Committees Contd.,
The ARC meeting included,
 Updates on national activities in Korea, China, Japan and Russia.
 Formation of 2 WGs to focus on GIFS-TIGGE and NWP
activities.
 Agreement to hold an Asian THORPEX Science Symposium
about every 2 years.
North America
 NARC meeting held during May 2010 in Morelos, Mexico.
 Covered the many contributions to field experiments, TIGGE,
SERA studies etc.,
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Regional Committees Contd.,
Southern Hemisphere
 http://thorpex.cptec.inpe.br/ and THORPEX website
 Science and Implementation Plans can be downloaded
 Benefits of THORPEX in terms of scientific interaction and
collaboration amongst SH scientists continue
 But even with a relatively modest plan progress is slow
 Need to leverage opportunities for THORPEX-related activities,
including components in projects such as SWFDP, and
collaboration in the context of funded research
 Enhance links with overall WGs.
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Recent developments
 Retirement of David Burridge – Tetsuo Nakazawa
becomes IPO manager
 Trust Fund remains significantly undersubscribed.
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