Transcript World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Report Gilbert Brunet WWRP/JSC Chair THORPEX 9th Session of ICSC, WMO, Geneva, 21-22 September 2011

World Weather Research
Programme (WWRP) Report
Gilbert Brunet
WWRP/JSC Chair
THORPEX 9th Session of ICSC, WMO, Geneva, 21-22 September 2011
Highlights of WWRP
•
The WWRP has promoted successfully important end-to-end integrated
research, development and demonstration projects to advance
understanding of high-impact weather processes, improve forecasting
technique, establishing new databases, facilitate the transfer of research
results into operational practice and better utilization of forecast products
by end users.
These are the
– THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE);
– Beijing 08, Summer Olympic Games, China;
– Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW V10)
project, Canada;
BAMS 2010
Highlights of WWRP
– International field campaign for tropical cyclones and targeting ATReC (Atlantic
THORPEX Regional Campaign), THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (TPARC) and the USA Winter Storms Reconnaissance (WSR) flights;
– Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC);
– Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS);
– The Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning System during the Shanghai World
EXPO, China in 2010;
– Establishment of three monsoon data centers (in Colorado State University,
USA; in Nagoya University, Japan; and in Beijing Climate Center, CMA, China);
Highlights of WWRP
• International Polar Year (IPY) THORPEX;
1-D, blowing snow model
snow
1-D, multi-layer snow
model
Sea ice
ocean
• Mesoscale Alpine Project Demonstration-Phase (MAP D-Phase),
Switzerland;
• European Coordinated Experiments 2007 including the Convective and
Orographically induced Precipitation Study (COPS). Showing the way to
Integrated Mesoscale Research Environment (IMRE);
European Coordinated Experiments 2007
Convective and Orographicallyinduced Precipitation Study
(COPS), WWRP) Research and
Development Project (RDP)
Period: 01.06. – 31.08.2007
Wulfmeyer et al. BAMS 2008
General Observations Period
(GOP) Period: full year of 2007
(Crewell et al. MetZet 2008, submitted)
Transport and Chemical
Conversion in Convective
Systems (COPS-TRACKS)
Period: 16.07. – 02.08.2007
Atmospheric Radiation
Measurement (ARM) Program
Mobile Facility (AMF)
Period: 01.04. – 31.12.2007
European THORPEX Regional
Campaign 2007 (ETReC 2007)
Period: 01.07. – 01.08.2007
EUMETSAT special satellite
operation modes and data
Period: 01.06. – 31.08.2007
(Aoshima et al. MetZet 2008,
accepted)
Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and
Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the
Alpine region (D-PHASE),
WWRP Forecast and Demonstration Project (FDP)
Period: 01.06. – 30.11.2007
(Rotach et al. BAMS 2008, submitted)
4th International Verification Methods Workshop
(Finnish Meteorological Institute; June 2009)
Tutorial
• 26 students
– 24 countries; many from SWFDP
countries
• 3 days
• Lectures and hands-on (took tools
home)
• Group projects - presented at
workshop
Workshop
• ~100 participants
• Topics: Ensembles, Users, Spatial
methods, Tools, Uncertainty, Weather
warning verification, Evaluation of
seasonal and climate predictions
Highlights of WWRP
• The WWRP has established new organisational
structures and has promoted activities to
support WMO Strategic thrust by:
– establishing the WWRP Societal and Economic
Research and Applications (SERA) Working Group to
advance the science of the social and economic
application of weather-related information and
services in collaboration with ICSU Integrated
Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) Institute;
– participating in the EC-Research Task Team report on
the “Challenges and opportunities in research to
enable improved products and new services in climate,
weather, water and environment.”;
• WAY FORWARD: i) Interdisciplinary Summer
School Program: a first step toward informing
the next generation of research scientists the
excitement and opportunities of Earth-system
prediction and ii) WWRP Earth-system
Prediction Conference in 2013.
WWRP - General
•
The completion of the first Strategic Plan for the
Implementation of WMO’s World Weather Research
Programme (WWRP): 2009 – 2017 (WMO/TD-No. 1505).
•
The WWRP strategic plan integrates WMO Member activities
in THORPEX, tropical meteorology, mesoscale weather
forecasting, nowcasting, verification and societal and
economic applications with those of partners in global and
regional forecast research and Earth observation. The plan
maintains and reinforces the traditional strong links with GAW,
the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and other
WMO activities.
•
Implementation activities outlined in the first Strategic Plan
will address cross cutting activities at the interface of
nowcating-mesoscale, mesoscale-global and weather-climate
prediction research, research-operations that are related to
the delivery of a weather and climate services; in particular,
ensemble weather prediction systems, tropical convection,
polar prediction; and sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction.
•
Legacy of THORPEX.
•
New WWRP organizational structure due for the next CAS
congress.
WWRP - General
• Implementation of the
CAS-XV decision to
establish a new 10member WWRP Joint
Scientific Committee
(WWRP/JSC) to
oversee the scientific
progress and
development of the
WWRP.
JSC
JSC Committee Members
•
•
Chairman of the Joint Scientific Committee for OPAG-WWRP
Gilbert BRUNET, Environment Canada, Dorval, Québec, [email protected]
AFIESIMAMA Ernest
[email protected]
DOLE Randy
[email protected]
DUCROCQ Veronique
[email protected]
GOLDING Brian
[email protected]
MILLER Martin
[email protected]
LEE Dong-Kyou
[email protected]
SAULO Celeste
[email protected]
SMITH Neville
[email protected]
PARSONS David
[email protected]
2010-11 WWRP meetings
• 5th International Verification Methods Workshop
(Melbourne, Australia, 1-7 December)
• Meeting of WG SERA
(Beijing, China 31 October, 2 November 2011)
• WCRP Open Science Conference
(Denver, USA, 24-28 October)
Parallel Sessions:
Session B1: Prediction from Subseasonal to Multi-decadal Scales (conveners: D.
Anderson, G. Brunet, B. Kirtman, I.-S. Kang)
• 9th THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE WG meeting
(Geneva, WMO Headquarters, 31 August - 2 September 2011)
• Fourth Meeting of the THORPEX DAOS Working Group
(Exeter, UK, 27-28 June 2011)
• Fourth meeting of the THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes
Working Group
(ECMWF, UK, 21 June 2011)
2010-11 WWRP meetings
Meetings relevant to THORPEX are
• Workshop on "Representing model uncertainty and error in numerical weather and climate
prediction models"
(ECMWF, UK, 20-24 June 2011);
• THORPEX European Regional meeting
(Karlsruhe, Germany, 24-27 May);
• YOTC International Science Symposium and 8th AMY International Workshop
(Beijing, China, 16-19 May 2011)
• Fourth meeting of the WWRP JSC
(Geneva, WMO Headquarters, 21-24 February) ;
• Joint WWRP-THORPEX / World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) workshop on “Subseasonal to seasonal prediction”, United Kingdom in 2010;
• WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Workshop, “Improvement of Weather and Environmental
Prediction in Polar Regions”, Norway in 2010.
World Meteorological Congress
WWRP
Polar Prediction project – “Congress acknowledged the success of the ten
projects of the International Polar Year THORPEX cluster, and supported the CAS
recommendation that, as a legacy of the IPY, a THORPEX Polar Research project
be established to improe the understanding of the impact of high impact weather
over Polar Regions. Congress also emphasized the need to have an adequate
observational and telecommunication network for the Polar Regions in order to
provide the relevant high impact weather services for the region. “
“Congress strongly urged all those concerned to ensure that such a Polar
Prediction Research project is established in support of, inter alia, the Global
Framework for Climate Services. Furthermore, the EC-PORS, at its Second
Session in Hobart in October 2010, agreed to the concept of a major decadal
initiative to develop a Polar Prediction System (Global Integrated Polar Prediction
System - GIPPS). Congress recognized the importance of effective coordination
between these various initiatives, and invited Members to contribute as
appropriate. “
Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction – “Congress noted that the JSCs of the
WWRP and the JSC for WCRP and WWRP/THORPEX ICSC set up an
appropriate collaborative structure to carry out and international research initiative
on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. This initiative should be closely
coordinated with the CBS infrastructure for long-range forecasting and with the
future developments of climate service delivery and the Global Framework for
Climate Services. “
“Congress was pleased to note that the WWRP-THORPEX / WCRP workshop on
“Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction” (Exeter, December 2010) had
recommended the establishment of a Panel/Project for Sub-seasonal Prediction
Research and Applications - Panel members being drawn from WWRPTHORPEX, WCRP, CBS, CCl, JCOMM, CHy, CAS and CAgM and their relevant
programme bodies. “
Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction
The Report from the Workshop on “Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction”
(Met Office, Exeter 1 to 3 December 2010) has been published to the web
(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/recomme
ndations_final.pdf
• The major Workshop recommendation was that a Project for sub-seasonal
to seasonal prediction research should be established
• Planing Group should include representatives from WWRP-THORPEX,
WCRP, CBS and CCl and their relevant programme bodies.
• The first task for the Planning Group should be the preparation of an
Implementation Plan , which is consistent with the contents of the
Workshop Report and Recommendations.
9
Sub-seasonal contd.
The Implementation Plan should give high priority to:
• Sponsorship of a few international research activities
• The establishment of collaboration and co-ordination between
operational centres undertaking sub-seasonal prediction to:
– ensure, where possible, consistency between operational approaches
to enable the production of data bases of operational sub-seasonal
predictions to support the application of standard verification
procedures and a wide-ranging programme of research
• Facilitating the wide-spread research use of the data collected for the
CHFP - Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (and its associate
projects), TIGGE and YOTC for research
• The establishment of a series of regular Workshops on sub-seasonal to
seasonal prediction
10
Sub-seasonal contd.
• the WWRP/SERA Working Group and the WCRP should outline plans for a
number of regional projects.
It is proposed that a Planning Group, supported by a WMO consultant
with an equal number of members from both WWRP and WCRP, is
established to prepare an Implementation Plan for a “Sub-seasonal to
Seasonal Prediction Research Project”.
• Drs. Frederic Vitart (ECMWF) and Andrew Robertson (IRI) are the coChairs of the Planning Group and should be approved at this meeting.
11
Polar Prediction Project
• The Report from the Workshop on “Improvement of Weather and
Environmental Prediction in Polar Regions” (Met No Oslo, 6 to 8 October
2010) has been published to the web
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/Polar_NWP_
Meeting_Outcomes_FINAL.pdf
• The outcome of this workshop was the establishment of a basis for an IPY
legacy project which is intended to provide a framework for cooperative
international research and development efforts to improve high impact
weather, climate, and environment
• Three forecast prediction ranges are of interest:
short-term regional forecasts (one hour to 48 hours)
medium-range forecasts (one day to two weeks)
sub-seasonal to one season forecasts
12
Polar Prediction Contd.,
• It was clear from the workshop discussions on “gaps” that many of the
problems are common to all prediction systems (including climate)
whatever the range – notably, problems with the parameterization of
atmospheric, oceanic, and land-surface physical processes.
• Such a legacy project would aid the coordination of current and future
polar prediction activities and increase awareness of the need for new
resources for polar prediction research
• It should be based on a few NWP internationally coordinated polar
initiatives (new or existing).
• Based on the outcome of the Oslo workshop and the feedback from ECPORS and potential partners, a Polar Prediction Project, similar to the Year
of Tropical Convection (YOTC) project, supported by WWRP and THORPEX
and well coordinated with the Polar Project in WCRP, should be
established
13
Polar Prediction Contd.,
• This project will require a Steering Group (consisting of members with
scientific and operational expertise and representatives of the user
community). The first task for the Steering Group (supported by a WMO
consultant) will be the preparation of an Implementation Plan, which
includes estimates of resources and a strategy for the coordination of
polar prediction research.
• Thomas Jung is a Chair of the Steering Group and should be approved in
this meeting.
• If the plan is well received by the community, and if the YOTC model is
followed, a Project Office should be established at an institution with a
major interest in polar prediction.
14
• Thank you!
• Merci!
• Arigato!