Transcript Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (1-90 days) A Seamless Approach WWRP Gilbert Brunet WWRP/JSC Chair Environment Canada WWRP/THORPEX, WCRP Kick off meeting on Subseasonal to Seasonal.

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (1-90 days) A Seamless Approach
WWRP
Gilbert Brunet
WWRP/JSC Chair
Environment Canada
WWRP/THORPEX, WCRP Kick off meeting on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction
(Geneva, 2-3 December 2011)
An Earth-System
Prediction Initiative
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An Earth-System Prediction Initiative
for the Twenty-First Century
(Shapiro et al.)
Addressing the Complexity of the
Earth System (Nobre et al.)
Toward a New Generation of World
Climate Research and Computing
Facilities (Shukla et al.)
Collaboration of the Weather and
Climate Communities to Advance
Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction
(G. Brunet, M. Shapiro, B. Hoskins,
Mitch Moncrieff, Randal Dole, G.
Kiladis, B. Kirtman, A. Lorenc, R.
Morss, S. Polavarapu, D. Rogers, J.
Schaake and J. Shukla
WWRP
Centres participating in the WMO Long Range
Forecast Verification System
http://www.bom.gov.au/wmo/lrfvs/index.html
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WMO Commission for Basic System prediction time range definitions
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MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING:
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EXTENDED-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING:
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BEYOND 10 DAYS AND UP TO 30 DAYS DESCRIPTION OF WEATHER PARAMETERS, USUALLY AVERAGED AND EXPRESSED AS A
DEPARTURE FROM CLIMATE VALUES FOR THAT PERIOD.
LONG-RANGE FORECASTING:
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BEYOND 72 HOURS AND UP TO 240 HOURS DESCRIPTION OF WEATHER PARAMETERS
FROM 30 DAYS UP TO TWO YEARS
CLIMATE FORECASTING
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BEYOND TWO YEARS
:
Predicting the Low Frequency Variability
• The low frequency variability (AO, PNA, Atlantic blockings, …) controls
significantly the distribution of high-impact weather (like the Atlantic storm
track and equatorial westerly duct)
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Baroclinic variability (80%)
Medium-range forecasting the
500hPa height with the ECMWF
deterministic prediction system
Low frequency variability
(dim. ~ 12, 20%)
Extended-range forecasting of the
NAO with the Canadian GEM
Monthly ensemble prediction System
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Collaboration of the Weather and Climate Communities to
Advance Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction:
Research Issues
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The multi-scale organisation of tropical convection and its
two-way interaction with the global circulation;
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Data assimilation for coupled models as a prediction and
validation tool for weather and climate research;
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Seamless weather/climate prediction with Multi-model
Ensemble Prediction Systems (MEPSs);
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Utilization of sub-seasonal predictions for social and
economic benefits.
Forecasting-system improvement at ECMWF
Updated from Simmons & Hollingsworth (2002)
Acknowledgements to A. Simmons
Historical trend
%
Historical re-forecast project
trend using re-analyses
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%
North America Z500 RMSE for the control experiments
and latest upgrades of the MSC global analysis-forecast system
(January and February 2007)
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Acknowledgements
to S. Laroche
WWRP
Data assimilation for coupled models as a prediction and
validation tool for weather and climate research
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Promote research towards the development of a composite data
assimilation system, applying different assimilation steps to different
scales (weather to climate time-scales) and components (atmosphere,
land, ocean, atmospheric composition) of the total Earth system model;
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Promote the need to test climate models in a deterministic prediction
mode, as started within Transpose-AMIP. The seasonal prediction time
frame provides a valuable opportunity to do this;
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Promote the use of advanced data assimilation methodologies for
parameter estimation, both in weather and climate models, through close
collaboration with model developers to interpret assimilation results;
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Promote interdisciplinary research on data assimilation methods
appropriate for the next generation of re-analysis projects aimed at
developing historical records for climate studies.
Seamless weather/climate prediction with Ensemble Prediction
Systems(EPSs)
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Terms of reference for collaboration between WCRP
CLIVAR Climate-system Historical Forecast Project
(CHFP) and the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global
Ensemble (TIGGE) must be establish for experimentation
and data sharing for sub-seasonal to seasonal historical
forecasts ( weeks to season) including the required
infrastructure.
The requirements for both ensemble prediction methods and
greatly increased spatial resolution imply substantial future
requirements for computational power and for data storage
and delivery capacity.
Development and use of ensemble based modeling methods
in order to improve probabilistic estimates of the likelihood
of high-impact events.
MJO connection to Canadian surface air
temperature: high-impact weather?
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Lagged winter SAT anomaly in Canada
Significant warm anomaly in central and eastern Canada 1-2 pentads after
MJO phase 3
Utilization of Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Predictions
for Social and Economic Development
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A need for closer ties between weather and climate research:
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 Understanding how information at the weather/climate interface,
including uncertainty, connects with decision-making
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There is also a great need for much easier access to forecast data by the
user community. These need to be available in special user-oriented
products. How to achieve this service?
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The post-processing techniques that are needed by many users may
require an archive of past forecasts (e.g. for water cycle applications).
Some user applications require an archive of re-forecasts from fixed
models for periods as long as 20 years or more.
Water Operations Aided by
Reductions in Weather/Climate
Forecast Uncertainty
•Sales/earnings forecasting
•Water storage replenishment strategies
•“Flexible” water production and delivery
•Storage requirements needs assessment
•Storage logistics planning
•Regional Water mngt.
mngt. planning
•Stockpile planning
•Seasonal demand forecasts
•Delivery rate setting
•Hydo regional water mngt.
mngt. Strategy
•Compliance projections estimates
Seasons
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Forecast Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Forecast
Months
Years
Forecast
Forecast
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
8 – 14 Days
•Customer billing service
•Water supply forecasting
•snowmelt
•Maintenance scheduling
•Inventory management
•Pipeline throughput mngt.
mngt.
•Pump load determination
6 – 10 Days
Days
Hours
Minutes
•Water rate setting
•Boil water “ orders
•Demand forecasting
•Shortage/drought management
•“Intelligent” infrastructure
•Dispatch management
•Hazard response
•Utility network
management
•Hydo supply management
•Pipeline laying logistics
Forecast
Forecast Lead
Lead Time
Time
•Infrastructure design
•Regional infrastructure plan
•New storage capacity plans
•Mitigation strategy design
•Plant/ infrastructure siting
•Water policy setting
World Meteorological
Organization
2011 Congress
World Meteorological
Congress
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Polar Prediction project – “Congress acknowledged the success of the ten
projects of the International Polar Year THORPEX cluster, and supported the CAS
recommendation that, as a legacy of the IPY, a THORPEX Polar Research project
be established to improve the understanding of the impact of high impact weather
over Polar Regions. Congress also emphasized the need to have an adequate
observational and telecommunication network for the Polar Regions in order to
provide the relevant high impact weather services for the region. “
“Congress strongly urged all those concerned to ensure that such a Polar
Prediction Research project is established in support of, inter alia, the Global
Framework for Climate Services. Furthermore, the EC-PORS, at its Second
Session in Hobart in October 2010, agreed to the concept of a major decadal
initiative to develop a Polar Prediction System (Global Integrated Polar Prediction
System - GIPPS). Congress recognized the importance of effective coordination
between these various initiatives, and invited Members to contribute as
appropriate. “
Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction – “Congress noted that the JSCs of the
WWRP and the JSC for WCRP and WWRP/THORPEX ICSC set up an
appropriate collaborative structure to carry out and international research initiative
on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. This initiative should be closely
coordinated with the CBS infrastructure for long-range forecasting and with the
future developments of climate service delivery and the Global Framework for
Climate Services. “
“Congress was pleased to note that the WWRP-THORPEX / WCRP workshop on
“Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction” (Exeter, December 2010) had
recommended the establishment of a Panel/Project for Sub-seasonal Prediction
Research and Applications - Panel members being drawn from WWRPTHORPEX, WCRP, CBS, CCl, JCOMM, CHy, CAS and CAgM and their relevant
programme bodies. “
Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction
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The Report from the Workshop on “Sub-seasonal to Seasonal
Prediction” (Met Office, Exeter 1 to 3 December 2010) has been
published to the web
(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/reco
mmendations_final.pdf
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The major Workshop recommendation was that a Project for subseasonal to seasonal prediction research should be established
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Planning Group should include representatives from WWRPTHORPEX, WCRP, CBS and CCl and their relevant programme
bodies.
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The first task for the Planning Group should be the preparation of
an Implementation Plan , which is consistent with the contents of
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the Workshop Report and Recommendations.
Sub-seasonal contd.
The Implementation Plan should give high priority to:
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Sponsorship of a few international research activities
The establishment of collaboration and co-ordination between
operational centres undertaking sub-seasonal prediction to:
 ensure, where possible, consistency between operational
approaches to enable the production of data bases of
operational sub-seasonal predictions to support the application
of standard verification procedures and a wide-ranging
programme of research
Facilitating the wide-spread research use of the data collected for
the CHFP - Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (and its
associate projects), TIGGE and YOTC for research
The establishment of a series of regular Workshops on subseasonal to seasonal prediction
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Sub-seasonal to Seasonal
Prediction Initiative Planning
Group
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Planning Group
Co-Chair 1 Frédéric Vitart ECMWF (WWRP)
Co-Chair 2 Andrew Robertson IRI (WCRP)
Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP
Harry Hendon CAWCR CSIRO/BoM
Yuhei Takaya JMA
Hai Lin EC
Alberto Arribas UKMO
June-Yi Lee IPRC
Duane Waliser NASA
Hyun-Kyung Kim KMA
Ben Kirtman IGES/COLA
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Liaison Group
Carolina Vera WCRP JSC Liaison
Richard Graham UKMO CBS12
Jean-Pierre Ceron Meteo-France CCL
Barbara Brown SERA/Verification
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Consultant
David Anderson
WWRP
Thank You
Merci