Transcript Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Research: A WWRP/THOPEX and WCRP Initiative Gilbert Brunet WWRP/JSC Chair CAS MG meeting, 15-17 November 2011 Madrid, Spain.

Subseasonal to Seasonal
Prediction Research: A
WWRP/THOPEX and WCRP
Initiative
Gilbert Brunet
WWRP/JSC Chair
CAS MG meeting, 15-17 November 2011
Madrid, Spain
Centres participating in the WMO Long Range Forecast
Verification System
http://www.bom.gov.au/wmo/lrfvs/index.html
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WMO Commission for Basic System prediction time range definitions
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MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING:
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EXTENDED-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING:
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BEYOND 10 DAYS AND UP TO 30 DAYS DESCRIPTION OF WEATHER PARAMETERS, USUALLY AVERAGED AND EXPRESSED AS A DEPARTURE FROM CLIMATE
VALUES FOR THAT PERIOD.
LONG-RANGE FORECASTING:
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BEYOND 72 HOURS AND UP TO 240 HOURS DESCRIPTION OF WEATHER PARAMETERS
FROM 30 DAYS UP TO TWO YEARS
:
CLIMATE FORECASTING
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BEYOND TWO YEARS
MJO connection to Canadian surface air temperature: a
significant impact
Lagged winter SAT anomaly in Canada
Significant warm anomaly in central and eastern Canada 1-2 pentads after
MJO phase 3
Predicting the Low Frequency Variability
Medium-range forecasting
the 500hPa height with the
ECMWF deterministic
prediction system
Extended-range forecasting of
the NAO with the Canadian GEM
Monthly ensemble prediction
System
Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the forecast skill
of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Hai Lin and Gilbert Brunet (GRL, 2011)
World Meteorological
Organization
2011 Congress
World Meteorological
Congress
WWRP
Polar Prediction project – “Congress acknowledged the success of the ten
projects of the International Polar Year THORPEX cluster, and supported the CAS
recommendation that, as a legacy of the IPY, a THORPEX Polar Research project
be established to improve the understanding of the impact of high impact weather
over Polar Regions. Congress also emphasized the need to have an adequate
observational and telecommunication network for the Polar Regions in order to
provide the relevant high impact weather services for the region. “
“Congress strongly urged all those concerned to ensure that such a Polar
Prediction Research project is established in support of, inter alia, the Global
Framework for Climate Services. Furthermore, the EC-PORS, at its Second
Session in Hobart in October 2010, agreed to the concept of a major decadal
initiative to develop a Polar Prediction System (Global Integrated Polar Prediction
System - GIPPS). Congress recognized the importance of effective coordination
between these various initiatives, and invited Members to contribute as
appropriate. “
Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction – “Congress noted that the JSCs of the
WWRP and the JSC for WCRP and WWRP/THORPEX ICSC set up an
appropriate collaborative structure to carry out and international research initiative
on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. This initiative should be closely
coordinated with the CBS infrastructure for long-range forecasting and with the
future developments of climate service delivery and the Global Framework for
Climate Services. “
“Congress was pleased to note that the WWRP-THORPEX / WCRP workshop on
“Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction” (Exeter, December 2010) had
recommended the establishment of a Panel/Project for Sub-seasonal Prediction
Research and Applications - Panel members being drawn from WWRPTHORPEX, WCRP, CBS, CCl, JCOMM, CHy, CAS and CAgM and their relevant
programme bodies. “
Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction
The Report from the Workshop on “Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction”
(Met Office, Exeter 1 to 3 December 2010) has been published to the web
(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/recomme
ndations_final.pdf;
• The major Workshop recommendation was that a Project for sub-seasonal
to seasonal prediction research should be established;
• Planning Group should include representatives from WWRP-THORPEX,
WCRP, CBS and CCl and their relevant programme bodies;
• The first task for the Planning Group should be the preparation of an
Implementation Plan , which is consistent with the contents of the
Workshop Report and Recommendations.
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Sub-seasonal contd.
The Implementation Plan should give high priority to:
• Sponsorship of a few international research activities;
• The establishment of collaboration and co-ordination between
operational centres undertaking sub-seasonal prediction to:
– ensure, where possible, consistency between operational approaches
to enable the production of data bases of operational sub-seasonal
predictions to support the application of standard verification
procedures and a wide-ranging programme of research
• Facilitating the wide-spread research use of the data collected for the
CHFP - Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (and its associate
projects), TIGGE and YOTC for research;
• The establishment of a series of regular Workshops on sub-seasonal to
seasonal prediction.
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Sub-seasonal contd.
• the WWRP/SERA Working Group and the WCRP
should outline plans for a number of regional
projects;
• Drs. Frederic Vitart (ECMWF) and Andrew Robertson
(IRI) are the co-Chairs of the Planning Group and
should be approved at this meeting;
• WWRP/THORPEX/WCRP Sub-seasonal to seasonal
implementation kick-off meeting.
WMO headquarters, 2-3 December 2011.
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Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction
Initiative Planning Group
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Planning Group
Co-Chair 1 Frédéric Vitart ECMWF (WWRP)
Co-Chair 2 Andrew Robertson IRI (WCRP)
Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP
Harry Hendon CAWCR CSIRO/BoM
Yuhei Takaya JMA
Hai Lin EC
Alberto Arribas UKMO
June-Yi Lee IPRC
Duane Waliser NASA
Hyun-Kyung Kim KMA
Ben Kirtman IGES/COLA
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Liaison Group
Carolina Vera WCRP JSC Liaison
Richard Graham UKMO CBS12
Jean-Pierre Ceron Meteo-France CCL
Barbara Brown SERA/Verification
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Consultant
David Anderson
• Thank you!
• Merci!