Current Status and Future Directions

David Parsons, David Burridge, and Jim Caughey THORPEX International Project Office World Meteorological Organization

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Acknowledgements

 Jim Hansen, Pam Johnson, Nathalie Tournier, Istvan Szunyogh and all those on the organizing committee for their work on the TTISS under very difficult conditions.

 The chairs, co-chairs, members of the THORPEX Working Groups and Regional Committee and the scientist involved in THORPEX research

“ TH e O bserving System R esearch and P redictability Ex periment”

THORPEX is a 10-year international research and development programme under the World Weather Research Program (WWRP) THORPEX was established in 2003 by the 14th World Meteorological Congress. The implementation phase began in January 2005.

THORPEX is the 1st major international collaboration between the research and operational communities to improve global numerical weather prediction since the GARP took place in the 1960s and early 1970s. THORPEX is designed to conduct basic and applied research to: i) accelerate improvements in the accuracy of one-day to two-week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of society, the economy and the environment ii) increase the effectiveness of advanced warnings of high impact weather globally.

GEOSS 

Science Plan peer-reviewed (Shapiro and Thorpe 2004)

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Implementation Plan 2005-2015 approved

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International Project Office funded through a Trust Fund

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Two previous Science Symposiums (Montreal,2004; Landshutt, 2006)

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Three scientific working groups and five regional committees

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Governed by a THORPEX International Core Steering Committee and Executive Committee under the WMO’s Commission for Atmospheric Sciences

A Few Highlights

1.

TIGGE and Ensemble Prediction

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What is TIGGE and what is available now?

 TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) consists of operational global ensemble forecasts from ten centres:  BoM (Australia), CMA (China), CPTEC (Brazil), ECMWF (Europe), JMA (Japan), KMA (Korea), Meteo-France, MSC (Canada), NCEP (USA), Met Office (UK)  Archives start between October 2006 and January 2008 (depending on provider)  Pressure level data and all usual surface fields (e.g. T2m, U10m, MSLP, rainfall) -

available from all providers

 More “exotic” fields (e.g. CAPE, sunshine duration, etc…)

available from some providers only, but improving regularly

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TIGGE objectives (agreed in March 2005)

 Enhance international collaboration between operational centres and universities on ensemble prediction for severe weather  Enable science done by THORPEX working groups and THORPEX scientists to:  Develop theory and practice of multi-model ensembles  Examine the feasibility of interactive ensemble forecast systems responding dynamically to changing uncertainty  Develop the concept of a Global Interactive Forecasting System (GIFS)

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Why is TIGGE important?

 Accelerate shift of weather research community toward ensemble prediction (appropriate for a non-linear atmosphere)

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TIGGE current users 223 users

USA, 41 Algeria, 1 Australia, 5 Brazil, 7 Bulgaria, 1 UK, 22 Turkey, 1 Canada, 4 China, 37 Colombia, 1 Thailand, 5 Switzerland, 3 Sweden, 1 Spain, 7 South Africa, 1 Slovenija, 1 Russia, 1 Poland, 1 New Zealand, 2 Lithuania, 1 Netherlands, 5 Italy, 9 Japan, 13 Kenya, 1 Korea, 9 Iceland, 1 India, 11 Ireland, 1 Croatia, 1 Cuba, 1 Finland, 1 France, 7 Germany, 16 Ghana, 1 Greece, 2

Monthly Active Users at ECMWF

(three or more data downloads) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 De c 10 Ja n 11 Fe b 11 Ma r 11 Apr 11 Ma y 11 Ju n 11 Ju l-11 Au g 11 Se p 11 Oc t-11 No v 11 De c 11 Ja n 12 Fe b 12 Ma r 12 Apr 12 Ma y 12 Ju n 12 Ju l-12 Au g 12 Se p 12

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Why is TIGGE important?

 Accelerate shift of weather research community toward ensemble prediction (appropriate for a non linear atmosphere)  A challenging benchmark that has led to attempts to improve individual ensembles  Potential for improved prediction from this multi model ensemble may lead to a single forecast system for forecast (GIFS-Global Interactive Forecast System)

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CONSIDERATIONS FOR GIFS DEVELOPMENT

 A major consideration is the provision, to all countries of viable opportunities to develop at small cost (particularly in developing countries) efficient severe weather warning systems focusing on their national needs without becoming overly dependent of one big provider  This shift of paradigm from bilateral cooperation (with a strong partner and a weak partner who needs to adjust to any change decided by the strong) to a multi-lateral cooperation, with the existence of a variety of products of similar quality and standard formats will give developing countries both a sense of independence and of ownership/control of their own 'customized‘ end-products

2. THORPEX Cluster of Experiments During the International Polar Year (IPY)

The IPY-THORPEX Cluster 10 individual projects (see WMO Bulletin Oct. 2007) Polar years: (1882-1883), (1932-1933), (1957-1958)

The International Polar Year, 2007-2008

is an international programme of coordinated, interdisciplinary scientific research and observations in the Earth's polar regions: The objectives of the IPY-THORPEX Cluster proposal are: – Explore use of satellite data and optimised observations to improve high impact weather forecasts (form a Polar Trec and/or provide additional observations in real time to the WMO GTS) – Better understand physical/dynamical processes in polar regions – Achieve a better understanding of small scale weather phenomena – Utilise improved forecasts to the benefit of society, the economy and the environment – Utilise of TIGGE for polar prediction

The WWRP THORPEX IPY cluster WWRP-THORPEX IPY Cluster

(T.E. Nordeng, coordinator)

ARCMIP

Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (K. Detholf, Alfred-Wegener Institute)

STAR

Storm Studies of the Arctic (J. Hanesiak, U Manitoba)

GFDex

Greenland Flow Distortion experiment (I. Renfrew, U. East Anglia)

TAWEPI

Thorpex Arctic Weather and Environmental Prediction Initiative (Ayrton Zadra, Environment Canada)

Norwegian IPY-THORPEX

(J.E. Kristjansson, U Oslo)

GREENEX

(H. Olafsson, Iceland & DLR)

Impacts of surfaces fluxes

on severe Arctic storms, climate change and coastal orographic processes (W. Perrie, BIO Canada))

T-PARC

THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (D. Parsons, NCAR)

Greenland Jets

(A. Dombrack, DLR)

Concordiasi

Use of IASI data (F. Rabier, Meteo-France)

THORPEX IPY plays brings the weather research community into studies of a region clearly impacted by climate change

3. Regional (field) campaigns to improve understanding and prediction of specific types of high impact weather

Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign - (A-TREC) 2003 European THORPEX Regional Campaign - (E-TREC) 2007 THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC 2008 and Winter T-PARC 2009) THORPEX N. Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (T-NAWDEX 2012) THORPEX Participation in Hydrology of the Mediterranean Experiment (HYMEX)

TY Sinlaku

(TCS-033 / TD15W) • • • 28 Missions 8 Structure – P-3, C-130, DOTSTAR 6 Targeting – Falcon 14 ET – P-3, C-130, Falcon • • • • • • • • • • • • Coverage 09/0030 – 09/1045 09/2100 – 10/1225 10/2043 – 11/1828 12/1138 – 12/2318 13/2330 – 14/0555 15/2135 – 16/0205 16/0500 – 16/0800 16/2044 –17/1115 17/2224 – 18/0720 18/2235 – 19/0725 20/0156 – 20/1206 20/2205 – 21/0205 19

 Regional campaigns serve as a focal point for community efforts to advance understanding and prediction of high-impact weather.  Regional campaigns reflect that high impact weather prediction needs due vary across the globe.

 Regional campaigns have formed the foundation of observing strategies studies, but have shifted to process studies and dynamical research.

4. Advances in the understanding of how to design the “optimal” global observing system

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Value of targeted data (1)

Value of extra-tropical targeted data has been found to be positive but small, on average

– Observations taken in sensitive areas have more value than observations deployed randomly – Past experiments do not provide evidence of big impact obtained from just a few observations (when averaged over a large sample of cases) – There are limitations due to the current assimilation methodologies (not yet fully flow dependent) – Sensitive areas characterization does not appear to be the first order problem 22

Combined Use of ADJ and OSEs (Gelaro

et al.

, 2008) …ADJ applied to

various

OSE members to examine how the mix of observations influences their impacts Removal of AMSUA results in large increase in AIRS (and other) impacts Removal of AIRS results in significant increase in AMSUA impact Removal of raobs results in significant increase in AMSUA, aircraft and other impacts (but not AIRS)

Radiosonde (RS) RH Bias correction: RESULTS Comparison with GPS TCWV RS-GPS: BIAS

UNCORRECTED RS CORRECTED RS

Agusti-Panareda et al

Olivier Bock

A Few Challenges

Collaboration with WCRP on removing common barriers to improved prediction and on seasonal prediction

Evolution of errors across timescales Temperature U wind

Improved MJO in ECMWF model

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Extending the benefits of improved prediction to the developing world

THORPEX-Africa: Programme to Mitigate the Effects of Natural Disasters for the Benefit of the African Society.

Aïda

Diongue Niang*, Ernest Afiesimama, Arona Diedhiou, Andre Kamga Foamouhoue, Benjamin Lamptey, Ousmane Ndiaye, * Direction de la Meteorologie Nationale Senegal E-mail: [email protected]

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Strong Link between Climate/Meterological conditions and some Diseases Meningitis Malaria Dust events Low humidit y High humidit y Rainfall Temperature: factor of limitation

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Forecast Demonstration Projects (GIFS-TIGGE)

Begin with tropical cyclones (Asia then Africa with the SWFDP) and then heavy rainfall

Funding Limited

For academic community in many nations For developing world projects For Intl Project Office as the programme has and is growing, but staffing has not

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Do we need a shift in priorities?

 Perhaps we need less emphasis on observing strategies/systems (e.g., targeting) or a shift in the focus of targeting research  More emphasis on reducing model error and improving model parameterizations (how will this be done?)  More emphasis on societal aspects/impacts and end to-end demonstration of THORPEX research advances